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Check Out This Economic Indicator

One of the areas of the market that continues to struggle is oil. OPEC recently pushed the price of WTI crude above a prior high, but that has not held. I got an interesting email this morning from an oil and gas friend asking why his stock has dropped 20% recently. It was a small Canadian Oil and Gas company, but the same thoughts work across the spectrum.

Let’s use a company like COP. The stock continues to make lower lows and lower highs. The relative strength shown in purple continues to underperform. Until the stock can start outperforming the S&P 500 it’s going to be difficult to attract capital. The outperformance would show when this area chart in purple starts to turn up. Momentum shown by the PPO is rolling over here at a similar level to late January. That could change at any time, but it hasn’t started yet.

So is this an isolated picture? Let’s look at the crude oil markets. Here is Brent crude. Brent continues to underperform the $SPX. Brent has been stuck with a price high around $87 and the recent March move by OPEC got price back up to the highs of the range, but it couldn’t break out. Momentum (PPO) is rolling over.

On this side of the world, we focus on WTI. Here is the chart for $WTIC. This chart continues to underperform the $SPX as well. However, price actually broke out above the previous highs around $81. Currently this looks like a failed breakout. Failed breakouts are often a better clue as to the direction and at this point, lower seems to be winning. What would it take to change my mind? If oil can make a higher low and then get back above the $81 level, that makes the price action a lot more interesting. PPO is rolling over, suggesting the momentum is waning.

We can look at the oil producers ETF. It continues to weaken and has not been able to get back to prior highs, even though OPEC has taken 3 million barrels per day off the market.

However, for me, oil is one of the better economic indicators and these charts above all look weak, confirming the problem for the broader economy. Economic activity is declining and oil is telling us very clearly, demand is weaker.

When I look at the $SPX, this chart is starting to see what oil is saying. It is testing prior highs, but after three weeks here, it is struggling to break out so far. PPO is rolling over, and those sell signals have been pretty helpful indicators for upcoming market weakness.

This is not a doom and gloom forecast. It just shows the market is trying to price the economic slowdown, and crude continues to tell us that demand is slowing. When oil and oil producers start to base and breakout to the upside, I’ll be a lot more comfortable about the broader economy starting to accelerate.

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GNG TV: All Quiet on the Wall St. Front

In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, even with earnings kicking off, trading activity this week has been remarkably quiet. Alex and Tyler review some of the key lessons shared in their StockCharts TV special “Embracing Volatility” and how we as investors can profit from volatility compression and trading in the direction of the break – whether for trend continuations or reversals. US Dollar ($UUP) Treasury Rates ($TNX) and even US Oil ($USO) are showing consolidation at support/resistance levels; the direction of trends will be determined by price activity at these key levels.

Diving into the sectors of the S&P 500 on a relative strength basis shows that the bifurcated market remains. Leadership from XLK and XLC is contradicted by strength in defensive sectors like Healthcare (XLV), consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU). It’s an important moment as well for FCX, as the duo explain how the industrials and materials companies have begun to show signs of “construction.”

This video was originally recorded on April 20, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, Chromecast, iOS, Android, and more!

New episodes of GoNoGo Charts air on Thursdays at 3:30pm ET on StockCharts TV. Learn more about the GoNoGo ACP plug-in with the FREE starter plug-in or the full featured plug-in pack.

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Lead Prices Foretell CPI Changes

Inflation rates have been coming back down from their big post-COVID spike to above 8%. But they are likely to see a brief upturn, if this week’s guest fortune-teller is correct.

The movements of the price of lead tend to get repeated about 4 months later in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). That is the message in this week’s chart. Lead is an industrial metal which most of us do not think about, now that it has been taken out of gasoline, but it still finds uses in lead-acid car batteries, car radiators, and in some electronics components. Its price goes up and down with demand, like lots of other industrial metals, and it does a pretty good job of foretelling the movements of other prices.

