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White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Sunday defended President Biden’s controversial decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine. 

‘This is about keeping Ukraine in the fight. You were just there. You talked to President Zelenskyy about the counteroffensive, and in some ways, it’s not going as fast as he would like,’ Kirby told host Martha Raddatz during an appearance on ABC’s ‘This Week.’ ‘They are using artillery at a very accelerating rate, Martha, many thousands of rounds per day. This is literally a gunfight in – all along, from the Donbas, all the way down toward Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. And so, they’re running out of inventory.’

‘We are trying to ramp up our production of the kind of artillery shells that they’re using most. But that production is still not where we wanted it to be,’ Kirby added. ‘So, we’re going to see these additional artillery shells that have cluster bomblets in them to help bridge the gap as we ramp up production of normal 155 artillery shells.’ 

The munitions – which detonate in the air and release scores of smaller bomblets – are seen by the U.S. as a way to get Kyiv critically needed ammunition to help bolster its offensive and push through Russian front lines. U.S. leaders debated the thorny issue for months, before Biden made the final decision last week. 

The decision comes on the eve of the NATO summit in Lithuania, where Biden is likely to face questions from allies on why the U.S. would send a weapon into Ukraine that more than two-thirds of alliance members have banned because it has a track record for causing many civilian casualties.

‘It took me a while to be convinced to do it,’ Biden told CNN  in an interview that aired Sunday morning. He added that he ultimately took the Defense Department’s recommendation to provide the munitions and discussed the matter with allies and lawmakers on the Hill. He said ‘the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition’ and the cluster bombs will provide a temporary fix to help stop Russian tanks.

On Sunday, Kirby further argued the U.S. is sending Ukraine ‘cluster munitions because we don’t have enough of the kind of munitions they need.’ 

‘I want to ask you why the U.S. has never banned them before. They’re obviously a threat to civilians if they don’t explode. Why is the U.S. not banning them, period?’ Raddatz asked. 

‘We are very mindful of the concerns about civilian casualties and unexploded ordnance being picked up by civilians or children and being hurt. Of course, we’re mindful of that,’ Kirby responded. ‘And we’re going to focus with Ukraine with demining efforts. In fact, we’re doing it right now, and we will when war conditions permit. But these munitions do provide a useful battlefield capability.’

Kirby added that Russia is also using cluster munitions, but ‘in an aggressive war on another country, and indiscriminately killing civilians,’ while Ukrainians will ‘be using them to defend their own territory, hitting Russian positions.’

‘And I think we can all agree that more civilians have been and will continue to be killed by Russian forces – with whether it’s cluster munitions, drones, missile attacks or just frontal assault – than will likely be hurt by the use of these cluster munitions fired at Russian positions inside Ukrainian territory,’ he added.

Kirby said Biden wants to focus now on Ukraine winning the war against Russia before the Kyiv government achieves NATO membership. Granting Ukraine membership now, Kirby warned, would mean ‘NATO is at war with Russia,’ noting that the U.S. and its allies are aiming to give Ukraine space to work on political and economic reforms, as well as good governance.

Looking ahead to Biden’s trip to Vilnius, Kirby anticipated, ‘You’re also going to see from all the allies a concerted, unified approach to making it clear that NATO is eventually going to be in Ukraine’s future, and that in between the time of the war ending and that happening, that the allies will continue to help Ukraine defend itself.’

Raddatz also pressed the National Security Council spokesman on reports that some former senior U.S. officials affiliated with the Council on Foreign Relations apparently met with Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, in April. Kirby contended that national security adviser Jake Sullivan was not involved and did not participate in those meetings. 

‘The president is being clear that we will have no discussions with Russia about negotiating an end to this war without Ukraine at the table,’ Kirby said. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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Republican 2024 presidential hopeful Chris Christie slammed former President Donald Trump’s White House run as a way to ‘undo’ his 2020 defeat, and doubled down on his support of FBI Director Christopher Wray. 

‘This is not somebody who’s fighting for the American people and their future,’ Christie told Shannon Bream, host of ‘Fox News Sunday,’ regarding Trump’s 2024 run. ‘This is all about his ego. What he cares about the most is trying to undo the loss he had to Joe Biden in 2020.’

