Archive

2023

Browsing

AI experts and tech-inclined political scientists are sounding the alarm on the unregulated use of AI tools going into an election season.  

Generative AI can not only rapidly produce targeted campaign emails, texts or videos, it also could be used to mislead voters, impersonate candidates and undermine elections on a scale and at a speed not yet seen.

‘We’re not prepared for this,’ warned A.J. Nash, vice president of intelligence at the cybersecurity firm ZeroFox. ‘To me, the big leap forward is the audio and video capabilities that have emerged. When you can do that on a large scale, and distribute it on social platforms, well, it’s going to have a major impact.’

Among the many capabilities of AI, here are a few that will have significance ramifications with elections and voting: automated robocall messages, in a candidate’s voice, instructing voters to cast ballots on the wrong date; audio recordings of a candidate supposedly confessing to a crime or expressing racist views; video footage showing someone giving a speech or interview they never gave. 

Fake images designed to look like local news reports, falsely claiming a candidate dropped out of the race.

‘What if Elon Musk personally calls you and tells you to vote for a certain candidate?’ said Oren Etzioni, the founding CEO of the Allen Institute for AI, who stepped down last year to start the nonprofit AI2. ‘A lot of people would listen. But it’s not him.’

Petko Stoyanov, global chief technology officer at Forcepoint, a cybersecurity company based in Austin, Texas, has predicted that groups looking to meddle with U.S. democracy will employ AI and synthetic media to erode trust.

‘What happens if an international entity — a cybercriminal or a nation state — impersonates someone? What is the impact? Do we have any recourse?’ Stoyanov said. ‘We’re going to see a lot more misinformation from international sources.’

AI-generated political disinformation already has gone viral online ahead of the 2024 election, from a doctored video of Biden appearing to give a speech attacking transgender people to AI-generated images of children supposedly learning satanism in libraries.

AI images appearing to show Trump’s mug shot also fooled some social media users even though the former president didn’t take one when he was booked and arraigned in a Manhattan criminal court for falsifying business records. Other AI-generated images showed Trump resisting arrest, though their creator was quick to acknowledge their origin.

Rep. Yvette Clarke, D-N.Y., has introduced legislation that would require candidates to label campaign advertisements created with AI. Clark has also sponsored legislation that would require anyone creating synthetic images to add a watermark indicating the fact.

Some states have offered their own proposals for addressing concerns about deepfakes.

Clarke said her greatest fear is that generative AI could be used before the 2024 election to create a video or audio that incites violence and turns Americans against each other.

‘It’s important that we keep up with the technology,’ Clarke told The Associated Press. ‘We’ve got to set up some guardrails. People can be deceived, and it only takes a split second. People are busy with their lives and they don’t have the time to check every piece of information. AI being weaponized, in a political season, it could be extremely disruptive.’

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A busload of migrants from Texas was unloaded at the Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, where Vice President Kamala Harris’s home is located at Number One Observatory Circle, according to reports.

An ABC local news station in Washington, D.C. tweeted videos of migrants getting off the bus and grabbing their belongings from the storage area underneath.

This is not the first time Texas Governor Greg Abbott has sent a bus full of immigrants from the U.S.-Mexico border to the vice president’s home.

A bus of migrants was dropped off outside of Harris’s home on Christmas in 2022. Migrants were also bused to the Naval Observatory in September and October. 

The governor began sending migrants from border cities to the nation’s capital in April 2022 to pressure the Biden administration to act on immigration enforcement and border security.

Abbott said in a letter to President Biden at the time that his policies ‘leave many people in the bitter, dangerous cold as a polar vortex moves into Texas.’

‘Texas has borne a lopsided burden caused by your open border policies,’ Abbott added.

As Title 42 was getting ready to expire last Thursday, Abbott spoke with Fox News’s Jesse Waters, pledging to continue sending buses full of migrants to liberal northern municipalities, including New York and Chicago.

‘There will be more coming,’ Abbott said of the buses his state particularly dispatches. ‘There will be more going to New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and other places across the country.’

The governor also provided the latest stats from Operation Lone Star, saying Texas was doing what no other state has done before to protect communities as the president ends Title 42.

Those stats suggest there were 373,000 apprehensions, 28,000 criminal arrests, 402 million lethal fentanyl doses seized and over 17,600 migrants bused to sanctuary cities.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

California’s reparations task force is calling for the state legislature to require all cities and counties with allegedly segregated neighborhoods to submit all their real estate ordinances to a state agency for approval based on whether they maintain or lessen ‘residential racial segregation.’

