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House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik is expected to join the House Judiciary Committee in next week’s hearing focused on the crime crisis in New York City, Fox News Digital has learned.

The House Judiciary Committee is holding a field hearing in New York City to ‘examine how Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s pro-crime, anti-victim policies have led to an increase in violent crime and a dangerous community for New York City residents.’

The hearing, ‘Victims of Violent Crime in Manhattan,’ is scheduled for 9 a.m. Monday at the Javits Federal Building.

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, asked for Stefanik to join the panel for Monday’s hearing.

Stefanik, who represents New York’s 21st Congressional District, is not a member of the House Judiciary Committee, but Republicans are expected to let her participate in the panel’s highly anticipated hearing in lower Manhattan.

‘New York City is the epicenter of the crime crisis,’ Stefanik told Fox News Digital. She blamed ‘far-left radical district attorneys like Alvin Bragg’ for ‘causing this crime crisis.’

Stefanik felt strongly about participating in the hearing, saying ‘victims need a voice’ and stressing that victims of violent crime come from ‘all political backgrounds.’

‘New Yorkers fear for their safety,’ Stefanik said, pointing to the ‘revolving door of criminals released back into the communities’ who are ‘wreaking havoc’ on the city.

‘I intend to make sure New Yorkers are represented at this hearing,’ she said.

Jose Alba, a bodega clerk charged with murder after acting in self-defense, will be one of the witnesses at the hearing.

Bragg took over as district attorney in January 2022 from Cyrus Vance. The crime wave has intensified under Bragg’s watch.

‘He is refusing to go after criminals but is prosecuting Joe Biden’s top opponent,’ Stefanik said of his investigation into former President Trump.

Trump last week pleaded not guilty to 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in New York. The charges, which are related to hush-money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign, came out of Bragg’s investigation.

Bragg alleged Trump ‘repeatedly and fraudulently falsified New York business records to conceal criminal conduct that hid damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election.’

Trump has slammed the DA’s investigation and the indictment as ‘political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history.’

‘New Yorkers are smart,’ Stefanik said. ‘They want their DA to prosecute violent criminals.’

As for Democrats, Stefanik said, ‘They continue to put their heads in the sand.

‘Their policies have caused the crime crisis in New York. Republicans stand strongly with police, with law enforcement and with victims.’

Trump was back in New York City Thursday for a deposition before New York State Attorney General Letitia James. James, a Democrat, has been conducting a civil investigation into the Trump Organization since she took office in January 2019.

James brought a lawsuit against Trump in September alleging he and his company misled banks and others about the value of his assets. She also alleged Trump ‘inflated his net worth by billions of dollars’ and said his children helped him to do so.

When asked for comment, Stefanik told Fox News Digital that James is ‘part of the far-left radicals.’

‘It is just another chapter of the political witch hunt going back to 2016,’ she said.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

EXCLUSIVE — A group of Republican attorneys general is demanding that Democrats retract their suggestion that the Biden administration should defy a court order aimed at stopping the distribution of the abortion pill mifepristone.

Last week, a federal judge in Texas signed an injunction that directed the FDA to halt its more than 20-year-old approval of mifepristone while a lawsuit challenging its safety and approval works its way through court.

Democrats were incensed by the ruling, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., who said that the Biden administration should ‘ignore’ it. She said ‘deeply partisan’ judges have ‘engaged in unprecedented and dramatic erosion of the legitimacy of the courts.’

‘The interesting thing when it comes to a ruling is that it relies on enforcement,’ Ocasio-Cortez said on CNN. ‘And it is up to the Biden administration to enforce, to choose whether or not to enforce a ruling.’

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., issued a similar statement that called on President Biden and the FDA to ignore the ruling that he said has no ‘basis in law’ but is ‘rooted in conservatives’ dangerous and undemocratic takeover of our country’s institutions.’

Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said on CNN last week, ‘What you saw — by that one judge, in that one court, in that one state — that’s not America.’

Nine Republican AGs say those statements are so egregious, the Democrats need to retract them ‘or resign.’

Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey, along with eight other Republican AGs who filed briefs in support of the ruling, sent a letter to those outspoken Democrats that scolded them for their statements, which they said are ‘akin to a call to overthrow the Constitution.’

‘This is the most anti-rule of law administration we’ve had in recent history. The fact that Becerra is even considering this means he should resign immediately,’ Bailey told Fox News Digital in a statement.

