2023

The mandatory supervised driving period in North Carolina for young people before they can drive by themselves will be scaled back permanently after Gov. Roy Cooper said on Friday he’ll let a bill become law without his signature.

The General Assembly sent Cooper last month legislation addressing in part when a teen can move up from a learner’s permit to what’s called a limited provisional license and drive by themselves.

State law has required a young person to hold the permit for at least 12 months, although lawmakers reduced it to six months temporarily during the COVID-19 pandemic to address delayed driver’s education classes.

The law reverted to 12 months at the end of 2022, but legislators said they were still receiving complaints from parents whose children are trying to get to the next level of driving. So the latest measure reinstates the six-month minimum for the rest of 2023 before settling the time at nine months.

In a news release, Cooper recognized that the legislation passed the General Assembly by a large margin because it should help reduce waiting times for youths seeking their license.

But ‘I have concerns that this law could make our roads less safe and I encourage the Division of Motor Vehicles and the legislature to monitor its effects closely,’ the governor said. Cooper had until Friday night to sign the bill or veto it. Since he’ll do neither, it will become law.

Other rules remain in place. A young driver is eligible to obtain a learner’s permit at age 15 but must be at least 16 to move up to the limited provisional license. In between, the youth must complete 60 hours of supervised driving with an adult — usually a parent — and pass a road test.

The bill also would slightly ease passenger constraints for a limited provisional licensee so that the person could drive someone unrelated to them to and from school. This change begins Aug. 1. The Division of Motor Vehicles said later Friday that the supervised driving period change to six months will take effect starting Monday.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Politics

Biden nominee backs US-funded border wall in Jordan ‘to provide physical security’

President Biden’s nominee to serve as U.S. ambassador to Jordan said she supports U.S. funding to provide a border wall in the country, saying it provides the U.S. ally with ‘physical security.’ And a Republican senator highlighted its contrast with the administration’s opposition to a wall at the U.S. southern border.

Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., in a Senate hearing asked nominee Yael Lempert about $150 million provided to Jordan for border security in the fiscal year 2023 omnibus package, funding that is partially continued in the 2024 budget request. Lempert said she supports that request.

‘In fact, the omnibus last year provides for at least $150 million for border security in Jordan. It’s a large amount of taxpayer dollars. And if you think about the purpose of this, it’s to provide physical security, to keep people from illegally crossing into Jordan, isn’t that correct?’ Hagerty asked.

‘It is to provide physical security, to stop drug smugglers, to deal with the threat of Jordan’s neighbor, Syria. Obviously, the conflict there continues, and it’s a dangerous neighborhood,’ Lempert replied.

Hagerty asked if there is a belief that ‘this sort of funding is important and that this sort of physical security is effective.’

‘In the Jordanian context? I do believe that that is correct, senator,’ the nominee responded.

Hagerty then contrasted her stance and the position of the administration with its decision to largely halt border wall construction at the southern border in early 2021 even as the administration faced a historic migrant crisis at its own southern border.

‘I just think it’s an important lesson for us to learn, as Americans, that we’re spending United States taxpayer dollars to support border security in a country that we’re trying to build stronger relations with,’ Hagerty said. ‘I think we ought to be learning a lesson ourselves because there’s not a penny in the president’s budget to support our own border security here.’

While the budget does include funding for Customs and Border Protection, including technology, staffing and processing, Republicans have argued it does not do enough to secure the border, including the failure to build additional wall.

Republicans in the House recently unveiled legislation that would increase Border Patrol agents by 3,000 and restart funding for the border wall. The Biden administration, meanwhile, has accused Republicans of attempting to cut CBP funding with their own proposed spending cuts.

The debate over the border wall, even within the administration, was on display in March when Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz said he disagreed with the decision to stop construction of the wall at the southern border.

‘I do not believe in a wall from sea to shining sea, but I do believe in infrastructure and barrier systems in concentrated areas, especially urban areas,’ Ortiz said.