The task force, created by state legislation signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2020, formally approved last weekend its final recommendations to the California Legislature, which will decide whether to enact the measures and send them to the governor’s desk to be signed into law.

The recommendations include several proposals meant to address ‘housing segregation’ and ‘unjust property takings’ that contributed to alleged systemic racist against Black Californians. Among the most controversial of the housing proposals is one that would seemingly hand over control of local land use decisions to a state agency that would approve ordinances based on whether they maintain or decrease segregation. 

‘Residential zoning ordinances have been used for decades in California to prevent African Americans from moving into neighborhoods, thereby maintaining residential segregation,’ the reparations committee writes in the final report outlining its proposals. ‘Various laws were also used to prevent additional housing from being built, effectively shutting out African Americans.’

To address local zoning laws that ‘reinforce and recreate this systemic housing segregation,’ the task force continues, the legislature should identify California cities and counties that have historically redlined neighborhoods – areas flagged as risky investments where residents are therefore denied financial services such as loans or insurance – and whose ‘current levels of residential racial segregation are statistically similar to the degree of segregation in that city or county when it was redlined.’

After these areas are identified, the task force calls on the legislature to ‘require identified cities and counties to submit all residential land use ordinances for review and approval by a state agency, with the agency rejecting (or requiring modification of) the ordinance if the agency finds that the proposed ordinance will maintain or exacerbate levels of residential racial segregation.’

In other words, if a city or county with a neighborhood deemed segregated wanted to implement an official change involving real estate, that change would need to be approved by a state agency based on whether it made the area more racially diverse.

The task force recommends the removal of this process for ‘additional review and approval’ of the flagged cities and counties only if the city or county ‘eliminates a certain degree of housing segregation in its geographic territory.’

However, the reparations committee suggests an alternative option as well for such localities: creating an ‘administrative appeal board to review challenges to developmental permitting decisions or zoning laws’ and basing decisions on whether development permits and zoning requirements are deemed ‘to maintain or reinforce residential racial segregation.’

Beyond an official review process, the task force also proposes increasing home ownership among Black Californians by providing assistance through either direct financial aid or subsidized down payments, below-market-rate mortgages, and homeowner’s insurance. 

Another recommendation is to provide a so-called ‘right to return’ for Black residents ‘displaced’ by development projects, ‘racially restrictive covenants,’ ‘state-sanctioned violence,’ and ‘racial terror’ to come back to those areas to live.

‘The task force recommends the legislature enact measures to support a right to return for those displaced by agency action, restrictive covenants, and racial terror that drove African Americans from their homes,’ the committee writes. ‘The right to return should give the victims of these purges and their descendants preference in renting or owning property in the area of redevelopment. The right to return should extend to all agency-assisted housing and business opportunities in the redevelopment project area.’

The task force additionally wants state lawmakers to give ‘preference in rental housing, home ownership, and business opportunities for those who were displaced or excluded from renting or owning property in agency-assisted housing and business opportunities developed in or adjacent to communities formerly covered by restrictive covenants.’ This preference should extend to the families and descendants of those allegedly displaced by ‘agency-assisted development,’ according to the report.

The committee’s final recommendations include a host of other housing-related proposals – such as repealing policies limiting those with criminal records from renting property, funding housing-focused anti-racism education programs, and establishing diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) certification programs for affordable housing contractors, providers, and decision makers.

California is no stranger to controversial housing measures, especially those in which the state seeks to wrest control from local authorities. Indeed, California has imposed quotas on local governments to provide land for housing, particularly for lower-income families, and to streamline permits for these projects. Most of the state’s 482 cities are complying – but not all, particularly in the suburbs.

Many of the communities seeking to thwart the housing mandate are overwhelmingly Democratic areas around San Francisco, but the one catching the most flak from Newsom’s office is the city of Huntington Beach, a Republican area in Orange County that’s openly resisting the quota.

‘The city has a duty to protect the quality and lifestyle of the neighborhoods that current owners have already bought into and for the future sustainability of Huntington Beach,’ City Councilman Pat Burns wrote in a letter to colleagues earlier this year. ‘Radical redevelopment in already-established residential neighborhoods is not only a threat to quality and lifestyle, but to the value of the adjacent and neighboring properties.’

