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Natural gas prices are down, but temperatures are up and so are many households’ utility bills. Across the country, programs for helping low-income residents cover their energy costs — designed decades ago with winter heating in mind — are struggling to meet higher summertime demand.

In Texas, which has been baking under a record-breaking heat wave for more than a month, air conditioners are running at full blast, raising costs for electricity generation that often get passed down to customers. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the state’s utility grid, has seen surging demand break the system’s maximum load records 10 times within the past five weeks, peaking at about 83,000 gigawatts on Tuesday.

“We’re hot every summer,” said Bobby Deike, executive director of the Community Council of South Central Texas. “I think what was somewhat of a difference this year is it’s been much hotter earlier.”

The group has already distributed an average of $2,180 per household to help low-income residents cover energy costs this fiscal year, Deike said. That’s more than double its roughly $969 average in 2021, though the uptick came after the state tightened its aid criteria, delivering larger payments to the neediest Texans.

A mild winter in many parts of the U.S. helped boost this year’s supplies of natural gas, whose prices have fallen about 60% since last summer. But high electricity demand in recent weeks, and renewables’ limited ability to fill in the gap, have blunted those savings.

That is partly because heat waves often create still atmospheres that limit how much energy wind turbines can contribute to the grid, said Mohammed Hamdaoui, vice president of renewables and power at the research firm Rystad Energy. Solar is typically less effective under extreme heat, too: When the sun goes down, “people still need to run their ACs, because the temperature is still high and demand is still high,” he said.

Families will have less money to spend in the fall on clothes for children because they’re paying off their electric bill.

NEADA executive director MARK WOLFE

“This is a really new economic problem,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which represents state directors who manage federal aid dollars for home energy costs.

NEADA estimated earlier this month that U.S. consumers’ utility bills would be nearly 12% higher this summer than last, reaching an average of $578, up from $517. Bills are set to be even steeper in the West and South Central region that includes Texas, where users are expected to pay an average of $706 between June and August, up from $642 last year.

In many cases, Wolfe warned, “families will have less money to spend in the fall on clothes for children because they’re paying off their electric bill. Up to recently, that wasn’t the case.”

While temperatures typically peak in much of the U.S. in June and July, scientists who study heat waves say climate change has been making those periods more frequent and longer since the 1960s. About 84 million people are now under heat advisories across the country, and parts of California, Oregon and Idaho that were previously untouched by the ongoing heat wave, are now included in the alerts.

Relief organizations in some states that aren’t used to widespread air-conditioning use are now grappling with extended periods of high demand. At Denver-based Energy Outreach Colorado, applications for bill payment assistance have jumped nearly 30% from the same time last year.

“It’s only July and we’re already seeing almost 2,000 people calling every week, which is very unusual,” said Denise Stepto, chief communications officer.

Because many agencies traditionally see their LIHEAP programs as offering seasonal relief for home heating costs in colder months, they often pare back aid distribution during the summer. But recent heat extremes have pushed some of the groups to transition to year-round operations.

In 2021, Washington state used resources from the bipartisan CARES Act to bolster its home energy assistance fund by $30 million, according to Brian Sarensen, a program manager at the state’s commerce department who manages the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, aid. That boost allowed state officials to help more than 100,000 residents a year with utility bills and installing new air conditioners, up from 65,000 households before the influx.

But the extra money has dried up, leaving Sarensen to weigh tough decisions about how best to allocate funds this year.

“We may be sacrificing how much heating assistance we give in the winter to hold over for the summer,” he said. “But at the same time, then you’re thinking: Am I leaving somebody to freeze to death? It’s the Catch-22 of trying to provide everything to everybody that needs it, and just not having enough money to do so.

We may be sacrificing how much heating assistance we give in the winter to hold over for the summer.

Washington State LIHEAP director Brian Sarensen

“We need to rethink the LIHEAP allocation formula,” he said.

The program, which is run from the Department of Health and Human Services, was created after the 1970s oil crisis to help Americans heat their homes — long before the effects of climate change were widely appreciated. Since then, there has been a near constant push and pull among federal officials, state governments and advocates over how to portion out a finite pool of relief money.

LIHEAP is funded with $6.1 billion through the end of September, and the House Appropriations Committee recently approved $4.1 billion in funding for 2024. Administrators had asked for $9 billion.