‘He’s a three time loser, having lost in 2018 – the House of Representatives – lost the White House and the Senate in 2020. And 2022, he wound up losing two more governorships, another seat in the Senate, and we barely won the House by five votes… So he’s in this for himself and himself only, and not in it for the American people,’ Christie claimed.

Bream questioned Christie on a recent poll finding the majority of Republican voters would not consider voting for the former New Jersey governor and asked if he threw his hat in the ring ‘simply as a spoiler for President Trump.’ who is the current front-runner among 2024 GOP candidates.

‘We’re in this to win. And, by the way, we’ll have some announcements this week… that there is a broad and wide demand for our candidacy,’ Christie responded. 

Bream also pressed Christie on his support of FBI Director Wray, who many Republicans have said needs to be fired or have vowed to oust him if they win the presidency. Christie said last month on CNN that he would keep Wray in his administration if elected president and had recommended Wray to Trump as FBI director in 2017.

Wray is slated to appear before the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, and he is expected to face questions from Republican critics who say the FBI director politically weaponized the bureau against churches, parents and political opponents of the Biden administration. Whistleblowers have also accused the FBI of mishandling the criminal investigation into Hunter Biden. 

‘Look, all those problems happened, Shannon, during the Jim Comey era, and Christopher Wray has come in and fired every person that was in the Comey leadership team in the FBI,’ Christie responded. Wray served as Christie’s attorney during the former governor’s ‘Bridgegate’ scandal in 2013. 

‘These whistleblowers have come out because the atmosphere has allowed it to happen now, not during the Comey era, not during the Loretta Lynch era when she was attorney general,’ Christie continued. ‘And they weren’t charging Hillary Clinton, which is what they should have done. You know, the fact is that these other folks in the race, they just are looking for a scapegoat. They want to blame anybody. Well, I will tell them who to blame. Blame Joe Biden, and Merrick Garland, who have not provided the type of leadership in the country or at the Justice Department that you need.’

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President Biden’s administration doesn’t deserve any blame for the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., said.

Lee made the statement during a Sunday appearance on CNN, telling host Jake Tapper that the blame largely rests with former President Donald Trump.

‘I know you supported the goal of leaving Afghanistan, but do you believe President Biden deserves some blame for the way that that withdrawal spiraled out of control?’ Tapper asked.

‘I don’t believe the administration deserves any blame for this,’ Lee responded. ‘We have to remember that Donald Trump made this agreement with the Taliban.’

‘Secondly, the Trump administration literally gutted our State Department and our diplomatic corps,’ Lee continued. ‘I believe that the State Department and those that were involved in this, you know, end of the Afghanistan war – which should have happened before then, I believe – did the best they could. Having said that, it wasn’t as smooth as we would have liked to have seen it.’

Lee’s comments come more than a week after the State Department published a formal evaluation of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

The report found that both Trump and Biden had ‘insufficient senior-level consideration’ of what could go wrong during a withdrawal. The State Department conducted more than 150 interviews over a 90-day period to compile the report, which it released to the public June 30.

‘The decisions of both President Trump and President Biden to end the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan had serious consequences for the viability of the Afghan government and its security,’ the report stated. ‘Those decisions are beyond the scope of this review, but the AAR team found that during both administrations there was insufficient senior-level consideration of worst-case scenarios and how quickly those might follow.’

The U.S. withdrawal saw Afghan government forces collapse almost immediately against the Taliban, and 13 U.S. service members were killed in a suicide bombing while defending the evacuation at the Kabul airport.

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New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, received a chorus of boos at a concert on his home turf Saturday night.

Brian Kirk, the lead singer of Brian Kirk & the Jirks, invited Murphy onstage, but the moment quickly soured at the Red Rock Tap + Grill in Monmouth County, just two miles from the governor’s waterfront mansion.

Video posted on Twitter by Matt Rooney, the founder and editor-in-chief of SaveJersey.com, showed Murphy hugging the band members while the crowd loudly booed.

Kirk broke his embrace of Murphy to scold fans.

‘Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, what did I tell you guys?’ Kirk said, pointing his finger at the crowd.

