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President Biden’s re-election campaign is launching a targeted effort to shore up support from Black voters in two swing states as his backing from the traditionally blue voting bloc continues to falter.

The effort, centered around an ad that will run in Georgia and North Carolina, comes after a bad month for Biden that saw his likely general election opponent, former President Trump, make significant gains among Black voters. Democratic strategists and liberal political pundits have also warned that Black enthusiasm for Biden’s re-election was waning.

The ad, titled ‘Compete,’ shows Patrick Brown, a Black farmer from North Carolina, praising Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for what he said was the administration’s investment in Black farming communities.

‘Joe Biden gets it. He is invested in us, getting us access to land, broadband, capital and infrastructure, so we can compete. It means a lot to have a president that listens. The laws the Biden-Harris administration has passed directly address our community,’ Brown said.

According to a CNN poll released last month, Biden and Harris face significantly weaker support from Black voters despite winning the group by a large margin in 2020. It found that just 73% of Black voters favor Biden in the 2024 election, compared to the 92% he received in the last election.

The poll also found that 23% of Black voters favor Trump, a huge jump from the 8% support he received in 2020.

A separate New York Times poll, also released last month, found similar views from Black voters, including 22% support for Trump.

‘Black voters are more disconnected from the Democratic Party than they have been in decades, frustrated with what many see as inaction on their political priorities and unhappy with President Biden, a candidate they helped lift to the White House just three years ago,’ Times reporters Maya King and Lisa Lerer wrote in another report.

They were not alone in their assessment. 

Just weeks later, MSNBC host and liberal Black activist Al Sharpton warned, ‘There is a lack of enthusiasm among young voters, particularly young Black voters, the Biden campaign needs to take seriously. You need to really build a ground game movement from the bottom-up, rather than poo-poo it and be in denial.’

In a Politico report published after Thanksgiving, Democratic strategists warned that Black voters were questioning their loyalty to the Democrat Party, including one who told the outlet that some Black business owners were frustrated over its focus on racial issues. 

‘We’re treating them like their only issue is racial issues, and not all of us, but to some extent some of us have moved past that,’ said Marcurius Byrd, who founded Young Democrats of the Central Midlands in South Carolina, and worked on Marianne Williamson’s campaign. He also said Black people were becoming ‘more educated.’

McKenzie Watson, a strategist who does advocacy for people with disabilities, said people were having a hard time and suggested the party should focus on fixing their home, and less so on other countries. 

‘We have people here who are suffering, who are struggling to keep a roof over their head,’ she said. ‘We have people that are struggling to have food on the table for their kids, to buy a house. It’s a lot of struggling that is going on here in the nation.… I support Ukraine and my heart goes out to the people of Ukraine. But it’s kind of like you need to fix your home. Your people here are suffering here as well.’

In a statement, Biden campaign manager Quentin Fulks said the president’s administration was ‘delivering for Black Americans and rural communities’ through investment in things like infrastructure, internet access, health care and pathways to land ownership.

‘We are ensuring every voter understands the choice in front of them: While MAGA Republicans push an extreme agenda that would harm Black and rural communities and take our country backward, a second term for President Biden and Vice President Harris would build on the work they’ve already accomplished for Black Americans and continue to deliver on the issues that matter most to our community,’ he added.

Fox News Digital asked the Biden campaign whether the push targeting Black voters was related to his flailing poll numbers among the voting bloc, but did not immediately receive a response.

Fox News’ Hanna Panreck and Brian Flood contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Detractors refer to Washington, D.C., as ‘the swamp.’

But this is about another swamp – specifically, the Senate ‘swamp.’

The Senate swamp is a geographic location on Capitol Hill. It’s just across from the Senate steps and where some Senate officials park their cars. Those who work and operate on Capitol Hill have referred to this spot as the Senate swamp for decades.

They started calling the locale the Senate swamp in 1964.

Legendary congressional correspondent Roger Mudd covered the filibuster of the Civil Rights Act for CBS. Mudd often did his TV standups from the Senate steps with a large clock behind him to show how much time had elapsed (eventually two months) during the filibuster.

Southern senators complained about Mudd standing on the Senate steps. The U.S. Capitol Police moved Mudd and his compadres in the press corps across the plaza to a grassy area. Well, one day it rained. And the correspondent was named ‘Mudd.’ So, they started referring to the area as the ‘Senate swamp.’

However, that site is anything but a swamp.

