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FIRST ON FOX: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is spearheading a bicameral reintroduction of legislation that would jail illegal immigrants who repeatedly enter the U.S. after being deported – as the U.S. continues to tackle an ongoing migrant crisis at the border.

‘Kate’s Law,’ also called the Stop Illegal Reentry Act, was first introduced in 2015 and named after Kate Steinle, who died after being shot in 2015 by an illegal immigrant who had been deported multiple times and had prior convictions. He was ultimately acquitted of murder after arguing that the gun accidentally fired when he picked it up.

Cruz’s legislation was blocked by Democrats after its first introduction, but Cruz has continued to introduce the bill in each Congress. The bill would set a federal mandatory minimum of five years in prison for any illegal reentry offense.

Now it is being introduced again with a Republican-controlled House and a slim Democrat majority in the upper chamber, and it comes amid a broader push by Republicans and conservatives to implement tougher policies to prevent illegal entry, including more deportations and additional border security.

‘Eight years ago, when I first introduced Kate’s Law, I was just as shocked and dismayed that Kate Steinle was killed by an illegal felon who had reentered the U.S. as I am today,’ Cruz said in a statement to Fox News Digital on Wednesday. ‘Almost a decade has gone by since this shooting, and we have yet to strengthen federal law to prevent a tragedy like this from recurring.’

‘The first time this legislation was stopped by Senate Democrats, I vowed to continue fighting for Kate’s Law, and I am proud to introduce this legislation once again to prevent aggravated felons from preying on innocent Americans,’ he said.

The push comes as the U.S. is still dealing with more than 200,000 migrant encounters at the border each month. In fiscal year 2023 so far, there have been more than 1.6 million migrant encounters, after nearly 2.4 million in fiscal year 2022, which set a new record. In May, there were more than 204,000 migrant encounters.

Republicans have blamed the policies of the Biden administration for the surge, including more instances of ‘catch and release,’ the end of the Trump-era border wall construction, the end of the ‘Remain in Mexico’ policy and reduced interior enforcement.

The Biden administration has said it is working to fix an asylum system gutted by the Trump administration, and it has recently been touting a sharp drop in encounters since new policies were implemented – including an asylum ineligibility for some illegal immigrants – on May 11. It has also called for a comprehensive immigration reform bill to be passed in Congress, including more funding and a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

In the House, the push for the legislation is being led by Stephanie Bice, R-Okla. In the Senate, Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, are co-sponsoring the push with Cruz.

‘Earlier this year in Texas, an individual who had been deported four times killed five individuals, proving the extensive flaws in our immigration system,’ Bice said in a statement. ‘Under the Biden administration the southern border is completely out of control, with record-breaking crossings occurring every month. In Fiscal Year 2022, CBP arrested 12,028 individuals with criminal convictions. This legislation would impose tougher criminal penalties against illegal immigrants who have committed violent crimes, and those who illegally reenter the United States after previously being deported.’

Cotton said illegal immigrants who reenter after being deported ‘show a knowing and willful disregard for our laws.’

‘This bill will ensure that illegal aliens who return to the U.S. face serious prison time,’ he said.

The legislation is being introduced a day after new turnover was announced in the Department of Homeland Security’s staff. Deputy Secretary John Tien announced his retirement Tuesday after both Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz and Acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Tae Johnson both said they will depart later this month.

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Hunter Biden is scheduled to make his first court appearance in Delaware on federal tax and gun charges next month on July 26, Fox News has learned. 

He will appear in front of Judge Maryellen Noreika. 

President Biden’s son, 53, has agreed to plead guilty to two misdemeanor counts of willful failure to pay federal income tax. 

‘Despite owing in excess of $100,000 in federal income taxes each year, he did not pay the income tax due for either year,’ the U.S. Attorney for the District of Delaware David C. Weiss’ office said Tuesday. 

BIDEN’S ‘FARCICAL’ PLEA DEAL DEMANDS AN EXPLANATION, SEN. SCOTT TELLS AG GARLAND 

HUNTER BIDEN’S LAWYER SAYS CLIENT ‘HAPPY TO MOVE ON’ AFTER PLEA DEAL, DOESN’T KNOW IF LAPTOP WAS PART OF PROBE 

Hunter Biden will also enter into a pretrial diversion agreement regarding a separate felony charge of possession of a firearm by a person who is an unlawful user of or addicted to a controlled substance.