Huntington Beach Mayor Tony Strickland, a Republican, echoed that sentiment at a meeting last month. 

‘People don’t want an urban community here,’ he said. ‘I believe if we just went along, it will have a severe negative impact on our community’s quality of life.’

Days later, Newsom, Attorney General Rob Bonta, and the Department of Housing and Community Development jointly announced a motion amending a lawsuit from March with the goal of holding Huntington Beach accountable for violating the state Housing Element Law. The law requires local governments to adopt housing plans that include sufficient opportunities for development.

California is seeking penalties and injunctive relief, as well as suspension of the city’s authority to issue building permits and a court order mandating the approval of certain residential projects until the city comes into compliance with the law.

‘Huntington Beach continues to fail its residents,’ Newsom, a Democrat, said in a statement at the time. ‘Every city and county needs to do their part to bring down the high housing and rent costs that are impacting families across this state. California will continue taking every step necessary to ensure everyone is building their fair share of housing and not flouting state housing laws at the expense of the community.’

‘California is in the midst of a housing crisis, and time and time again, Huntington Beach has demonstrated they are part of the problem by defiantly refusing every opportunity to provide essential housing for its own residents,’ added Bonta. ‘The city’s refusal last week to adopt a housing element in accordance with state law is just the latest in a string of willfully illegal actions by the city – decisions that worsen our housing crisis and harm taxpayers and Huntington Beach residents… We’ll use every legal tool available to hold the city accountable and enforce state housing laws.’

However, several cities across California don’t have certified, compliant housing elements, according to the state’s housing tracker, leading Strickland to accuse the Newsom administration of singling out his city.

‘The fact that the attorney general is singling out Huntington Beach only strengthens the city’s arguments in court that the state is not following the law with these housing mandates,’ the mayor said in a statement last month. ‘These regular state press releases announcing legal actions against Huntington Beach may grab headlines, but they do not intimidate or deter the city, and they have no effect in the court of law, where these conflicts of law will ultimately be decided.’

Earlier this month, Newsom sued the city of Elk Grove for not approving housing projects for the homeless.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Interest rate-sensitive and big tech stocks are seeing positive money flows. but the market’s breadth is suddenly crashing as bond yields test their recent lows.

You know trading is dull when stock traders talk about the bond market. But that’s where the action is these days, other than the Nasdaq 100, which no one pays much attention to anymore. So as the sell in May and go away crowd starts chanting their usual seasonal song, the contrarian in me is slugging more coffee then ever in order to home in on whatever is working, which is limited these days.

On the macro end, even perma-bulls (are there any left?), along with those who don’t look at bond charts, can see the economy is slowing. Last week’s data was clear enough:

A slowing rate of rise in CPIA similar slowing rate of rise in PPI, with the processed good for intermediate demand component posting a negative growth rate for the yearJobless claims hitting the highest level since they bottomed out in September 2022

Moreover, jobless claims rose the most, with California, Massachusetts, Missouri, Texas, and New York. Tennessee and North Carolina, two other sunbelt states, joined Texas, coming in at 15 and 16 on the list. California, Massachusetts, and Texas all have heavy tech company presences.

Watching the Sunbelt 

Of course, I’m keeping a close eye on the sunbelt for two reasons. First, the sunbelt’s economy has done well over the last few years, as the migration to them has bolstered housing-related industries. Second, this is where the job creation has been of late. Thus, if jobs start to falter in the sunbelt, the odds of a recession will rise.

In Texas, the Austin area has been hit hard as the layoffs in the tech sector have extended there. Even big players like 3M (MMM) are shedding real estate in the city to go along with the phasing out of 500 jobs. MMM’s woes are not difficult to understand, as its global strategy and heavy presence in China, where the post-COVID economy is still having some problems, have become its Achilles’ heel.

The stock continues to hover near its recent lows and is showing little sign of perking up. All of which adds up to bond traders licking their chops as they see inflation slowing, rising jobless claims, and a Federal Reserve which may be forced to stop its rate hikes, once and for all.

From a trading standpoint, it’s useful to keep some money in bonds and related areas of the market. I’ve recommended several ways to do that on my service. You can have a look with a free trial.

Bonds Holds Near New Yield Lows

The bond market is betting on a slowing economy. And last week’s data helped that viewpoint. On the other hand, bond traders aren’t fully convinced yet, as the 3.3% yield continues to be the floor on yields for now. A decisive move below 3.3% would likely lead to a further decline in yields.