‘And it’s always been our practice, from 2006 when I was an agent in charge in West Texas to now. But I also don’t agree that we should tear down a perfectly good barrier system to install something that is based upon requirements that we developed over the last few years.’

Adam Shaw is a politics reporter for Fox News Digital, primarily covering immigration and border security.

He can be reached at adam.shaw2@fox.com or on Twitter.

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Politics

Ted Cruz challenger said it would’ve been ‘better’ if Second Amendment ‘had not been written’

A challenger to Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz said it would have been ‘better’ if the Second Amendment ‘hadn’t been written.’

In a resurfaced video from 2018, Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, weighed in on the right to bear arms and said he did not believe the Second Amendment should have been written in the first place.

‘Within the confines of the accurately applied Second Amendment, we can do everything we want to do, as far as regulating weapons and all that,’ Allred said. ‘The Second Amendment does have, in the first sentence, in order to maintain a ‘well-regulated militia,’ and ‘the right to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”

‘And it’s two ideas there. The recent trend has only been to focus on the right to bear arms instead of the well-regulated militia part,’ Allred continued in the video, which was first resurfaced by Breitbart. ‘So I just think we have to accurately apply it.’

‘Would it be better if it had not been written? Of course. But there’s no chance that we’re going to repeal any of the Bill of Rights amendments,’ the Texas Democrat said.

‘I’m not just talking about politically, it wouldn’t happen. It’s not within the bounds of reality in this country,’ he added. ‘But what we could do, I think, is there’s plenty of room within there to not allow people to have ‘weapons of war.”

Allred’s campaign manager Paige Hutchinson told Fox News Digital, ‘Congressman Allred’s record on this is clear: He supports common-sense reforms and respects the rights of law-abiding gun owners.’

‘He proudly supported Senator Cornyn’s bipartisan bill to keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people, which Ted Cruz voted against,’ Hutchinson said. ‘A highly edited clip from six years ago is not in any way an accurate reflection of Allred’s position.’

Allred voted for Texas GOP Sen. John Cornyn’s Bipartisan Safer Communities Act that was signed into law last year and bolstered states’ red flag laws, enhance background checks for gun buyers under 21, add penalties for some gun criminals and provide funding for a variety of health and mental health-related programs.

Cornyn’s bill also addresses the so-called ‘boyfriend loophole,’ which is a gap in federal law that means spousal domestic abusers can have gun rights taken away but not unmarried ones.

On Wednesday, Allred, a former NFL linebacker who later worked in President Obama’s administration before defeating Republican Rep. Pete Sessions in 2018 in Texas’s 32nd Congressional District, which includes parts of the city of Dallas and its northeastern suburbs, became the first major Democrat to jump into the Senate race against Cruz, who is running for a third six-year term representing Texas.

Allred’s campaign on Friday said it raised $2 million in the first 36 hours since launching his campaign, but while his $2 million haul is significant, the Texas Democrat will need to keep the aggressive pace up. Cruz began the cycle with $3.3 million in cash on-hand, while bringing in an additional $1.2 million in the first quarter of this year.

Cruz has become a Texas powerhouse in the Senate after his victory over former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, in 2018.

Fox News Digital’s Elizabeth Elkind and Tyler Olson contributed to this report.

Houston Keene is a politics writer for Fox News Digital. Story tips can be sent to Houston.Keene@Fox.com and on Twitter: @HoustonKeene

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Stocks

Market Holds Up Well as Money Rotates Out of Offensive Sectors

While the S&P 500 struggles to push beyond its overhead resistance in the area around 4200, money is rotating out of offensive sectors into defensive AND sensitive.

On the weekly chart, two trading ranges are starting to emerge. The first one is the more narrow one, between roughly 3800-4200. The second one is a little broader and shows up between 3600 and 4300.

In the near term, a break above 4200 will very likely find resistance only 100 points higher, while a break below 3800 will find renewed support near 3600.

