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House Republicans on Wednesday delivered Speaker Kevin McCarthy the biggest win of his tenure leading the chamber so far by passing his bill to raise the debt limit and slash spending, a bill that serves as the GOP’s position on how to avoid a debt crisis in the coming weeks.

The bill passed in a narrow 217-215 vote. Every Democrat voted against it, as expected, along with four Republicans: Andy Biggs of Arizona, Tim Burchett of Tennessee, Ken Buck of Colorado and Matt Gaetz of Florida.

Republicans cast the vote as a win that puts them in the driver’s seat in negotiations they hope can happen with President Biden in the coming weeks. Biden has refused to entertain anything other than a clean increase in the debt ceiling, while Republicans insist he should agree to some trimming in the federal budget as a condition of raising the government’s borrowing limit.

‘We have lifted the debt ceiling, so nobody could worry about whether the debt ceiling is going to get lifted, we did it. The Democrats have not. The president wants to make sure the debt ceiling is going to be lifted? Sign this bill,’ McCarthy said in a press conference after the vote.

In a call with reporters after the vote, House GOP leaders made clear that the ball is now in Biden’s court. Fox News Digital asked House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Majority Whip Tom Emmer about how they plan to convince their members to vote for a version of the bill again after Biden and McCarthy speak, assuming Democrats foist some changes onto the legislation.

‘We are the only chamber that has done our job,’ Stefanik, R-N.Y., said. ‘[Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer] needs to get the negotiating table, as does President Joe Biden.’

Scalise, R-La., said, ‘The negotiations need to happen on the Democrat side — in the Senate in the White House — not in the Republican-led House, because we had those negotiations, and came up with a bill that saves taxpayers money and grows the economy. At the end of the day, it’s President Biden who can no longer sit on the sidelines.’

Without some agreement to raise the debt ceiling, the federal government is at risk of not being able to pay its bills sometime around early June.

The House vote came after several dissenting GOP lawmakers gradually fell in line behind McCarthy on Wednesday after spending hours in the speaker’s office the day before.

Rep. Nancy Mace, R-N.C., for example, who told reporters she was unhappy with the legislation and how leaders went about cobbling it together on Wednesday morning, emerged from McCarthy’s office later that afternoon singing a different tune.

‘We had a very productive meeting, it was very good. I feel like our voice has been heard, and that we’re going to work on this together going forward,’ said Mace.

All four members of the Iowa House delegation — all Republicans — released a joint statement hours before the vote announcing their intent to support the bill. They were part of a group of about seven or eight lawmakers from the Corn Belt who were concerned about the initial bill’s repeal of tax credits that would impede ethanol production in their state.

‘Having successfully amended the bill to protect funding for these tax credits, our delegation will vote for this legislation, which is a starting point to avoid a default and cut wasteful spending,’ the statement read.

GOP leaders tweaked the bill overnight to assuage concerns from key Republican factions who appeared ready to oppose it on Tuesday. The changes soften their repeal of the biofuel tax credits and move the legislation’s planned activation of work requirements for federal benefits up from 2025 to 2024.

It was also enough to win over Reps. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., and George Santos, R-N.Y., who both announced they were solid ‘yes’ votes on the bill.

The Limit, Save, Grow Act aims to raise the debt limit by $1.5 trillion or through the end of March 2024, whichever benchmark is hit first. It also caps spending increases to 1% for the next decade. Meanwhile, in addition to the aforementioned cost-saving measures, it also caps discretionary spending at fiscal 2022 levels.

The legislation faces an uphill battle in the Senate, however, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has criticized House Republicans for trying to pair spending cuts with raising the debt limit.

Similarly, President Biden threatened to veto the bill if it comes to his desk, and on Wednesday refused again to negotiate spending cuts in conjunction with a debt limit increase. That position was backed up by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who accused Republicans on the House floor of presiding over ‘exploding deficits’ and going down ‘a dangerous path’ with their legislation.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A whistleblower who viewed first-hand what she testified is a ‘sophisticated network’ of child migrant smuggling into forced labor and other forms of slavery is calling on Congress to act to crack down on the U.S. role in that network.

The hearing, ‘The Biden Border Crisis: Exploitation of Unaccompanied Alien Children,’ was held by the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security and Enforcement and included Health and Human Services (HHS) whistleblower Tara Lee Rodas as a witness.

Rodas, who was detailed with HHS at an Emergency Intake Site in Pomona, California, on Wednesday told lawmakers about what she experienced on the ground. 