When asked about his son by a reporter Tuesday, the president said: ‘I’m very proud of my son.’ 

The White House reacted to the charges Tuesday morning.  

‘The President and first lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life,’ White House spokesperson Ian Sams said in a statement. ‘We will have no further comment.’

Hunter Biden’s plea deal has also sparked criticism from Republicans, some of whom have suggested he’s getting a ‘sweetheart’ deal because he’s the president’s son.

‘It’s no coincidence that less than a week after President Trump is arraigned by the DOJ, Hunter Biden is pleading guilty to a sweetheart deal with no jail time,’ Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., told Fox News Digital in a statement. ‘The DOJ is going for the low-hanging fruit by charging Hunter Biden with a gun felony and two tax misdemeanors, after years of slow walking their investigation.’

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The House of Representatives voted Wednesday to censure Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., for pushing claims that former President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign colluded with Russia — a vote that made Schiff just the third member of the House to be censured since the turn of the century.

The resolution passed 213-209 in a vote — every Republican voted for it except for six who voted ‘present,’ and every Democrat voted against it.

Immediately following the vote, Democrats gathered on the floor and chanted ‘Shame!’ and ‘Disgrace!’ as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., tried to gavel the House in order for several minutes. Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., was heard calling McCarthy a ‘spiteful coward’ and accusing him of ‘weak leadership.’

McCarthy then asked Schiff to present himself in the well of the House, and Democrats clapped and cheered as he approached. After being interrupted several times by Democrats, McCarthy said, ‘I have all night.’

Schiff then stood in well of the House as required by the resolution, and was hugged and cheered by dozens of Democrats who surrounded him. The measure also requires the House Committee on Ethics to investigate Schiff’s ‘falsehoods, misrepresentations, and abuses of sensitive information.’

It was the second time the House tried to pass a resolution censuring Schiff from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla. A resolution from Luna failed on the House floor last week because it recommended a fine against Schiff of $16 million, which Democrats and 20 Republicans opposed.

With that language removed, the resolution was able to pass on a party-line vote, which Luna said was needed to fight back against Schiff’s ‘lies’ about Trump.

‘As chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Adam Schiff launched an all-out political campaign built on baseless distortions against a sitting U.S. president, at the expense of every single citizen in this country and the honor of the House of Representatives,’ Luna said before the vote. ‘With access to sensitive information unavailable to most members of Congress and certainly not accessible to the American people, Schiff abused his privileges, claiming to know the truth while leaving Americans in the dark about his web of lies… lies so severe that they altered the course of the country forever.’

Schiff spoke in his own defense on the House floor, and thanked Republicans for bringing the resolution forward again.

‘To my Republican colleagues who introduced this resolution, I thank you. You honor me with your enmity, you flatter me with this falsehood,’ Schiff said.

‘You, who are the authors of a big lie about the last election, must condemn the truth tellers,’ he said. ‘And I stand proudly before you. Your words tell me that I have been effective in the defense of our democracy, and I am grateful.’

Schiff was a leader of Trump’s first impeachment proceeding, which was launched over a phone call made to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in which he tried to leverage U.S. military aid in a bid to get him to announce an investigation of now-President Biden.

Democrats tried to table the resolution to censure Schiff on Wednesday but failed in a 218-208 vote along party lines.

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi did not mince words when she accused Republicans of doing Trump’s bidding and told them they looked ‘miserable’ in the process.

‘The other side has turned this chamber where slavery was abolished, where Medicare and Social Security and everything were instituted, they’ve turned it into a puppet show,’ Pelosi said. ‘And you know what? The puppeteer, Donald Trump, is shining a light on the strings. You look miserable. You look miserable… you’re wasting time.’

The vote is not the first time House Republicans have used their majority in this Congress to target Schiff. McCarthy pulled Schiff off the Intelligence Committee this year for promoting claims that the 2016 Trump campaign was working with Russia, an allegation that was never proven.

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President Joe Biden’s $400 billion student loan forgiveness program survived a procedural challenge on Wednesday as the House couldn’t find the votes to override his veto of a bill aimed at killing the program.