The area is paved. A panel of permanent, stainless steel TV jacks for networks to do live shots lines a narrow concrete façade. Reporters can face one direction and talk about Congress with the Capitol behind them. If reporters turn around, they can talk about legal opinions with the Supreme Court serving as a backdrop.

Or, someone like Hunter Biden can use the spot for a press conference, as he did Wednesday morning, publicly defying a House subpoena for a closed-door deposition.

The entrance to the Rayburn House Office Building is more than an eighth of a mile from the Senate swamp. A phalanx of reporters and photographers swarmed the halls of Rayburn, awaiting Hunter Biden’s anticipated arrival for a closed-door deposition. Another horde of journalists roamed the Rayburn ‘horseshoe,’ a semi-circular driveway which curves up to a side entrance across from the Longworth House Office Building.

No one was 100% sure whether Hunter Biden would show up.

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., issued a subpoena for Hunter Biden to ‘testify at a deposition touching matters of inquiry,’ at 9:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday in the Rayburn Building. The subpoena added that ‘you are not to depart without leave of said committee or subcommittee.’

In late November, Abbe Lowell — who is Hunter Biden’s attorney — countered Comer’s demand for a deposition with a demand of his own.

‘We have seen you use closed-door sessions to manipulate, even distort the facts and misinform the public,’ wrote Lowell to Comer. ‘We therefore propose opening the door.’

The ultimatum appeared to catch Comer and Republicans on the Oversight Committee off guard. Comer said he would grant Hunter Biden the chance to testify at an open hearing, but a closed-door deposition must come first. Comer cited how Democrats conducted multiple, private depositions in their impeachment investigation of former President Trump in the fall of 2019, ahead of public hearings a couple of months later.

So, Hunter Biden indeed showed up on Capitol Hill around 9:30 am Wednesday — but not anywhere near the Rayburn House Office Building.

Hunter Biden materialized an eighth of a mile away at the Senate swamp — that same locale where the Capitol Police banished Roger Mudd to report on the Civil Rights Act filibuster.

Hunter Biden’s Senate swamp maneuver was a filibuster unto itself when it came to ignoring James Comer’s subpoena. But his appearance was both political stagecraft and legal scheme bundled into one.

Hunter Biden showed up on Capitol Hill at the assigned time. But he wasn’t going anywhere close to the room where Comer planned a multi-hour deposition. Materializing at the Senate swamp site with the Capitol dome glimmering behind him was an effort by Hunter Biden to demonstrate he was willing to appear — just on his terms.

After a brief statement, Hunter Biden left the Senate swamp site, climbed into a van and departed.

Reporters and scribes were panting. Out of breath. Bent over. Hands holding their legs just above their knees like a gassed NBA shooting guard in the fourth quarter. They received word that Hunter Biden was coming to Capitol Hill. But most were over in the Rayburn House Office Building — nowhere near the spot where the news of the day unfolded.

So how and why did the Senate swamp become the hot venue for the story of the day?

It starts with Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif.

Lawmakers are permitted to use the Senate swamp site and a similar location called the ‘House triangle’ for press conferences and other events. The same with studios in the House and Senate Radio/TV Galleries inside the Capitol complex. However, the indoor locations generally require rank-and-file members to secure an invitation from a credentialed member of the congressional press corps.

It’s rare, but not unprecedented, for a House member to book an event on the Senate side. The same with a senator on the House side.

So Swalwell reserved the Senate swamp for a vague press event on Wednesday morning at 9:30. Only Swalwell had no intention of speaking to the press. This was Hunter Biden’s forum.

Those are the logistics.

But that doesn’t tell the full story.

There’s a reason why Hunter Biden showed up on the Senate side of Capitol Hill and not the House side.

Let’s say Hunter Biden ventured into the sea of reporters awaiting his prospective arrival at the Rayburn House Office Building, had his say and left. Or imagine if he had even done the same at the House triangle. The president’s son was already out of compliance with Comer’s subpoena by not attending the deposition. But showing up anywhere on the House side of the Capitol could have triggered a host of legal, constitutional and parliamentary issues for him.

You see, the House Sergeant at Arms has jurisdiction over the House side of the Capitol. Yes. The House and Senate meet in the same building. But constitutionally, they are distinct institutions. It’s conceivable that Comer could have argued to the Sergeant at Arms or the Capitol Police that his witness flaunted a subpoena if he showed up on House grounds — yet failed to testify.