‘I thought I was going to help place children in loving homes. Instead, I discovered that children are being trafficked through a sophisticated network that begins with recruiting in their home country, smuggled to the U.S. border, and ends when [Office of Refugee Resettlement] delivers a child to a sponsor — some sponsors are criminals and traffickers and members of Transnational Criminal Organizations. Some sponsors view children as commodities and assets to be used for earning income — this is why we are witnessing an explosion of labor trafficking,’ Rodas said.

According to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) statistics, the number of unaccompanied alien children (UACs) who arrive at the border has swelled from 33,239 in fiscal year 2020 to more than 146,000 in fiscal year 2021 and 152,000 in fiscal year 2022. So far in fiscal year 2023, there have been more than 70,000 encounters of UACs.

When child migrants are encountered at the border, they are transferred into the custody of HHS and then united with a sponsor — typically a parent or family member already in the U.S.

But the administration has been hit by a number of New York Times reports detailing a rise in child exploitation, where children are forced into the labor force — sometimes to pay back their smuggling costs. It has led to concerns that, by transporting children to sponsors, the U.S. is involved in child trafficking. The Times reported how officials reportedly ignored signs of ‘explosive’ growth in the child labor force.

‘Whether intentional or not, it could be argued that the U.S. government has become the middleman in a large scale, multibillion-dollar child trafficking operation that is run by bad actors seeking to profit off of the lives of children,’ Rodas said.

Rodas described how she saw children becoming captive to their ‘sponsors’ as they couldn’t seek help in English or Spanish and sponsors using multiple addresses to obtain sponsorships of children. Rodas said she does not see it as a political issue, but as a humanitarian issue, noting that it has been a crisis going on for nearly 10 years.

‘Realizing that we were not offering children the American dream, but instead putting them in modern-day slavery with wicked overlords, was a terrible revelation,’ Rodas said, adding that her life ‘will never be the same’ after what she saw.

Republicans have blamed the ongoing crisis on the Biden administration’s policies, which they say have encouraged illegal migration and for parents to put their children into the hands of smugglers. Democrats have noted that the issue predated the Biden administration, and have pointed to efforts being undertaken to increase oversight of sponsors, along with new task forces, greater information sharing and calls for greater funding.

Rodas told lawmakers that ‘it is my hope you’ll take action to end this crisis, to safeguard the lives of these vulnerable children.’

She called for greater oversight and transparency from HHS including from the Office of Inspector General, the stopping of ‘retaliation’ against whistleblowers, an end to a ‘culture of speed over safety’ and a requirement that sponsors report to the Office of Refugee Resettlement.

‘As it is written: A wise man listens to advice, while a fool continues in his folly. HHS needs to be wise to care for these children,’ Rodas said.

Last month, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra pushed back on the agency being unable to contact 85,000 minors, and he also said HHS authorities are limited by Congress.

‘Congress has given us certain authorities. Our authorities end when we have found a suitable sponsor to place that child with. We try and do some follow-up, but neither the child or the sponsor is actually obligated to follow up with us,’ he said.

Meanwhile, domestic policy adviser Susan Rice — who left her role this week — responded to the Times report that her team was shown evidence of a growing migrant child labor crisis.

‘We were never informed of any kind of systematic problem with child labor or migrant child labor,’ she said.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Consultants hired to evaluate three potential sites for New Hampshire’s new youth detention center are recommending property next to the state’s existing youth psychiatric hospital in Hampstead.

SMRT Architects and Engineers assessed the 94-acre property that includes Hampstead Hospital, the current Sununu Youth Services Center and its 50 surrounding acres in Manchester, and a vacant building in a state office park in Concord. In a report released Wednesday, officials said the Hampstead site was the most advantageous for development of the new facility.

Debate over building a new facility began years ago, but it has come to a boil amid horrific sexual abuse allegations stretching back decades. Frustrated with spending $13 million per year to operate a 144-bed facility for about a dozen teens, lawmakers in 2021 mandated that it close by March 2023. They missed that deadline. But they recently passed legislation allocating roughly $22 million for the design and construction of a 12-bed facility, with room for up to 18.

The consultants hired as part of that process evaluated the three sites based on a variety of factors, including the style and feel of the surrounding environment, the ability to share meal and laundry services with other facilities, and the proximity to medical facilities, law enforcement, skilled labor and residents’ families.