Unlike safety-net programs like Medicaid or food stamps, LIHEAP doesn’t guarantee payments to all eligible applicants, Wolfe said. If more qualified residents apply for help than the program can support, funding simply runs out even if demand hasn’t been met.

“There’s not enough money to do a year-round program” in states that increasingly need one, he said, despite extreme temperatures in more places during both seasons. He added that only 19 states and Washington, D.C., ban utility shutoffs during the summer, while more than 40 ban them during winter.

LIHEAP-funded agencies in several states told NBC News they began to cap assistance this spring to maintain summer reserves. Some in areas that saw warm winters said that has helped them stretch their resources further.

In Texas, state documents show the maximum cooling allotment for low-income families was raised to $12,300 in 2022, up from $8,200, and will remain at that level for the next fiscal year. That is partly due to the record $284 million in federal home-energy assistance funding the state received from the American Rescue Plan, which Democrats passed along party lines in 2021.

Overall, though, Wolfe said federal policies governing LIHEAP “haven’t caught up with reality” as climate change reshapes vulnerable residents’ needs.

“This is all preventable,” he said.

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Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s office was contacted by the office of Special Counsel Jack Smith in connection to the investigation into former President Donald Trump and his allies’ efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, Fox News has confirmed.

The Washington Post was the first to confirm that Smith’s office reached out to Kemp after Trump announced on TRUTH Social that he received a letter from Smith informing him he is a target of a Jan. 6 grand jury Investigation.

Smith’s activities point to a possible overlap between his investigation and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ probes. Willis has been investigating since early 2021 whether Trump and his allies broke any state laws as they tried to overturn his narrow election loss in Georgia to now-President Biden. 

Willis opened her investigation shortly after Trump called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in January 2021 and suggested the state’s top elections official could help him ‘find’ the votes needed to overturn his election loss in the state. 

Georgia’s Supreme Court last week rejected Trump’s request to have the special grand jury report quashed, and Willis has suggested any charges would come by Sept. 1. 

The Post previously reported that Raffensperger was interviewed in Atlanta last month by investigators from Smith’s office. 

Meanwhile, Kemp, who previously supported Trump, ultimately certified Biden’s victory in the Peach State following the 2020 presidential election. 

Trump endorsed Kemp’s rival, former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., in the 2022 primary contest, but Kemp went on to win the nomination and the general election. Kemp was also questioned last year by investigators from Willis’ office in connection to her investigation, FOX 5 Atlanta reported. 

CNN reported that Smith’s office has also contacted former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey in connection to the DOJ’s Trump probe in recent weeks. 

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Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Sunday that she’s ‘not confident’ in congressional testimony by IRS whistleblower Joseph Ziegler about Hunter Biden, calling the Republican-led hearing a ‘ridiculous clown show.’

Pelosi was asked by CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ anchor Dana Bash whether politics played a role in Wednesday’s hearing, when Ziegler came forward for the first time, joining his IRS supervisor Gary Shapley, to allege political interference in the prosecutorial decisions throughout the years-long federal probe into the president’s son.

‘Well, since you referenced the hearing, what a ridiculous clown show, again, on the part of the Republicans,’ Pelosi told Bash.

While Bash was asking about Wednesday’s hearing by the House Oversight Committee, Pelosi referenced a moment during a hearing the following day with Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., though she fumbled his name.

‘What did they do, bring in Joe Kennedy talking about censorship, that he’s being censored as he’s talking to the world in a congressional hearing and showing pictures that had nothing to do with the essence–,’ she said.

‘I think you mentioned Robert F. Kennedy,’ Bash corrected Pelosi before asking again about the whistleblower’s testimony.

‘Do you feel confident no politics played at DOJ?’ Bash asked the congresswoman.

‘The U.S. attorney was a Trump appointee. A Trump appointee,’ Pelosi responded. ‘Now, I have respect for whistleblowers, but the fact is that, from the basis of that hearing, they didn’t even have a fair shot at what they came to say in light of the clown show that was going on with pictures and Robert Kennedy and his ridiculous presentation.’

‘No, I’m not confident about what the whistleblower said,’ she said. ‘The U.S. attorney was a Trump attorney. This is their opinion. It was not the opinion of the others there.’