Zooming in on the daily chart for $SPX, you can seen that, in the last two weeks, a new support level has emerged at 4050. The actionable takeaways from these observations are twofold. In case 4200 gives way, a rally may be expected towards the next overhead barrier near 4300, while downside risk will be limited by the old resistance, now support, near 4200. On the flip side, when the recent lows at 4050 are broken downward, a further decline toward the lower boundary of the range near 3800 seems to be in the cards.

Given the strong seasonality for the S&P 500 in May as discussed in Sector Spotlight last Tuesday, in combination with the market holding up well despite some news grenades being dropped here and there, I am leaning towards an upward break.

Under the hood, an interesting sector rotation is underway.

Offensive Sectors

The RRGs above show the rotation for cap-weighted offensive sectors versus the rotation of their equal-weight counterparts. The negative rotation is clearly visible in both charts, justifying the conclusion that investors are moving away from the more cyclical stocks at the moment.

Defensive Sectors

These two RRGs show the rotation for the defensive sectors, and although the rotational patterns are all positive, hence in favor of defensive sectors. It is clearly visible that the equal-weight sectors are ahead of the cap-weighted sectors. This suggests that the cap-weighted defensive sectors have recently been held back by the larger-weight stocks in them, while the equal-weight sectors were already showing a rotation that took them through improving and well into the leading quadrant.

Such a rotation usually signals a more risk-off scenario, which would be in line with the observation of money flowing out of offensive sectors (into defensive) but does not really align with the S&P pushing against resistance and looking to break higher.

This is where the third group of sectors comes in.

Sensitive Sectors

This group of sensitive sectors, which consists of Information Technology, Communication Services, Industrials, and Energy, seems to be the decisive factor at the moment.

The two RRGs above show the strength of Information Technology and Communication Services. Both the cap-weighted and equal-weighted versions are inside the leading quadrant. With Technology being the largest sector in the universe, this creates a big positive pull for the S&P 500 itself.

In the cap-weighted index, Industrials and Communication Services are pretty much similar with 8%, which offsets this rotation on the cap-weighted RRG. On the equal-weight RRG, the difference in position between RGI and XLI suggests that larger stocks are dragging down XLI while the industrials sector, in general, remains on the right-hand side of the RRG.

Conclusion

All in all, the current sector rotation shows a move from offense to defense, which warrants some caution with regard to the S&P 500. However, the current strength of, especially Technology, Communication Services, and to a lesser degree, Industrials, tips the scale to the positive side and makes me look for an upward break and an initial move toward 4300.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend, –Julius

Stocks

MEM TV: Strong Earnings Push Deeply Oversold Stocks Higher

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews the broader markets to determine where we may be headed over the near term. She also explores the bottom fishing taking place among former leaders that have sold off sharply but are now reporting strong earnings.

This video was originally broadcast on May 5, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch on our on-demand website, StockChartsTV.com, using this link.

New episodes of The MEM Edge air Fridays at 5:30pm PT on StockCharts TV. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link. You can also receive a 4-week free trial of her MEM Edge Report by clicking the image below.

Stocks

Quit Trading Without This! Track Entries & Stops on the Chart

On this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s StockCharts in Focus, Grayson reaches back into his bag of StockCharts tips and tricks to show you how to track entry points, stop levels and price targets directly on your charts. These simple yet powerful tools will greatly enhance your position management by putting those crucial price levels front and center on your screen. Grayson explains how he uses these exact tools to follow his own trades all the way from potential target to open position.

This video was originally broadcast on May 5, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in Focus page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch on our on-demand website, StockChartsTV.com, using this link.

New episodes of StockCharts in Focus air Fridays at 3pm ET on StockCharts TV. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Stocks

Is This a Turning Point?

On this week’s edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes, TG takes you inside the Moxie Indicator trading room to show you how he’s been navigating this week of large up and down moves. It has been a fun and interesting several days as the market twists itself into a pretzel, but TG has managed to stay with it and accurately take trades that have captured both the short and long sides of the market.