The House passed a resolution in May to end what Republicans say is an illegal attempt by Biden to forgive billions in student loans, effectively throwing that debt on the backs of taxpayers. After the Senate approved the same resolution, Biden vetoed it in June.

On Wednesday, the House tried to override that veto but failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed. The House voted 221-206 to override Biden, dozens of votes short of the target thanks to Democrats who all voted to protect Biden’s veto – except for two who voted with the GOP.

Rep. Bobby Scott, D-Va., argued on behalf of Democrats that 43 million Americans are eligible for ‘loan relief’ under Biden’s plan, many of whom are low-income people who need such relief. But Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., argued that Americans know that the program unfairly shifts this debt to taxpayers.

‘President Biden’s radical plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt via executive fiat is utter hogwash. The American people are not fooled by the deceptive, doctored-up talking points on student loans that the left has attempted to force-feed them over the past two years.’

The House vote effectively kills the attempt by Republicans in Congress to terminate Biden’s controversial loan program. But the Supreme Court may yet rule against it in an upcoming case and could issue that ruling in a matter of days.

The resolution was written under the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to kill recent executive branch decisions. The House passed the resolution, 218-203, in May, and that was followed by a 52-46 vote in the Senate – neither of those margins were enough to override Biden’s veto.

When Biden vetoed the resolution, he argued that the COVID-19 pandemic was a reason to provide up to $20,000 in student loan debt relief to millions of Americans.

‘The pandemic was devastating for families across the nation,’ Biden said. ‘To give borrowers the essential relief they need as they recover from the economic strains associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department of Education created a program to provide up to $10,000 in debt relief – and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients – reaching more than 40 million hard-working Americans.’

While the COVID emergency is over, Biden and other Democrats say that relief is still needed.

‘It is a shame for working families across the country that lawmakers continue to pursue this unprecedented attempt to deny critical relief to millions of their own constituents, even as several of these same lawmakers have had tens of thousands of dollars of their own business loans forgiven by the Federal Government,’ Biden said in his veto message.

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Sens. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., have asked the FBI to turn over an unredacted version of the document containing allegations that President Biden was involved in a criminal bribery scheme with a foreign national that involved influence over U.S. policy decisions.

Grassley and Graham are also demanding to know whether the FBI has investigated allegations in the document, and whether it is within the scope of U.S. Attorney David Weiss’ investigation into Hunter Biden and his tax affairs.

The document in question is the FBI-generated FD-1023 form. The form, dated June 30, 2020, reflects the FBI’s interview with a ‘highly credible’ confidential source who detailed multiple meetings and conversations he or she had with a top executive of Ukrainian natural gas firm Burisma Holdings over the course of several years, starting in 2015.

Fox News Digital has not seen the form, which is redacted, but it was described by several sources who are aware of its contents.

Graham, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and Grassley, who first was approached by a whistleblower notifying him of the document in question, wrote to the FBI on Wednesday.

‘The FBI’s continued efforts to hide relevant facts from Congress and the American people, as well as its failure to describe any investigative steps taken, will not repair its tarnished reputation,’ Graham and Grassley wrote. ‘It will do the exact opposite.’

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., subpoenaed the document, but the FBI did not comply. Comer threatened to hold FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress.

Instead, the FBI brought the document to Capitol Hill for lawmakers on that committee to review in a secure facility.

‘The allegations contained in the FD-1023 raise serious concerns,’ the senators wrote, noting that the FBI’s ‘conduct to this point has not allowed’ lawmakers to conduct legitimate oversight.

‘In light of the continued failure to transparently address the unclassified FD-1023, we are requesting that the FBI immediately produce an unredacted version directly to the Senate Judiciary Committee and describe, in detail, the steps it has taken to investigate all allegations in the document including whether it is within the scope of U.S. Attorney David Weiss’s review,’ they wrote.

The FBI did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment, but has previously told Fox News Digital that it has not physically turned over the document to Congress in an effort to protect the bureau’s long-standing sources and methods.

Sources told Fox News Digital that the confidential human source told the FBI that the Burisma executive was speaking with the confidential source to ‘get advice on the best way to go forward’ in 2015 and 2016 to gain U.S. oil rights and get involved with a U.S. oil company.

