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Beware the ides of August.

I have written that line since the late ‘aughts’ here on Capitol Hill.

Shakespeare penned the line, ‘Beware the ides of March,’ in his play ‘Julius Caesar.’

A soothsayer had warned the Roman leader to not let up his guard around the middle of the month. And as it turns out, that’s when Caesar was assassinated on the ‘ides of March’ — March 15.

What an omen.

Foreboding. Cursed. Ominous.

In fact, the entire month of March can sometimes appear that way meteorologically.

We use a different metric in politics and specifically on Capitol Hill. August shouldn’t be such a terrifying month. After all, it’s summer. But without a doubt, some of the most utterly strange and consequential political events form in August.

This is ironic in Washington. That’s because the House and Senate are usually out of session for most of August.

But periodically, the vacuum of Congress being away from Washington actually generates its own news. That’s because some major issue may erupt, pressing Congress into meeting in August when it’s not supposed to do so. Occasionally an event is so significant that lawmakers are summoned back to Washington to tackle a catastrophic issue.

Congress is long gone from Washington this August. Both the House and Senate abandoned the nation’s capital in late July. The House even cut town a day early after Republicans couldn’t reach consensus on approving an agriculture appropriations bill. So it would take a lot to siphon lawmakers back to town this August.

But real world events have a way of doing that.

Congress remained in session into early August in 2011 to wrestle with the debt ceiling. That coincided with the day that former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., miraculously returned to Congress just months after being shot in the head. And a few days later, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit worthiness of the federal government due to the debt ceiling drama.

Lawmakers returned in late August 2013 for intelligence briefings on Syria. Former President Obama was trying to engineer support for potential military action in and around Syria. But the votes on Capitol Hill never materialized.

The Democratically-controlled House famously failed to approve a crime bill in August 1994, when crime spiked around the nation. Democrats viewed adoption of the crime bill as key to their electoral success heading into the midterm elections. A few weeks later, Democrats successfully marshaled the votes, and recalled the House in late August to approve the crime bill.

As it turned out, Republicans tethered the bill to the Democrats and won the House that fall for the first time in 40 years.

All because of what unfolded in August.

Something similar unfolded in August 2009. And, to a lesser degree, in August of 2010.

Congress was out for the month in 2009. But congressional Democrats were trying to pass Obamacare. Republicans met this effort with vitriolic town halls. The tea party was on the rise, opponents of the then-president and Republican loyalists showed up at town meetings to heckle and taunt Democrats. These raucous August sessions helped energize Republicans — especially after Congress approved the health care bill in March of 2010. Moreover, they captured a lot of news oxygen and dominated the headlines that August. That set the table for Republicans to win back the House in the 2010 midterms, capturing a staggering 63 seats.

All because of August.

In fact, Republicans began to hone this ‘August strategy’ in the summer of 2008.

The House voted to leave for more than a month. Being a presidential election year, both Democrats and Republicans were holding their presidential conventions in August and early September.

But that didn’t stop Republicans from commandeering the House chamber on a daily basis to hold rump sessions and rail against the Democratic majority. House GOPers rotated a set of members on a daily basis — even dragging some members of the Capitol press corps into the chamber to observe the action. The GOPers would also bring in tourists. Republicans made sure they focused on their target: then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Republicans even claimed that Pelosi adjourned the House by herself and locked them out of the chamber. Never mind that roll call vote I mentioned earlier to adjourn for the conventions. And the speaker certainly didn’t lock anyone out. After all, the Republicans wouldn’t have made it into the chamber each day if the doors were locked.

But the rhubarb made a good show for Republicans in August 2008.

Sometimes non-political forces force Washington, D.C., into action in August. Congress returned to session in August 2006 after Hurricane Katrina pulverized the Gulf Coast.

Still, these episodes surrounding Congress in August pale to other major political news stories that emerged in August.

The late President Truman dropped bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.

Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his ‘I Have a Dream’ speech in Washington in August 1963.

President Nixon resigned in August 1974 as President Ford took over.

It was still August 31, 1983, in Washington (barely) when the Soviets shot down a Korean Air Lines flight, killing all 269 people on board. Among the dead: late Rep. Larry McDonald, R-Ga.

Late Rep. Mickey Leland. R-Texas and congressional aides died in a plane crash in August 1989.

Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, teeing up the first Gulf War in 1991.

Princess Diana died in Paris in August 1997.

Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008 — a partial prelude to today’s war in Ukraine.

Late Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, died in a plane crash in August 2010.