This video was originally broadcast on May 5, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, iOS, Chromecast, Android, and more!

New episodes of Moxie Indicator Minutes air Fridays at 1:15pm ET on StockCharts TV. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link.

Stocks

Nasdaq 100 A-D Line Divergence

Last week, I addressed the divergence that was evident between the share price of QQQ and its equal-weighted cousin, QQEW. Both of those ETFs are designed to track the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX). This same divergence is evident in this week’s chart, which shows the daily A-D Line for the component stocks which make up the Nasdaq 100 Index.

An A-D Line is a cumulative running total of all daily Advances and Declines. It changes each day by the value for the daily breadth (A-D). Because it is describing the behaviors of a population of stocks, it is in a category of indicators known as a “diffusion index.”

Years ago, I started a project to compile data on all of the component stocks in the NDX, just because I thought it might be interesting to track the A-D data and other data. It was a lot of work fetching price data on those 100 stocks, plus going back as far as I could to track changes in the components of that index and assemble the price data on the departed issues. It remains an ongoing task to keep up with splits and index component changes.

The A-D data for the NDX stocks turned out to be surprisingly not as useful as I had hoped. Most of the time, it does whatever the NDX itself is doing. The whole point of looking at an A-D Line is to get different answers from what prices are saying, and hopefully some useful divergences at important turning points. So if a particular A-D Line just does whatever prices are doing, there is not much value in studying it. One can still get useful information from the A-D data in other ways, such as looking at the acceleration taking place. Because of that, the McClellan Oscillator based on these A-D data is quite useful, and I feature it regularly in my Daily Edition.

Something different is happening now, and we are seeing a rare divergence between the NDX A-D Line and the NDX itself. This almost never happens, which makes it all the more noteworthy, and the message is that there is an unusual disagreement right now between the big cap stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), which drive the price level of the NDX, versus the behavior of the other index components.

An A-D Line is useful because it helps us detect the health of the liquidity stream, which affects all stocks. But good or bad liquidity affects the small and least-deserving ones first. So when illiquidity comes around, it picks off the weak first, while the strong can still muscle their way in to get a drink. In the A-D data, every stock gets an equal vote, the weak ones the same as the strong ones. That is why the messages one can get from A-D data can sometimes be so useful.

This point cannot be made, however, for the message from the A-D Line for the overall Nasdaq market. It has such a tremendously bearish bias that it makes any messages one might take from it unreliable. I like to stump fellow analysts sometimes by asking, “When was the last time that the Nasdaq’s A-D Line made a new all-time high?” This is a trick question, because the Nasdaq’s A-D Line started downward from the beginning of the data in 1972 and it has never made it back to that level. So it has not ever made a new all-time high.

This negative bias stems from the fact that the Nasdaq has looser listing standards than the NYSE (the A-D Line for which is very useful). If a stock is going to come public and then go broke, it is more likely to do that on the Nasdaq, and every down day from IPO to delisting contributes to the Declines column.

It can still be useful sometimes to track the acceleration taking place in the Nasdaq’s A-D data, and so a McClellan Oscillator for those data can be useful. But the raw A-D Line is so unreliable in the messages it gives as to be functionally unusable. With that said, I will note that the overall Nasdaq’s A-D Line this week made another new all-time low. So it is definitely NOT saying that there is hidden strength in the market.

Stocks

Is This Market Resilient Or What?

Have you ever stood at the edge of the Grand Canyon and wondered about all the history of each cave or ridge? What about the multiple valleys that ultimately drain to the Colorado River? It is a daunting site to behold, but as the winds blow past you and the hawks soar overhead, you can quickly see that just one viewpoint doesn’t do it justice.