Certainly, that would be a positive for the bond market, but the weak data that would push yields to those levels would be significant, almost certainly weak enough to strongly suggest a recession.

As I’ve noted here for several weeks, the long-term relationship between the U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), mortgage rates (MORTGAGE), and the Homebuilder sector (SPHB) remains intact, as the recent fall in yields and mortgage rates has again led to a rise in the homebuilder sector.

For an in-depth comprehensive outlook on the homebuilder sector, click here.

Interest Rate-Sensitive Sectors and Big Tech See Positive Money Flows

Meanwhile, traditional interest rate-sensitive sectors in the stock market are confirming the currently falling bond yields, and are waiting for a break below that key 3.3% yield in TNX.

In addition to the move into interest rate-sensitive areas, you can see selective money into big tech. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), home to Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and the rest of the big tech posse, is near a major breakout, with investors pricing in layoffs and cost-cutting measures as potential profit boosters for the companies. Moreover, there is the current AI-related buzz that is also fueling interest in the sector.

The traditionally interest rate-sensitive utility sector (XLU) is also answering the bond market’s siren call. XLU is trading well off of its lows and is on the verge of a breakout as it tests the key resistance level near $70. This is where the 200-day moving average and a large Volume-by-Price bar (VBP) are hunkered down. A move above this area would be bullish, and would likely happen if TNX breaks below 3.3%.

On Balance Volume (OBV) and Accumulation Distribution (ADI) are both trending higher, confirming the bullish money flow.

You can see a similar technical picture, albeit to a lesser degree, in the real estate investment trusts (IYR). The situation in real estate is mixed as commercial real estate (CRE) is struggling while the multifamily apartment and residential sector is doing much better. I described the changing landscape in the REIT sector in my latest Your Daily Five video.  In fact, I have just added three REIT plays to my portfolio. Get the details with a free trial to my service here.

NYAD Breaks Down

The New York Stock Exchange Advance=Decline line (NYAD) rolled over at the end of last week with a nasty-looking break below its 50-day moving average. It looks headed for a test of its 200-day moving average. A sustained break below the 200-day line would be very negative for the market.

In contrast, the S&P 500 (SPX) went nowhere. The index has remained in what has become a familiar trading range, between 4100 and 4200 for several weeks as the heavily weighted big-tech stocks, which are also in the Nasdaq 100 index (see below) are holding things up. On Balance Volume (OBV), however, looks to be turning lower, which means sellers are starting to increase in number. Accumulation Distribution (ADI) remain very constructive for SPX as short sellers pare positions.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) remains in an uptrend. The index closed above 13,400, extending its breakout above 13,200. I’m watching what happens to OBV and ADI in the short term, however. If they both turn lower, this rally may be ending as well.

VIX Holds Steady

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been stable lately trading well below 20. This is a positive for the markets, as it shows short sellers are staying away.

When VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures in order to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity Remains Stable Despite Rate Hike

The market’s liquidity is moving sideways as the Eurodollar Index (XED) remains below 94.75, but did not make a new low after the Fed’s rate hike. That’s a positive for now.

A move above 95 will be a bullish development. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks. On the other hand, in the current environment, it’s more of a sign that fear is rising and investors are raising cash.

To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Price Action

Clearly, the most important aspect of the stock market is price action. That’s where it all begins. Currently, I like the daily and weekly charts, but we do still have one very important price resistance level to clear:

S&P 500 – Weekly:

There are obvious improvements on this chart in 2023. First, the downtrend was broken in January and, after retesting the breakdown line, we’ve seen prices move to higher highs. Next, the PPO broke above centerline resistance. It quickly returned to centerline support, but instead of rolling right back over with more bearish momentum, PPO moved back to a higher high – just like price action. That tells us, at least for now, that bulls remain completely in charge. Could that change? Of course and that’s exactly what the bears are hoping for. Personally, I need to see it first.

I see the market as range bound. I believe 3775 is very solid intermediate-term price support, while 4300 is the next wall of price resistance. Which one breaks first? That’ll be a significant clue as to what we should expect over the balance of 2023 and into 2024. We should note that while price action has been solid in 2023, we have no RSI confirmation of a secular bull market advance just yet. During downtrends, the RSI typically resides in the 30-60 range, with occasional dips below 30. The weekly RSI is at 55 and has yet to move above 60. So while I remain bullish over the balance of 2023, it’s not a slam dunk and we need to remain objective.

