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Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Thursday a busload of migrants from his state had arrived in Denver.

Abbott made the announcement in a press release that the migrants had been bussed from Texas to Denver and dropped off in the city’s downtown area.

NYC FACES IRE OF RESIDENTS OVER PLAN TO HOUSE MIGRANTS IN BROOKLYN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GYM 

‘Texas’ overwhelmed and overrun border communities should not have to shoulder the flood of illegal immigration due to President Biden’s reckless open border policies, like his mass catch and release without court dates or any way to track them,’ Abbott said in the release. ‘Until the President and his Administration step up and fulfill their constitutional duty to secure the border, the State of Texas will continue busing migrants to self-declared sanctuary cities like Denver to provide much-needed relief to our small border towns.’ 

Abbott has bussed migrants to several cities, including New York City; Chicago; Washington, D.C.; and Philadelphia.

Philadelphia officials said 34 asylum seekers arrived in their city Wednesday from Texas by bus, while another 46 migrants arrived Thursday.

The migrants are from Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and the Dominican Republic, according to the update. 

Philadelphia has received 23 total buses of migrants since November.

In Chicago — one city taking in migrants being bussed from Texas — newly-elected Mayor Brandon Johnson signed an executive order which establishes a ‘deputy mayor for immigrant, migrant, and refugee rights.’

‘Mayor Johnson’s executive order to establish a Deputy Mayor for Immigrant, Migrant, and Refugee Rights makes the new role responsible for the coordination and communication between all applicable City departments and officials related to the City’s efforts to support newly arrived and established immigrants, refugees, and migrants,’ Johnson’s office said in a statement.

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Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., a member of the far-left ‘Squad,’ on Thursday called Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., a White supremacist, and said she wants Black people ‘targeted for harm’ after she said she felt ‘threatened’ by his ‘physical mannerisms.’

Speaking to reporters outside the Capitol, Bowman addressed Greene’s comments, which she made during a press conference earlier in the day in response to a Wednesday altercation between the two.

‘This is why it is so important that we teach and know our history. There is a long tradition—that Marjorie should be well aware of—of Black men who are passionate, outspoken, or who stand their ground, being characterized as ‘threatening’ or ‘intimidating.’ That’s what happened with Emmett Till, with Mike Brown, and with so many more,’ Bowman said.

‘Marjorie’s attack is beyond a dog-whistle. It’s a bullhorn. And it’s reckless and dangerous. She has put a target on my back,’ he said. ‘The truth of the matter is that we had a light back-and-forth on the steps of Capitol Hill, surrounded by reporters and staff. We can roll back the tapes and see her characterization of our conversation is an utter and blatant lie.’

‘This is, historically, what white supremacists do. They try to dehumanize Black people, Black skin, and Black humanity—so that we can be targeted for harm,’ he added.

Bowman doubled down in a post on Twitter later Thursday, saying, ‘White supremacists like Marjorie Taylor Greene use racist dog whistles to characterize outspoken, passionate Black men like me as threatening. But I won’t stop speaking truth to power.’

The two clashed following a Wednesday vote to send a resolution to expel embattled Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., to the House Ethics Committee rather than directly take up the measure. As Santos spoke with reporters about the vote, Bowman and fellow ‘Squad’ member Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., heckled him to resign.

According to footage of the spat, Bowman and Greene began shouting over each other, with him calling on her to vote to expel Santos, who is facing numerous federal charges and an ethics investigation, and her calling on him to ‘impeach Biden’ and ‘save the country.’ 

At a Thursday morning press conference, Greene told reporters she was ‘swarmed’ by a ‘mob’ led by Bowman, which she said was also captured on video, and that he called her a ‘White supremacist.’ 

‘He was the one that approached me — even CNN reported that — yelling, shouting, raising his voice. He has aggressive — his physical mannerisms are aggressive,’ Greene said, while also referring to a previous altercation Bowman had with Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., in March over gun violence, in which Bowman, appearing angry, continuously shouted over Massie as he tried to talk with him.