Photo: Greg Schnell

This weeks price action in the stock market reminds me that there are multiple perspectives of where we are in the stock market journey. Everyone’s viewpoint is different, and that’s what makes a market. Technology investors see one perspective. Commodity investors see another. Bank dividend investors are seeing a new view as well.

I went to look and see what were the top performing industries over the last week while the banks were imploding and it was travel and leisure, hotels, and gaming. I had no idea that the resilience of those groups could hold up a market.

Financials:

Financials are breaking down, both big and small. Financials used to be important, but apparently they do not matter as the $SPX touched a fresh 2023 high last week.The charts of C,WFC, and BAC don’t look nearly as healthy as JPM. The regionals are bombing out, and few might get merged this weekend. I think we have all seen the KBE and KRE ETF charts. The main point of the picture below is that JPM is holding up. The others are not.

Here is the banking index. That 2010- 2023 trend looks broken. Even by just ignoring the COVID situation, this looks broke and a test of $60 wouldn’t be hard to imagine. The bottom panel shows 15 year relative strength lows.

The broker dealers, usually considered as one of the leading industries looks better than the banks. Does the trend line hold? The PPO is going below zero again. This is a chart that suggests to me, this problem gets bigger.

Industrial Metals

The industrial metals commodity index by Goldman Sachs is making lower lows and lower highs since January. Is this just China managing commodity demand to load up on cheap commodities before the next run starts? That would be no different that the US government managing oil pricing by releasing the strategic petroleum reserve. So this isn’t taboo, but other nations does it on a lot more commodities than just oil.

Crude oil

Crude oil continues to struggle. That rally last Friday, was just that. It was so-o-o last week as crude slid below $65 this week. Before market open on May 5, this chart shows crude down 10% on the week at that isn’t even the bottom of the candle.

$SPX price earning ratio

The price/earnings ratio for the stock market, sitting up near some of the most stretched extremes in history, was barely discussed at the CMT Association meeting. Purple is current, and the other three lines are where it would be based on lower P/E ratios. We have lived in a stretched world since 2014, so why would that view matter now? I show this chart to demonstrate that if we reverted to 20, we would be below 3500 and if we reverted to a P/E of 15, 2600 is in play. It is not uncommon for recessions to cause a valuation reset of the market broadly.

Bonds and the yield curve:

At the CMT Association meeting, the yield curve or the history of the yield curve was never mentioned in the conversations and presentations I sat in on. It didn’t fit with the bullish narrative of the $SPX and $NDX at 2023 highs. By the way, most portfolio managers think we are going much higher (but don’t mention the yield curve).

Actually, I was amazed that no one even mentioned it, even though the whole bank valuation issue right now is hold to maturity (HTM) bonds. Bonds are the problem, not the equity market.

The real deal is bonds add another perspective, much like the Grand Canyon viewpoints. Change a view point and it looks totally different. We find an entirely different view over in the yield curve. Bonds are one of the four major asset classes, but only Louise Yamada ventured there, showing a 40-year break of the interest rate trend line for long bonds.

The current yield curve did not seem to matter, nor did the history of the yield curve. So let me add a few yield curve charts here. The vertical line on the right side at year 2000 is the top yield curve line on the left. The vertical line at 2007 is the bottom yield curve line on the left.

So what does the yield curve line look like right now? It is the bottom line on this chart below, comparing with the 2000 top. They look similar to me.

Why does that matter? Let me use another chart to explain what is happening. The 30 year yield is now higher than the middle or the belly of the curve. This is changing rapidly as the yield curve starts to realign. If you look on the right side in the zoom panel, the 30-year yields are starting to hold above the middle of the curve yields. The 30-year yield may cross above the 2-year soon. But look at the congestion zones when the yields get tight. The equity market response is shown as this starts to broaden out. $SPX is on the lower panel.

Fed Rate

Now that a large portion of money managers assume the Fed is done raising rates, where does this leave us? The chart that makes a big impression on me is the rate of change of the Fed funds rate shown in green in the lower panel. This isn’t the rate of change of something like lumber. This is the rate of change for one of the most tracked interest rates in the world.