S&P 500 – Daily:

This chart tells me a story. One historical fact is that 6 of the last 13 bear markets have ended during the month of October. If October 2022 ultimately proves to be the low, it’ll mark the 7th out of the last 14. That’s a powerful number that certainly provides us evidence of a potential market bottom. The uptrend off that potential October bottom is obvious. There’s been a bit of hesitation and consolidation along the way, but there are a series of higher highs and higher low, which is the definition of an uptrend. It cannot be ignored, even if you’re in the bearish camp. There is also a clearly-defined short-term closing price resistance of 4179. We’ve been there twice now without a successful breakout. A close above 4179 should be viewed bullishly.

Over the past 8 months, the 4050-4100 area has shown to have fairly serious price support/resistance. I’ve highlighted key moves into and out of this zone in red (price resistance) and green (price support). There’s also the 50-day SMA, currently at 4057, to provide some support for the bulls. In the very near-term, the bulls and bears are battling in this 4050-4179 area. On short-term breakouts vs. breakdowns, I’d say the bears have one advantage. If price resistance at 4179 is broken, it’s a fairly short trip to MAJOR 4305 price resistance. That’s the August 2022 high that I believe completely changes the picture on the weekly chart, confirming the resumption of the secular bull market by ending the series of lower highs and lower lows (refer to the numbering of 1 to 5 on the weekly chart). But what happens if price support at 4050 is lost? There’s nearly 300 points of downside to consider to the 3775 support level.

Price action is our PRIMARY indicator. The reason I do all the research I do and study history like I do is quite simple. I don’t want to wait for the S&P 500 to move from a 3491 low to a breakout above 4305 before admitting the stock market is in an uptrend. That’s over 800 points and approximately 23%. That’s the equivalent of 2 1/2 years of normal S&P 500 returns (the S&P 500 has averaged gaining 9% or so per year since 1950). The stock market does provide us clues as to its “under the surface” strength and weakness. We can evaluate the risk of being long vs. being short or in cash from these signals. But you have to know what to look for.

Leadership

History tells us that it’s very important to see leadership from “risk on” areas of the stock market during bull market advances. That includes our most aggressive sectors – technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY), and communication services (XLC). The S&P 500 finally cleared its 2000 and 2007 highs on April 10, 2013. That was the date, in my opinion, that the current secular bull market began. From that day through the January 3, 2022 market top, the S&P 500 and the 11 sectors performed as follows:

S&P 500: +202.10%

Sectors:

Technology (XLK): +554.95%Consumer discretionary (XLY): +338.25%Communication services (XLC): +303.71%Health care (XLV): +239.38%Financials (XLF): +210.98%Industrials (XLI): +196.65%Materials (XLB): +173.02%Real estate (XLRE): +171.40%Consumer staples (XLP): +140.95%Utilities (XLU): +138.39%Energy (XLE): +0.63%

The 3 key “risk on” sectors – XLK, XLY, XLC – dominated the action throughout the entire secular bull market. During a period of strong economic growth and historically-low interest rates, that leadership completely makes sense to me. We all know we’ve been through a very challenging market since the 2020 pandemic. Many believe we have steep challenges ahead that will drive equity prices lower. Maybe they will, but I’m not in that camp. We remain in an extremely low interest rate environment and the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months. The fact that we’ve seen the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) falling for 7 months, dropping nearly 100 basis points, tells me that bond market traders are ignoring inflationary risks and are instead concentrating on the likelihood that the Fed will hike rates no more – and possibly even lower them. That, in turn, is resulting in a substantial shift once again into the aggressive sectors garnering more than their fair share of rotation. Check out this year-to-date performance summary of the 11 sectors:

Notice which sectors are leading, by a mile? This is normal secular bull market behavior. The S&P 500 is up 7.41% year-to-date, led by aggressive growth stocks. It sure seems like the key sectors are leading the benchmark higher in 2023, just as they’ve done throughout the entire secular bull market. This is a critical “under the surface” indicator that does not support the bears’ argument of lower prices ahead.