‘Expressing mere disagreement with a court order, as all attorneys have done, is nothing like your call for the FDA not to comply with a court order. The difference between the two is enormous. For a party to defy a court order simply because one does not like it is an attack on our very system of government and the rule of law,’ the AGs stated in the letter exclusively reviewed by Fox News Digital.

‘You ought to know better,’ the AGs wrote. ‘Like each of us, you have sworn an oath to uphold the Constitution. Your anti-Constitution rhetoric is more than just wrong. It also erodes the culture of the rule of law that has taken centuries to build.

‘Other nations have fallen into tyranny quickly when those who should have been upholding the rule of law chose instead to lead mobs against it. Your rash, inflammatory, anti-Constitution statements are unacceptable.

‘You must retract or resign.’

On Wednesday, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans ruled 2-1 to keep mifepristone available only to be dispensed up to seven weeks, not 10, and not by mail, a decision that partially overturned the Texas ruling.

On Thursday, the Justice Department weighed in by asking the Supreme Court to issue a stay on the entire injunction issued by the Texas judge.

‘The Justice Department strongly disagrees with the Fifth Circuit’s decision in Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. FDA to deny, in part, our request for a stay pending appeal,’ Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement. ‘We will be seeking emergency relief from the Supreme Court to defend the FDA’s scientific judgment and protect Americans’ access to safe and effective reproductive care.’

Representatives for AOC, Wyden and Becerra did not immediately respond to Fox New Digital’s request for comment on the letter.

Fox News Digital’s Adam Sabes contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A Missouri Republican state lawmaker on Tuesday said children as young as 12 years old should be able to get married as he defended a proposed bill banning gender-affirming care for minors.

Sen. Mike Moon, a Republican from Ash Grove, sat before a panel on Tuesday to defend and debate a bill that would ban all gender transition procedures for anyone under the age of 18.

The bill passed the Missouri Senate in March and is now before the House.

During the questioning, Rep. Peter Meredith, a Democrat, called Moon out for his stance on marriage of 12-year-olds if parental consent were given.

‘You voted ‘no’ on making it illegal for kids to be married to adults at the age of 12 if their parents consented to it,’ Meredith said to Moon. ‘You said, actually, that should be the law because it’s the parents’ right and the kid’s right to decide what’s best for them. To be raped by an adult.’

Moon did not deny supporting the measure. In fact, he defended it, to a degree.

‘Do you know any kids who have been married at age 12?’ he asked Meredith.

‘I don’t need to,’ Meredith said.

‘I do,’ Moon said. ‘And guess what? They’re still married.’

Video of the senator making the statements made the rounds on social media, catching the eye of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who tweeted about them on Wednesday.

‘Meanwhile, in Missouri: State Senator Mike Moon is advocating for 12-year-old kids to be married off to adults,’ Newsom tweeted.

Moon retweeted Newsom’s post with a statement of his own.

‘To be clear, I did not advocate for minors to be married off to adults,’ he tweeted, directing followers to a video he made to help clear the air. ‘Keep your California politics out of Missouri. Democrats will say whatever they can to make sure they can keep mutilating children.’

A spokesman for Moon spoke to Fox News Digital on Thursday, who said the one-hour committee meeting had strict time constraints and the senator did not have time to clear up his comments before Meredith moved on to the next.

Had he been given the time, the spokesman explained, Moon would have clarified he did not support 12-year-old children getting married to adults.

Moon does support, though, 12-year-olds getting married to people closer in age, like another 12-year-old.

During the debate, Moon said he knew kids who were 12 years old when they got married. According to the spokesman, one of the 12-year-olds got pregnant, and the parents encouraged them to get married.

The two children got married but were raised in two different states. Once they became adults, the spokesman said, they got back together, and they have been happily married ever since.

When asked how old the married couple is today, the spokesman said they are in their 50s.

Moon also addressed the issue on YouTube on Thursday.

‘If there’s an instance in which an adult has recently married a minor in this state of Missouri, I’ll make it a priority to remove and prohibit adults from marrying minors,’ he said. ‘Furthermore, if a person is raped, no matter the age, the rapist should be punished to the fullest extent of the law.’

The question referred to a state law that looked to raise the age that minors can get married from 15 to 17, which Moon voted against.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

EXCLUSIVE: The ex-husband of California Democrat Senate candidate Rep. Katie Porter said he does ‘not recant’ his domestic abuse allegations against the congresswoman after her campaign said that he did.