The assumption that the entire business world can adapt rapidly to absorb one of the fastest rate changes ever, does not seem plausible to me. As this rolls through boardrooms across the world, when will it crack the equity market investors? So far, the equity markets are not blinking.

I am on another viewpoint. Wide-eyed, staring over my view, suggesting something is amiss and about to fall sharply. Will it happen in May or June? Or will it take until October? I don’t know, but I don’t see this working out ‘perfectly’ as we try to go to take out the 2021 highs.

To me, it looks like a setup we should be cautious of. When the market continues to struggle to make higher highs here after six weeks, is this just a consolidation, or a final realization that its about to get messy?

If you would like more perspectives on this, I’ll be holding a monthly conference call for clients on Sunday. At Osprey Strategic, you can try out our services for just $7 for the first month. I’m big fan of protecting capital until the time is right to step back in. Day traders need not test the waters. They won’t find anything they like there. This is for investors with large amounts of capital with the wisdom and patience to wait for a better backdrop.

Business

Jenny Craig tells employees it will shut its doors after four decades

Jenny Craig will close its doors after four decades in the weight loss and nutrition business, according to internal communications to employees reviewed by NBC News.

In an email sent to employees late Tuesday, the company said it will close “due to its inability to secure additional financing.” Jenny Craig corporate and salaried field employees’ last day will be Friday, and hourly center employees’ last day working was Tuesday. The company operated about 500 company-owned and franchised stores in the United States and Canada, according to H.I.G. Capital when it acquired Jenny Craig for an undisclosed amount in April 2019. It now employs more than 1,000 people.

Last week, corporate employees at the company’s Carlsbad, California, office received a WARN Act notice that the company would be closing the office June 24, but may close as soon as Friday. A FAQ was also sent by Jenny Craig to employees, explaining that it would wind down physical operations to transition to an e-commerce model.

For the past two weeks, Jenny Craig had been running out of money as it searched for a buyer. Bloomberg Law reported last month that the company was pursuing a sale. Two current Jenny Craig corporate employees say they fear the company will file for bankruptcy by the end of the week.

Neither Jenny Craig nor H.I.G. Capital, a $55 billion private equity firm, have responded to requests for comment.

Jenny Craig was founded in 1983 to help people lose weight, and the brand became a household name for its weight loss program. The program provided special menus designed by chefs and nutritionists to help consumers lose weight. The company recruited celebrities to front the brand, including actors Kirstie Alley, Valerie Bertinelli and Jason Alexander, and singer-songwriter Mariah Carey.

The company has faced increased competition recently after a handful of drugs that can help people lose weight, such as Wegovy, Rybelsus and Ozempic, hit the market promising to help consumers shed pounds. The core of Jenny Craig’s client-facing operations happened mostly at its physical centers, according to employees, but consumers generally have been pivoting more toward online services in recent years.

Last week after reports about the potential layoffs, a Jenny Craig spokesperson told NBC News that the company “is embarking on the next phase of our business to evolve with the changing landscape of today’s consumers. Like many other companies, we’re currently transitioning from a brick-and-mortar retail business to a customer-friendly, e-commerce driven model. We will have more details to share in the coming weeks as our plans are solidified.”

There is no indication in the most recent communication to employees that the transition to an e-commerce model will still happen.

Jenny Craig employees say there was no indication preceding the past two weeks that the company was spiraling. One month ago, the company was posting job openings on LinkedIn, and one employee says she was given a raise and new training just a few weeks prior.

Jenny Craig’s policy is to provide severance pay to laid-off employees “based on job level and tenure with the company,” according to the FAQ document it sent out last week.

“However, at this time, it is highly unlikely that these will be paid,” it said.

The company told employees in the termination letter that they will receive a ‘final paycheck, including your full compensation earned through your last day of work and all accrued, unused paid time off.’

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