During Wednesday’s hearing, Ziegler told Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., that Hunter Biden, his family members and business associates received over $17 million due to business dealings in China, Ukraine and Romania.

Those deals included multimillion-dollar payments to Biden family-linked companies from 2014 to 2019, including $7.3 million from Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings.

Ziegler and Shapley both allege that officials at the Justice Department, FBI and IRS interfered in the investigation into Hunter Biden, and that decisions in the case were influenced by politics.

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Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy on Sunday defended former President Donald Trump, who faces a special counsel investigation regarding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol protests.

The biotech entrepreneur, during an appearance on ‘Fox News Sunday,’ responded to being slammed for not criticizing Trump a month before the first GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee. 

‘I’ve been consistent all along,’he said, ‘that I would have made different judgments than Donald Trump made – that is why I’m running in this race for the presidency – the same race that he’s in. Because I would have made different and, I believe, better judgments for the country.’ 

‘But a bad judgment is not the same thing as a crime,’ Ramaswamy continued. ‘And when we conflate the two, that sets a dangerous precedent for this country. I don’t want to see us become some banana republic where the party in power uses police force to arrest its political opponents.’ 

‘Now that I’m third in the national polls, self-interestedly it would be much easier for me to win this election if Trump were not the front-runner – if Trump were eliminated by the federal administrative police state. But that’s not the right thing for the country,’ he added.  

In a recent Fox News survey of Iowa Republicans, Trump received 46% support among likely Iowa GOP caucus goers, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received 16% and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., received 11%.  Ramaswamy came in fourth, polling at 6%. 

In South Carolina, another recent Fox News poll found Trump leading by more than 30 points. Ramaswamy came in sixth place in that poll at just 3%. 

Ramaswamy contended that he was ‘not running against anyone,’ including rival GOP presidential candidates and Democrat President Biden, stressing that he was running for the ‘vision of what it means to be American.’

‘We don’t want a super PAC puppet,’ Ramaswamy said. ‘We want an independent voice, and a patriot who actually speaks the truth. That’s’ what I’m bringing to the race.’ 

In a past book, Ramaswamy argued that Trump wrongfully claimed he did not lose the 2020 election and raised millions of dollars off his supporters, ‘Fox News Sunday’ host Shannon Bream noted. ‘What Trump did last week was wrong. Downright abhorrent. Plain and simple,’ Ramaswamy previously tweeted on Jan. 12, 2021. ‘I’ve said it before and did so in my piece.’ 

During the appearance, Ramaswamy responded to Trump’s recent comments describing Chinese President Xi Jinping as ‘brilliant’ and ‘an iron fist.’ Ramaswamy said Xi ‘is a dictator, and China is the top threat that the United States faces,’ arguing that he stands apart from other 2024 candidates, including Trump, in campaigning for ‘economic independence’ from China. 

Ramaswamy said he also has laid out a foreign policy plan based on pulling apart the China-Russian alliance. 

‘NATO was created to deter the USSR. The USSR does not exist anymore, yet NATO has expanded more after the fall of the USSR than it ever did during the USSR’s existence. So I think we have to ask the question of, ‘What advances American interests?’’ Ramaswamy said. ‘And to me, the top American interest is pulling apart the China-Russia alliance – that ends the Ukraine war, that stops us from having to fund another hundreds of billions of dollars to protect somebody else’s border that we could be using to protect our own border. And more importantly, this is also how we deter Xi Jinping from going after Taiwan.’ 

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Former Vice President Mike Pence called former President Donald Trump’s actions during the Jan. 6 protest at the U.S. Capitol ‘reckless,’ but said he isn’t ‘confident’ his former boss committed any crimes. 

‘I have said many times that the president’s words were reckless that day. I had no right to overturn the election. But while his words were reckless, I, based on what I know, I’m not yet convinced that they were criminal. I obviously wasn’t there for every meeting,’ Pence said on CNN’s ‘State of the Union.’

Last week, Trump announced he received a letter from Special Counsel Jack Smith stating that he is the target of a Jan. 6 grand jury investigation. The former president said he anticipates both an arrest and indictment.