While the current location scored high for being close to external support services such as medical facilities and courts and for being located in a major population center, it received low marks for being incompatible with whatever ends up being developed around it. Consultants also said the new facility should be built somewhere ‘free of negative historical context,’ which would not fit with the ‘tumultuous history’ of the current property.

In contrast, the report said the Hampstead site is ‘complementary in aesthetics to a calm, healing environment.’ The new facility could be sufficiently separate from the existing hospital while sharing food and laundry services, and its location in the southern part of the state could boost employee recruitment potential.

The Concord location received low scores on multiple measures, particularly because choosing that site would involve not constructing a new building but rather renovating one that is ill-suited for a secure facility. The building is part of a densely developed state office park that includes various state agencies and non-profit organizations.

‘This area of the campus is busy, hectic and full of pedestrians and vehicles,’ the report states. ‘Londergan Hall projects a feeling of authority with its traditional historic design. This building does not represent a vision focused on treatment, rehabilitation, and hope for the future.’

The report will be submitted to a commission created to work with communities and the state during the design process.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to take further steps towards launching a 2024 campaign for the White House next month, according to a Wednesday report by NBC News.

The report cites four unnamed Republican operatives it said are familiar with the conversations about plans for DeSantis to launch a presidential exploratory committee, with an official launch of his campaign to come at a later time.

Each of the operatives told NBC that a mid-May launch of the committee was the target, but that a number of his supporters wanted him to declare his candidacy by May 11 in order to counter former President Donald Trump’s front-runner status for the Republican nomination.

Others close to the governor, the report said, have argued such an early date would be too soon.

DeSantis has long been mulling a run for the White House, but has remained tight-lipped over whether he would actually toss his hat into the 2024 fray. Polls have consistently showed him as the runner-up to Trump, while many Republicans have argued he is the best alternative to the former president, who they see as unable to win a national race.

There are currently five presidential hopefuls vying for the Republican nomination in addition to Trump, including businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson and former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., announced the formation of his exploratory committee earlier this month, and a number of other Republicans are also reportedly considering a run. These include former Vice President Mike Pence, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, South Dakota Gov. Christie Noem, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.

President Biden announced earlier this week that he would seek a second term as president, but is being challenged for the Democratic nomination by environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and self-help author and spiritual guru Marianne Williamson.

Fox News Digital reached out to DeSantis’ team to confirm the report, but did not immediately receive a response.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The Minnesota Senate is set to debate an elections bill that would let 16- and 17-year-olds to pre-register to vote.The plan would also establish automatic registration for residents who apply for or renew driver’s licenses or enroll in government programs.’If there was a Mount Rushmore for election reform bills in the history of Minnesota going back beyond 1973,’ Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon said, this proposal ‘would be on it.’

Minnesota — a state where it is already easy to vote — is moving make it even easier, countering the national trend of states imposing further restrictions on balloting.

The Minnesota Senate was set Wednesday to debate an elections bill that would allow 16- and 17-year-olds to pre-register so they can vote as soon as they are old enough, and establish automatic registration when residents apply for or renew driver’s licenses or sign up for Medicaid and other public programs.

At a news conference ahead of the debate, Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon called it a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ to strengthen democracy.

Minnesota is increasing voter access even as red states impose more restrictions, often in the name of election integrity. Several Republican-led states have tightened rules on voting by mail since the 2020 presidential election, in part because of the false narrative of widespread fraud in that race. Mississippi last month set tighter restrictions on who can gather other people’s absentee ballots. Three Republican-led states last month pulled out of a bipartisan effort among states to ensure accurate voter lists, undermining a system with a demonstrated record of combating voter fraud.

Simon pointed out that Minnesota 50 years ago became one of the first states to pass Election Day voter registration at the polls. He said he still views that as the ‘jewel in the crown’ of a system that consistently makes Minnesota a national leader in voter turnout. Minnesota adopted another major set of changes 10 years ago, he said, listing online voter registration and allowing everyone to vote by absentee ballot without needing to provide an excuse.

‘But this bill really is up there,’ Simon said. ‘If there was a Mount Rushmore for election reform bills in the history of Minnesota going back beyond 1973, this would be on it.’

The experience of other states shows that pre-registration makes young people more likely to vote the first time they become eligible and raises the chance that voting will become a lifelong habit, Simon said. And he said automatic registration will build on legislation enacted earlier this year, to restore the voting rights of felons when they leave prison, by making them more likely to exercise that right.

‘We are setting an example,’ said Democratic Sen. Liz Boldon, of Rochester, the lead Senate author. ‘We are leading the way.’