‘I think there’s a lot of concern about Jamaal Bowman, and I am concerned about it. I feel threatened by him,’ she said. ‘I am very concerned about Jamaal Bowman, and he’s someone people should watch.’

Greene was attacked by others following the press conference, including Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who referred to her comments as ‘blatant racism.’

Fox News Digital reached out to Greene’s office concerning the footage she said was captured on video beyond that which had already been circulating, but did not immediately receive a response.

Fox also reached out to Bowman’s office about the altercation with Greene, but was referred to his comments mentioned earlier.

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Democratic Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly on Thursday vetoed parts of a $6 billion public education spending plan backed by the Sunflower State’s Republican-dominated Legislature.Kelly’s objection to the bill is largely due to her taking issue with a provision she believes would cut rural schools’ funding.’This provision pulls the rug out from rural school districts at the 11th hour,’ Kelly claimed. ‘If the provision is enacted, it will bring dangerous and devastating consequences for our rural districts.’

Kansas’ Democratic governor on Thursday vetoed parts of the Republican-backed $6 billion funding plan for the state’s K-12 schools, setting up a likely legal battle that will test her office’s powers.

Gov. Laura Kelly, who won reelection in the conservative state in November, issued a statement explaining her decision to take the unprecedented step of vetoing parts of the proposed education budget, saying she objected to one provision, in particular, that she says would cut funding for rural public schools, which have been dealing with declining enrollment.

‘This provision pulls the rug out from rural school districts at the 11th hour,’ Kelly said. ‘If the provision is enacted, it will bring dangerous and devastating consequences for our rural districts.’

Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson and House Speaker Dan Hawkins, leaders of the GOP-controlled Legislature, quickly issued a joint statement criticizing Kelly, saying the state’s constitution limits line-item vetoes to appropriations.

‘We strongly encourage the Attorney General to immediately review this unconstitutional overreach,’ they said.

The spending plan, which would provide the bulk of the money that the state’s 286 school districts rely on, would also expand a program aimed at providing private school scholarships for low-income families. Although Kelly opposes that provision, she didn’t veto it.

Kelly said that because the bill mixed policy with funding, the Kansas Constitution allows her to veto parts but not all of the bill, as it does with legislation setting the state’s annual budgets. Top Republicans are likely to object and to challenge the assertion in court.

The issue has never been tested legally, creating uncertainty about how much money school districts might have and what policies they might face the next academic year.

In her statement, Kelly said the GOP-backed bill would change the way districts count their enrollment, which determines their funding. Currently, districts are allowed to use one of the two previous school years to determine how much money they will receive.

The new education bill requires districts to use the current or previous year’s enrollment to determine appropriations. That provision would force districts with declining enrollments to immediately make changes to budgets they have already approved for the upcoming year, she said.

Kelly also noted that the Kansas Supreme Court has upheld the current method for determining enrollment, and she said changing the formula would raise questions over the state’s compliance with that law.

Education groups had pushed Kelly to veto the bill even though it would increase the state’s total aid to districts by about 4% for the next school year. The increases would vary by district, with 29 — most with fewer than 700 students — receiving less aid than they did this school year.

Kelly has signed education bills with a similar marriage of funding and policy in the past. But she and top Republicans clashed repeatedly over her handling of the coronavirus pandemic. GOP lawmakers forced her to accept a whittling away of the powers of her office and of local officials to close schools and businesses and impose mask mandates.

If Kelly had vetoed the entire bill, she would have forced a special legislative session to ensure that schools are funded for the next school year because lawmakers have adjourned for the year. If she were to lose a court battle over her vetoing parts of the bill, it’s unclear if the entire bill would become law or if it would die altogether.

Educators also were upset that GOP lawmakers rejected Kelly’s proposal to phase in a 70% increase in funding for programs for students with physical or intellectual disabilities, or behavioral problems. It would have required an extra $72 million in the next state budget, but legislators only approved $7.5 million.