Pence, who is running for president in the 2024 election, said he hopes ‘it does not come to’ an indictment against Trump regarding the 2020 election and Jan. 6, while noting that he believes he personally handled the day well. 

‘I know I did my duty that day,’ Pence told CNN’s Dana Bash. 

‘In one town hall after another, across New Hampshire, I heard a deep concern… about the unequal treatment of the law, and I think one more indictment against the former president will only contribute to that sense among the American people,’ Pence said. ‘I would rather that these issues and the judgment about his conduct on Jan. 6 be left to the American people in the upcoming primaries, and I’ll leave it at that.’

Pence added that he didn’t ‘know what [Trump’s] intention was’ on Jan. 6, 2021, and summed up what he witnessed from the former president as ‘reckless.’

‘I believe that history will hold him accountable. I believe that Republican primary voters know that we need new leadership in this party. I know that some of the pundits and the pollsters think it’s different out there,’ Pence continued. 

If indicted over Jan. 6, this would be the third indictment Trump has faced this year. 

The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office charged Trump in March in regard to payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. Trump pleaded not guilty in that case and has denied sleeping with Daniels or falsifying business records to keep the payment concealed. 

Trump was indicted again in June related to alleged willful retention of national defense information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, and false statements. Trump pleaded not guilty and dismissed the charges as a ‘witch hunt.’

Trump slammed the Department of Justice after receiving a letter showing he is the target of a grand jury investigation into his actions on Jan. 6, calling the matter another ‘witch hunt.’ 

‘Joe Biden’s Attorney General, Merrick Garland, who I turned down for the United States Supreme Court (in retrospect, based on his corrupt and unethical actions, a very wise decision!), together with Joe Biden’s Department of Injustice, have effectively issued a third indictment and arrest of Joe Biden’s NUMBER ONE POLITICAL OPPONENT, who is largely dominating him in the race for the Presidency,’ Trump wrote on Truth Social last week. 

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Former President Donald Trump said in a new interview clip aired Sunday that President Biden is not up to the task during a precarious time for the U.S. amid growing tensions around the globe.

‘Look, this is the most dangerous time in the history of our country because of weaponry. The nuclear power is so enormous. This isn’t two Army tanks going and shooting each other in World War I, World War II, soldiers standing behind a bunker and shooting people,’ Trump said during a sit-down interview with Fox News host Maria Bartiromo.

‘This is obliteration,’ Trump added in the interview, the second half of which aired Sunday on Fox News’ ‘Sunday Morning Futures.’

‘And we have a man that doesn’t understand what he’s doing. We have a man that … stood up and told the whole world that we have no ammunition,’ Trump said of Biden. ‘Do you know I had every ammunition building full to the brim three years ago. We’ve given it all away. But if you gave it all away – terrible. The only thing worse than that is to tell the world. … He has told China and these other places that are hostile that we have no ammunition.’

‘You talk about classified documents. That’s worse than any document that you could give,’ Trump continued, apparently in reference to the federal indictment against him with regard to classified documents found during an FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago estate last year. ‘So, now these people are sitting back in China and other places that hate us, including North Korea, where I had a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un and kept our country safe. They’re talking about the United States of America has no ammunition. Think of it. How stupid can somebody be to say that?’ 

During an interview on CNN this month, Biden let slip while explaining the controversial decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine that the United States is low on 155 mm artillery ammunition rounds, sparking outrage on social media as critics called the commander in chief’s competency into question.

‘It was a very difficult decision on my part. And by the way, I discussed this with our allies, discussed this with our friends up on the Hill,’ Biden told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on July 9, ahead of the president’s travel to Europe to attend the NATO conference in Lithuania. ‘And we’re in a situation where Ukraine continues to be brutally attacked across the board by munitions, by these cluster munitions that are – have DOD rates that are very, very low, very high, that are dangerous to civilians, No. 1.’

‘No. 2, the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition. The ammunition that they to call them, 155 millimeter weapons,’ Biden said. ‘This is a war relating to munitions and the running out of those that ammunition. And we’re low on. And so what I finally did and took the recommendation of the Defense Department to not permanently but to allow for in this transition period where we have more 155 weapons, these shells, for the Ukrainians.’

A White House official walked back Biden’s comment that the United States is running out of ammunition when asked to comment on criticism in response to Biden’s live CNN interview.