The bill, dubbed the ‘Democracy for the People Act,’ passed the House on a party-line vote two weeks ago. The lead Republican on the House Elections Committee, Rep. Paul Torkelson, of Hanska, said at the time that it struck him more as a bill for ensuring Democratic Party victories. He said it violated a longstanding tradition in the Minnesota Legislature that election bills should be bipartisan to advance.

‘We know that many of our citizens are questioning the validity and the authenticity of our elections,’ Torkelson said at a news conference. ‘The work we do here should increase their confidence that our elections are being run fairly. And we don’t believe that anything in this bill increases that public confidence.’

The bill was last on the Senate’s agenda for the day, and sponsors said they expected the debate to go late into the night. While Senate Democrats hold just a one-vote majority, they expressed confidence that it would pass. Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is expected to sign it once it reaches his desk.

Democratic Senate Elections Committee Chair Jim Carlson, of Eagan, said bill also seeks to shed more light on money and politics with increased disclosure requirements. It also includes criminal penalties for intimidation of voters and interference with voting.

‘What we’ve seen over the past couple of years, and what we have seen over the last couple of months, it’s really that states across the country are making a choice,’ said Democratic Rep. Emma Greenman, of Minneapolis, the lead author in the House. ‘They’re choosing between a thriving multiracial, multigenerational, multiregional democracy, or they’re choosing something else.’

Greenman listed gerrymandering, restrictions on ballot access and expulsions of duly elected legislators as examples of what red states are doing. ‘In Minnesota we are choosing something different,’ she said.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

We decided that it was time to come up with a name for Silver Cross Index and Golden Cross Index crossovers their signal lines. We’ve noticed that Silver Cross Index crossovers are excellent flags to intermediate-term changes in direction.

We’ve decided to name these crossovers “Shifts”. A “Bear Shift” for a downside crossover the signal line and a “Bull Shift” for an upside crossover the signal line. These crossovers ‘shift’ the character of an index, sector or industry group from bullish to bearish or vice versa.

Today we had a Bear Shift on the SPY, SP600 (IJR), Nasdaq Composite (ONEQ), Dow Industrials (DIA) and the SP100 (OEX). The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has already seen a Bear Shift of the Silver Cross Index.

On the chart below we’ve marked some of the most recent Silver Cross Index (SCI) crossovers on the SPY. Remember we use a vertical red dotted line to indicate major market tops and a green vertical dotted line to denote major market bottoms. These downside Bear Shifts have been quite prescient.

With participation dropping off the map for %Stocks > 20/50/200-day EMAs, the Silver Cross Index will continue to decline as it measures how many stocks have a 20-day EMA above their 50-day EMA. Therefore, those %Stocks > 20/50-day EMAs need to at least be close to the Silver Cross Index percentage in order to see upside movement.

Conclusion: Direction changes are important on the Silver Cross and Golden Cross Indexes, but crossovers are particularly important. Today’s Silver Cross Index “Bear Shift” suggests we are in for more than a short-term decline.

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In this week’s edition of Trading Simplified, Dave shows his methodology in action by walking through the ups and downs of a recent trade and why you must follow your trading plan through thick and thin. He also introduced a new mystery chart that shows promise. He then resumed his series “The Wisdom Of Jesse Livermore,” explaining that Livermore had a great philosophy when it came to trading, but did not always follow it. Further, in spite of his “walk on water” status, he was a troubled individual. The takeaways included not getting angry at the market, being careful not to “transfer” knowledge, the map is not the territory, learning from your mistakes, the perils of paper trading, and the importance of being patient.

This video was originally broadcast on April 26, 2023. Click anywhere on the Trading Simplified logo above to watch on our dedicated show page, or at this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch this and past episodes on the StockCharts on-demand video service StockChartsTV.com — registration is free!

New episodes of Trading Simplified air on Wednesdays at 12:00pm ET on StockCharts TV. You can view all recorded episodes of the show at this link. Go to davelandry.com/stockcharts to access the slides for this episode and more. Dave can be contacted at davelandry.com/contact for any comments and questions.

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98.

Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.

Don’t believe an extended decline is beginning here. March 31 jumped above the previous high of March 6 with a “Sign of Strength” (noted with red arrows), which suggests a valid break to the upside and now the previous high (March 6 high near 405 SPY) should act as support (light-shaded pink area is support). The SPY is near the support now. Our thinking is that, as April is up 94% of the time in pre-election years, the support near 405 SPY will hold and the market will again try to rally. (Food for thought; In pre-election years like this year, if January was up–and it was up over 6% in 2023–then April is up 88% of the time.)

