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2023

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FIRST ON FOX: 2024 presidential candidate Will Hurd is calling for the U.S. to treat cartels and human smugglers like terrorist organizations, as part of a border strategy ‘reboot’ to tackle the ongoing crisis at the southern border.

‘I represented a district that covered the U.S.-Mexico border, so I know first-hand the challenges we face at the border,’ the former congressman says, in a plan obtained first by Fox News Digital. ‘Politicians love to talk about the border crisis, but their inaction on both sides of the aisle speaks louder than their sound bites.’

Hurd’s strategy leads with a plan to treat cartels, human smugglers and drug traffickers like terrorist groups like al Qaeda.

‘I hunted terrorists in the Middle East. We should be hunting them at our borders using the full capabilities of the intelligence community to dismantle their networks in Mexico and the Northern Triangle. We must treat the cartels the same way we treated the Taliban and Al Qaeda: as terrorist organizations that pose a direct national security threat to Americans.’

The U.S. has been facing a years-long migrant crisis at the southern border, which has been exacerbated by the control of Mexican cartels who control much of the Mexican side of the border and facilitate the smuggling of not only migrants but also deadly drugs like fentanyl.

Illicit fentanyl has been at the heart of the opioid epidemic in the U.S. which kills tens of thousands of Americans each year. The drug, which can be fatal in tiny doses and is 50-100 times more potent than morphine, is primarily produced in Mexico using Chinese precursors and then smuggled across the land border.

So far Customs and Border Protection (CBP) have seized 22,000 lbs of the drug so far this fiscal year, compared to 14,000 lbs in FY 2022, and 10,000 lbs in FY ’21. Hurd notes both the deaths in the U.S. and the increased profits of drug cartels, and calls for smuggling of such drugs to be treated like weapons of mass destruction.

‘The smuggling of illegal drugs like opioids must face penalties equivalent to those imposed on terrorists who manufacture, possess, or use a weapon of mass destruction against our citizens,’ he said. 

As well as punishments for those looming at the border, Hurd wants better security at both the southern and northern borders — and notes his past advocacy for the use of sentry towers at the borders.

‘I understand first-hand the need to harness new technology to secure each mile of our border. Further, we must audit the natural impediments that make visual detection more difficult, invest in current points of entry to shore up infrastructure, create new ports of entry to alleviate congestion and enhance security scans, and shore up partnerships with state and local law enforcement through greater investments in Operation Stonegarden,’ he said, referring to a federal grant program for local law enforcement. 

The final part of his plan is to address ‘root causes’ of migration, calling for existing foreign aid programs to target violence, lack of economic opportunity and poverty in those countries from which migrants are coming to the U.S. 

‘It’s a fraction of the cost to solve problems there before they show up here,’ he says. 

The plan is the latest 2024 rollout by the Republican presidential field, where the border and the migrant crisis are looking to remain top issue as numbers of both migrants and fentanyl seizures remain high. 

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., recently visited the border and pledged to finish wall construction. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has promised to ‘stop the invasion’ if elected to the White House, while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has also released her own sweeping border and immigration plan.

Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, visited the border last month and viewed wall construction that began during his administration but was canceled by the Biden administration.

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President Biden has repeatedly defended his son Hunter amid a wave of legal troubles, saying multiple times that he was confident his son has done ‘nothing wrong’ prior to the Justice Department’s appointment of a special counsel to further investigate the matter.

Attorney General Merrick Garland on Friday appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss as special counsel in the Hunter Biden probe, as well as any other matters that may arise from that investigation.

Weiss is the federal prosecutor who has investigated the business dealings of Hunter Biden and brought charges against him in Delaware. His appointment as special counsel indicates that, contrary to Hunter’s defense lawyers’ claims, the Justice Department investigation into Biden’s son is not over.

But Weiss, who many Republicans feel will aide the Biden family in a ‘coverup’ of Hunter Biden’s crimes, announced in July a probation-only plea agreement for Hunter in which he would plead guilty to tax evasion charges. However, U.S. District Court Judge Maryellen Noreika, a Trump appointee, rejected the agreement after expressing several concerns over its provisions.

Republicans criticized the agreement as a ‘sweetheart’ deal and have pursued their own investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings, with an eye towards impeaching the president. 

Despite the investigations, Biden, who took office in January 2021, has maintained that his son is innocent.

Then-candidate Biden insisted during a 2020 Democratic presidential primary debate in 2019 that neither he nor his son did anything ‘wrong’ with regard to Hunter’s past work in Ukraine.

‘My son did nothing wrong. I did nothing wrong,’ Biden said at the time. ‘I carried out the policy of the United States government, which was to root out corruption in Ukraine, and that’s what we should be focusing on.’

Biden was asked by Fox News in 2020, ‘Are you confident your son Hunter did nothing wrong?’

‘I am confident,’ then-candidate Biden said.

In 2020, he also said that Hunter is ‘the smartest guy I know.’

That same year, in December 2020, Biden told ‘Late Show’ host Stephen Colbert that he and his wife, Jill, had ‘great confidence in our son.’

‘I am not concerned about any accusations that have been made against him. It’s used to get to me. I think it’s kind of foul play, but look, it is what it is,’ Biden said at the time.

This year, he was asked in an MSNBC interview about the ongoing DOJ investigation and how it may impact his presidency.

‘First of all, my son has done nothing wrong. I trust him I have faith in him, and it impacts my presidency by making me feel proud of him,’ Biden said in the May interview.