It’s unlikely that congressional security officials truly would have done anything about it had Comer — or more specifically, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., demanded action for a witness defying a subpoena. The House does hold certain ‘inherent’ enforcement powers when it comes to contempt of Congress. Congress used to arrest and hold people for contempt of Congress in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. The last such action where Congress exercised its ‘inherent’ contempt powers was with a Department of Commerce official in the 1930s.

But Abbe Lowell is no fool.

He knew that his client could earn the media attention he wanted by coming to Capitol Hill at the precise time dictated by the subpoena — yet not setting foot anywhere near the House of Representatives. Hence, the Senate swamp.

And being on the Senate side provided something of a legal shield to inoculate Hunter Biden, which he would not have enjoyed on House turf.

Yes, Hunter Biden defied a subpoena and failed to appear for a deposition. It’s possible the House will vote to hold President Biden’s son in contempt of Congress. Such a referral could go to the Department of Justice for potential prosecution.

But in resisting the subpoena, Hunter Biden showed up at the Senate swamp.

It may be a swamp. But in this case, the terra firma of the Senate offered firmer legal footing to Hunter Biden than the marble floors of the Rayburn House Office Building.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

GOP presidential candidate Ron DeSantis said that the Satanic Temple ‘should not be recognized’ as a religion by the U.S. government.

DeSantis made the declaration on X Friday morning, saying that satanism does not have a place in American society.

The Florida governor’s tweet came after Mississippi state House candidate Michael Cassidy admitted to tearing down the Satanic Temple’s display in the Iowa state capitol. Cassidy was arrested Friday and charged with fourth-degree criminal mischief, KCCI reported.

‘Satan has no place in our society and should not be recognized as a ‘religion’ by the federal government,’ DeSantis tweeted. ‘I’ll chip in to contribute to this veteran’s legal defense fund.’

‘Good prevails over evil — that’s the American spirit,’ DeSantis continued.

DeSantis also addressed the Satanic Temple display at the Iowa state capitol during a recent CNN town hall event, pointing to former President Trump’s Internal Revenue Service (IRS) as to why the non-theistic religious organization is recognized as a religion.

In 2019, the IRS recognized the Satanic Temple as an official house of worship, granting the entity both tax-exempt status and protections under the First Amendment.

‘So it’s interesting, I heard this, and then I was like, ‘Well, how did it get there? Is that even a religion?’’ DeSantis said. ‘And low and behold, the Trump administration gave them approval to be under the IRS as a religion.’

‘So that gave them the legal ability to potentially do it,’ DeSantis said.

DeSantis said that ‘it very well may be because of that ruling’ under Trump that the Satanic Temple ‘may have had a legal leg to stand on.’

‘My view would be that that’s not a religion that the Founding Fathers were trying to create,’ DeSantis said. ‘But I do think that IRS ruling, I was really surprised to see that they did that.’

Jake Tapper noted that the IRS granting tax-exempt status does not necessarily mean the government supports satanism.

‘No, yeah, exactly,’ DeSantis responded. ‘But they recognized it as a religion, because otherwise you wouldn’t’ve been able to do it.’

‘I don’t think that was the right decision. Even as a religion, that’s wrong,’ he continued.

Lucien Greaves, one of the Satanic Temple’s founders, told Fox News Digital that ‘DeSantis’s remarks are raw cowardice dressed up in false heroism.’

‘He would like voters to believe that he is standing up against the Satanic Temple, but he is, in actuality, simply yielding to an angry, undemocratic mob that would rather see the fundamental pillars of democracy destroyed than suffer the nuisance of seeing a viewpoint they disagree with in a public forum,’ Greaves said.

‘It is cowardice that compels him to abandon his pledge of office to uphold constitutional law and religious liberty because he can not, or will not, articulate those ideals to voters, opting instead to appeal to their most base fears and ignorance,’ he continued.

‘I have announced that I am happy to debate DeSantis on these points at any time, but I suspect he is too cowardly for that as well,’ Greaves added.

The Satanic Temple was founded in 2013 and does not express belief in Satan, God, or any higher power.

Instead, the atheist organization follows ‘seven tenets’ that emphasize science and reason, and uses Satanic imagery to push their tenets and political goals, like abortion access and addressing ‘religious privilege.’

The organization has also been known to jab at Christians, and Greaves has openly stated that the group is ‘openly atheist,’ in a 2015 Salon interview.