The allegations against Porter include claims that she dumped hot potatoes on her then-husband’s head and smashed a glass that led to him being cut by shards of glass. Porter has separately faced accusations of running a toxic, emotionally abusive workplace by former staffers.

According to divorce documents received by Fox News Digital, Porter and her ex-husband, Matt Hoffman, both filed domestic violence restraining orders against each other after an April 2013 altercation at the home they shared while legally separated.

Hoffman alleged that Porter hit him ‘in the arm, causing a large bruise,’ dumped boiling potatoes on his head and ridiculed him as ‘too dumb’ to have a cellphone. He said that the congresswoman ‘waited all day, then called the police’ and ‘made false allegations’ against him 11 hours after a confrontation while brushing their teeth the day the police were called to their residence.

Police arrested Hoffman on battery charges at the residence after the confrontation in April 2013. Porter requested the temporary restraining order the next day.

Documents obtained by Fox News Digital state that Hoffman regretted making the allegations against Porter in a court-ordered child custody evaluation, but it doesn’t specify whether his regret was due to a lack of veracity or another reason.

Porter’s campaign told Fox News Digital that Hoffman had ‘retracted’ his statement, but Hoffman said he did ‘not recant’ his allegations against the congresswoman.

Hoffman said he did not ‘recall stating I regretted making the allegations but, again, it’s been a long time.’

‘I do not recant the allegations,’ Hoffman added.

Porter’s spokesperson, Lindsay Reilly, told Fox News Digital that on ‘the morning of the hearing on Porter’s request for a temporary restraining order following documented violence by her then-husband, her then-husband’s lawyer filed a reciprocal request for protection.’

‘This common defensive tactic is designed to intimidate a victim. Her then-husband later admitted, as evidenced by the attached document, that ‘he regretted making these allegations,’’ Reilly said.

‘Porter’s then-husband’s allegation was not supported by any evidence, other than his false and later retracted statement,’ she continued.

‘Porter’s account was supported by police accounts, a doctor’s recommendation after a child custody evaluation, her sole request for a move-out order and property control, and ultimately a judge’s decision granting her majority physical custody,’ Reilly added.

Porter has repeatedly denied the abuse allegations, which Hoffman made amid a contentious separation and divorce process in 2012 and 2013. But the accusations bubbled back to the surface after multiple former Porter staffers blew the whistle on what they described as Porter’s toxic, emotionally abusive management style.

Porter and Hoffman separated in March 2013 and continued to live with each other until their divorce was finalized in December of that year, but the two alleged abuse from each other while living together during their separation.

Divorce filings obtained by Fox News Digital included 2012 allegations from Hoffman that Porter shattered a glass coffee pot after becoming angry over their dirty house, causing him to cut his hands and arms.

Hoffman also alleged that, while married, the congresswoman frequently berated him as a ‘f—ing idiot’ and ‘f—ing incompetent’ and dumped ‘steaming hot potatoes’ on his head during a 2006 confrontation.

‘She would not let me have a cellphone because she said, ‘You’re too f—ing dumb to operate it,” Hoffman said in comments first resurfaced by the Daily Mail this week.

In her restraining order, Porter alleged Hoffman swore at her and called her names and ‘grabbed both [of her] hands and squeezed’ during the April 2013 confrontation that led to his arrest.

The congresswoman also alleged that Hoffman had used his elbow to push her aside after rushing toward her, causing her to stumble and catch herself on a nearby bookshelf.

Porter said she went to find her daughter during the altercation and that Hoffman had yelled at her that she ‘was ruining’ their family with the divorce.

‘He would not let me leave. It seemed like five minutes or more that I was trapped in the laundry room with him,’ Porter said in the divorce documents.

‘He told me that I better not call the police, because if I did, our children would go to foster care,’ Porter said. ‘More terrifying, respondent then said, ‘Do you want me to kill myself? Is that what you are trying to make happen here?”

Hoffman was the primary caretaker of the couple’s three children while Porter was the breadwinner for the family.

On April 30, 2013, Hoffman filed a restraining order with Orange County Superior Court the day before Porter’s temporary order was set to expire.

If you or someone you know is a victim of domestic violence, call the National Domestic Violence Hotline at 1-800-799-7233.

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EXCLUSIVE – Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina said there’s ‘no question’ he would support a 20-week federal ban on abortion and would potentially consider a 15-week limit.