This is relevant right now because lead prices bottomed on September 27, 2022 and spiked up to a top on December 30, 2022. We have not yet seen the CPI reflect that upswing in lead prices, and we ought to see some echo of it over the next 1-2 months. That up move in lead prices in late 2022 did not go very far nor for very long, but it was still a noticeable up move that ought to see its echo get felt in consumer prices. Note that, in the chart above, I have shifted forward the plot of lead prices in order to allow us to better see how the CPI data echo lead’s movements after that amount of lag time.

This is not a new phenomenon; it has been going on for years. Here is a longer-term chart going back to 2008, again with the 4-month offset employed.

The movements of the CPI rate of change do not perfectly echo all of lead’s price movements. And this is daily pricing for spot lead versus monthly data for the CPI, and so the lead price plot understandably has more noise.

Why this particular lag time is 4 months is a fascinating question, but not a very useful one. A person does not need to have an answer for that question in order to take advantage of the insights that this comparison offers us. If a phenomenon has been going on consistently for long enough, we do not have to be able to perfectly explain it in order to notice it and use it. It is also worth noting that the magnitudes of lead’s price movements do not always get perfectly replicated in the CPI data. I am not bothered by that, because I find that if I get the direction and the timing of the turns correct, the magnitudes can take care of themselves.

Look for the CPI to make a bit of an inflationary resurgence over the next 1-3 months, and for the Fed and others to get a bit excited about that. But also know that it should just be a temporary resurgence.

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The Achilles Heel of ETFs

Trend-momentum strategies trading ETFs were appealing because they generated lower drawdowns and decent returns. Trend-momentum strategies trading stocks, in contrast, were often subject to higher drawdowns, though returns were higher. While I cannot speak for all ETF strategies, my experience shows that ETF strategies have lost their low-drawdown edge. This makes stock strategies more appealing because they now have similar drawdown profiles.

Before looking at ETF performance, let’s look at 1-year (255-day ROC) returns for the S&P 500 SPDR (large-caps), the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and the Russell 2000 ETF. SPY is down 7.09%, MDY is down 5.28% and IWM is down 11.74%. There is a clear downward bias over the past year. The blue lines mark the middle of the 10-month range for each ETF (mid-June to mid-April). All three are largely range bound. SPY is in the upper half of its range, MDY is just above the mid point and IWM is in the lower half. It is a very mixed market, at best.

Stock-based ETFs reflect the divided market because few failed to generate outsized returns. Trend-momentum strategies depend on outsized returns to generate positive expectancy. Stock-based ETFs are at a disadvantage when the market is divided because they hold a basket of stocks. ETFs cannot avoid the losers in a divided market and this weighs on performance.

The last 12 months have been rough, very rough. The table below shows performance based on the 255-day Rate-of-Change. Of the 170 stock-based ETFs in our Master List, only 1 gained more than 20% (ITB) and only one gained between 10 and 20 percent (XHB). The inability to generate outsized returns is the Achilles Heel for ETFs. Only 9% of the ETFs were up, 91% were down and the average gain/loss was a loss of 13.74%. That is ugly.

The second line shows comparable numbers for stocks in the S&P 500. The average return is still negative, but much less negative (-6.12% vs -13.74%). 35% of S&P 500 stocks are up over the last 255 days and 65% are down. There is still a negative bias here, but the big difference becomes clear when we look at the outsized gains. 10.74% of stocks are up more than 20 percent and 9.54% are up between 10 and 20 percent (green shading).

Despite a difficult 12 months, the S&P 500 was able to produce more outsized gains than the 170 stock-based ETFs in my universe. Our trend-momentum strategies based on ETFs experienced their largest drawdowns recently. Similar trend-momentum strategies trading S&P 500 stocks performed better because they were able to weed out the losers and catch some outsized gains.

TrendInvestorPro will introduce a trend-momentum strategy for trading stocks in the S&P 500 next week. Also note that there is an expanded version of this article available to subscribers. This article shows profit distributions for a typical trend-momentum strategy, drawdowns for stock/ETF strategies and further explains the Achilles Heel for ETFs. Click here for immediate access.

The Trend Composite, ATR Trailing Stop and nine other indicators are part of the TrendInvestorPro Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP. Click here to take your analysis process to the next level.