‘The military has specific requirements for the numbers of weapons systems and ammunition we maintain in our reserves in case of contingencies or military conflict,’ a White House official previously said in an email to Fox News Digital. ‘Everything we send to Ukraine is in excess of that. So, the U.S. is not running out of ammunition ourselves.’

Fox News’ Matteo Cina contributed to this report.

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Kevin Morris, an attorney and adviser for Hunter Biden, was spotted Thursday smoking a bong on the balcony of his Malibu, California, home while the president’s son was visiting.

Morris appeared to be puffing on the white bong in plain view of the public street outside the home. Hunter Biden was at the Malibu home at the time of the bong rip but was not present on the balcony when the photos were snapped, according to photos obtained by Fox News Digital.

It’s unclear what substance Morris appeared to be smoking, but recreational marijuana is legal in California.

Hunter’s visit to Morris’ house, which was first reported by the Daily Mail, comes as the House Oversight Committee’s investigation into the Biden family finances took a sharp turn this past week with the Thursday release of an FBI document that detailed how he, along with his father, President Biden, allegedly ‘coerced’ Burisma CEO Mykola Zlochevsky to pay them millions of dollars in exchange for their help in getting the Ukrainian prosecutor who was investigating the company fired.

Morris, a prominent Hollywood attorney, has assumed an increasingly big role in Biden’s life, to the point that the wealthy lawyer has been dubbed Hunter’s ‘sugar brother.’ That role has involved a wide range of areas – from financial support, to helping write a book, to lending a private jet.

Indeed, Biden, 53, flew to and from the Arkansas courthouse for his May child-support hearing aboard a luxury private jet owned by Morris, according to the New York Post, which cited flight and business records.

The jet took off from Los Angeles on April 30 just after 7 a.m., flew cross-country to Washington, D.C., where it landed, and then went to Arkansas for the hearing the next morning. Afterward, the jet left around 11:30 a.m. to return to D.C. The 7,326-mile round trip likely cost between $55,000 to $117,000, the Post reported, noting the total was the equivalent value of up to six months of Biden’s child-support payments.

Beyond the child-support hearing, the Post cited flight records that showed Morris’ plane landing in or taking off from Fayetteville, Arkansas, at least nine times between February 2022 and April 2023. Fayetteville is the home of Biden’s financial adviser, Edward Prewitt.

Morris has helped Biden maintain his allegedly lavish lifestyle, according to several reports, covering at least some of the first son’s rent and living expenses.

Perhaps most famously, Morris loaned more than $2 million to Biden to help pay off the first son’s overdue taxes, which are in part the subject of a years-long Justice Department investigation into possible tax evasion and other potential crimes.

Morris has additionally advised Biden on a host of legal, personal and financial matters, ranging from his child-support lawsuit to how to respond to ongoing federal probes in his taxes and business affairs. Biden lawyer Chris Clark told CBS News last year that Morris is serving as an ‘attorney and trusted adviser’ to the first son.

Emails and business records indicate Morris also controls Biden’s valuable assets. Indeed, Biden’s stake in a Chinese private equity firm called BHR Partners is now controlled by Morris, the Washington Free Beacon recently reported. Specifically, Morris controls Skaneateles LLC, which holds Biden’s 10% stake in BHR.

An amended joint venture contract for BHR, which was first obtained by the nonprofit investigative group Marco Polo, identifies Morris as the managing member of Biden’s LLC. BHR Partners is co-owned by the Beijing-controlled Bank of China and manages $2.1 billion in assets.

Biden initially invested $420,000 in BHR Partners in October 2017 through his personal company, Skaneateles LLC. His interest in the company spiked to an estimated $894,000, according to a March 2019 email from his former business partner, Eric Schwerin.

Additionally, amid the ongoing investigations into Hunter Biden’s business dealings, Morris assisted him in finishing his 2021 memoir, ‘Beautiful Things,’ which chronicled his drug and alcohol addictions. Biden included Morris – who reportedly found a high-powered literary agent for the first son – as part of ‘the outstanding team behind this book’ on the acknowledgments page of his memoir.

Morris has also worked on a documentary project that’s expected to build on the memoir’s story of redemption while portraying Biden as the victim of attacks from conservatives and Republicans in recent years.