‘Those who dislike us claim that we are not really a religion, but by what standard?’ Greaves said. ‘These things beg for definition. In the Hobby Lobby case, there was no sincerity test at all, and no test that their exemption had some kind of spiritual basis.’

‘In regard to our atheism, if you have a society that grants religious privilege and exemption, and you’re willing to give privilege and exemption to certain groups, then it’s unacceptable to give that only to people who believe in the supernatural,’ Greaves said.

‘We are openly atheist, but we have cultural identity and symbolic constructs that are deeply meaningful to our members,’ he continued.

In a text message to Fox News Digital, Cassidy confirmed that he had torn down the satanic display, which was erected last week by the Satanic Temple of Iowa to represent the group’s right to religious freedom.

‘It was extremely anti-Christian,’ Cassidy told Fox News Digital when asked why he had torn the statue down.

The former congressional candidate didn’t elaborate on why he had torn the statue down, but he posted a Bible verse Thursday night to X after being charged.

‘1 Peter 5:8 KJV Be sober, be vigilant; because your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about, seeking whom he may devour,’ he posted.

Fox News Digital’s Adam Sabes contributed reporting.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

As part of a crackdown under a China-imposed national security law, Hong Kong police have offered million-dollar bounties for information leading to the arrest of five overseas-based activists, including one American citizen.

Back in July, Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee, announced that eight pro-democracy activists living in the United States, Britain, Canada, and Australia would be pursued for life for alleged national security offenses.

Those arrests included former pro-democracy lawmakers Nathan Law, Ted Hui and Dennis Kwok, lawyer Kevin Yam, unionist Mung Siu-tat and activists Finn Lau, Anna Kwok and Elmer Yuen. 

The most recent arrest warrants were issued for Johnny Fok and Tony Choi, who host a YouTube channel focusing on current affairs, and pro-democracy activists Simon Cheng, Hui Wing-ting and Joey Siu.

The latest arrest warrants further intensified the Hong Kong government’s crackdown on dissidents after anti-government protests in 2019.

According to authorities, all were accused of breaching the Beijing-imposed national security law by committing offenses such as collusion with foreign powers and inciting secession.

Since 2020, when the law was validated, more than 260 people have been arrested.

Hong Kong’s Secretary for Security Chris Tang doubled down on the crackdown against the eight activists, saying authorities were seeking to cut access to their finances, including freezing and confiscating their assets.

Cheng wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he embraced the charges. ‘Being hunted by China (Hong Kong)’s secret police, under a one-million-dollar bounty, is a lifelong honor,’ he wrote.

The U.S. State Department said it strongly condemned the Hong Kong authorities’ actions and its ‘bounty list’ targeting democracy activists overseas, according to the Guardian.

‘That shows blatant disregard for international norms, for democracy and human rights,’ State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said at a regular news briefing on Thursday. ‘We deplore any attempt to apply the Beijing-imposed national security law extraterritorially and reiterate that Hong Kong authorities have no jurisdiction within United States borders, where the advocates for democracy and freedom will continue to enjoy their constitutionally guaranteed freedoms and rights.’

The U.K. foreign secretary, David Cameron, added that he had instructed officials in Hong Kong, Beijing and London to raise the issue as a matter of urgency with the Hong Kong and Chinese authorities.

In a statement released from his office, Cameron said, ‘We will not tolerate any attempt by any foreign power to intimidate, harass or harm individuals or communities in the UK. This is a threat to our democracy and fundamental human rights.’ 

The State Department was not immediately available for comment. 

Reuters contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, called out Vice President Kamala Harris for allegedly pushing President Biden and other administration officials to be more sympathetic towards Palestinians.

His comments come after Politico reported Thursday that Harris has recently been pushing those in the Biden administration, including Biden himself, to be more sympathetic towards Palestinians and show more concern for the damage in Gaza.

One person close to the vice president’s office told the outlet that the U.S. should start being ‘tougher’ on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In a statement to Fox News, Cruz said ‘Since day 1 Biden administration officials have been pathologically obsessed with undermining Israel. Unfortunately and infuriatingly, that obsession continues in the aftermath of Hamas’s atrocities on October 7. The costs for America and Israel’s national security are catastrophic.’

The source allegedly said that Harris has been ‘more forceful at seeking a long-term peace and two-state solution.’