—————————————

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How to get more money out of a savings account while interest rates are high

As part of its plan to cool inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to their highest levels in nearly two decades.

The idea is to make borrowing, investing and hiring more expensive, thereby cooling the demand in the economy that fuels price growth.

Historically, higher interest rates have translated into higher returns on savings accounts for consumers. Banks look to compete with one another by attracting people who are ready to put some money away.

But if you’re looking for a big return on your savings, you likely won’t find it with a basic savings account at your local branch; they are not offering much in the way of high annual percentage yields. The average APY for a basic savings account is just 0.24%, according to Bankrate.

Instead, the highest-yield accounts can usually be found at online banks, Bankrate says. While they may not look as familiar as some of the larger banks, they are still regulated and insured by the FDIC, according to Bankrate senior vice president and chief financial analyst Greg McBride.

‘Banks with a lot of deposits don’t need to pay to bring in more,’ McBride said. ‘As a consumer, you can benefit by sending money to places that are welcoming you with open arms’ by offering higher-yielding products.

As of this writing, the highest-yield savings account on the market according to Bankrate is being offered by CIT Bank, which is a division of North Carolina-based First Citizens Bank. CIT’s high-interest savings account currently yields 4.75% a year, with no minimum balance requirement and no monthly service charge.

While CIT Bank may not be a household name, two familiar brands have teamed up to take advantage of demand for high-yield accounts. On Monday, Apple and Marcus, Goldman Sachs’ consumer division, announced a savings account with a 4.15% interest rate. It requires no minimum deposit or balance, and users can set up an account from the Wallet app on their iPhones.

Locking in a guaranteed return on your savings

Even though interest rates are high right now, they won’t stay that way indefinitely. Again — that’s good news if you’re carrying debt, but bad news if you’re trying to grow your savings.

Many certificate of deposit, or CD, products offer even higher interest rates in exchange for holding your money in an account for a fixed period of time, at a fixed rate. The highest-yielding product is a two-year CD currently being offered by Bread, another online bank, which offers a 5.10% rate, according to Bankrate.

Of course, APYs come with a caveat: They can change in response to rising or falling interest rates.

Still, Bankrate’s McBride said that all consumers should have emergency funds and that the current market for high-yield savings accounts creates a great opportunity to park your money and watch it grow over time to pad out such a fund.

High APY products, he said, ‘are within reach of everyone.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Elizabeth Holmes appeals ‘unjust’ conviction in Theranos fraud case

Elizabeth Holmes, founder of the blood-testing lab Theranos, has filed an appeal of her January 2022 conviction on four counts of fraud in connection with her time as chief executive of the company.

In a 132-page filing Monday, Holmes and her lawyers argue the federal prosecutor’s case against her ‘parroted the public narrative’ that she knowingly and intentionally misrepresented to investors the capabilities of Theranos technology.

‘But the reality differed significantly from that narrative,’ Holmes’ attorneys say. ‘Highly credentialed Theranos scientists told Holmes in real time the technology worked. Outsiders who reviewed the technology said it worked. Theranos’ groundbreaking developments received many patents. And in 2015 the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) approved an assay on Theranos’ proprietary technology.’

The lawyers also argue the government committed violations during its prosecution — ones that the District Court Judge Ed Davila nevertheless ‘indulged’ as he ‘abus[ed]’ his discretion, according to the filing.

Along with the exclusion of key testimony from Holmes’ co-defendant, Sunny Balwani, during which they argue that Balwani implicated himself in running the company’s finances, the jury’s guilty verdict for Holmes was ‘unjust,’ the lawyers write.

Should no new trial be ordered, Holmes and her attorneys are also seeking a reduction to her sentence of more than 11 years in prison, which they called ‘severe’ and erroneously decided.

Holmes’ appeal comes one week after Davila rejected her bid to stay out of prison while it is being heard. In that decision, Davila ruled the appeal was unlikely to be successful, noting Holmes’ “misrepresentations to Theranos investors involved more than just whether Theranos technology ‘worked as promised.”