Kelly said she was disappointed that lawmakers didn’t increase special education funding and that they need to ‘correct their mistake’ when they return for next year’s session.

In a statement Thursday, the Kansas Association of School Boards praised Kelly’s line-item veto and also expressed disappointment in lawmakers’ ‘inadequate response’ to special education funding at a time when the state has a record budget surplus.

And educators opposed provisions that would expand an income tax credit program for donors to funds that provide annual private school scholarships of up to $8,000 annually to students from low-income families. Although the total credits would remain capped at $10 million a year, more students would be eligible for the scholarships.

Kelly said most Kansans don’t support such policies, and she chastised lawmakers for ‘logrolling’ them into the education funding bill rather than proposing them as separate bills.

Conservative Republicans wanted to pass a far broader plan to use state education dollars to help parents pay for private or home schooling for their children, something GOP lawmakers have enacted in other states, including Iowa, South Carolina and Utah.

Kelly is strongly opposed to the idea, saying public funds should go to public schools. Republican legislators were split.

The state constitution says that if any bill ‘contains several items of appropriation of money,’ the governor can veto one or more ‘such items’ while signing the rest.

While lawmakers often set policy in the budget with provisions directing how money must be spent or prohibiting some spending, those provisions are in effect only for a year. In the past, it’s been uncommon for lawmakers to mix spending with measures rewriting state laws permanently, so governors haven’t previously taken actions similar to Kelly’s.

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In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, drilling into the equity landscape, Alex & Tyler share a GoNoGo Sector Relmap to find the sectors outperforming the rising S&P500. Leadership is now squarely focused on growth equity sectors – XLK, XLY, XLC – information technology, consumer discretionary, and communications are in “Go’ trends relative to the S&P 500.

This video was originally recorded on May 18, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, Chromecast, iOS, Android, and more!

New episodes of GoNoGo Charts air on Thursdays at 3:30pm ET on StockCharts TV. Learn more about the GoNoGo ACP plug-in with the FREE starter plug-in or the full featured plug-in pack.

Fading an overextended market move is always tricky. Risky too. To go long on something you estimate is oversold, or to go short on an asset you think might be overbought, means capitalizing on a market sentiment misstep. And it takes guts to make a contrarian trade—you’re trying to “correct” a momentary noise surge that’s out of step with the realities of supply and demand.

You may not be able to validate your thesis even after the contrarian trade is done. But you can stack the odds in your favor. This is where Bollinger Bands® come in handy.

There are many ways to use Bollinger Bands. One is to use them to find potential fading opportunities. Because it’s preferable to find these prospects in a non-trending environment, it’s a good idea to add the Average Directional Index (ADX) to the mix.

The Method: Joe Ross’ ‘Gimmee’ Bar Trading Strategy

If you know anything about trader, educator, and author Joe Ross, then you’re likely familiar with his concept of the “Gimmee Bar” which he introduced in his book Electronic Trading ‘TNT’ IV (1998).

In a nutshell, here’s what it’s about. When the market isn’t trending, prices, according to Ross, tend to close within the upper and lower Bollinger Bands (representing two standard deviations of a 20-day moving average) around 95% to 96.5% of the time. 

This stat alone outlines the trade. Here are Ross’s rules:

Wait for price to exceed a given band (lower or higher).Wait for price to close back within the band—this is the ‘Gimme Bar.’Place a long (or short) entry order a tick or point from the entry bar.

If the entry bar is too long, or too close to the median band, you might want to use your own discretion, and perhaps avoid the trade.

As far as how long to ride the trade—whether you’re going to hold it until it crosses the middle band or opposite band, or whether you’re going to take profits based on a predetermined risk%—is up to you and depends on the situation (each trade will present a different dynamic).

The chart below of Aer Cap Holdings (AER) shows a series of “Gimmee Bar” trades.