‘Hey, listen to me,’ he continued. ‘Listen to me, he didn’t want to hear that. He’s a buddy of mine. This is not about politics. He’s a friend of mine. Don’t do that. Out of respect for my friend, don’t do that.’ 

Murphy’s administration imposed multiple restrictions on breweries last year, including the limitation of food distribution and the number of private events they can host on-site. A bipartisan bill that passed both the state Assembly and Senate last month to lift the restrictions has been sitting on Murphy’s desk, but he has yet to signal whether he will sign it.

The New Jersey Brewers Association has expressed fears that the continued regulations will force breweries out of business or across state lines.

The website for the Red Rock bar, where Murphy was booed, currently asks for customers’ patience due to being short-staffed.

‘Thank you for your patience,’ it reads. ‘Our kitchen is short-staffed due to an unprecedented labor shortage in the service industry.’

Murphy also came under fire last week after signing a bill to give a massive tax break to Danish offshore wind developer Orsted for the first of two energy projects that it’s planning for the waters off the Jersey Shore.

Neither the company nor Democrat lawmakers listed the value of the tax break, but a Republican state senator, Edward Durr, put it at nearly $1 billion.

The bill signing came one day after Orsted’s Ocean Wind I project received clearance from the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to begin construction on a wind farm 13 to 15 miles off the coast of Atlantic City and Ocean City.

Kirk and Murphy’s office did not respond to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Former Tennessee lawmaker Roy B. Herron has died after suffering injuries related to a jet ski accident this month. He was 69. 

Herron had decades of public service, including terms in the state House of Representatives, Senate and as chairman of the Tennessee Democratic Party. He was also a candidate for governor in 2010.

FOX 17 reports that Herron was hospitalized after a jet ski accident on Kentucky Lake on July 1.

Many of Herron’s family members and former colleagues have paid tribute in his honor.

‘Saddened by the death of former colleague in Tennessee General Assembly, Roy Herron,’ Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Tenn., tweeted. ‘Roy succumbed to injuries from jet ski accident last weekend apparently caused by negligence of another. He was bright, diligent, and honest. A politician destined for greatness.’

Tennessee Senate Minority Leader Raumesh Akbari called the late Herron a ‘dedicated and joyful warrior for the causes he held dear.’

‘Behind that warm smile, he was as tenacious as they come and never better than when he was fighting for public schools, affordable healthcare and working families.’

Tennessee House Republican Caucus Chairman Jeremy Faison said Herron was ‘the kind of guy that you couldn’t help but like.’

‘He came to my office on many occasions to lobby or debate and we would end up just sharing stories about life,’ Faison wrote, adding, ‘TN lost a true servant.’

Memphis mayoral candidate Van Turner extended his condolences to Herron’s family.

‘Senator Herron was truly a statesman and public servant and will be missed by us all,’ Turner wrote.

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President Biden sat down for a recent interview in which he said the United States is low on 155 mm artillery ammunition rounds, sparking outrage and questions of competency from conservatives on social media.

During the interview, which aired Sunday morning, Biden defended his administration for sending cluster munitions to Ukraine as a ‘transition period’ until more munitions are produced.

‘This is a war relating to munitions. And they’re running out of that ammunition, and we’re low on it,’ Biden told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. ‘And so, what I finally did, I took the recommendation of the Defense Department to – not permanently – but to allow for this transition period while we get more 155 weapons, these shells, for the Ukrainians.’

Reactions on social media ranged from confused to outrage as conservative pundits and experts alike wondered why Biden was announcing the U.S. shortage during a nationally televised interview that would be seen by adversaries.

‘Love when the president of America goes on CNN to tell everyone we’re low on ammo,’ remarked political operative Logan Dobson.
 

‘Joe Biden broadcasting to the world that the US is low on 155mm shells,’ conservative communicator Steve Guest tweeted. ‘Moron. Does Biden not care that our adversaries in China are listening?’

‘In CNN interview, President Biden is not particularly clear but seems to be saying US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine because we are running out of 155mm artillery ammunition to send them,’ wrote Byron York of the Washington Examiner. ‘Seems obvious this is affecting US readiness to defend itself.’