According to the FD-1023 form, the confidential human source said the Burisma executive discussed Hunter Biden’s role on the board. The confidential human source questioned why the Burisma executive needed his or her advice in acquiring access to U.S. oil if he had Hunter Biden on the board. The Burisma executive answered by referring to Hunter Biden as ‘dumb.’

The Burisma executive explained to the confidential source that Burisma had to ‘pay the Bidens’ because Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin was investigating Burisma, and explained how difficult it would be to enter the U.S. market in the midst of that investigation.

The confidential source suggested to the Burisma executive that he ‘pay the Bidens $50,000 each,’ to which the Burisma executive replied, it is ‘not $50,000,’ it is ‘$5 million.’

‘$5 million for one Biden, $5 million for the other Biden,’ the Burisma executive told the confidential human source, according to a source familiar with the document.

A source familiar said according to the document, the $5 million payments appeared to reference a kind of ‘retainer’ Burisma intended to pay the Bidens to deal with a number of issues, including the investigation led by Shokin. Another source referred to the arrangement as a ‘pay-to-play’ scheme.

Sources familiar told Fox News Digital that the confidential human source believes that the $5 million payment to Joe Biden and the $5 million payment to Hunter Biden occurred, based on his or her conversations with the Burisma executive.

The confidential source said the Burisma executive told him he ‘paid’ the Bidens in such a manner ‘through so many different bank accounts’ that investigators would not be able to ‘unravel this for at least 10 years.’

The document then makes reference to ‘the Big Guy,’ which many believe is a reference to Joe Biden.

Biden has acknowledged that when he was vice president, he successfully pressured Ukraine to fire Shokin. At the time, Shokin was investigating Burisma Holdings, and at the time, Hunter Biden had a highly lucrative role on the board receiving thousands of dollars per month. The then-vice president threatened to withhold $1 billion of critical U.S. aid if Shokin was not fired.

Last week, Grassley said that the Burisma executive who allegedly paid Joe Biden and Hunter Biden kept 17 audio recordings of his conversations with them as an ‘insurance policy.’

Grassley said the FD-1023 has a redacted reference that the Burisma executive possesses 15 audio recordings of phone calls between himself and Hunter Biden.

According to Grassley, the FD-1023 also states that the executive possesses two audio recordings of phone calls between himself and then-Vice President Biden.

The White House has maintained that President Biden has never been involved in his son’s business dealings and has never discussed them with him. And it has noted that removing Shokin was administration policy at the time.

Hunter Biden this week agreed to plead guilty to two misdemeanor counts of willful failure to pay federal income tax, and also agreed to enter into a pretrial diversion agreement regarding a separate charge of possession of a firearm by a person who is an unlawful user of or addicted to a controlled substance.

The charges stem from Weiss’ years-long investigation, which he said Tuesday is ‘ongoing.’

Hunter Biden’s first court appearance is scheduled for July 26.

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The Wisconsin Assembly on Wednesday is expected to pass a Republican-authored, bipartisan bill opposed by anti-abortion groups that would allow pharmacists to prescribe and dispense birth control.

The GOP-controlled Assembly passed the measure with broad bipartisan support last session, but it died in the Senate. Its sponsor, Republican Rep. Joel Kitchens, has said he’s optimistic it will get a Senate vote this session.

This marks the first time the bill has come up since Wisconsin’s 1849 law banning abortion went back into effect after last year’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. Republicans and their anti-abortion allies, who suffered a series of defeats in ballot questions in states across the political spectrum since that ruling, are tackling the issue nationwide in a variety of ways.

In addition to the pharmacist birth control bill, Wisconsin Republicans also introduced a measure that would create rape and incest exceptions under that state’s abortion ban. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has vowed to veto anything that doesn’t return state law to how it was before Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Evers backs a lawsuit brought by the state’s Democratic attorney general that seeks to overturn the state ban. That case is expected to ultimately be decided by the state’s Supreme Court, which flips from conservative to liberal control in August. The winning liberal Supreme Court candidate in an April election ran as a supporter of abortion rights.