CHART 1: MULTIPLE TRADING OPPORTUNITIES. The daily chart of AerCap Holdings (AER) shows several trading signals that may have been taken based on the ‘Gimmee’ bar trading strategy and ADX readings.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Here’s what a series of trades might look like:

A: Short trade that presented a sizable return.

B: Long trade that might have been profitable if you closed the trade when it crossed the middle band.

C: Long trade with a sizable return.

D: NO trade as the ADX line exceeded 25 (see red boxes in both areas of the chart).

E: Long trade that would have worked.

F: Short trade that presented a sizable return opportunity.

G: A failed trade (you would have been stopped out).

H: A risky trade that might have worked; volatility contracted, the bands have narrowed, and a price explosion is likely to occur.

Now that you understand the basic concept behind this fade trade, how might you scan for these quick countertrend opportunities?

Scanning for a Fade Trade

In the StockCharts platform, from Your Dashboard,

Click Charts & ToolsScroll down to Sample Scan Library > Browse Scan LibraryFind and run the following scans: Moved Above Upper Bollinger Band and Moved Below Lower Bollinger Band

Remember that, while the first scan is under the “bullish” category, you’re looking to take a contrarian position on this stock, so your bias is bearish (the reverse applies to the second scan).

Say you run the “Moved Below Lower Bollinger Band” scan. After running the scan, there were hundreds of stocks to look at. Quite a few of them also had an ADX reading under 25, and many of the stocks were not popular names. It helps to sort the column based on the universe (U column).

One of the stocks in the scan is mid-cap Technology company Agilysys Inc. (AGYS).

Would you fade this drop (see chart below)?

CHART 2: A FADING TRADING STRATEGY. Agilysys Inc. (AGYS) offers a fading opportunity toward the upside as per Joe Ross’ “Gimmee Bar” rules. Do you have the gumption to take it? Note the high selling volume underpinning the second-to-last price bar.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

As mentioned earlier, making a contrarian trade, especially when it concerns a slight market misstep, is tricky. There are ways to increase your odds and reduce your risk, such as using the ADX to identify non-trending stocks. But ultimately, there’s no guarantee that the stock you fade won’t skyrocket or plunge against your position.

But the opportunities to identify and trade these “Gimmee Bars” are plenty. And the StockCharts Bollinger Band scans can help you find them, whenever you’re itching to go against the grain and “correct” a few perceived market imbalances.

Is Contrarian Trading Your Thing?

The idea of going against the crowd in trading—spotting stocks to fade using Bollinger Bands—has its own rewards and risks. Sure, tools like Bollinger Bands and the ADX can help you spot these opportunities. But remember, every trade has its unique twists and turns. And let’s not forget, the market can be pretty stubborn sometimes, staying irrational longer than our wallets might like, so keeping an eye on those risks is critical.

So, here’s the deal. This strategy can be pretty cool if you have enough gumption to trade the noise and fade the erroneous. But it needs careful analysis and comfort with contrarian trading strategies. And as with everything in trading, it should just be one tool in your kit. After all, it’s all about managing risk and finding what works for you.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

This week I wrote a Daily on USO, the US Oil Fund.

Plus, I did a video for CMC Markets on those 2 commodities plus on Dollar pairs with Yen, Euro, British Pound.

I wrapped things up with a look at Lithium (another Daily this week) plus a look at DBA the Agricultural ETF.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish provides a roundup of the commodities and currency pairs to watch this week on CMC Markets.

Mish explains how the Retail ETF is at a critical level on Business First AM.

In this video, Mish walks you thru the Dollar, Euro, GBP, Gold, Silver and more.

Mish walks you through the fundamentals and technical analysis legitimizing a meme stock on Business First AM.

In this appearance on Fox Business’s Making Money with Charles Payne, Mish and Charles discuss if economy has contracted enough with support in place, and present 3 stock picks.

Mish covers the trading range and a few of her recent stock picks on Business First AM.

In this appearance on Real Vision, Maggie Lake and Mish discuss current state of the market, from small caps to tech to gold.