A 5.8 magnitude earthquake centered in Virginia rocked Washington, D.C., damaging the Capitol complex in August 2011.

The white supremacist ‘Unite the Right’ rally unfolded in Charlottesville, Virginia, in August 2017.

And so far, this August has been far from inconsequential.

Special Counsel Jack Smith indicted former President Trump on charges of trying to overturn the election and linking him to the Capitol riot on Aug. 1. Trump appeared in federal court in the shadow of the Capitol on Aug. 3.

Sandwiched between that was a wild scene on the Senate side of the Capitol on Aug. 2. U.S. Capitol Police searched the Senate office buildings, in pursuit of a potential active shooter. The episode frightened hundreds of congressional aides, workers, reporters and tourists, all in the Senate office buildings.

This all unfolds as there is chatter about another indictment looming for the former president in Georgia. And congressional Republicans are sure talking about trying to impeach President Biden when lawmakers return in September. There will be lot of talk about impeachment this August, even if it doesn’t result in impeachment for the president.

Discussion about impeachment for then-President Trump really accelerated in August 2019 — resulting in his first impeachment later that year. It wouldn’t have happened but for the events of that August.

And, much like S&P in 2011, credit rater Fitch downgraded the federal government’s credit ratings this August due to the debt ceiling drama of the spring. That sparked a market selloff.

So August is seminal in politics.

We’re now approaching the middle of August. If history is our guide, beware the ides of August.

Even if the ides of March get most of the attention.

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A Venezuelan migrant has been accused of raping a woman in front of a 3-year-old child, authorities announced on Tuesday.

Jesus Guzman-Bermudez is accused of restraining the victim by holding their head down while raping her in a hotel room in Cheektowaga in Erie County, New York, last week. Erie County District Attorney John Flynn announced that Guzman-Bermudez, 26, was arraigned on Friday on one count of rape in the first degree, one count of unlawful imprisonment in the second degree, one count of endangering the welfare of a child and one count of harassment in the second degree. 

He was held without bail and faces a maximum of 25 years in prison if convicted. Prosecutors say the suspect and victim knew each other, and the alleged crime is said to have occurred in front of their 3-year-old child who was also present in the hotel room.

‘It wasn’t like an incident where this individual went out in town, grabbed some victim and took them back to the hotel room. That’s not the case here. They clearly knew one another,’ Flynn told WBEN.

He stressed that it is only the fourth incident among migrants in the county.

‘The first three were petty larceny, so very small crimes, minor offenses. This is obviously much more serious,’ he said. ‘But four out of over 500, obviously, the vast majority over 95% are abiding by the laws and behaving.’

The announcement immediately drew criticism from state Republicans, who have objected to the transport of migrants to their communities as part of New York City’s strategy to cope with what it says is an overwhelming migrant surge.

‘This disgusting individual was brought to Western New York courtesy of failed Democrat ‘sanctuary’ and open border policies which have created chaos across our country, state and now here in Western New York, ‘Senate Republican leader Rob Ortt said in a statement. ‘All while hardworking, tax-paying New Yorkers and Americans continue to foot the bill.’

It marks the latest fallout from the migrant crisis, which has overwhelmed the southern border and caused knock-on effects in states and cities across the country. 

New York City has been overwhelmed by the approximately 54,000 migrants it is caring for in its shelter system, some of whom have been bussed there from Texas. The city earlier this year began bussing migrants elsewhere in the state.

On Tuesday, Massachusetts became the latest liberal jurisdiction to declare a state of emergency over the number of migrants, calling for additional funding from the federal government and immigration reform to allow migrants to work.

Meanwhile, Border Patrol agents have documented a number of encounters with sex offenders at the southern border. Border Patrol Chief Jason Owens announced on Tuesday that agents encountered six previously convicted sex offenders at the southern border.

The Department of Homeland Security, meanwhile, is sending ICE special agents to the border in increasing numbers — while also putting out fresh calls for federal employees to volunteer to aid Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in processing and other tasks.

Fox News’ Maria Paronich contributed to this report.

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A retired health care executive has entered next year’s race for North Carolina governor, with Jesse Thomas describing himself Tuesday as a ‘no-nonsense Republican’ who aims to attract voters within the ‘wide middle ground between the two extremes.’

Thomas, who led the Medicaid plan offered by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina to hundreds of thousands of consumers, announced his bid on a Greensboro-area podcast last week, when he also filed his candidate committee paperwork.