Scott, a rising star in the GOP and the only Black Republican in the Senate, made news early Thursday in New Hampshire as he told local TV station WMUR that if elected president, he would support a 20-week ban on abortion. He reiterated that position a couple of hours later in an interview with Fox News at a café in Manchester — the state’s most populous city — but went a step further.

‘At least 20 weeks. There’s no question that I think the 15 weeks — there’s a lot of reasons for us to understand that, the viability,’ Scott told Fox News on his second day of campaigning in the crucial early presidential nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire after launching a presidential exploratory committee.

Abortion, always an important issue on the campaign trail, took center stage following the blockbuster move last June by the Supreme Court’s conservative majority to overturn the landmark nearly half-century old Roe v. Wade ruling, which allowed for legalized abortions nationwide. The decision by the high court moved the divisive issue of abortion back to the states. Last year, following the Supreme Court ruling, Scott’s GOP colleague from South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham, proposed a 15-week federal ban on abortions.

‘There’s no question that the health of the child, the viability of the child, 20 weeks in my opinion is a no question. But the 15-week threshold is something that I believe is a place where you find a national limit that says ‘no more.’ States can do less. That’s got to be a state’s opportunity to do what they want to do.’

Taking questions from reporters after a stop at the Red Arrow Diner in Manchester, a longtime must stop for White House hopefuls from both major political parties, Scott criticized Democrats for being hypocrites on the abortion issue and took aim at Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for suggesting at a Senate Banking hearing that participation in the workforce by African American women in poverty could be increased by having abortions.

‘The most egregious form of restrictions are the lack of restrictions that our friends on the other side of the aisle have been voting for. They voted for late-term abortions up until the time of birth,’ Scott argued in his Fox News interview. 

The senator charged that ‘the most egregious form of this conversation gets so little coverage and so there’s no doubt that we have to find a threshold where we know that while the issue allows the states to be as aggressive or permissive as they want to be, I think there is the need for some kind of threshold that says we’re going to limit access to abortions for x number of weeks because we continue to see the rise of the far radical left wanting abortions up to the day of birth.’

And he emphasized that ‘we can’t be a country aligned with North Korea and China,’ which allow abortions for any reasons even after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

Scott, who’s co-sponsored restrictive abortions bills during his tenure in the Senate, including the 2021 Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, which called for jail time for physicians who perform abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy. The senator, who’s reiterated when asked about abortion that he’s ‘100% pro-life,’ on Thursday declined to answer when asked whether he would support legislation to prosecute doctors who performed late-term abortions.

Speaking with reporters, Scott declined to weigh in on whether medication abortions should remain legal, in the wake ruling this week by a federal appeals court that preserved access to the abortion pill mifepristone for now reduced the period of pregnancy when the drug can be used, and said it could not be dispensed by mail. The Justice Department says it will ask the Supreme Court for an emergency order to put any action on hold.

‘The courts are on their way to solving the problem,’ Scott said.

Democrats spent millions attacking Republicans over abortion ahead of last year’s midterm elections, and it was a contributing factor in turning the hoped for red wave by Republicans into a trickle. Democrats increased their razor-thin Senate majority by one seat, and while they lost control of the House, they kept their losses to a minimum. Democrats also won a number of crucial gubernatorial contests and flipped a handful of GOP controlled state house chambers. And Democrats last week won a crucial state supreme court election in battleground Wisconsin — where abortion was a top issue — by double digits.

Scott has long highlighted his faith and has been a champion to social conservative voters, who overwhelming oppose abortion rights. He’s likely to heavily court evangelical voters, who play an outsized role in Republican politics in Iowa and his home state of South Carolina, which votes third in the GOP presidential nominating calendar. 

Among his stops on Wednesday in Iowa was a roundtable discussion with homeschool families. And following his visit to the Red Arrow Diner in Manchester, New Hampshire, Scott privately met with a group of pastors.

Asked if that’s his path to victory in the GOP nomination race, Scott told Fox News: ‘I think my path to victory is just talking to people about commonsense. Commonsense conservatism works in New Hampshire as much as it does in South Carolina.’ 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

California Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom took aim at a Florida college that he called ‘ground zero’ for what Republicans want to do to education nationwide.

The progressive champion singled out the Sarasota-based New College of Florida, whose board of trustees was revamped by Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, in a Wednesday message to his 2 million Twitter followers. Newsom said the institution is banning books, among other allegations of limiting speech.