The bottom window is the VIX, which touched a new short-term low yesterday. Worthwhile tops in the SPX usually don’t form when the VIX touches to a new short term low. What can be troubling for the market is when the SPX trades at higher highs and the VIX trades at higher lows (circled in red on bottom window) where worthwhile tops can form. Page one suggests SPY is near support near the 405 level. If the market does rally from support and trades to new short-term high while VIX fails to trade to new short term low, we will see a negative divergence. If the market rallies to new short-term highs while VIX trades to new short-term lows, there will be a positive divergence.

Tim Ord,

Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. Book release “The Secret Science of Price and Volume” by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.

Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable; there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.

Charles Schwab (SCHW)’s month-long freefall that started on March 9 was quite a spectacle. It took place amid the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, which triggered a shockwave that impacted the regional banking industry all the way to Wall Street and Main Street.

After the initial hit, SCHW got sucker-punched with another 5% stock drop after Morgan Stanley downgraded the bank/brokerage. When the dust finally settled in early April, the stock was down over 39% from its 2023 highs.

“Chill, we got this,” to colloquially paraphrase Schwab’s CEO Walt Bettinger as he assured investors that even if deposit outflows get wild, the company can remain standing. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) even claimed that SCHW was able to cash in on the crisis as inflows went through the roof, so to speak.

It Ain’t Over Til It’s Over

Schwab’s Q1 FY 2023 results made a few on Wall Street choke on their morning coffee, but it wasn’t all that bad. If anything, the results showed that the bank/brokerage still had a lot of fight left, and with just enough financial juice to turn itself around from “sluggish” to “slugger.” 

Consider this: 

Higher interest rates lifted net interest income by 27% YoY—not the cash flow you’d expect from a collapsing company.Weekly inflows surged, benefiting directly from the banking jitters.Schwab also raked in assets with a massive amount of management fees, with over $1.1 billion collected in Q1, even in a lackluster market.

In short (and to quote the great Yogi Berra), “It ain’t over til it’s over.” 

A Double Bottom “Tripling” or Just “Failing”?

Schwab initially formed a double bottom pattern between April 5 and April 17.

That formation appears to be under threat. Note that this is taking place amid First Republic’s (FRC) 30% slide after posting earnings results on Monday, in which the bank mentioned a 40% drop in deposits.

Generally, double bottoms are bullish, but you shouldn’t overlook its 16% failure rate (according to analyst Thomas Bulkowski’s estimates). Traders looking to go long on Schwab are probably wondering if the stock is going to “triple,” partly as a result of the sentiment toward the overall industry (the Dow also took a -300 point hit), or if Schwab, on its own merits, hasn’t found its bottom yet (in short, a pattern failure)?

Looking at PerfCharts below, year-to-date, Schwab, far from First Republic, is still underperforming the regional banking (KRE) and larger banking (KBWB) industries.

CHART 1: OVERALL BANKING INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE. Charles Schwab is still underperforming the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

The RRG Charts give a clearer, yet bleaker, picture of what’s going on:

CHART 2: RRG OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY. This chart shows that the entire banking industry is in the lagging territory.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

The entire banking industry, along with Schwab, has entered Lagging territory, with FRC leading the pack, as expected.

Let’s take a closer look at Schwab’s “bottom.”

CHART 3: DOUBLE BOTTOM IN CHARLES SCHWAB STOCK. Will the double bottom chart pattern turn into a triple bottom, or will it fail? That remains to be seen. Given the banking industry turmoil, it may be a while before we get an answer.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For illustrative purposes only.

The initial double bottom formation is clearly in limbo. Whether it’s going to form an “ugly” double bottom, a triple bottom, another kind of formation (such as a Three Rising Valley pattern), or just straight-out fail—all of this will be answered in the following days. Market entry signals have therefore been suspended, all pending the outcome of whatever formation takes place.

The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) crossing in early April “was” generally bullish. The MACD histogram was in positive territory after the crossover, but the crossover took place well below the zero line. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows buying pressure building up after the second test of the double bottom formation. 

But still, the 50-day simple moving average crossing under the 200-day (i.e. Death Cross) didn’t give the most promising picture. And to top it all off, the First Republic Bank earnings debacle surely soured market sentiment, to a point where all three major US stock indexes took a major hit.

Still, Some Analysts Saying “Buy”?