Recently involved in the North Carolina chapter of the Forward Party — founded by former presidential candidate Andrew Yang — Thomas joins an already crowded GOP gubernatorial field. Candidates include Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, State Treasurer Dale Folwell, former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker and ex-state legislator Andy Wells.

‘North Carolinians are ready for a Governor that will provide real results for our citizens, not one who opines to the Nonsense of the hour,’ Thomas said in a news release.

A Cary resident, Thomas said he would work to make North Carolina ‘first in healthy’ if he became governor. His platform includes eliminating the state income tax, expanding alternatives to traditional public schools and managing successfully the soon-anticipated expansion of Medicaid to hundreds of thousands of adults.

Thomas was born in Mississippi and has had an over 30-year career in health care, including Medicaid managed care. His resume lists him as an executive for health insurance plans in Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. In 2018 he joined Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina, during which the company landed one of the state’s Medicaid managed care contracts, creating what is now known at Healthy Blue.

Thomas said he’s been a congressional candidate and a health care adviser to then-Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, as well as a trustee at the University of North Carolina at Pembroke.

Thomas’ news release describes him as a ‘peacemaker’ who wants to attract more unaffiliated voters to the GOP. He said people are sick of ‘career politicians’ and ‘extremists’ who espouse acrimony, bigotry and anger.

‘I come with a political savvy, and I do come with a perspective and a background of a tried, tested and true individual who has been there and done something,’ he said on the ‘Common Ground’ podcast, which focuses on racial issues.

In a brief interview Tuesday, Thomas accused Robinson — the leading GOP fundraiser in the race — of failing to show leadership as the state Senate’s presiding officer in helping get a state budget passed that would permit Medicaid expansion to begin this fall, giving health care to more residents. Robinson has taken criticism while lieutenant governor for his sharp comments about LGBTQ+ rights, abortion and the role of women.

‘He is focused on the culture war and the bedroom issues, instead of the kitchen-table issues,’ Thomas said. For years, the office of lieutenant governor has had little involvement in General Assembly budget negotiations. A Robinson campaign spokesperson did not immediately respond to an email Tuesday seeking comment.

North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein is the lone high-profile Democrat to date to announce a gubernatorial bid to succeed Democrat Roy Cooper, who is barred by law from seeking a third consecutive term. Primaries will be held in March.

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Officials in New York City say that eight buses of migrants are expected to arrive in the city between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aries Dela Cruz, a spokesperson for the New York City Emergency Management Department, told Fox News Digital on Tuesday afternoon that three migrant buses are expected to arrive on Tuesday, with an additional five buses on Wednesday.

Their arrivals come as New York City Mayor Eric Adams said Monday that Randall’s Island will house some migrants in a new tent city.

‘As the number of asylum seekers in our care continues to grow by hundreds every day, stretching our system to its breaking point and beyond, it has become more and more of a Herculean effort to find enough beds every night,’ Adams said in a press release. ‘We will continue to work with the governor and elected officials across the state to address this crisis as New York City continues to do more than any other level of government.’

Since spring, over 93,000 migrants have entered New York City, according to the mayor’s office. 

Adams said during a press conference last week that there’s no longer room for migrants to stay in the city.

‘Our next phase of this strategy, now that we have run out of room, we have to figure out how we’re going to localize the inevitable that there’s no more room indoors,’ Adams said.  ‘Here’s where we are right now. Yes, there were people sleeping in cooling vans. There were people along the sidewalk. We have to localize this madness. We have to figure out a way of how we don’t have what’s in other municipalities where you have tent cities all over the city.’

Fox 5 reported that The Roosevelt Hotel, where some migrants have been staying, has reached full capacity.

Pictures and video last week showed migrants sleeping outside the hotel, wrapping around the building.

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Minyon Moore, the former Biden adviser who served on the board of directors of the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation last year, will chair the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, the party announced Tuesday.

Moore, a Chicago native who currently serves as a co-chair of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, previously served on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and as assistant to the president and director of White House Political Affairs under President Bill Clinton.

‘I am thrilled for the opportunity to serve as Chair to the 2024 Democratic National Convention in my hometown of Chicago, Illinois,’ Moore said in a DNC press release. 

‘I am grateful to the team members who have already been working hard, and know that through their work, and the strong team we continue to build, that this convention will be a success,’ she said.

The press release made no mention of Moore briefly serving on the board of the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation in 2022. 

While Moore was listed as a board member during the group’s February 2022 tax filings, she was absent from the registration forms submitted in Florida and Oklahoma on behalf of the group on April 28, 2022, signaling she had stepped down, the Washington Examiner reported at the time.