A White House official appeared to walk back Biden’s comment that the United States is running out of ammunition when asked to comment on criticism in response to Biden’s interview on CNN.

‘The military has specific requirements for the numbers of weapons systems and ammunition we maintain in our reserves in case of contingencies or military conflict,’ a White House official said in an email to Fox News Digital. ‘Everything we send to Ukraine is in excess of that. So, the U.S. is not running out of ammunition ourselves.’

‘Joe Biden wasn’t supposed to say the quiet part out loud: ‘We’ve run out of ammunition.’ But now that the cat’s out of the bag, one must ask whether continued support of Ukraine’s military is even feasible as the conflict rages on,’ political commentator Ian Miles Cheong remarked.

‘The point of the proxy war was to weaken Russia,’ tech entrepreneur David Sacks tweeted. ‘But the U.S. ran out of ammo first. So who’s weakening whom?’

Biden’s opponent in the Democrat presidential race, Robert Kennedy Jr., slammed Biden on Twitter on Saturday after he gave his administration the green light to send cluster munitions to Ukraine.

‘Last year, WH Press Secretary Jen Psaki called the use of cluster bombs a ‘war crime.’ Now President Biden plans to send them to Ukraine. Stop the ceaseless escalation! It is time for peace,’ Kennedy wrote in a tweet.

‘Biden was opposed to cluster bombs in 1982 as well, when he opposed their sale to Israel,’ Kennedy, who entered the White House race in April, added in a separate tweet. ‘What happened to his conscience?’

The White House official also defended the administration green-lighting cluster munitions for Ukraine, saying they wanted to make sure Ukraine is not ‘left defenseless.’

‘We are authorizing cluster munitions to ensure that Ukraine is not left defenseless while we wait for our own domestic production of ammunition to ramp up substantially, which we are in the process of doing as are our allies and partners,’ the official added. ‘These cluster munitions are a bridge as we significantly increase production of ammunition over the coming months – and will have much higher production levels soon.’

Fox News’ Kyle Morris contributed to this report.

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Every quarterly earnings season, we hear the same thing on CNBC and other media outlets. “Earnings are going to be rough this quarter.” Blah, blah, blah. After decades of technical, fundamental, and historical research, I’ve concluded that the games on Wall Street are designed to thoroughly confuse the individual investor. And it’s been my mission for the past several years as Chief Market Strategist at EarningsBeats.com to separate the truth from the rhetoric. The history of the stock market shows quite clearly that most public companies beat earnings expectations. Don’t believe me? Well, here’s a bit of research by Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, showing the percentage of earnings beats vs. earnings misses by quarter over the past 35ish years:

Throughout the 21st century, the percentage of companies that have BEATEN consensus earnings estimates is greater than 80%. Greater than 80%!!! But, for some reason, we’re always worried about earnings as we approach the start of earnings season. While Wall Street firms send their finest analysts (I call them “influencers”) out into the world to spread all the bad earnings news we’re about to hear, they’re actually buying stocks hand over fist.

Consider how the S&P 500 has traded throughout each calendar quarter since 1950. I’ve broken down ANNUALIZED performance between the first half of each calendar quarter and the second half:

Q1 (January 1-February 15): +12.49%Q1 (February 16-March 31): +4.80%Q2 (April 1-May 15): +13.25%Q2 (May 16-June 30): +1.15%Q3 (July 1-August 15): +10.02%Q3 (August 16-September 30): -4.88%Q4 (October 1-November 15): +16.24%Q4 (November 16-December 31): +16.97%

I believe we can make a few observations after studying this performance data:

While everyone is worrying about earnings during the first half of calendar quarters, the stock market’s overwhelming tendency is to RISE.After the strong earnings are realized, the stock market’s tendency is to struggle.Q4 doesn’t matter. The stock market just goes up. The two BEST half-quarter performances are found in Q4.Q3 is the worst calendar quarter of the year BY FAR. We’re in Q3, so we should all lower our expectations.