Republicans behind the bill allowing pharmacists to prescribe and dispense common birth control pills and hormonal contraceptive patches say it is a way to prevent more unwanted pregnancies. Under current law, women can only obtain most birth control through a prescription written by a doctor or advanced practice nurse.

The measure, which Democrats have introduced in the past, has bipartisan support in the Assembly. But it’s unclear whether the Senate will take it up. It must pass both the Senate and Assembly, and be signed by Evers, before taking effect. Republican Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu did not immediately return an email seeking comment.

‘I certainly am pessimistic about that bill making it through the Senate,’ said Democratic state Rep. Lisa Subeck, who joined with fellow Democrats in proposing a bill Wednesday that would make access to birth control a right under state law. ‘It certainly seems to be a showpiece for Assembly Republicans that they can’t get their Senate colleagues to buy into.’

Evers supports the bill and would sign it into law should it pass the Legislature, his spokesperson Britt Cudaback said.

A wide array of groups support the measure, including the Pharmacy Society of Wisconsin, the Wisconsin chapter of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, the Wisconsin Association of Local Health Departments and Boards, the Wisconsin Public Health Association and the Wisconsin Primary Health Care Association.

Opponents include Pro-Life Wisconsin, the Wisconsin Catholic Conference and Wisconsin Family Action.

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Pennsylvania’s Democrat-controlled House of Representatives passed a bill Wednesday that, if signed into law, would incrementally raise the state’s minimum wage, reaching $15 per hour by 2026.The bill must still clear the state Senate, whose Republican majority leaves the bill’s future uncertain.Pennsylvania’s minimum wage is currently $7.25 per hour, the lowest allowed by federal law.

Pennsylvania’s Democratic-controlled House of Representatives approved a measure by a close vote Tuesday that would raise the minimum wage to $15 by 2026, fulfilling a long-held party campaign plank that has run up against Republican legislative majorities for years.

The bill passed 103-100 with all but one Democrat voting for it and two Republicans joining them. But it has an uncertain future in the Republican-controlled Senate as lawmakers and Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro increasingly focus on budget legislation ahead of the July 1 start of the new fiscal year.

Pennsylvania’s minimum wage is set at the federal minimum of $7.25, and last increased in 2009.

The measure would gradually increase the minimum wage to $15 by changing from $7.25 to $11 in its first year, then to $13 in 2025 and finally to $15 in 2026. The bill ties future increases to inflation, which sponsors say mirrors action taken by 15 other states.

The legislation would also increase the tipped wage to 60% of the minimum wage from the current $2.83 an hour. The movement comes after Democrats won a House majority for the first time in a dozen years, albeit by one seat.

It’s been a yearslong effort for Democrats, who have campaigned on increasing the minimum wage nationally.

Rep. Justin Fleming, a Dauphin County Democrat, said it was one of his priorities as a candidate. He recalled working for a former Democratic governor when the Legislature last increased the minimum wage.

‘If you had told me that it would be 14 years before this body would take another stab to raise the minimum wage, I simply wouldn’t have believed it,’ he said. ‘Passing this bill will keep workers who live close to our borders here in the state and patronizing Pennsylvania businesses.’

Republicans emphasized concerns for small businesses and rising costs associated with raising the wage.

‘I cannot support a bill that would put a local family restaurant out of business and, along with it, the many employees who make a living at their three locations,’ said Rep. Kate Klunk, a York County Republican.

For some Democrats, the effort didn’t extend far enough.

‘An African proverb says, ‘When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers,’’ said Dauphin County Democratic Rep. Patty Kim. ‘Even if we raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, the grass still suffers. I support this bill because this is a piece to a larger puzzle that will help working families.’

Shapiro campaigned last year for a $15 minimum wage and, in his first budget address, he asked for the increase. Republican opposition stymied efforts by former Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf through his eight years in office to raise the minimum wage.

Wolf imposed higher wage requirements on companies getting loans, grants or tax breaks from the state government through an executive order in 2021. He did the same to state contractors in 2016.

All told, 30 other states and Washington, D.C., have raised the minimum wage above the federal minimum, including some Republican-controlled states, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Every neighbor of Pennsylvania also has raised the minimum wage, although Ohio’s law exempts lower-earning businesses and employees under 16.