Morris allegedly lied to get on to the film set of ‘My Son Hunter,’ an independent movie that presents a fictionalized and unflattering account of Biden’s drug use and foreign business dealings. According to several reports, Morris flew to Serbia with two colleagues, identified himself by name to the film crew, and said he was making a documentary about Biden’s alleged ‘corruption’ without revealing their relationship. Morris and his two colleagues were given full access to the set for several days, taping hours of footage for the supposed documentary.

However, when revelations about Morris’ connection to Biden first came to light last year, Phelim McAleer, a producer of the film, called the lawyer’s behavior ‘unethical,’ adding that ‘if I had known that he was providing legal and media consult to Hunter Biden, I would have treated him rather differently.’

Morris didn’t immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

Fox News’ Brooke Singman and Matteo Cina contributed to this report.

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The Supreme Court decision last month that ruled against affirmative action in higher education could dismantle diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs in corporate America, experts say.

On Thursday, the Supreme Court said in a 6-3 decision that colleges and universities could not include race considerations in their admissions process, effectively outlawing what’s known as affirmative action and upending previous legal precedent that allowed it.

The decision has sparked debate on if and how it could influence other sectors of public life, including the hiring and promotion practices of companies and corporations.

Fox News Digital spoke with experts who say the decision could mean that corporations could be held liable for ‘wokeism’ in DEI programs and policies.

Will Hild, executive director of Consumers’ Research, says that case could expose companies who prioritize race in staffing decisions as violating the Civil Rights Act.

‘That fig leaf has now gone. There’s no question that affirmative action, racially based hiring and promotion schemes violate the Civil Rights Act,’ Hild said.

‘And you no longer have this even potential loophole of the affirmative action jurisprudence. I think … you’re going to see a lot of companies, their legal compliance officers, are going to review what their DEI departments are doing and probably tell them to cut it out,’ he said.

‘I think you’ll see a lot of companies who might even get rid of their DEI departments because the philosophy around the DEI is almost directly in contradiction with law to begin with,’ he added.

Hild said that while most affirmative action legal precedent has involved higher education, corporations had been relying on that jurisprudence to justify certain DEI practices. 

‘This is going to put wind in the sails of groups like mine and others who are focused on getting the wokeism out of corporate America. They no longer even have this fig leaf of this pre-Harvard case jurisprudence,’ Hild said.

Hild said that during 2020-2022, he saw companies engaging in ‘hiring promotion schemes’ that in some cases were ‘explicitly racially based.’ Now, those companies could be exposed to litigation.

‘And they were already, I think, playing with fire there and inviting some pretty serious litigation. Now, there really isn’t even a legal argument to be made that they can engage in this kind of behavior.’ Hild said.

‘If they’re doing it explicitly, it’s going to be a very fast and negative case for them,’ Hild said.

‘And if they’re doing it quietly, I think they’re playing with fire. If it comes out in emails or communications that, they may not have said it on the job application, but they were discriminating quietly within the company, they’re not going to have any legal defense at this point that their goals were noble and so it’s OK. It’s just flat-out illegal now,’ he said.

Gene Hamilton, general counsel for America First Legal, said that the Supreme Court decision signals the ‘writing on the wall’ for corporations.

‘If I was advising major corporations and law schools and medical schools and everything else, I would tell them to immediately get out of the business of racial preferences and out of the business of racial quotas,’ Hamilton said.

‘Because what we see is the writing on the wall. We see the fact that there is no tolerance amongst the majority of Supreme Court for these types of divisive programs,’ he said. 

‘Tread carefully,’ Hamilton warned, ‘there is a lot of liability for employers in this space.’

Justice Clarence Thomas said the court’s decision ‘sees the universities’ admissions policies for what they are: rudderless, race-based preferences designed to ensure a particular racial mix in their entering classes.’

‘Individuals are the sum of their unique experiences, challenges and accomplishments. What matters is not the barriers they face but how they choose to confront them. And their race is not to blame for everything – good or bad – that happens in their lives,’ Thomas said. ‘A contrary, myopic world view based on individuals’ skin color to the total exclusion of their personal choices is nothing short of racial determinism.’