The DNC did not respond to Fox News Digital’s inquiry seeking clarification.

Moore, who has been described by media outlets as an informal adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris, was tapped in February 2022 to advise President Biden during his nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, Fox News Digital reported at the time. 

In 2020, Moore served as a member of the advisory council of the Biden-Harris transition team. She is also a former CEO of the DNC and currently leads the public affairs firm Dewey Square Group.

The convention is slated for Aug. 19-22, 2024, in Chicago.

Moore’s involvement with the BLM movement followed painstaking efforts by Biden and mainstream Democrats to distance themselves from the anti-police rhetoric of the defund the police movement embraced by the party’s progressive wing.

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Former President Donald Trump mocked fellow Republican presidential hopeful and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie over his weight during a campaign stump speech in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

The moment took a turn though when Trump jokingly admonished a member of the audience who, according to the former president, called Christie a ‘fat pig.’

‘Christie — he’s eating right now. He can’t be bothered,’ Trump said during the speech as the crowd laughed.

‘Sir, please do not call him a fat pig. That’s very disrespectful. Don’t call him — See, I’m trying to be nice,’ Trump then said, addressing the audience member who Trump said called Christie the name. 

‘Don’t call him a fat pig. You can’t do it. You can’t do that. So now, because you’re not allowed to do that, and, therefore, we’re not going to do it, okay? We want to be very civil, right?’ Trump said as he chuckled.

Trump’s comments were just the latest instance of his poking fun at Christie’s weight, something he’s done on multiple occasions in the past.

In June, Trump appeared to target Christie’s size in multiple social media posts following the former governor’s launch of his second presidential campaign.

‘How many times did Chris Christie use the word SMALL? Does he have a psychological problem with SIZE?’ Trump wrote on Truth Social, referencing Christie’s launch speech.

‘Actually, his speech was SMALL, and not very good. It rambled all over the place, and nobody had a clue of what he was talking about. Hard to watch, boring, but that’s what you get from a failed Governor (New Jersey) who left office with a 7% approval rating and then got run out of New Hampshire. This time, it won’t be any different!’ he added.

In September, Trump posted a photo of a man that looked like Christie standing at a buffet. ‘Chris Christie at a Roy Rogers at 11 PM in the evening trying to console himself,’ Trump wrote.

Fox News Digital has reached out to Christie’s campaign for comment. 

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WINDHAM, N.H. – In his first stop in a crucial early voting state in the Republican presidential nominating calendar since his arraignment in federal court last week, former President Donald Trump blasted the latest federal charges he’s facing, complaining that they’ll keep him off the campaign trail.

Speaking to supporters at a campaign event in Windham, New Hampshire on Tuesday, Trump called his two federal indictments ‘bulls—,’ and blamed President Biden for his legal controversies.

The former president’s stop in New Hampshire came in the wake of his indictment and arraignment last week on charges he attempted to overturn his loss in the 2020 election.

Trump, who’s making his third straight White House run, this spring became the first sitting or former president in U.S. history to be charged with a crime.

And in early June Trump was indicted and arraigned in federal court in Florida on criminal charges that he illegally retained national security records at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, following the end of his term as president and that he obstructed federal efforts to recover the documents.

‘How can my corrupt political opponent, crooked Joe Biden, put me on trial during an election campaign that I’m winning by a lot, but forcing me nevertheless to spend time and money away from the campaign trail in order to fight bogus, made-up accusations and charges,’ Trump argued.

‘I’m sorry, I won’t be able to go to Iowa today, I won’t be able to go to New Hampshire today because I’m sitting in a courtroom on bulls— because his attorney general charged me with something,’ Trump claimed.

Trump’s comments sparked chants of ‘bulls—‘ from the crowd of a couple of thousand supporters who were packed into a hot and humid high school gymnasium in this Republican stronghold in southern New Hampshire.

While Trump reiterated his criticism of Biden, the president has largely refrained from discussing Trump’s legal controversies and has repeatedly stressed that he’s had no contact with the Justice Department over the investigations of his predecessor in the White House.

Trump pleaded not guilty in federal court in Washington D.C. last Thursday to four counts: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights. 

The indictment came after Trump was informed that he was a target in the probe into his actions and state of mind on Jan. 6, 2021, and in the lead-up to that infamous day – when right wing extremists and other Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. The attack temporarily disrupted congressional certification of Biden’s Electoral College victory over Trump.