Let me break down the S&P 500 annualized performance by first half of ALL calendar quarters vs. second half of ALL calendar quarters:

First half of calendar quarters: +13.00%Second half of calendar quarters: +4.51%

The big Wall Street firms WANT us to worry about earnings and sell so they can line their pockets as prices rise. Then, just after we realize that earnings are solid and start buying, those big Wall Street firms are happily taking profits. Then rinse and repeat. There are so many instances of this. It’s why we all need to be aware of history and to understand how we are manipulated regularly.

If you want to learn more about the ideosyncrasies of stock market timing, I invite you to join our rapidly-growing community of EarningsBeats Digest subscribers. Subscription is completely free and there is no credit card required. And when you sign up, I’ll immediately ship you our e-book, “Money Flows” as a valuable BONUS! CLICK HERE to get your free subscription started and check out some mind-boggling stats!

Happy trading!

Tom

The AI rally looks set to take a breather. But the rally in oil may just be getting started.

All bets are off for the stock market when the Fed meets later in July. But, until then, stocks retain an upward bias, albeit one with the potential for bumpiness and a likelihood for selectivity. That’s because the recent buzz on AI is starting to fade.

On the other hand, as I noted last week, and further detail below, the oil service sector is suddenly a money magnet.

Bonds Yields Look Top Heavy

At first glance, the first week of the most bullish month of the year for stocks was a bust, as the Fed revived the specter of higher interest rates and the ADP private employment data spooked bond traders, raising yields above the bearish 4% point. This bearish posture in bonds persisted despite a weaker-than-expected payroll report and the usual soft data from ISM and related reports.

Yet even as the bond bears growl, the U.S. Ten Year Note yield price chart has the look of a potential top, while the market’s breadth seems to have survived yet another scare.

Note the yield closed above the upper Bollinger Band, which means it is overextended. The RSI is also near 70, signaling an overbought condition and confirming that a reversal is in order. In addition, since all price gaps are eventually filled, such as the one between 3.95% and 4% in this chart, we may see TNX retrace its steps back to 3.95% or even to the 20-day moving average. If that happens, I would expect one last move up by stocks before the Fed meets on 7/25-26.

Still, there are rising expectations of a 25-basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate after the Fed’s next FOMC meeting (7/25-26). If the central bank does raise rates, the Fed Funds target rate would likely be between 5.25% and 5.5%.

That means that the next round of CPI and PPI numbers are likely to be market movers, since a move above or below expectations could affect the Fed’s decision. Of course, if these inflation numbers follow last month’s cooling trend, the bulls are likely to be further pleasantly surprised.

Oil Service Delivers a Gusher as Supply Realities Solidify

Let’s take a walk down memory lane. In my Market Summary dated 5/28/23, titled “Never Short a Dull Market“, I wrote the following: “There’s an old adage of Wall Street, which says: ‘never short a dull market.’ And while AI is getting all the press these days, the oil market is about as dull as it gets. This, of course, brings the energy sector to the top of my contrarian alert list.

“This is not to say that I’m buying oil-related assets with both hands. It just means that, at this point, it makes more sense to look at energy as a value asset which is oversold and ripe for a move up whenever the right set of variables required to deliver such a move line up just right.  In the current world, the variables could line up just right as early as today.”

The variables have lined up.

Fast forwarding; last week in this space I wrote: “some portfolio managers use the cover of window dressing as a stealthy way to put money to work in sectors that offer value. As a result, while everyone is looking at the hot sectors, such as AI, it pays to look at sectors that have underperformed in the first half.  One of them is oil service.” 

I then added: “the Van Eck Vectors Oil Service ETF (OIH), has crossed above its 200-day moving average, marking what looks to be the start of a bullish reversal.”

As a result, I wasn’t surprised at the breakout in the sector. But I was impressed by its magnitude, as OIH rallied a nifty 6.38% on 7/7/23 on big volume. Moreover, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator (ADI) moved decidedly higher, a sign that short sellers are stampeding out of the sector. Even more encouraging is the improvement in On Balance Volume (OBV), signaling that buyers are coming in.

The key to whether this trend lasts is what happens to oil supplies over the next few weeks to months. If current trends continue, they will be squeezed as long as OPEC and Russia stick to their promised cuts in production. In addition, U.S. shale producers have been steadily decreasing their own production, setting up the potential for higher or stable prices even if demand remains lower than average. The latest U.S. crude supplies from the Energy Information Agency paint a picture of a stable market for current demand with decreasing oil production and average storage levels.