Holmes, Davila said, also misrepresented “the company’s financial status, reliance on third-party and commercially available devices, partnership with Walgreens, and validation by pharmaceutical companies.”

“In light of the breadth of misrepresentations at issue,” Davila said, there is no single potential error committed by the court that would likely result in a verdict reversal or new trial.

Holmes, 39, is expected to report to prison this month.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Hours after state board rebuke, Disney announces groundbreaking for affordable housing in Florida

Walt Disney World said on Wednesday it would break ground next year on a planned affordable housing development in Central Florida.

The unit of Walt Disney Co. said it plans to provide 1,400 housing units on 80 acres of land “a few miles away” from the Magic Kingdom and near schools and shopping. The first units are expected to be completed in 2026.

The announcement comes the same day as members of the state-appointed oversight board discussed the need for affordable housing for Disney’s 75,000 employees.

Tensions between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Disney began last year, when the company publicly opposed the state’s legislation barring instruction of sexual orientation and gender identity in the classroom.

The Florida legislature passed a bill, which DeSantis signed, giving the governor the authority to appoint supervisors to a board that oversees municipal services and development in a special district that encompasses Walt Disney World resort.

Disney responded by pushing through a developer’s agreement and restrictive covenants that would limit the new board’s actions for decades. The Governor responded by calling on the state lawmakers to pass a bill that would nullify the company’s efforts.

Reuters reporting by Dawn Chmielewski in Los Angeles; Editing by Christopher Cushing

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Inside ‘light the beam’ that has become NBA playoff team’s rallying cry

The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most successful sports stories this year. The Kings won the Pacific Division title and ended the longest playoff drought in major North American pro sports.

Following every win, the Kings have a tradition to “light the beam.’ It’s a rallying cry that’s energized the franchise, the fanbase and even casual NBA fans near and far.

The “light the beam” chant has become a mantra that has defined the Kings during their resurgent season, which has included Mike Brown winning the NBA Coach of the Year award and the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2006.

Here’s everything you need to know about the “light the beam” rallying cry:

Follow every game: Latest NBA Scores and Schedules

What is light the beam

The beam is a 300-watt laser-powered purple beam, which is powered by six laser cannons. The beam is over the grand entrance at the Golden 1 Center.

When do the Kings light the beam?

If the Kings win a home game, a player usually hits a Kings-branded buzzer that gives a laser technician atop the Golden 1 Center roof a signal to light the beam.

The beam is also lit when the Kings win road games.

Who came up with the idea to light the beam?

When was the beam first lit?

The beam was first unveiled on Sept. 16. It was lit for the first time on Oct. 29, when the Kings won their first game of the season. However, the “light the beam” mantra started to gain popularity during the Kings’ seven-game winning streak in November.

‘Light the beam’ popularity

Stories about the beam have reached an audience of approximately 373 million people , according to the Kings.

‘One of the things that has never surprised me is the passion of the fans,’ Ranadive said, per ESPN. ‘And so, the fact that the fans just loved it was not a surprise. What was a surprise was just the, not just national, but global phenomenon that it became.’

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Former Kentucky players are all over NBA playoffs. How are they doing?

Kentucky men’s basketball coach John Calipari was smiling with good reason Monday during Philadelphia’s easy 96-84 Game 2 victory against Brooklyn in the first round of the NBA’s Eastern Conference playoffs.

One of his former Wildcats, Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey, scored a game-high 33 points on 13-for-23 shooting, including 6-for-13 on 3-pointers.

After he left that game, Calipari could turn on Sacramento-Golden State and see two more of his former players, Kings guards De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk, starring in the playoffs.

Everywhere you look, ex-Wildcats are front and center in the playoffs, from the Los Angeles Lakers’ Anthony Davis to Phoenix’s Devin Booker to New York’s Julius Randle to Miami’s Bam Adebayo to Denver’s Jamal Murray.

‘The environment here (at Kentucky), everything about it is preparing them for the NBA,” Calipari told USA TODAY Sports during the 2020 playoffs in the Orlando bubble. “It’s an NBA environment. How we practice, the competitiveness in practice, the games, the shots. Every shot matters here.’