Harris’ Press Secretary Kirsten Allen told the outlet ‘there is no daylight between the president and the vice president, nor has there been,’ adding the vice president and Biden ‘have been clear: Israel has a right and responsibility to defend itself; humanitarian aid must be allowed to flow into Gaza; innocent civilians must be protected; and the United States remains committed to a two-state solution.’

‘I would caution the media about citing anonymous sources in the ‘orbit’ about sensitive national security conversations between the president and vice president that take place in the Oval Office,’ Allen said.

The report comes after Biden said during a fundraiser on Tuesday that Israel is losing global support.

‘And, folks, look, if you think about it, one of the things that Bibi understands, I think, now — but I’m not sure Ben-Gvir and his War Cabinet do, who I’ve spoken to several times — is that Israel’s security can rest on the United States, but right now it has more than the United States,’ Biden said. ‘It has the European Union, it has Europe, it has most of the world supporting it.  But they’re starting to lose that support by the indiscriminate bombing that takes place.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

This is a great time to examine the weekly charts of the Economic Modern Family. We like that timeframe for now, with only a short number of trading days left. And there’s lots of news constantly unfolding:

Rate cuts/no rate cutsMiddle East heating up with shipping routes in dangerSoft landing/no soft landingInflation cooling-according to the cooked up numbersConsumer sentiment high

So, off to the charts we go.

For our Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM), the 2022 high at 227.13 is not even close. However, the 2023 high at 199.26 was taken out this week. Plus, IWM closed under that level, making a double or even triple top a possibility.

How would we know? IWM fails 194. Of course, a move over 200 will be a reason to love Santa even more.

Granny Retail (XRT) has moved well, but, comparatively, it’s still below its 2023 high at 75.77. So, Granny helps, but needs to do more. And under 68.00 could be considered a breakdown.

Transportation (IYT) is also at resistance near its 2023 high of 267.85. For reference, its all time high is 282.40 made in 2021. As long as this holds 257, we will remain optimistic.

And that covers the “inside sectors” of the US economy. Strong but frothy and into major resistance. No doubt the US economy outperforms globally.

Emerging Markets

Two weeks ago, we featured the ratio between SPY and Emerging Markets, at 50-year lows. Clearly, EEM has rallied since then. And as we wrote December 1st, “Should EEM clear the 23-month MA that is a start. The risk would be clear, under the low of the month EEM close over the 23-month MA. Then, we would look to see if EEM can clear what appears to be the scene of the breakdown crime, or at 42-43.00.”

That has happened, FYI.

Now, back to our next member of the Family — our Wonder Woman Sister Semiconductors (SMH). SMH made new all-time highs handily. The move over 160 (which was the number we kept writing had to hold) measures to around 240. Can she do it? The only thing that would stop her is if by the end of December, SMH cannot close over 174. That would be a key failure of the monthly chart using Bolinger Bands.

Brother Biotechnology (IBB) proves why weekly charts and stepping back should be part of any trader’s analysis. This week, IBB cleared 120 (as we wrote about as well as a key point), and the 50-week moving average. However, IBB has the 200-WMA looming. And it remains an underperformer. But IBB cleared the 23-month for the first time since 2021. That’s good. So, we watch to see if IBB holds 125 by the end of December.

Lastly, there’s Regional Banks (KRE), our Prodigal Son and everyone’s favorite son. On the monthly chart (not shown), it is right up to resistance at the 23-month MA. On the weekly chart, KRE is at major resistance at the 200-WMA. While this move has wiped out a lot of the losses after the March crash, KRE needs more work to really join the party. Moreover, we are watching KRE to hold 48-49 before we get worried about another down move.

And speaking of Santa, look out for the Outlook 2024 to be released this week!

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com, our Head of Institutional Sales. Cell: 612-518-2482.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish makes the case for Vaxcyte (PCVX) and presents the bullish case for gold in this appearance on Business First AM from November 29th.

Mish talksabout money supply, debt, the consumer, inflation and trends that could gain traction in 2024 with Nicole Petallides on Schwab Network.

On the Tuesday, November 28 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, Mish presents 6 stock picks with specific actionable plans.

Mish covers the technical setup for Palo Alto and how MarketGauge’s quant models found this winner on Business First AM.

Mish and Maggie Lake cover inflation, technology, commodities and stock picks in this interview with Real Vision.

Mish talks trading range, fundamentals, and how to think about commodities right now on Yahoo! Finance.