Coming Up:

May 18th: Presentation for Orios VC Fund, India

May 19th: Real Vision Analysis

May 22nd: TD Ameritrade

May 31st: Singapore Radio with Kai Ting 6:05pm ET MoneyFM 89.3.

June 2nd: Yahoo Finance

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 23-month MA 420; support 410 Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support-180 resistance.Dow (DIA): 336 the 23-month MA.Nasdaq (QQQ): 328 cleared or the 23-month MA-now its all about staying above.Regional Banks (KRE): 42 now pivotal resistance-37 support.Semiconductors (SMH): 23-month MA at 124 now more in the rearview mirror.Transportation (IYT): 202-240 biggest range to watch.Biotechnology (IBB): 121-135 range to watch from monthly charts.Retail (XRT): 59.74 held, so now we watch the 50-DMA at 62.00.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

On this week’s edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe shows how to use the 18- and 40-SMA lines to define the trend in multiple timeframes. He explains what defines a trend, no trend as well as a transitional phase. He uses MSFT and TSLA for his examples, defining their trends on Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly. He then covers the stock symbol requests that came through this week, including WEAT, PLTR, and more.

This video was originally broadcast on May 18, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, Chromecast, iOS, Android and more!

New episodes of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil air on Thursdays at 2pm ET on StockCharts TV. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show. (Please do not leave Symbol Requests on this page.)

Most of the time, the spot price of copper is very well correlated with what stock prices do. Occasionally, there is a momentary squeeze in the copper market, resulting in a spike top that is not reflected in stock prices, and that is quite ordinary. We saw several such spike tops in 2021, and once more in early 2022.

A better indication comes from outside of those brief squeeze events, when we see a more persistent divergence between the two plots. We are seeing such a divergence right now, with the NYSE Composite Index ($NYA) still at a higher low, but with copper prices pushing downward in a lower-highs, lower-lows pattern that defines a downtrend.

Most of the time, when these two plots disagree, copper usually ends up being right about the direction in which both end up heading. That is an alarming insight right now, and it fits with the poor breadth numbers we are seeing. The NYSE’s A-D Line shown below is also making lower lows, in conflict with the higher highs in the S&P 500 and NDX thanks to the upward pull by Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

The message of both copper and the A-D Line is that liquidity is tight, and you can thank the Federal Reserve for achieving the goal it has set out to accomplish. They think that they can suppress price inflation by removing liquidity from the banking system via higher short term rates and “quantitative tightening”, or QT, meaning selling off their bond holdings. Whether that will actually suppress inflation is a separate question, but there is no doubt that it is hurting financial market liquidity.

For the first time in 75 years, only one horse from the Kentucky Derby will race in the Preakness Stakes.

Kentucky Derby winner Mage will look to keep his Triple Crown hopes alive as the 8-5 morning-line favorite in Saturday’s $1.65 million, Grade 1 Preakness at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

The last time only one Kentucky Derby contender went on to the Preakness was 1948, when Citation beat three new shooters in the middle jewel on his way to winning the Triple Crown.

While there are only eight horses in this year’s Preakness, Mage does face several worthy foes in First Mission, National Treasure and Blazing Sevens.

No sweat Preakness bet: Get up to $20 returned on your pick to win the Preakness States

Here’s a look at why each horse can and can’t win the Preakness − many serious, a few tongue in cheek and one destined to be right.

1. National Treasure (4-1 odds)   

Why he can win: He’s added blinkers and should go straight to the lead from that inside post position. If no one else pushes him early, he’s a threat to wire the field. Trainer Bob Baffert has a record seven Preakness victories.

Why he can’t: He’s never been worse than fourth in five career races, but he also hasn’t won since that maiden score in September. Can he take a step forward, or is this who he is?

2. Chase the Chaos (50-1)

Why he can win: What are the odds the other seven get stuck in the gate?