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FIRST ON FOX: The campaign for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis released a six-minute video showing liberal media personalities repeatedly labeling the Republican presidential candidate as ‘more dangerous’ than former President Donald Trump.

The DeSantis War Room on Sunday posted the video, ‘6 MINUTES Of The Left Admitting They Fear DeSantis More Than Trump,’ which features commentary from an array of left-wing commentators including Van Jones, David Pakman and Olayemi Olurin.

‘This guy is worse than Trump,’ Jones says in the video.

 ‘I honestly believe DeSantis was forged in Hell. There’s no doubt in my mind,’ Olurin says in the video. 

‘If you thought Donald Trump was bad, you got another thing coming,’ says Maxwell Frost.

The commentators in the clip make their point by arguing DeSantis is more ‘savvy,’ ‘disciplined’ and ‘competent’ than Trump and would be more capable of executing the Republican agenda.

‘The Trump agenda would be far more likely to be carried on by people less cartoonishly problematic, and Ron Desantis is a perfect example of such an individual,’ Pakman argues in the video.

‘He’s honestly more sinister, you know why? Because there’s less buffoonery to it,’ Olurin says.

‘Based on what he’s done in five years in Florida, what would he do with all the levers of power in the White House?’ former Rep. David Jolly, D-Fla., says in the video.

The Trump campaign issued a statement to Fox News Digital on Sunday saying the liberal talking points are irrelevant.

‘President Trump has been dominating in poll after poll – both nationally and statewide,’ the campaign said. ‘It’s not what commentators or pundits think, it’s about what the voters think, and they are clearly behind President Trump in a big way.’

‘The fact is that President Trump will be the nominee and will beat Crooked Joe Biden because he’s the only person who can supercharge the economy, secure our border, safeguard communities, and put an end to unnecessary wars,’ the statement added. ‘Americans want to return to a prosperous nation and there’s only one person who can do that – President Trump.’

On the campaign trail, DeSantis repeatedly points to his overwhelming gubernatorial re-election last November in the once-purple Sunshine State.

‘What we did was not just a big victory. It was really a fundamental realignment of Florida from being a swing state to being a red state,’ DeSantis recently touted on the campaign trail.

According to a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released last week, Trump’s lead over DeSantis is shrinking. 

Trump leads DeSantis by 37% to 23% in the poll, which is five percentage points down from the previous UNH survey in April.

Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

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The market’s leadership is changing, just in time for the Fed’s next rate increase. And the stocks of companies where there are tight supplies of products look poised to make a big move.

The market is expecting another 25 basis point rate hike on 7/26. I see no reason to disagree. I’m more interested in what the market does in response, and I’m already seeing signs that the smart money is making bets on sectors where product supplies are tightening.

Moving on, the bloom is off the rose on AI, for now, as Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM), on 7/20, missed on its earnings, downgraded its guidance, and forecast a future glut of semiconductors, which its CEO noted is unlikely to be offset by demand from the AI sector. Oops!

On the same day, homebuilder DR Horton (DHI) delivered a hefty beat of expectations, offered stable guidance, and yet the stock also tanked. But while TSM’s shares continued to drop, DHI may have found support. The difference between the two is the underlying supply-demand scenario for their respective products.

Expect a Continued Supply Squeeze in Key Economic Sectors

In the past few weeks, I’ve highlighted the bullish influence of tight supplies on key market sectors, such as oil, which I discussed in detail here.

Since that article was published (5/28/23), West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC) is up nearly $10 per barrel, with the price now testing the 200-day moving average. A move above the $80 per barrel price now looks like a reasonable expectation as oil producers are gradually turning off the spigots. In 2023, there are 100 fewer operating rigs in the U.S. compared to 2022. OPEC and Russia are also cutting production.

The NYSE Oil Index (XOI) of oil stocks has already crossed its 200-day line, marking its return to bull market territory. I’ve been building positions in energy stocks for the past several weeks. So far, so good.

In contrast, TSM crashed in response to its bearish supply forecast for the chip market. Indeed, the price chart shows the decline was well forecast by the stock’s double top, which developed prior the earnings announcement.  