Follow every game: Latest NBA Scores and Schedules

Here’s all the Wildcats competing in the 2023 NBA playoffs: 

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers have a 2-0 lead over the Brooklyn Nets: 

Tyrese Maxey

Kentucky (2019–2020)Drafted by the 76ers with the 21st overall pick in 20202022-23 regular-season stats: 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists

Maxey had 13 points, six rebounds and three steals in the Sixers’ 121-101 Game 1 win over the Nets. He dropped 33 in Philly’s 96-84 Game 2 win in front of Calipari.

Miami Heat

The Heat earned the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference following a 102-91 play-in tournament win over the Chicago Bulls. The Heat and Milwaukee Bucks series is tied 1-1.

Bam Adebayo

Kentucky (2016–2017)Drafted by the Heat with the 14th overall pick in 2017 2022-23 regular-season stats: 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists

The Heat stole Game 1 from the Bucks with a 130-117 win in Milwaukee. Adebayo had 22 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in the victory.

He had 18 points in their 122-138 Game 2 loss. 

Tyler Herro

Kentucky (2018–2019)Drafted by the Heat with the 13th overall pick in 2019 2022-23 regular-season stats: 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists

The 2022 Sixth Man of the Year will be out four to six weeks after breaking his right hand while diving for a loose ball in Game 1. Herro racked up 12 points and two rebounds in 19 minutes of play before the injury. He said he’ll likely return for the NBA Finals if the Heat make it that far. 

NBA PLAYOFF OPENERS: Kings, Lakers rise; injuries rattle Bucks, Grizzlies, Heat

New York Knicks

The Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are tied 1-1: 

Julius Randle

Kentucky (2013–2014)Drafted by the Lakers with the seventh overall pick in 2014 2022-23 regular-season stats: 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists

The Knicks stole Game 1 from the Cavaliers with a 101-97 win in Cleveland, thanks in part to Randle’s 19 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. But the Cavaliers tied the series with a 107-90 win in Game 2. To add insult to injury, Randle exited in the fourth quarter as the Knicks trailed by double digits after landing awkwardly on his tailbone. 

Immanuel Quickley

Kentucky (2018–2020)Drafted by the Thunder with the 25th overall pick in 2020 2022-23 regular-season stats: 14.9 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists

Quickley had three points off the bench in Game 1 and added 12 points in Game 2. 

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are looking to advance to the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2020. They are the No. 1 seed and lead the Minnesota Timberwolves 2-0:

Jamal Murray

Kentucky (2015–2016)Drafted by the Nuggets with the seventh overall pick in 20162022-23 regular-season stats: 20.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.2 assists

Murray scored a game-high 24 points and had eight rebounds and eight assists in the Nuggets’ 109-80 Game 1 win over the Timberwolves, his first playoff game since the 2020 NBA bubble.

‘Congratulations to Jamal for being back,’ Nuggets coach Michael Malone said of Murray, who tore his ACL in 2021. ‘That’s two postseasons that he did not play. It seems like eons ago when we were in the bubble and he was doing his thing.’

He dropped 40 points in the Nuggets’ 122-113 win over the Timberwolves in Game 2. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns led the Timberwolves to the playoffs with a 120-95 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the play-in tournament to secure the No. 8 seed. They trail the Denver Nuggets 2-0:

Karl-Anthony Towns

Kentucky (2014–2015)Drafted by the Timberwolves with the first overall pick in 20152022-23 regular-season stats: 20.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists

Despite a strong showing in the play-in tournament, Towns only registered 11 points and 10 rebounds in Minnesota’s 109-80 Game 1 loss to the Nuggets. He wasn’t able to get it going in Game 2 either, scoring only 10 points and 12 rebounds in the loss. 