The indictment alleges that Trump pursued unlawful means of discounting legitimate votes and subverting the 2020 presidential election results and that he corruptly obstructed and impeded the certification of the electoral vote.

Trump railed against the indictments throughout his nearly 90 minute speech and doubled down on his unproven claims that the 2020 election was ‘rigged,’ ‘stolen’ and ‘disgusting.’

Trump also charged that that prosecutors are trying to restrict his rights guaranteed by the First Amendment of the Constitution, which is an argument that his lawyers in the case have highlighted.

‘You know, they want to take away your freedom of speech,’ the former president argued. ‘The case is a ridiculous case. It’s a First Amendment case. But we don’t want Trump to speak.’

Trump, who’s the commanding front-runner in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, spotlighted a number of polls that he said showed him way ahead of his rivals. And he said that ‘every time I get indicted, I like to check the polls,’ which elicited laughter from the crowd.

The former president reiterated that ‘one more indictment and I think this election’s over.’

Trump campaign senior adviser in New Hampshire Steve Stepanek told Fox News that when it comes to the former president’s indictments, ‘We ignore it. We are focused on building the ground game and pushing forward and that’s just background noise as far as we’re concerned.’

Stepanek, a co-chair in New Hampshire of Trump’s 2016 campaign who later served as state GOP chairman, said that the indictments get Trump supporters ‘more aggravated and dedicated. Period.’

James Geschwindner, a longtime Trump supporter from Loudon, New Hampshire, told Fox News following the campaign event in Windham that the indictments ‘absolutely’ fuel his support for the former president. ‘There’s no way he doesn’t have my vote.’

Geschwinder said that the indictments are’backfiring. Every time that they attack him, he goes up.’

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Today, we’re continuing to look at the reset of the July 6-month calendar ranges in 4 of the Economic Modern Family Sectors. To remind you, the range is good until the next time it resets in January 2024. 

Beginning with Transportation (IYT), as of last Friday, it has begun to slip below the green horizontal line, or 6-month calendar range high (CRH). However, IYT is in a bullish phase, far from its 50-DMA t 248.

Momentum, as measured by our Real Motion indicator, has a slight bearish momentum diversion with momentum on its 50-DMA. The 6-month calendar range low is 245.84. With IYT’s topping candle late July, a move to test the CRL would be about a 10% correction.

Moving on to Semiconductors (SMH), this was even worse than the QQQs. SMH never cleared its 6-month CRH and has retreated with today’s move testing the 50-DMA. Momentum broke the Bollinger band. If SMH is to hold, the low 151.50 up to the 50-DMA at 152.30 should hold, and we will look for a potential mean reversion.

If SMH cannot hold these levels, the 6-month CRL is at 147.00. Under there, expect a much deeper correction. Thus far, a 5-10% correction, considering how frothy the levels were becoming, is expected and normal. Plus, all our risk factors continue to point to risk on.

Regional Banks (KRE) hit the news today with Moody’s downgrade on a few banks. KRE CLEARED its 6-month CRH and, even with today’s downgrade, consolidates at higher levels. That makes 44.40 the key support. Plus, although the momentum is declining, that price retook 48.00 during today’s action can be considered healthy. Perhaps this was a “buy the downgrade” news scenario.

As for Biotechnology (IBB), momentum is back on the upswing. With the price is under both the 50-DMA and the 6-month CRH, we see potential here for a move higher. The levels are clear — 128.30 for a phase change to recuperation, then a move over the 6-month CRH or 130.36, and we would be looking more closely at that sector.

We find it fascinating that the ONLY sector in the economic modern family above the July range is Regional Banks. Is that relaxing or frightening?

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

In this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne, Mish and Charles cover Fed, oil and gas, and some picks for a manufacturing boom.

Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss market in correction, oil concerns, and some new picks on TD Ameritrade.

Mish runs the rule over the S&P 500 and key commodities in this video from CMC Markets.

Mish gives reasons why gold could return as a safe haven on Business First AM.

Mish talks about opportunities related to EVs in this video from Business First AM.

Mish and Jared go over oil and what might happen with small caps and regional banks in this appearance on Yahoo! Finance.

This has been a very heavy week with the Fed meeting, tons of earnings, and, not to mention, all of the geopolitical issues around the world. Something that Mish has been thinking a lot about is store houses for raw materials, the places that actually hold every kind of raw material from mining, commodity trading houses etc. Mish dives into the stocks she’s looking at on the Wednesday, July 26 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five.

Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments and outlines their possible direction of travel in this video from CMC Markets.