Sentiment

When I spoke at our MarketVision 2022 event on Saturday, January 8th of that year, I said the number 1 issue facing the stock market was NOT inflation. It wasn’t interest rates. It wasn’t a potential recession. It wasn’t the Fed. Instead, I argued the biggest issue was SENTIMENT. Retail traders had grown incredibly bullish and that spelled BIG TROUBLE as we opened 2022. I suggested, in a worst-case scenario, that the S&P 500 could visit the 3500-3800 range. That’s when the S&P 500 was near its all-time close to 4900. That was a very bold prediction. But it came true 9 months later when the S&P 500 hit a final low of 3491.58 on October 13th. I warned the bulls and continued to do so for the next several months until saying the risk of being short (or in cash) had escalated and I reversed course. History has proven me correct. And now sentiment is about to provide a MAJOR signal that every trader needs to be aware of. When this signal has been provided in the past, it’s preceded an unbelievable market reaction every time.

I’ll provide that signal in advance in Monday’s FREE EB Digest article. The signal almost certainly will trigger later this month and, if it’s correct again, it will provide you a very meaningful directional signal regarding the benchmark S&P 500. If you’d like to discover one of the most important “beneath the surface” stock market signals, CLICK HERE and provide your name and email address to subscribe to our EB Digest newsletter. Again, it’s free, there’s not credit card required, and you may unsubscribe at any time!

Happy trading!

Tom

PS. If you haven’t subscribed to this Trading Places blog, be sure to do so by scrolling down and providing your email address. Once subscribed, every Trading Places article will be sent to your inbox the moment it’s published!

VIX rose through the week, and so did the NIFTY. Over the past five sessions, the Indian equity markets continued to inch higher showing a lot of resilience, and ended with a modest gain over the week. Over the past several weeks, the persistently low levels of VIX have remained a concern; this volatility gauge violated its pre-pandemic 2020 lows when it closed below 11 levels. This indicator also rose; the markets continued to pile up some gains as well. The NIFTY 50 index moved in a 289.40 points range and ended towards its high point just below the key resistance levels. The headline index closed while posting net gains of 245.80 points (+1.36%) on a weekly basis.

Markets remain at a crucial juncture from a technical standpoint. On short-term charts, NIFTY has resistance in the 18300-18350 zone as indicated by the Options data. However, looking at the weekly charts, there is a strong pattern resistance in the 18450-18500 zone; unless this zone is taken out comprehensively, no runaway up moves are expected. This very thing, if viewed with a different perspective, all upsides in the NIFTY, if any, shall remain capped in nature. INDIAVIX rose by 4.53% to 12.85 during the week; it still remains relatively at much lower levels.

Monday is likely to see a quiet start to the week; the levels of 18390 and 18490 are likely to act as potential resistance points. The supports would come in at 18180 and 18000 levels.

The weekly RSI is at 59.58; it has marked a new 14-period high which is bullish. However, it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above the signal line.

The pattern analysis of the weekly charts shows that by moving towards the 18500 levels, it is attempting to form and test a triple-top; any move towards the 18500-18600 levels will see the NIFTY testing this level for the third time since October 2021. While any meaningful breakout may lend more strength to the Index, as of now, the zone/level of 18500 is a very strong resistance for the Index. As of now, this zone stands as a very stiff resistance for the Index unless taken out convincingly.

All in all, even though both the Indices; Nifty and Banknifty, are posting incremental highs, markets remain vulnerable to consolidation at current levels. Without any corrective retracement or any consolidation, the present up-move has gotten a bit unhealthy. Banknifty has been relatively much stronger; it may continue to relatively outperform the NIFTY but any corrective move shall make this index more volatile and susceptible to profit-taking bouts. As of now, there are no signals to suggest the onset of any major corrective move, but markets are vulnerable to some consolidation and corrective actions.

It is strongly recommended that one must continue to approach the markets on a highly selective note. It would be prudent to stay invested in defensive, low-beta, and relatively stronger stocks. Overall, while continuing to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels, a cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed

The analysis of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) shows that Services, Realty, Infrastructure, PSE, Midcap 100, and FMCG stay inside the leading quadrant, all except Realty Index are showing a decline in their relative momentum against the broader markets. These pockets may continue to show resilience; however, strong relative outperformance would be difficult to come in.

NIFTY Auto, Banknifty, and PSU banks remain in the weakening quadrant; they continue to show improvement in their relative momentum against the broader NIFTY 500 Index.

NIFTY IT Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. It is likely to relatively underperform the markets. The Metal and Media Indices are inside the lagging quadrant and are showing improvement in their relative momentum, but the performance of the Metal space may be adversely affected by an up-move in the US Dollar Index.