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers, who have three Wildcats, earned their spot in the playoffs with a 108-102 overtime win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in tournament to secure the No. 7 seed. The Lakers and Memphis Grizzles are tied 1-1:

Anthony Davis

Kentucky (2011–2012)Drafted by the New Orleans Hornets with the first overall pick in 20122022-23 regular-season stats: 25.9 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists

Davis has not only won an NCAA championship with Kentucky, he won an NBA championship with the Lakers in 2020. And despite getting off to a 2-10 start to the regular season, the Lakers are looking to make a run in the West and their chances are contingent on the health of Davis and LeBron James. 

Davis almost had a triple-double in the Lakers’ 128-112 Game 1 win over the Grizzles, finishing with 22 points, 12 rebounds and seven blocks. He exited before halftime with a shoulder stinger, but would later return. 

He had 13 points in their 103-93 Game 2 loss. 

Wenyen Gabriel

Kentucky (2016–2018)Undrafted in 20182022-23 regular-season stats: 5.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 0.5 assists

Gabriel did not score in Game 1 or Game 2. 

Jarred Vanderbilt

Kentucky (2017–2018)Drafted by the Magic with the 41st overall pick in 20182022-23 regular-season stats: 7.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists

Vanderbilt started Game 1, but only recorded four points in 23 minutes. He had eight points in Game 2. 

Sacramento Kings

Three Wildcats contributed to the Kings’ first playoff appearance since 2006. Sacramento leads the Golden State Warriors 2-0.

De’Aaron Fox

Kentucky (2016–2017)Drafted by the Kings with the fifth overall pick in 20172022-23 regular-season stats: 25.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists

Fox was named the inaugural winner of the NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year Award, earning 91 out of 100 first-place votes from league sportswriters and broadcasters. He also earned his first All-Star nod this season.  

He scored a game-high 38 points, including 29 in the second half and 15 in the fourth quarter, in the Kings’ 126-123 Game 1 win over the Warriors, his first playoff game. He had 24 points in their 114-106 Game 2 win over the defending world champions.

Malik Monk

Kentucky (2016–2017)Drafted by the Charlotte Hornets with the 11th overall pick in 20172022-23 regular-season stats: 13.5 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists

Monk reunited with his college teammate Fox this season after signing a two-year, $19 million contract with the Kings following one season with the Lakers. 

He scored 32 points off the bench, shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 14-for-14 from the free throw line, in the Kings’ Game 1 win. He had 18 points in Game 2. 

Trey Lyles

Kentucky (2014–2015)Drafted by the Jazz with the 12th overall pick in 20152022-23 regular-season stats: 7.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 0.9 assists

Lyles had 16 points off the bench for the Kings in Game 1, but didn’t score in Game 2. 

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are looking to return to the NBA Finals, which they reached in 2021. They are tied with the Los Angeles Clippers, 1-1.

Devin Booker

Kentucky (2014–2015)Drafted by the Suns with the 13th overall pick in 20152022-23 regular-season stats: 27.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists

Booker and Kevin Durant combined for 53 points in Game 1 of Phoenix’s first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, but they weren’t able to pull off a win at home. The Suns lost 115-110. Booker dropped a game-high 38 points as the Suns evened the series with a 123-109 win. 

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers and Suns are tied 1-1: 

Brandon Boston Jr.

Kentucky (2020–2021)Drafted by the Grizzlies with the 51st overall pick in 20212022-23 regular-season stats: 6.5 points, 1.4 rebounds and 0.9 assists

Boston Jr. did not play in Game 1 and got one minute in Game 2, but did not score.  

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Padres’ suspended star making long-awaited return

A funny thing happened to the San Diego Padres after they lost superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. for the entire 2022 season.

Coming off a third-place National League MVP finish, Tatis was expected to power the Padres to the postseason and further cement his status as a franchise icon. Instead, a broken wrist suffered in a motorcycle accident sidelined him into August, just long enough for an 80-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s performance-enhancing drug policy to hit, striking 2022 from his record altogether.

And the Padres flourished.

They won 89 games, most since 2010, and defeated the 101-win New York Mets and 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers to reach the NL Championship Series, their first playoff conquests since 1998. With slugger Juan Soto now in tow and the steady Ha-Seong Kim holding down shortstop, perhaps Tatis was superfluous to their core.