Why he can’t: One career race on dirt − the Grade 2 San Felipe − and he finished seventh out of nine. His Beyer Speed Figures have dropped each of his last two races.

3. Mage (8-5)

Why he can win: His runner-up finish to Forte in the Florida Derby showed promise, and he took another step forward by winning the Kentucky Derby. ‘So far, so good’ has been the mantra of the Delgados since that victory, and all signs point to another impressive performance in Baltimore.

Why he can’t: We’ve seen it over and over: Horses run huge races in the Kentucky Derby and then bounce two weeks later at Pimlico. He’s prone to bad breaks from the gate. Will it catch up to him here?

4. Coffeewithchris (20-1)

Why he can win: The Maryland bred is the only horse in the field with a victory at Pimlico, though it came via a disqualification last May. He’ll be at or near the lead early.

Why he can’t: Fifth-place finishers in the Federico Tesio don’t win the Preakness. National Treasure will wear him down early up front.

5. Red Route One (10-1)

Why he can win: Ran in six straight graded stakes before the Bath House Row victory, so he’s plenty seasoned. If the front-runners tire, he’s the most likely to be passing them late.

Why he can’t: About those six straight graded stakes: He went 0 for 6 with a couple of runner-up showings. There are obvious pace-setters in the field, but it’s not expected to be blazing enough to benefit him at the end.

6. Perform (15-1)

Why he can win: Federico Tesio winner was supplemented into the Preakness for $150,000, so the connections must see something they like. Finished just 5 ½ lengths behind Mage in a maiden special weight in January at Gulfstream Park and could be improving.  

Why he can’t: Much like Red Route One, he’s a closer who may not get the hot early pace he needs.

7. Blazing Sevens (6-1)

Why he can win: Trainer Chad Brown has won the Preakness twice with horses who skipped the Kentucky Derby − Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting (2022) − and could do it again with Blazing Sevens. Back-to-back bullet workouts at Belmont Park entering this.

Why he can’t: One of the nation’s top 2-year-olds, he’s 0 for 2 this year and couldn’t keep up with Tapit Trice or Verifying when finishing third in the Blue Grass. His best days may be behind him.

8. First Mission (5-2)

Why he can win: Has the perfect running style to get the jump on National Treasure coming for home. Trainer Brad Cox was beaming about this horse’s potential after winning the Grade 3 Lexington.

Why he can’t: With just three career races under his belt, it feels like he might need one more big one before knocking off the more experienced contenders in this field.

Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @KentuckyDerbyCJ.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

The image of Gus Malzahn during his eight seasons at Auburn was largely shrouded in inaccessibility and aloofness, a man determined to reveal as few thoughts and emotions as the job required.

In private, there was some warmth and charisma to him, but even then you could tell after five or six minutes that his mind was wandering from the conversation he was in to the next recruit he had to call or the next block of film he needed to watch. In public, the defenses were almost always up, as if he knew every sentence that came out of mouth would be dissected and judged by a fan base that misses nothing and excuses even less.

But to be around Malzahn these days, after his inevitable firing at Auburn and immediate reemergence at UCF, is almost like seeing a different man entirely. Freed from the annual drama about his job status that popped up even though he made a national title game and beat Nick Saban three times, he is looser and funnier and even a bit visually younger these days in his new home of Orlando. 

“What’s the best way to answer this?” Malzahn said during a recent visit to Atlanta for a UCF donor and alumni event. “It’s a different feel. That’s probably the best way. Two different jobs. Two completely different jobs. But I really love what I’m doing. Coaching is fun. There’s not a lot of other stuff. That’s probably the best way to put it.”

He pauses and laughs, searching for whether he should expand on that last comment before making it clear he loved his time at Auburn. 

“It’s just completely different. It’s like almost … yeah, it’s completely different.”

But the implication here — that his new job doesn’t come with the same kind of external pressures that surrounded the old one — does not mean that his time in Orlando is going to be drama free. With the Knights headed to the Big 12 this season, history suggests the next few years are going to feel more like a ride on Space Mountain. 