The Energy Index is seen firmly placed inside the improving quadrant along with the Consumption and Pharma Index. These pockets may show resilient performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

In the last two weeks, I’ve heard this market described as “frustratingly neutral”, “decidedly sideways”, “stuck”, and my personal favorite, the “sloppy choppy” phase. So how does the market breakout of this sideways period and move into a new bullish or bearish phase?

It starts with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite and what I call the New Dow Theory.

What a Breakout Could Look Like

Now, there are more sophisticated methods for gauging Dow Theory signals, but I tend to keep things super simple. When both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are making a new swing high, that is a confirmed bullish signal. When either index makes a new swing high, and the other index does not confirm that new swing high, that is a bearish non-confirmation. When both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are making a new swing low, there’s a confirmed bearish signal. When either index makes a new swing low, and the other index does not confirm that new swing high, that is a bullish non-confirmation.

We can see that this week the Nasdaq Composite did indeed make a high for 2023, finally pushing above its February peak. The S&P 500, even with a fierce rally into Friday’s close, still has not broken out to a new swing high.

If the S&P 500 would close above 4200 at some point next week, that would create what we listed above as a confirmed bullish signal. What if the SPX does not close above 4200? Then we would have a bearish non-confirmation and a likely retest of the March low.

Further Confirmation From Market Breadth

Now the issue with our growth-oriented, cap-weighted benchmarks is that they are very skewed to a relatively small number of mega cap stocks in sectors like technology and communication services.

We’ve been talking narrow leadership and questionable breadth conditions for a while now, and John Murphy included it as a key bullet point in his recent market note.

If we check out the advance-decline lines by cap tiers, you’ll notice a huge difference between conditions for the largest vs. the smallest names in the equity space.

Below the S&P 500 price trend, you’ll see three data series which represent the cumulative advance-decline lines for large caps, mid caps, and small caps. Note how the large cap A-D line is testing its February high, similar to the S&P 500 itself. The mid cap A-D line is well off its February high, and just broke below its 50-day moving average this week. At the bottom, you’ll see that the small cap advance-decline line is testing its March low.

Talk about three very different takes on market breadth!

While our mega-cap dominated benchmarks can and do move higher based on the strength of the mega cap trade, the weakness in the smaller stocks out there suggests less of a “risk-on” environment, and more of a “getting large and defensive” feel.

The bear case from here would start with the small cap A-D line making a new low for 2023, as well as the large cap breadth line not pushing above its February high.

Investor Sentiment and Economic Growth

Our final chart today addresses the relationship between the equity markets and other asset classes. Here we see the S&P 500 at the top, followed by three key ratios that provide fascinating insights into market sentiment and economic outlooks.

The first ratio is stocks vs. bonds, using the SPY and TLT ETFs. Note how this ratio was in a clear uptrend for about three years, starting just after the 2020 market low. It definitely paid to own stocks over bonds from 2020 through 2022.

Now look at the last six months, and you’ll see how stocks and bonds have been pretty much a wash since October of last year. That’s right, owning stocks or bonds would given you pretty similar returns, even with equities rallying strongly off their October lows.

The next panel down shows stocks vs. gold, or what I think of as “paper vs. rocks”. Now in the rocks-scissors-paper challenge I often find myself in with my seven-year-old son, paper covers rocks. But in the financial markets in 2023, rocks have done much better due to the strength in gold and precious metals. So you’ve been much better off owning gold over stocks or bonds since the end of 2021.

At the bottom, we have two ETFs of which you may be a bit less familiar. Here, we’re comparing base metals (DBB) vs. precious metals (DBP). When economies are growing, you need lots of copper and aluminum and other practical materials to build cities and other things. When the economy is weaker, precious metals tend to thrive, as they are considered a good store of value and tend to be as recession-proof as anything can be. And, of course, weaker economies mean less demand for base metals.

So what does it mean that this ratio has been trending lower over the last 12 months? It certainly does not mean that the economy is doing well, and arguably it indicates that the actions taken by the Fed to raise rates and slow the economy has had its intended effect.

Can stocks move higher while this ratio goes lower? Of course. But just as we’ve discussed regarding small-cap stock performance and offensive vs. defensive sectors, I’d feel much better about upside potential if ratios like this were trending higher rather than lower!