‘Last week, I went to New College in Florida – ground zero for what the [Republicans] are trying to do to education in this country,’ Newsom said on Wednesday.

‘Take a moment to watch this. Books are banned. Speech is limited. Faculty are scared. Students are bullied. This is just a small dose of what’s to come.’

Fox News Digital reached out to Newsom’s office asking them to provide a list of the alleged banned books at the institution. However, they failed to do so and did not respond to the inquiry.

Newsom’s attacks further add to the speculation he may be exploring a future presidential run. DeSantis, also a likely presidential contender, appointed six members to New College of Florida’s board of trustees in January. The college has since taken a rightward turn in pushing back against educational policies, including abolishing its diversity office.

Meanwhile, one of the college’s DeSantis-appointed trustees, Christopher Rufo, responded to Newsom’s message by saying he’s spreading falsehoods.

‘Gavin Newsom is spreading lies and falsely claiming that ‘books are banned’ at New College of Florida,’ Rufo said. ‘He wants to put all Americans under the boot of DEI commissars and California’s failed policies.’

Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, later said that Newsom visited the college to ‘spread lies about Ron DeSantis’ higher-education reforms’ and that ‘no amount of hair gel’ could stop them from ‘restoring classical liberal arts education in Florida.’

GAVIN NEWSOM CAMPAIGN DONORS RECEIVED BILLIONS IN CA STATE CONTRACTS, INVESTIGATION FINDS 

During Newsom’s visit, he met with students and faculty who were reportedly upset with the school’s current trajectory, the Tampa Bay Times reported.

‘I’m crawling out of my skin for you guys,’ Newsom said during his visit. ‘I want you to know you’re not alone. You matter, we care. This is the ‘why I’m here.’ I’m not your governor. But I’m a member of the larger community all bound together.’

The California Democrat also took direct shots at DeSantis while at the college.

‘Weakness, Ron DeSantis – weakness masquerading as strength,’ Newsom said. ‘So, I want you to know you’re on the right side of history. You have something he’ll never have: moral authority.’

New College of Florida did not respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Mean reversion is the opposite of trend following. Investment strategies that leverage this occurrence, look to profit on countertrend moves. After an extended price move, asset prices can return to normal or average levels, either within a trading range or within standard deviations of a moving average or trend line. In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Alex and Tyler review a lot of charts in Go trends that are at or reaching resistance, or prior levels where markets might find overhead supply from sellers.

The objective approach using GoNoGo Charts is to look for momentum divergence in the GoNoGo Oscillator as signs of rejection, or price breaks above prior highs that would facilitate trend continuation. The bifurcated leadership of equity sectors also frames the inflexion point that the US stock market is at right now. Large Cap growth in both tech (XLK) and communications (XLC) is leading; at the same time, defensive sectors such as healthcare (XLV), staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) are outperforming the benchmark in relative “Go” trends. Alex and Tyler drill into the industry subgroups that are pulling these sectors higher. The message is clear that gold and cryptocurrencies offer the most constructive evidence for continued outperformance.

This video was originally recorded on April 13, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, Chromecast, iOS, Android, and more!

New episodes of GoNoGo Charts air on Thursdays at 3:30pm ET on StockCharts TV. Learn more about the GoNoGo ACP plug-in with the FREE starter plug-in or the full featured plug-in pack.

For today, please enjoy a video taking you through the ever important energy and chips sectors along with the 23-month moving averages in the 4 indices.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish shares her views on natural gas, crude oil and a selection of ETFs in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish talks what’s next for the economy on Yahoo! Finance.

Mish joins Bob Lang of Explosive Options for a special webinar on what traders can expect in 2023!

Rosanna Prestia of The RO Show chats with Mish about commodities, macro and markets.

Mish talks opportunites in the market in this appearance on Business First AM.

Mish and Charles Payne rip through lots of stock picks in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Mish talks Beyond Meat (BYND) in this appearance on Business First AM.

In this guest appearance on the Madam Trader podcast, recorded March 20, Mish shares her journey from special education teacher to commodoties trader and now trading educator. Hear her insights on the spring 2023 market conditions and how to harness the right skills to succeed.

Follow Mish as she breaks down current market conditions for her friends across the pond on CMC Markets.

Mish talks about Dominion Energy with Angela Miles in this appearance on Business First AM.