When UCF received its Big 12 invitation in the fall of 2021, it was the culmination of several years and multiple administrations pushing the vision of a school with nearly 70,000 undergrads smack in the middle of talent-rich Florida growing into a nationally relevant power. 

Along the way, as UCF moved from independence to the Mid-American Conference to Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference, the Knights spent a lot of money to make themselves look like a Power Five program and won a lot of games. They even proclaimed themselves national champions in 2017 after going 13-0 and beating Malzahn’s Auburn team in the Peach Bowl. 

“I always told our staff at Auburn, if the right guy ever got to UCF and would stay and build it and not look at it as as a stepping stone, it could be one of the best jobs in college football,” Malzahn said. “Now that I’ve been there two years, I believe that even more.”

But the belief and promise of what UCF might become if given a power conference platform are about to meet the reality of actually competing week in and week out in a far more difficult league than the one they’ve been in. 

That often comes with some pain.

TCU, which had frequently been in the top 10 as a member of the Mountain West, went 7-6 and 4-8 in its first two Big 12 seasons. West Virginia has finished in the top-25 just twice in 11 seasons since the Big East disintegrated. Rutgers and Maryland have struggled to make significant strides since upgrading to the Big Ten. Though Texas A&M and Missouri have had a few moments of glory, neither of them have reached a higher level competitively since joining the SEC. Even Utah, which has become arguably the Pac 12’s best and most consistent program, had three losing conference records after making the transition.

Time and again during conference realignment, we learn that it’s just a different world when schools have to get out of their comfort zone. It’s not just new opponents and new venues, it’s the cumulative effect of playing bigger, stronger, faster teams week after week.

UCF proved under multiple coaches that it could beat top-level opponents in a one-off situation. But doing it all the time requires a level of roster depth and line-of-scrimmage physicality that Group of Five programs generally can’t recruit.

“You’ve got to bring your lunch every week,” Malzahn said. “That’ll be the difference. You can’t take off a week. It’ll be a learning experience for a lot of our guys in that area.”

Malzahn’s theory is that UCF is uniquely positioned to bypass some of those growing pains, in part because of his and his staff’s experience at the Power Five level and also due to a location that should make it easier to close the talent gap, either through the traditional recruiting process or the transfer portal.

With the Big 12 branding, Malzahn insists, recruits that weren’t accessible to UCF before are now legitimately in play. 

“There’s a lot of great players from just Daytona to Tampa, and even if we didn’t get them we recruited them extremely hard the last two years and developed those relationships,” he said. “They may go somewhere else, but if it doesn’t work out we want to bring them back (as transfers). It’s paid off already in a few areas, and I think it’ll do more in the future.”

But as Malzahn knows well, everything in the coaching profession hinges on calibrating the proper expectations and consistently meeting or exceeding them. When that didn’t happen at Auburn for a couple years, it made Malzahn vulnerable to the firing that eventually happened. 

Even though UCF might be a less intense job, getting that expectation to meet reality could prove to be even tougher. 

Given the euphoria of UCF’s looming Big 12 entry, Malzahn’s good-but-not-great 18-9 record over his first two seasons hasn’t mattered as much. The Knights had a nice season in 2022, but with losses to Louisville, East Carolina, Navy, Tulane in the AAC championship game and Duke in the Military Bowl, they were not close to the caliber of a football team that UCF had at its peak under George O’Leary, Scott Frost and Josh Heupel. 

Will Malzahn get the benefit of the doubt if UCF struggles initially in the Big 12? Few coaches have as much first-hand experience in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately emotional pendulum that comes with the job in places where they have won before and expect to win again. 

The intensity of those swings may not be the same at UCF as they were at Auburn, but with power conference membership on the horizon, there are no excuses preventing UCF from getting to where it wants to go. 

As Malzahn said, the two jobs come with very different challenges. But if history is any guide, the next couple years may feel like just as much of an uphill battle. 

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