So why are oil service stocks rising? The short answer is that, as production is being reduced, exploration is rising, especially in Latin America and Africa. According to industry insiders, this is a long term “super cycle” type event. This means that oil service stocks are in the driver’s seat for a potential earnings winning streak. 

Incidentally, if you’re looking for more in-depth actionable data on oil service stocks, I have recently added several oil related stocks to my model portfolio. You can have a look with a FREE trial to my service here. And for a comprehensive analysis on the state of the oil market, grab a copy of this exclusive report here.

NYAD Again Survives the Sellers’ Wrath; Sellers Appear in NDX and SPX

Despite the aggressive midweek selling spree, the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) remained in an uptrend as it held above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. This remains encouraging in the short term. The outlook for stocks would be better, though, if NYAD made a new high fairly soon.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) looks set for some sort of pullback as AI stocks are losing their luster. ADI and OBV have rolled over here, which means sellers and short sellers are starting to take control.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is also weakening. Both ADI and OBV are rolling over.

VIX Remains Range-Bound

After its recent new lows, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is poised to rise, as July often marks a bottom. The key is whether it can rise above the 15 level convincingly.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity Remains Stable

Liquidity remains encouraging, although it’s not wholly bullish. The Eurodollar Index (XED) remains rangebound, which is relatively bullish. A move below 94 would be very bearish. A move above 95 will be a very bullish development. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks. 

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Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

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Americans weighed in on whether President Biden was living up to his demand for ‘honor and decency’ in the White House following the discovery of cocaine in the West Wing and after activists went topless on the South Lawn.

‘Nah, cocaine, cocaine in the White House, that never happens,’ one man told Fox News.

Biden tweeted during the 2020 presidential election that ‘we need to restore honor and decency to the White House.’ Meanwhile, over the weekend, cocaine was found in a part of the White House that visitors can’t access unless they’re receiving a tour from staff.

Jim said he thinks Biden is ‘making every attempt possible’ to bring decency to the White House.

‘As to the cocaine, it could’ve come out of any guests pocket going in,’ he said. ‘I haven’t seen any video that shows it came from an employee or any family members.’

In June, Biden faced criticism after transgender activists went topless at a White House Pride Month event. The administration later banned one, Rose Montoya, and called the incident ‘inappropriate and disrespectful.’

IS BIDEN UPHOLDING DECENCY TO THE WHITE HOUSE?

Dominique said he thinks Biden respects the White House but that he ‘lost a backbone’ in doing so.

‘I think he needs to, you know, make a little bit more noise,’ he added.

‘For my country, I do not like Biden as the president,’ said Huncho.

Ashli said she doesn’t think Biden is upholding decency.

‘He’s still not fighting for what’s right at the moment,’ she said.

Kenneth disagreed. He said the president is upholding decency by staying away from controversies like those involving his son, Hunter Biden.

‘He hasn’t gotten himself involved personally in the hearings for his kid,’ he said.

‘Compared to people that have been in the office before, passing by flying colors,’ said Sarah.

Mary said that even though Biden has room for improvement, he’s still a step up from former President Trump.

‘Compared to the previous president, he holds a level of professionalism when he addresses others,’ she said. ‘He’s mindful about his word choice and careful about how others can perceive his actions.’

Mark agreed, saying that it’s a challenging feat for the president.

‘I think that it can be tempting when members of Congress are insulting one another even on the floor of Congress,’ he said.

Ramiro Vargas contributed to the accompanying video.

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Whether you’re contemplating buying or selling a house these days, it’s likely you’re a baby boomer — or are financially supported by one.

At $436,800, the median home sale price in the U.S. remains significantly higher than the $329,000 average price seen in the quarter just before the late winter 2020 period, when the Covid-19 pandemic struck.

And it continues to inch higher: The monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller housing market index showed relative price increases for February, March and April.

“The ongoing recovery in home prices is broadly based,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a release. All 20 major metro markets logged monthly price gains in April, and 12 markets showed price acceleration, the report found.