In this appearance on BNN Bloomberg, Mish covers the emotional state of oil and gold, plus talks why small caps are the key right now. She also presents a couple of picks!

Learn how to trade commodities better with Mish in this interview with CNBC Asia!

Mish and Charles Payne discuss why the small caps, now in mid range still have a chance to rally in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Mish talks about Tencent Music Entertainment on Business First AM.

Coming Up:

December 20: Outlook 2024 with StockCharts

December 22: Yahoo! Finance

December 28: Singapore Breakfast Radio

January 2: The Final Bar with David Keller, StockCharts TV

January 5: Daily Briefing, Real Vision

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 475 resistance, 465 underlying support.Russell 2000 (IWM): 200 resistance, 194 support.Dow (DIA): Strongest index; needs to hold 370.Nasdaq (QQQ): 410 resistance with support at 395.Regional Banks (KRE): 47 support, 55 resistance.Semiconductors (SMH): 174 pivotal support to hold this month.Transportation (IYT): Needs to clear these highs and hold 250.Biotechnology (IBB): 130 pivotal support.Retail (XRT): Huge gap up last 2 days of the week; that now needs to hold.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

The market exploded higher after already being on a winning streak for 5 weeks. While there are blow-off top vibes, there could be a lot of money able to come in from the sidelines to keep the market going. In this week’s edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes, TG explains why it’s important to keep thinking about rotation and finding stocks in good locations. Things could keep going, especially after any sort of pullback.

This video was originally broadcast on December 15, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of Moxie Indicator Minutes premiere weekly. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link.

On this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, legendary trader and author Larry Williams joins Dave to share his lessons learned in 2023, his outlook for stocks in 2024, and which cycles he feels all investors should be following into the new year.

This video originally premiered on December 15, 2023. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon LIVE at 4pm ET. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen shows you what to be on the alert for, with the broader markets in an oversold position as we head into year-end. She also highlights which areas are poised to continue to trade higher, sharing some individual stocks that she’s keeping an eye on — and that you should too!

This video originally premiered December 15, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The MEM Edge premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link. You can also receive a 4-week free trial of her MEM Edge Report by clicking the image below.

Enthusiasm is needed to drive an uptrend, but sometimes enthusiasm can go too far. That is why technical analysts like to use various sentiment indicators and surveys, in order to see when all the buyers who are going to get in have already done so.

This week’s chart shows some data that not very many analysts pay attention to, which of course makes me more interested in watching it. After all, if I looked at the indicators that everyone looks at, then I would only know what everyone else knows.

The chart shows the total shares outstanding in HYG, which is the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF. The way that ETFs are structured means that the number of shares outstanding can expand and contract as more or fewer people are interested in investing in them. Thus the fluctuations in the numbers of shares outstanding can serve as an indication of the public mood toward risk for that particular ETF or fund category.

Right now, that mood is one of enthusiastic acceptance of risk, as the small rise in HYG has led to a 64% rise in its shares outstanding just since the Oct. 31 low point. That is a big swing in enthusiasm for just a small upswing in prices, and it has unfolded rapidly, indicating that investors are eager to get in, not just that they are being pulled in by a price gain in the ETFs shares. Typically, the market likes to punish those who get overly enthusiastic, although the market does not necessarily have to do that right away just because we notice that sentiment condition.

High-yield corporate bonds trade more like stocks than like T-Bonds, and they draw from the same sources of liquidity as the stock market. Because HY bonds are lower-grade investment products, they tend to suffer first when liquidity starts to dry up. For that reason, I like to monitor the A-D Line for those HY Bonds, as referenced in the article linked at the end of this article. It often shows signs of weakness ahead of the stock market, which makes it a useful harbinger of trouble. Right now, that A-D Line is very strong, just as the share price of HYG is strong, and so the message of liquidity is one of continuing strength. If liquidity is so strong that even the marginal types of investments can do well, then it is likely to remain strong for a while longer. So it is a bullish revelation that the HY bonds are doing well.

But it is a troubling revelation that, at the same time, ETF traders are piling so aggressively into HYG, expecting it to keep doing well. That says there is excessive eagerness at the moment, which implies that the market is likely to do what it usually does, i.e. punish that eagerness.

For those who want to track these data on shares outstanding yourselves, you can go to the iShares web page for that fund and click the link for “Data Download” to get an Excel file. It is also available on some quote systems under the symbol $HYG.SO.