June is budget month in Pennsylvania’s Legislature and often a time for deal-making on pet policy priorities between governors and top lawmakers.

Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman, R-Indiana, said last week that his caucus would wait for the House to pass a minimum wage bill to consider it. However, he said, ‘$15 an hour is not a practical number’ for Republicans in that chamber to consider.

In a deal with Wolf in 2019, the Senate agreed to raise Pennsylvania’s minimum wage in four steps to $9.50 in 2022, but the House’s Republican majority blocked it.

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Pennsylvania state senators began advancing legislation Wednesday that would liberalize the state’s 5-year-old medical marijuana program by expanding the scope of who can buy it and allowing it to be sold in edible form.

The three-bill package passed the Senate Law and Justice Committee almost unanimously.

The bills won the votes of every Democrat on the committee, as well as the votes of the committee’s Republican chair and the chamber’s top Republican, Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward, of Westmoreland County.

The bills still must pass the Republican-controlled Senate and the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives. The votes come as a growing number of states are legalizing marijuana for adult nonmedical use, including neighboring Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and New York.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, supports the legalization of adult-use marijuana, but the idea has run into opposition from most GOP lawmakers.

One bill would eliminate the state’s qualifying list of ailments under which a doctor could prescribe medical marijuana and, instead, simply grant a patient’s doctor the power to prescribe it for any condition. Under current regulations, a state regulatory board has approved a list of 24 categories of ailments that qualify for a doctor’s prescription.

Other aspects would eliminate the need to renew a medical marijuana card annually and allow medical marijuana to be sold in edible form. It currently can be sold in pills, oils, liquids, creams and dried plant that can be smoked.

Another bill would allow licensed marijuana growers to open dispensaries where they can sell the product directly to patients.

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On Wednesday, we began to see a separation between what Chairman of the Fed Powell said on fighting inflation and the inflation indicators themselves. 

Food commodities, particularly grains, soared. Weather is the dominant factor as we head into the summer season. Happy June equinox.

Oil rallied, and we hope you read the daily yesterday on why oil could rise (and did). Hoarding is next, as is Round 2 of Inflation. Plus, the dollar is holding, but feels vulnerable. Furthermore, long bonds are holding.

Once we see the risk gauges we like to use from our Big View flip to risk off, even the Magnificent 7 will have a hard time. Meanwhile, in the search for green today on the board, besides commodities, we noticed another type of green in the green.

MSOS, the ETF for U.S. Cannabis, has been left for dead. The ETF provides exposure solely to American cannabis and hemp companies, including multi-state operators.

Interestingly, 99.64% of the basket’s holdings is the U.S. Dollar. I checked ChatGPT to find out more about that. It means that the ETF allocates a significant portion of its assets to holdings denominated in US dollars. We also learned that the ETF manager might hold US dollars as a defensive position during uncertain market conditions. Cash holdings can act as a buffer against market volatility or as a safe haven asset. This could suggest that, with the horrid performance of MSOS, should the ETF increase in price and value, the dollar holdings will lessen.

The chart shows the move above the 50-DMA (blue line). The Real Motion chart is more intriguing. Note how the momentum indicator (red dots) are above the 2 moving averages (blue and green).

The 50 (blue) DMA is about to cross over the 200 (green) DMA. The red dots are also clearing the Bollinger Band.

Talk about a short float?

We will watch next moves carefully to see if Cannabis takes flight or once again, goes up in smoke.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish and Ashley discuss buying raw materials and keeping an eye on Biotech on Fox Business’s Making Money with Charles Payne.

Ahead of the Fed’s announcement, Mish shares her take on major currency pairs, starting with EUR/USD, in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish joins Ash Bennington to discuss the market’s response to today’s inflation data, the AI-powered tech rally, whether we’re seeing signs of exhaustion in equities ahead of the Fed announcement on Real Vision.

Mish explains how the Russell 2000 is the canary in a coal mine on Business First AM.

Mish offers her technical forecasts for gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and WTI Crude Oil ahead of today’s CPI report on CMC Markets.

Mish Schneider and TG Watkins continue their chat about the business of trading in this video from StockCharts TV. Topics range from their work/home life balance, how being a consumer does or does not play into their trading decisions, and what they do in their free time to unwind.