Moreover, Accumulation/Distribution topped out with the stock and began dropping as short sellers built positions. In addition, On Balance Volume (OBV) rolled over soon after ADI, as the smart money began to outright sell the stock. The drop in both indicators accelerated on the news suggesting the selling, which has taken the stock below its 50-day moving average. Given the status of the Volume-by-Price Bars (VBP) on the chart, the $85 area near the 200-day moving average is a reasonable longer-term target on the downside.

Meanwhile, DHI found support at its 20-day moving average after sellers took profits. That’s because not only did DHI beat its estimates handily, but it also raised its guidance for the rest of the year and again noted that housing supplies remain tight, demand is stable, and the company continues to manage its inventory to ensure balance and maintain its earnings and profit margins.

All of which, until proven otherwise, adds up to the current decline being a short-term pullback for DHI. This, of course, could change depending on what the Fed does and how it affects bond yields and mortgage rates. As I detail below, supply remains on the side of the homebuilders.

I own shares in DHI, which is currently a long-term holding at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com. You can have a look at the entire portfolio, and my latest recommendations on what to do with your homebuilder shares FREE with a two week trial subscription.

Homebuilders are in a Sweet Spot

According to Redfin, 90% of homeowners hold mortgages with rates below 6%. Nearly 25% are paying 3%. Redfin adds that only 14 out of 1000 homes in the U.S. are now exchanging hands; compared to 19 of 1000 homes in 2019.

Homeowners don’t want to sell since a new home would mean a higher mortgage. Homebuilders are building just enough homes to keep up with demand; ensuring profit margins. The result is record-low supplies of homes, and a homebuilder sweet spot.

So, why did the homebuilders take a beating on 7/20/23? Partially, it was out of fear of the Fed, as yields climbed U.S. Ten Year note yield (TNX) on the same day. Yet, by the next day, yields retraced their rise although TNX remained above 3.8%. As you can see, mortgage rates finally caught up to the lower bond yields, which occurred in early July. This also built a floor under DHI and the rest of the homebuilders after the 7/20 decline.

Meanwhile, analysts are reducing their outlook on homebuilders, expecting an increase in supplies once the Fed lowers interest rates. But here’s the rub. Redfin’s survey concludes that most potential existing home sellers would not consider listing their home until mortgage rates fall to 5%. Since the average 30-year mortgage is currently hovering near 6.5-7%, bond yields would have to fall two points from current levels to reach the magic 5% number. That would be a U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) of between 1.5 to 2%, which would mean that the economy has slowed drastically.

Bottom Line

Until proven otherwise, sectors where product supplies are tight, especially in the face of stable or high demand, are going to fare better over the next few months. Think oil. Think homebuilders. Think agricultural and commodity products.

My subscribers have been taking profits in both homebuilders and AI stocks for weeks. Now, we’re heeding our sell stops and will wait to see what happens with both these sectors after the Fed makes its move.

As I described in my latest Your Daily Five video, and as I described above I follow the footprints left by the smart money. You can see where the smart money is flowing to now with a FREE trial to my service by clicking here.

Incidentally, if you’re looking for more in-depth actionable data on real estate, an area where the smart money is currently building positions, check out my Weekly Real Estate Report here.

New Highs on NYAD

As I said last week, the long-term trend for stocks remains up. The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) remains in a stable position for now as it remains above its 50 and 200-day moving averages.

Last week, I noted that the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) was overdue for a consolidation, as illustrated by its reversal we saw on 7/15/23, outside the upper Bollinger Band. The bad news from Taiwan Semiconductor was just the excuse for the selling. Still, ADI and OBV, although they’ve rolled over in the short term, remain in uptrends. Support is at now at 15,250 and the 20-day moving average.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is acting a bit better. Both ADI and OBV are showing signs of some profit-taking. There is support at 4300-4450.

VIX Holds Steady

I’ve been expecting a move higher in VIX, but it hasn’t materialized. When this happens, it usually leads to stable-to-higher stock prices. The key is whether VIX can rise above the 15 level convincingly.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity Remains Stable

As it has for the past few weeks, liquidity has been stable. This is one of the reasons the market has been in a bullish trend. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which recently replaced the Eurodollar Index (XED), but is an equal sign of the market’s liquidity remains range bound, which is relatively bullish. A move below 5.0 would be more bullish. A rise above 5.1% would be bearish.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

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Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

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