Yet 20 games into their season, it’s clear San Diego will most definitely need Tatis when his suspension concludes and he suits up against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday in Phoenix.

Follow every game: Latest MLB Scores and Schedules

A look at how Tatis and the Padres got here, and what’s next:

MLB PAYROLLS 2023: Full list of every baseball team from highest to lowest

PAID IN FULL: Who is the highest-paid outfielder in 2023?

Is this the same team Tatis left?

Tatis last played in a major league game on Oct. 3, 2021, concluding the Padres’ 79-83 season while capping the San Francisco Giants’ 107-win campaign.

Jayce Tingler managed that game for the Padres; he was subsequently fired and replaced by Bob Melvin.

Tatis, in the first year of his 14-year, $340 million contract, started at shortstop and expected to hold that position down for at least a decade; San Diego has since signed Xander Bogaerts to a $300 million deal and booted Tatis to the outfield.

And the likes of Wil Myers, Tommy Pham and Jake Marisnick held down corner outfield spots that season; they’ve been effectively replaced by Silver Slugger Soto (acquired in an August 2022 trade) and Bogaerts, whose December signing ended Tatis’ occasionally erratic reign at shortstop.

On a more intangible level, it is decidedly Manny Machado’s ballclub.

While Tatis, still just 24, inspired many a highlight reel since his debut as a 20-year-old, it is Machado who has stayed healthy (he’s played in 95% of San Diego’s games since joining them in 2019) and productive (.847 OPS, 133 adjusted OPS). And now he’s guaranteed even more money: San Diego signed him to an 11-year, $350 million deal in February to ensure Machado did not opt out of his previous $300 million pact after this season.

What happened to Tatis?

He suffered what was initially described as “minor injuries” in a Dec. 8, 2021 motorcycle accident in the Dominican Republic, just a week after MLB locked out the players in a labor dispute that would last 99 days.

After a new collective bargaining agreement was reached in March and players reported for an abbreviated spring training, it was revealed Tatis suffered a broken left wrist in the accident – or at least one of perhaps multiple offseason incidents, as Tatis cagily answered. Regardless, surgery was required and the injury was slow to heal.

He was slated to begin a rehab assignment sometime in August, but on Aug. 12, MLB announced that Tatis tested positive for clostebol, a testosterone derivative. Tatis claimed he unknowingly ingested the banned substance in an effort to treat ringworm.

Regardless, his season was over, so Tatis went for the mega-fix, undergoing long-delayed left shoulder surgery in September and then a follow-up procedure in October on his left wrist.

He showed up to spring training healthy and ready to play – yet still needing to serve 20 games of his suspension.

What’s Tatis been up to?

Most recently, pulverizing minor-league pitching.

Tatis crushed seven homers in eight games with San Diego’s Class AA El Paso (Texas) affiliate, notching 17 hits in 33 at-bats before the Padres said, “You’re good” and summoned him back to San Diego.

He’s been working out pregame at Petco Park, but forced to leave before stadium gates open, per terms of his suspension. But he also got in a full spring training, and earned strong reviews for his work in right field.

How have the Padres fared without him?

Not great! They’re just 9-11 and while winning three of four at Atlanta was impressive, they’ve split or lost all their other series. Machado (.590 OPS) and Soto (.194 average, .790 OPS) are underperforming and starters Michael Wacha (6.06) and Blake Snell (6.00) have struggled.

It hasn’t helped that San Diego was forced to piecemeal a right field solution while Tatis finished his suspension. A crew largely comprised of Jose Azocar, Rougned Odor, David Dahl and Brandon Dixon have combined for a .441 OPS, 29th among 30 teams in right field productivity.

Tatis can only help that. And Machado’s defiant words may ring true come summertime.

“I’d rather have this happen now than down the road,” Machado said, per MLB.com, after a home loss to Atlanta on Monday. “Don’t jump on the bandwagon later on when we start (expletive) raking and we’re doing what we’re supposed to be doing.’

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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