Coming Up:

April 13th: The Final Bar with David Keller on StockCharts TV and Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial and Twitter Spaces with Mario Nawfal

April 19th: Closing Bell on Cheddar TV

April 20th: Benzinga Pre-Market Prep

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

May 2-5: StockCharts TV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

April 19 Closing Bell Cheddar TV

April 20 Benzinga Pre-Market Prep

April 24-26 Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas-2 presentations and a book giveaway

May 2-5 StockChartsTV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): So much for the bears; now we watch 412-415.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support, 180 resistance.Dow (DIA): Peeking over the 23-month MA; impressive if holds.Nasdaq (QQQ): 312 support, over 320 better.Regional Banks (KRE): 41.28 March 24 low held, now has to clear 44.Semiconductors (SMH): 258 resistance with support at 250.Transportation (IYT): 219-228 the wider range to watch.Biotechnology (IBB): 130 major pivotal area, 135 resistance.Retail (XRT): Underperforming but better–64 point to clear.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Crude oil prices were in the middle of an uptrend when Russia invaded Ukraine just over a year ago, and that news caused oil prices to spike up to over $120/barrel. But oil prices have given back those gains, getting cut almost in half since the last poke above $120 in June 2022. This has led the big-money “commercial” traders of crude oil futures to pare their short positions in a big way, as seen in this week’s chart.

Every Friday, the CFTC publishes its weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, detailing how many futures contracts exist, and how many are owned by different groups of traders. The CFTC breaks these traders down into 3 groups. First, there’s commercial traders, who use the subject commodity in their trade or business — think of Cargill for wheat, as an example. Non-commercial traders are the large speculators, so think of hedge funds. And non-reportable traders are the small speculators, ones whose positions are so small that the CFTC figures it is not worth bothering tracking their holdings individually.

The net positions of these 3 different categories can be more or less significant in the different futures markets, so it can pay to look at the net position of each category. Usually, the commercial traders are the “smart money”, since traders who are in that business tend to know a lot about it, and know what a proper price is. For crude oil futures, a lot of the commercial traders are oil producers who are using the futures market for its intended purpose, so that they can lock in pricing today for oil that they are going to produce and deliver months from now. When an oil producer enters into a futures contract to sell his future production now, that is a short position, and some other trader takes the long side. That other trader may be a refiner, for example, or a speculator.

Because oil producers use the futures markets for this purpose, the commercial traders of crude oil futures are nearly always net short to varying degrees. The last time they were actually net long as a group was in 2009. Thus, the game for analysts is to evaluate the message of the commercial traders’ current position relative to past levels.

Two weeks ago, the commercial traders were at their lowest net short position as a group since 2016. They were saying then that the current prices are so low that these traders do not want to lock in these prices. They would rather let prices float and hope to do better months from now.

OPEC+ also apparently believes that current prices are too low, and so, on April 2, that organization announced a cutback in production, which caused an immediate $5 jump in oil prices. The commercial traders were right about prices being too low. Since that action by OPEC+, the commercial traders have raised their net short position just slightly, matching the price action. But they are still net short as a group in a very minimal way, indicating that there is a lot more room for oil prices to rise before this indicator would say that prices have risen too far. 

Every Friday, I review the new developments in the COT Report data for selected futures contracts, and provide updates on some of them in my Daily Edition.

It’s all about inflation and earnings. Will the Fed continue to raise interest rates after two key gauges of prices came in lower than estimates? After the recent regional bank fallout, will bank earnings be strong enough to lift the Financial sector out of its doldrums?

The government’s March consumer price index (CPI) came in lower than estimated—headline CPI rose 0.1% in March, which was less than the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate. And if you look at year-over-year numbers, it was up 5% vs. the 5.1% estimated. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.4% and 5.6% annually. Both numbers were in line with expectations.

The March producer price index, aka PPI, dropped by 0.5% compared to the previous month. Remember, PPI tells us how much manufacturers are paying for their materials on their end. If costs increase, it’s generally transferred to the end products, meaning higher consumer prices.

Overall, economists thought the PPI would stay the same as last month, so the decline seems promising. Taking out food and energy, core wholesale prices decreased by 0.1% from last month. That’s way better than the 0.2% increase economists were predicting.

Year over year, the PPI is up 2.7%, whereas last month’s reading was 4.6%. Minus food and energy prices, core PPI is up 3.4% as compared to last month, where core PPI was up 4.4%.