Mish and Nicole Petallides go over rates, key sectors and the economy in this video from TD Ameritrade. They also discuss what raw materials are coming into vogue.

Mish and Jon talk about what could make markets continue or reverse and what to buy right now on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell.

Mish and Charles talk inflation fears, the “wall of worry” and trading large-caps on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

The first 5 months of 2023 have been rallying on optimism going forward. Will that continue for the next few months? Mish digs into that question in this Twitter Spaces conversation with Wolf Financial.

Mish discusses impacts of weather, labor market and the FED on tap on Fox Business’ Coast to Coast with Neil Cavuto.

The US dollar rallied following a positive US jobs report last Friday, but could the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision halt the greenback’s rise? Mish offers her views on USD/JPY, the S&P 500, and light crude oil futures on CMC Markets.

Mish talks GME (Gamestop) and more on Business First AM.

Where is the US economy actually heading? Rajeev Suri of Orios discusses this question and what trends suggest with Mish in this video.

Coming Up:

June 22: Forex Premarket Show with Dale Pinkert

June 23: Your Daily Five on StockCharts TV

June 26: Podcast FreeFX

June 27: The Final Bar with Dave Keller on StockCharts TV

July 6: Yahoo Finance

July 7: TD Ameritrade

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 440 pivotal with potential reversal–has to break under 434.Russell 2000 (IWM): 180-190 stuck.Dow (DIA): 34,000 in the Dow now pivotal.Nasdaq (QQQ): 370 target hit proceeded by some selling; 360 support.Regional Banks (KRE): 41.00 area the 50-DMA.Semiconductors (SMH): 150 now major support.Transportation (IYT): 237 area the 23-month moving average.Biotechnology (IBB): 121-135 range.Retail (XRT): 62 support and, if clears back over 63, optimism returns.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

The May Housing Starts and Permits released this past Tuesday was quite eye-popping, despite riding the back of a disappointing market drop in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq.

How so? If you think about it, mortgage rates are averaging a painful 7%+. And still demand for homes rebounded, with 1.63 million housing starts last month, far above the 1.39 million economists were expecting.

A Bullish Reversal for the Housing Sector?

Quite possibly. If anything, Tuesday’s data gave us yet another indication that the US economy is robust, despite the uncertainties that continue to plague it. If you can remember, housing was the first to get hit once the Fed began tightening. So is it now the first to bottom?

Housing Is a Leading Indicator (On the Fundamental Side)

Another plus is that the increase in demand for homes, especially new ones, indicates more spending. For new homes, it indicates demand for construction labor and materials. It also points to more spending across Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors; basically, all the things that make a house a “home.” In other words, home spending begets even more spending for home stuff. 

Time to Jump Into Homebuilder Stocks?

So, to sum it all up…

Housing data is showing signs of recovery amid high mortgage rates.10-year Treasuries are holding steady.The Fed had set expectations for two more rate hikes before the end of the year.Homeowners whose property values didn’t sink as low as expected during the housing recession are helping keep afloat consumer spending (which may be a factor keeping the economy from falling into a recession).

Time to jump into homebuilders? Let’s look at the charts for four of the biggest homebuilder stocks in the sector: DR Horton, Inc (DHI), Toll Brothers, Inc (TOL), PulteGroup, Inc (PHM), and Lennar Corporation (LEN).

Analyzing on a Comparative Basis

First, let’s take a look at all four charts stacked together using StockChartsACP.

CHART 1: DHI, TOL, PHM, AND LEN STACKED SIDE BY SIDE. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages illustrate the strength of each stock’s upward advance on a comparative scale.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For illustrative purposes only.

At a glance, all four stocks are trending upward.

All three moving averages—the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA—appear (mostly) fully extended.Momentum-wise, you can see that PHM and TOL appear the strongest, having barely traded below the 50-day SMA. LEN, on the other hand, appears to be the laggard among the four, having tangled with the 50-day SMA more frequently than the rest of the group.

To explore the different layouts in StockChartsACP, check out this video.

Looking at the four homebuilders from a quarterly perspective, PerfCharts provides a clearer picture of their comparative performance.