In this episode of The Breakfast Show from Money FM 89.3 Singapore, Mish makes sense of the recent resilience and worrisome trends in the market, delving on the various factors driving consumer confidence in the face of rising rates and inflation, the impact of A.I.-driven companies, and the ongoing geopolitical risks on commodities and equities.

Mish talks PCE inflation picks in this video from Business First AM.

Coming Up:

August 9, 10: Mario Nawfal Financial Spaces, 8am ET

August 10: Benzinga Morning Prep Show & The Final Bar on StockCharts TV

August 28: Chuck Jaffe, Money Show

September 7: Singapore Breakfast Radio, 89.3 FM

October 29-31: The Money Show

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 450 pivotal, 440 support at the 50-DMA.Russell 2000 (IWM): 191 is the 23-month holy grail; 194 July 6-month range high.Dow (DIA): 35,000 support.Nasdaq (QQQ): 362-382 range.Regional Banks (KRE): 50 in focus if holds 48.Semiconductors (SMH): 161 resistance, 150 in focus.Transportation (IYT): July 6-month calendar range high at 259.30.Biotechnology (IBB): Compression between 123-130.Retail (XRT): 66-67.40 short-term range (closing levels matter).

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, David Keller, CMT tracks the initial selloff and subsequent recovery for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with bullish candle patterns popping up on charts like AAPL. He digs into market breadth indicators, which have signaled a likely rotation from accumulation phase to distribution phase for stocks.

This video originally premiered on August 8, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you look at the performance of the S&P 500 index ($SPX), the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) over the past six months, you’ll see that $COMPQ is the performance leader, while $INDU is the laggard.

CHART 1: PERFCHART OF THE THREE MAJOR INDEXES. The Nasdaq Composite is the leader while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the laggard. Will the Dow catch up?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

But while $SPX and $COMPQ are trading below their 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), $INDU could bounce off this level. Is it going to be a sprint or a jog to new highs for these three indexes?

Technical Perspective of DIA

If you want a piece of the action in $INDU, it’s worth looking at the chart of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). The daily chart of DIA below shows that, although DIA dipped below its 21-day EMA on August 8, it recovered and closed just above $353.

CHART 2: DAILY CHART OF SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ETF. DIA bounced off its 21-day exponential moving average, has a SCTR score > 70, and has strong market internals. Could DIA see new highs soon?Chart source: StockCharts.com (click chart for live version). For educational purposes.

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score in the upper panel has crossed above 70, which is a positive sign. The Dow New Highs-New Lows Percent ($DOWHLP) in the lower panel is above zero, although lower than during DIA’s upward move. But during a pullback, it’s not unusual for the new highs to decline. Its positive value is encouraging.

Benefits of Trading Index ETFs

Trading an index ETF such as DIA gives you exposure to all the stocks in the index without buying individual stocks. It reduces some of the stock-specific risks that could occur with individual stocks.

StockCharts Tip: To find out more about DIA, scroll down to the Summary Pages in the Member Tools Section of Your Dashboard and click on Symbol Summary. Type DIA in the symbol box to view fundamental and technical details. Click on the URL in the Profile section to see the top holdings in DIA.

Investing in DIA gives you some exposure to stocks like United Health (ticker symbol: UNH), Goldman Sachs (ticker symbol: GS), Microsoft (ticker symbol: MSFT), and Home Depot (HD) along with several big-name industrial stocks.

If DIA bounces off the 21-day EMA and moves higher, it could see new highs. It’s very close to its 358.47 high, reached on the week of January 3, 2022.

If you switch to StockChartsACP, you can add the Distance From Highs indicator to see how far DIA is from its 52-week high (see the lower panel in chart below). The weekly chart shows that DIA is very close to its 52-week high.

Technically speaking, DIA looks like a strong candidate for a long position. Of course, you shouldn’t rule out the possibility that DIA could stall and fall further. Keep an eye on the 21-period EMA; a bounce from here with strong market internals could push this ETF to new highs. And if it happens, you don’t want to miss it.

CHART 3: DIA TRADING CLOSE TO ITS 52-WEEK HIGH. The Distance From Highs indicator suggests that DIA is close to its 52-week high. Could it go higher, or will it stall and move lower? It remains to be seen, but, if the former scenario plays out, it could be a great trading opportunity.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Final Thoughts

DIA is a great way to trade the stocks that comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average. You could also use the ETF to hedge your portfolio using options, especially if you already own shares of individual companies in the index. The same applies to any index ETF because they give you an overall view of the entire market.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.