Want to digest that last chart in video format? Just head over to my YouTube channel!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The markets remain in a tight trading range amid mixed inflation data and a slowdown in the number of earnings being reported last week. With the bulls looking for a soft landing as the Fed pauses their rate hike campaign, the bears are fearing a more harsh recession due to sticky inflation and the recent tightening of credit.

As you can see in the chart below, we’ve been in a trading range for the past six weeks and, with April’s critical inflation reports now behind us and earnings season tapering off, we may well remain in this range until at least the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision on June 14th and, more possibly, well into the 2nd half of the year.

DAILY CHART OF S&P 500 INDEX

At this time, the Fed has forecasted a mild recession; however, major CEOs such as JPMorgan (JPM) head Jamie Dimon and billionaire Stan Druckenmiller are on the lookout for something much more harsh. Their reasons for an imminent economic downturn? Higher interest rates and tightening of credit. Last week, N.Y. Fed President Daly relayed that there are already signs of reduced lending among regional banks.

One way to guard against the possibility of a downturn in the economy, and hence the markets, is to expand your portfolio to include dividend-paying stocks. In addition to providing a stable–mostly quarterly–cash flow, these stocks often prove to outperform peers that don’t offer a payout.

Here is one high dividend producing stock and one ETF that can help counterbalance any downturn due to a weaker-than-expected economy. First up is iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), which entered an uptrend late last week after the country reported that inflation dropped to 4.7% in March, which puts the rate within 1.5% of their target rate. In addition, it’s forecasted that Brazil’s central bank may begin cutting interest rates in the second half of this year. And while a rising dollar may hurt the prospects for this commodity-rich country, last week’s uptick in the U.S. dollar did not have an impact.

DAILY CHART OF ISHARES BRAZIL ETF (EWZ)

EWZ offers a 11.85% yield and this ETF broke out of a 1-month base on heavy volume last week, with the MACD posting a positive crossover. While EWZ is in an uptrend, the ETF is extended following last week’s gains and buyers may want to wait for a pullback to the $29.3 range as an entry.

Next up is fast food franchise company Wendy’s (WEN) which broke out of a 5-month base last week after reporting earnings that were ahead of estimates. The stock offers a 4.3% annualized yield, which is far higher than the S&P’s average yield of 1.6%. The company also reaffirmed forward guidance of growth going into the remainder of this year as well as next year.

DAILY CHART OF WENDY’S CO. (WEN)

In addition to growing sales, the company is rapidly accelerating their investment into its digital business after entering into an agreement with Alphabet (GOOG) to use artificial intelligence to take customer drive through orders. This move will reduce costs for Wendy’s while improving their efficiency.

There are other ways to combat the currently lackluster market, such as investing in stocks that are in defensive areas of the market but that also offer a growth component. Subscribers to my MEM Edge Report will be familiar with this strategy, as we’ve been employing it over the past several months with a move into select Healthcare and other stocks.

If you’d like immediate access to this list of stocks, use this link here so you can be granted a 4-week trial at a nominal fee. You’ll also receive twice weekly updates on the broader markets as well as in depth sector and stock analysis.

Have a great weekend!

Mary Ellen McGonagle, MEM Investment Research

On this week’s edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes, I spoke about a turning point in the market. This week, not much has changed for the major indexes, but underneath the surface strength is not easily found. Money is hiding out in a handful of the biggest names, and I continue to wonder how much higher they can go or how long they can hold.

This video was originally broadcast on May 12, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, iOS, Chromecast, Android, and more!

New episodes of Moxie Indicator Minutes air Fridays at 1:15pm ET on StockCharts TV. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link.

TG also hosted the Friday, May 12 edition of Your Daily Five, where he shows how, even though the markets have been pushing up, not everything has followed.

On this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s StockCharts in Focus, Grayson shows you three of the quickest, easiest, most effective ways to find strong stocks – and funds – in just a few simple clicks. Armed with the power of SCTRs – the StockCharts Technical Ranking system – you’ll learn how to narrow down to a slim list of only the strongest stocks out there in the market. Plus, you’ll see how the Predefined Scans page can help get you up and running with your own custom technical scans. As an added bonus, Grayson will jump over to ACP, show you how a few of these key tools work over in our Advanced Charting Platform and share some exciting news about a few new features rolling out in the platform very soon.

This video was originally broadcast on May 12, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in Focus page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch on our on-demand website, StockChartsTV.com, using this link.

New episodes of StockCharts in Focus air Fridays at 3pm ET on StockCharts TV. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.