Several prominent financial media figures and channels are looking at Schwab as an undervalued (potential) winner. It depends on whether you’re speculating on grounds of “investment” or “trading.”

Initially, Schwab’s scenario made for a good potential swing trade. But now, that picture has changed. And the wisest thing to do, at least for short-term profit-seeking, is to wait it out.

The Bottom Line

If you look at Schwab’s freefall, it can be captivating, especially if you’re a contrarian on the bear side of the market. Amid the chaos of the banking industry, not to mention the terrain of the market, Schwab’s fate remains uncertain.

While some analysts champion Schwab as an undervalued gem, it may be wise to bide your time before diving into murky waters. In the end, the market will render its verdict. And we’ll see whether Schwab emerges as a slugger or if it succumbs to the weight of its misfortunes.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Weak earnings and even worse conference calls drove UPS (UPS) and First Republic Bank (FRC) down right from the open, then even lower as the day unfolded. Between these stocks, two of market’s primary fears came to the forefront–a weakening consumer and problems in the banking system.

Further confirming that the market would not recover from these fears and a lower open was the price action in the TLT, which gapped higher and continued higher. TLT is still where risk-off equity money runs to hide and wait.

Lower interest rates, fear, and lower stocks gave GLD reasons to rally out of a reversal pattern. After testing the 184 level and breaking out of an inside day pattern, it’s set up for a potential run higher IF it can close over its nearby 10-DMA and then continue higher. Gold bulls should keep an eye on it.

UPS is the obvious reason that IYT was the biggest loser in the sector summary table today, and if you’ve been reading this Daily over the last couple of days, then the second biggest loser, discussed below, won’t surprise you.  Additionally, the intraday patterns we’ve been discussing based on the Opening Range did their job today by highlighting that it was not a good day to try to buy the lower open and instead, it would be a trend day lower.

The second biggest losing sector was, as we’ve been following, SMH. Today’s anticipated breakdown puts SMH well below its 50-DMA, while the SPY and QQQ are still above their 50-DMAs. Until it gets back over its 50-DMA or develops a bullish reversal pattern, this should be avoided.

Every sector was down today, so there are likely to be more trend-down days in the near term. Today was a good example of how to recognize and avoid them. Below, you’ll see the intraday charts of the SPY and QQQ, with the Opening Range levels marked by the red and green horizontal lines.

Today was a good example of an OR breakdown in the SPY that attempts to reverse, but it was not confirmed by the QQQ.

After the failure of the QQQ to trade back over its OR low, the retracements to the OR low pattern in both the SPY and QQQ became confirmed bearish trend continuation patterns, and the trend down day resumed with a vengeance.

This is the busiest period of earnings season, so every day has the potential to be filled with surprises. Keep an open mind and a disciplined approach to your trading.

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Mish in the Media

Mish and Benzinga discuss the current trading ranges and what might break them.

Mish discusses what she’ll be talking about at The Money Show, from April 24-26!

Mish walks you through technical analysis of TSLA and market conditions and presents an action plan on CMC Markets.

Mish presents two stocks to look at in this appearance on Business First AM — one bullish, one bearish.

Mish joins David Keller on the Thursday, May 13 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, where she shares her charts of high yield bonds, semiconductors, gold, and regional banks.

Mish joins Wolf Financial for this Twitter Spaces event, where she and others discuss their experiences as former pit traders.

Mish shares her views on natural gas, crude oil and a selection of ETFs in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish talks what’s next for the economy on Yahoo! Finance.

Mish joins Bob Lang of Explosive Options for a special webinar on what traders can expect in 2023!

Rosanna Prestia of The RO Show chats with Mish about commodities, macro and markets.

Mish and Charles Payne rip through lots of stock picks in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Coming Up:

April 24-26th: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas — two presentations and a book giveaway

April 28th: Live Coaching Complete Trader and TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides

May 2nd-5th: StockCharts TV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): The new range to watch is 405-410 on a closing basis.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support–180 resistance.Dow (DIA): Over the 23-month MA 333–support to hold.Nasdaq (QQQ): 306 support, over 320 better.Regional Banks (KRE): 44 now pivotal resistance.Semiconductors (SMH): 245 resistance, with support at 235.Transportation (IYT): Still under the 23-month MA with 224 resistance; 215 is Real Motion support.Biotechnology (IBB): 130 major pivotal area–135 resistance.Retail (XRT): 58-64 trading range to break one way or another.

Geoff Bysshe

MarketGauge.com

President