CHART 2: A 3-MONTH COMPARATIVE LOOK AT PERFORMANCE USING PERFCHARTS. PHM is the clear leader, with TOL, DHI, and LEN pacing behind (and in that order).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Now you can more clearly assess the group’s performance leadership, and if you were to look at each stock’s three-month StockCharts Technical Rank Score (SCTR) score, it would align with the PerfChart reading, with PHM leading the pack and LEN straggling behind.

More specifically, the SCTR scores (at the time of writing) are as follows: PHM 97.8, TOL 95.8, DHI 93, and LEN 92.5.

Are These Stocks “Toppy” or Is There Room for More Upside?

When you’re buying an uptrending stock, you’re assuming the stock is still relatively undervalued, meaning there’s room for more upside. But still, you probably want to avoid entering a position bound for a sizable “dip.”

So, to figure out which of these stocks might be overbought and possibly topping, let’s take a look at each chart, pull up a Stochastic Oscillator to see if any occupy the overbought range, and take a look at the stocks’ momentum profile, checking buying pressure against selling pressure using the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). 

Let’s look at each chart, note a few characteristics unique to each stock, and then do an overall assessment after looking at all four.

DHI: Sellers Tip Their Hand

CHART 3: DAILY CHART OF DHI. What sticks out is the bearish divergence between price and the CMF and that money flow has crossed below the zero line.Chart source: StockCharts.com (click on chart for live version). For illustrative purposes only.

According to the Stochastic Oscillator, DHI is clearly in overbought territory.Notice the bearish divergence between the trend and the CMF, now falling below the zero line into negative territory. This indicates selling pressure amid DHI’s flight to higher valuations.

TOL May Be Topping, But Not as Badly as DHI

CHART 4: DAILY CHART OF TOL. Price appears to be advancing with strong momentum, and, unlike the other three charts in the group, the divergence between price and money flow appears to be relatively near-term.Chart source: StockCharts.com (click on chart for live version). For illustrative purposes only.

TOL is also giving us an overbought stochastic reading.While the CMF shows a sharp divergence in the near-term (longer-term divergence is barely visible), money flow crossed over to negative territory.

PHM: The Outperformer of the Pack Seems Bound for a Pullback

CHART 5: DAILY CHART OF PHM. Despite leading the other three in terms of performance, PHM’s advance seems overdue for a pullback.Chart source: StockCharts.com (click chart for live version). For illustrative purposes only.

Remember that PHM is the strongest performer among the group (at least over the last quarter). You can clearly see price advancing strongly, its forward momentum stretching both 50-day and 200-day moving averages into full sail.Also notice the clear divergence between price and money flow for the past four months.

LEN the Laggard

CHART 6: DAILY CHART OF LEN. Perhaps more than the other three stocks in the group, LEN appears to be losing steam based on its performance relative to its 50-day SMA and negative CMF reading.Chart source: StockCharts.com (click chart for live version). For illustrative purposes only.

LEN’s performance relative to the group has been the weakest, at least over the last quarter.Similar to DHI, LEN is also overbought, exhibiting longer-term price divergence, and has fallen into negative CMF territory.

After looking over the four homebuilders, how do you trade them?

How to Trade the Homebuilders

Your best bet here is to sit and wait. All four stocks—DHI, TOL, PHM, and LEN—are in record-high territory (aka, all-time highs). Although all four are trending rather strongly, it’s hard to look past the likelihood that they’re poised for a breather.

What this means is that it’s best to wait for a pullback. Both the stochastic and CMF readings indicate that a dip is highly likely in the near term, as buying pressure appears to be dwindling even as momentum continues to push prices upward.

Once the stocks have topped, it will be easier to set clear buy levels (such as using Fib retracements to measure potential buy zones). But until then, look to swing levels and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for potential support.

The Bottom Line

Despite a challenging economic climate and high mortgage rates, the US housing market is showing encouraging signs of recovery. Major homebuilder stocks like DHI, TOL, PHM, and LEN are trending upwards, indicating a bullish reversal in the sector. However, you might want to sit and wait for a possible near-term pullback before jumping in. All four are showing overbought conditions and dwindling buying pressure. But once a relative top is in place, it will be easier to target your potential buy points.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.