With affordability at near-record lows and inventory still very limited, many buyers, especially first timers, will continue to find the market challenging for the foreseeable future, experts say.

Mortgage interest rates now hover around 7%. As a result, the median monthly payment (principal and interest) a home buyer can now expect to pay is nearly $2,000, according to the National Association of Realtors — almost double the 2020 figure.

Buyers need to earn more money, too. An income of about $95,000 per year is needed to qualify for a 30-year mortgage with a 20% down payment (the NAR’s calculations are based on a slightly lower estimate of the current median home value).

‘There will be no return to the 3% rates we had during the pandemic,’ Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement Thursday. ‘Homebuyers have had to accept the ‘new normal’ of rates around 6.5% or even a little higher.’ 

Who is driving the current market rebound?

To a large degree, it’s all-cash buyers. These individuals are able to sidestep mortgage rates entirely and purchase a home outright at cost.

Last month, the real estate data group Redfin reported the share of all-cash purchases had increased to one-third of the entire U.S. housing market, the highest level since 2014.

While the demographics of these buyers may be mixed, there is overwhelming evidence that some baby boomers are an economic force behind these cash purchases, experts say.

‘Some cash sales are coming from millennials, but they may be borrowing from ‘the bank of mom and dad’ or a relative,’ said Taylor Marr, Redfin deputy chief economist.

Marr added that the homeownership rate of Generation Z adults (age 18 to 27) has already surpassed the rate of Generation X (age 44 to 59) who owned homes when they were still in their 20s, a phenomenon also attributable to an older generation stepping in to help their kids become homeowners.

Some of these boomers have benefited from the skyrocketing values of their homes, which has led to “historically high levels of housing wealth,” Bright’s Sturtevant said in a follow-up interview.

“It’s not like most people are emptying their checking accounts,” Sturtevant said. “They’re rolling over their housing wealth.’

‘Are there millionaires and the 1%? Yes. But it really has trickled down to the middle class,” Sturtevant said.

Whether a baby boomer is in the buyer’s market looking to downsize or supporting a dependent, it is this group that has allowed the housing market to remain buoyant. The National Association of Realtors said in March that baby boomers now make up 39% of home buyers — the most of any generation — and an increase from 29% last year.

“Baby boomers have the upper hand in the home-buying market,” Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, said in a statement. “The majority of them are repeat buyers who have housing equity to propel them into their dream home — be it a place to enjoy retirement or a home near friends and family. They are living healthier and longer and making housing trades later in life.”

Suburbs rule

As with anything housing-related, the health of the market also depends on location. The monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller housing market index for April showed that Miami, Chicago and Atlanta were seeing the highest year-over-year gains among 20 large cities. Overall, 17 of the 20 cities reported lower prices in April on a 12-month basis, with Boston, San Francisco and Cleveland showing slight increases of 0.1%, 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively.

There’s also variation by density, with suburbs booming thanks to greater employment demand for individuals in their prime earning years, like millennials, who are also forming households and increasingly working from home.

New census data shows the percentage of U.S. workers who did their jobs from home increased from 5.7% of workers in 2019 (roughly 9 million people) to 17.9% in 2021 (about 27.6 million people) — and that about half of the work-from-home cohort is now between the ages of 25 and 44.

That’s put urban-core areas at something of a disadvantage, Sturtevant said.

‘As many people continue working from home, close commutes are not drawing people back into cities,’ she said, adding: ‘Cities are not back, and may never be back in terms of attracting the same level of buyers.’

The revival of the suburbs also reveals how millennials, now America’s largest overall demographic, have the same social preferences as their parents now that they’ve entered their child-rearing years.

‘Back in 2018 or 2019, you would have said millennials would never move to the suburbs; it was all about back to the city, walkable neighborhoods, amenities,’ Marr said, adding: ‘But now that they’re starting families and severing ties with the commute, there’s less of a priority to have proximity to a city center. People are now valuing space, a home office, a yard.

‘So I think the typical lifecycle of housing, where you buy or rent a condo or town home, then once you start growing a family, you move up to a larger space in suburbs — that’s consistent with every generation across ages.’

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