Signs of Softening Labor Market 

Jobless claims came in at 239,000, when 235,000 had been expected. This may give the stock market a boost. This latest figure shows that jobless claims are at their highest level in over a year. It’s still pretty low overall, though. As you know, the Fed has been trying to cool down the economy and the job market to fight inflation, but the jobs market hasn’t been hugely affected yet.

Unemployment benefit applications reflect the broader trend of layoffs. And as far as the current round goes, many of the big Tech companies that aggressively hired during the pandemic continue to shed headcount. Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (META), IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce (CRM), and DoorDash (DASH) have all initiated job cuts, some as early as last November.

Still, there’s more softening to come. US employers added 236,000 jobs in March. This suggests the economy is still relatively growing, despite the nine rate hikes the Fed implemented over the past year to ease inflation.

The unemployment rate is currently at 3.5%, but the Fed predicts it may rise to 4.5% by the end of the year. Note that this kind of increase is sizable, and, if you look at it historically, it tends to be associated with recessions. Additionally, the Labor Department reported that US job openings sunk in February down to 9.9 million. That’s the lowest since May 2021.

What’s the Economic Data Indicating? 

When you combine PPI with the March CPI report released on Wednesday, it seems inflation is easing up a bit. Still, you have to keep in mind that there’s a chance of a recession looming around. So, overall, this economic data is something of a mixed bag, really.

Inflation is showing signs of cooling, but it’s still high. Pricing pressures are easing in some areas, such as energy, used cars, and food at home. But other areas, such as shelter and eating out at restaurants, are rising. One of the biggest jumps was shelter costs, which rose 8.2% year-over-year.

The easing of “input costs” (via PPI) gives more evidence that consumer prices may be on the decline. Fluctuations in production costs often find their way to the store shelves.

Overall, the cooling inflation was welcome news for the market. The initial reaction after the CPI number was positive. Equity futures, gold prices, and crude oil jumped on the news. Treasury yields and the US dollar fell. The reaction after the PPI release was more tepid for equity futures, but gold futures rose, Treasury yields fell, and the US dollar weakened.

Looking Under the Hood 

Headline inflation grew at a slower pace, but core inflation accelerated. This could be a concern for the future. The CME FedWatch tool shows a higher probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, rather than a pause in the next Fed meeting. But that could change. More data will be released, which could influence interest rate decisions.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin commented that we’re past peak inflation, but there’s still a long way to go before reaching the 2% target. There needs to be more price weakening, which means the Fed has more work to do.

Overall, there’s still a lot of uncertainty among investors. After the collapse of a couple of regional banks, the health of the US economy is nebulous. If you pull up a chart of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) you’ll see that regional banks are still trending lower. Add to this the minutes from the Fed’s March policy meeting pointing to the possibility of a mild recession, and you have a pretty grim picture.

Given these sticky points, it shouldn’t be surprising that the market closed lower on Wednesday. The PPI number fueled more optimism in the market. The S&P 500 index ($SPX) must break above its February high (see chart below), a key level to watch. A break above it could mean more upside. But with uncertainty in the air, it may be a while before we see a relief rally in equities.

CHART 1: S&P 500 INDEX SHOWS HESITATION. A break above the February high would be more confirming of a relief rally. A lot rests on earnings from the big banks and the Fed’s interest rate decision.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Earnings-Palooza Begins

Corporate earnings have declined, on average, in the last three quarters. The trend will likely continue in the next earnings season, which kicks off on Friday. On deck are big banks J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C). Besides earnings and revenue numbers, guidance from the banks will be crucial.

Banks set the stage for earnings season. Their results provide insight into the state of the economy. If earnings align with or are better than expectations, it could be bullish for the Financial sector and the overall stock market.

The daily chart of the KBW Bank Index ($BKX) is one to keep on your radar. It’s still got a long way to go before anyone can confidently say the trend has reversed to the upside, but it will be interesting to see the price action in $BKX after the big banks report their earnings numbers.

CHART 2: WHAT WILL LIFT THE KBW BANK INDEX? Earnings from the big banks could influence price action in $BKX. Keep an eye on this chart as banks start reporting on Friday.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

The Final Word 

Investors can blame inflation and the recent banking fiasco for the lack of directional movement in the market. There’s a chance that cooling inflation may already be priced in. So, what will fire the market? Maybe earnings. The next three weeks could reveal signs of whether or not a mild recession is on the horizon.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.