In June, after the news of the plea emerged, the White House issued a brief statement on the matter.

‘The President and first lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life. We will have no further comment,’ spokesperson Ian Sams said.

Talks between federal prosecutors and Hunter’s defense team subsequently broke down after the government acknowledged that he was still under federal investigation.

Garland confirmed Friday that the investigation is still ongoing. In a press release, the Department of Justice said that Weiss will serve as special counsel ‘for the ongoing investigation and prosecutions referenced and described in United States v. Robert Hunter Biden, as well as for any other matters that arose or may arise from that investigation.’

That language leaves open the possibility that other members of the Biden family, potentially even the president, could be part of this investigation. When asked whether President Biden is being investigated as part of this probe, a Department of Justice official declined to comment.

House Judiciary Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, blasted Weiss’ appointment in a statement issued through a spokesman.

‘David Weiss can’t be trusted and this is just a new way to whitewash the Biden family’s corruption. Weiss has already signed off on a sweetheart plea deal that was so awful and unfair that a federal judge rejected it. We will continue to pursue facts brought to light by brave whistleblowers as well as Weiss’s inconsistent statements to Congress,’ said Jordan spokesman Russell Dye.

Fox News’ Brooke Singman, Chris Pandolfo, Adam Shaw, and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The Fed is flying trial balloons about the end of the interest rate hike cycle, but the technology sector is ignoring them as the smart money move to energy continues.

Last week, Philadelphia Fed Governor Patrick Harker, in a Philadelphia speech, suggested the central banks should pause their rate hikes. Moreover, even though the CPI inflation numbers were relatively tame, markets seemed to focus on the more negative details inside the report, such as persistently high rents and car insurance prices.

Interestingly, producer prices (PPI) rose as well, but much of the climb was due to an increase in fees by money managers – hardly a widespread expense as compared to gasoline and food. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is flat and inflation expectations are improving.

Still, money flows in bonds and stocks suggest otherwise. That’s not a good turn of events, if not reversed, especially when the Fed is trying to gauge the market’s response to a potential extended pause on its rate hikes.

As Tech Weakens, New Leaders Appear

Last week in this space, I noted “short sellers are starting to smell blood in the water in the tech sector.” This week, the evidence piled up further as the bloom is wearing off the AI rose, at least for now. You can see that sellers have gained the upper hand as the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has broken below its 50-day moving average, as both Accumulation/Distribution (ADI, increasing short sales) and On Balance Volume (OBV, buyers turning into sellers) have also rolled lower.

But QQQ is not alone. A more focused picture of the selling in AI and robotics-related stocks can be seen in the shares of the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation ETF (ROBO), which has fallen back to what may be long-term support near $54. If ROBO fails to hold in this general area, which features two very large Volume-by-Price bars (VBP) and the 200-day moving average as key markers, the decline will likely accelerate.

A stark example of how rising costs are impacting emerging technology companies was the collapse of solar tech company Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN), whose shares cratered after the company missed its earnings estimates and lowered forward guidance, citing “falling demand” for its products while partially blaming the situation on higher interest rates.

Meanwhile, shares of energy stocks, such as refiner Valero Energy (VLO), continue to power higher as the fuel supply and demand balance is steadily tipping toward the energy patch. This view is supported by the steady downward pace in the weekly oil rig count. There are now 125 fewer active rigs in the U.S. compared to the same period in 2022.

VLO is emerging above a stout resistance shelf, marked by a large cluster of Volume-by-Price (VBP) bars extending back to the $107 area. A move above $140 would likely lead to higher prices in a hurry. I recently discussed how to spot the smart money’s footprints and how to turn them into profits; you can check out the video here.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve asked whether it’s time to sell the tech rally. What should you do with your energy holdings? And what about the homebuilder stocks and the REITs? The answers are in the model portfolios at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com, updated weekly, and via Flash Alerts as needed. You can have a look at all of them and my latest recommendations on what to do with each individual pick FREE with a two week trial subscription. And, for an in-depth review of the current situation in the oil market, homebuilders and REITS, click here.

Bonds, Oil, and Stealth Inflation

The lack of enthusiasm from bond traders about the CPI numbers, quirky PPI numbers and a Fed governor suggesting the central bank may stop raising rates soon suggests there is more going on than meets the eye. The answer may be future inflation related to limited supplies of products and services, which are not likely to increase anytime soon, along with the unknowns about the future of global energy prices.

The U.S. Ten-Year Note yield (TNX) briefly dipped below 4% on the CPI news. But the rally didn’t last. And by week’s end, yields were once again moving toward the higher end of the trading range, which has been in place since October 2022.

More concerning is the lack of interest from bond traders regarding deflationary news from China a day earlier, which suggests the bond market is not a believer in the notion that inflation is slowing to the point where the Fed can stop raising rates.

In the present, you can blame their disbelief on the oil market, where volatile supply data and demand news, combined with ongoing reports that U.S. oil production is being curtailed, is moving prices higher.

Moreover, as evidenced by the action in MAXN, above, it’s becoming evident that the ongoing transfer from traditional energy to renewable energy will be more expensive than initially thought. All of which suggests that inflation is becoming stealthily embedded into the system. When you factor in the expected rise in U.S. Treasury bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury and the increasing budget deficits, the indifference from bond traders makes sense.

In other words, even though CPI may have slowed its gains for now, the bottoming of PPI may be a prelude to the near future. Thus, forward-looking bond traders may be considering future shortages of key minerals, the energy to fuel the transition to clean energy, and tight labor.

Specifically, along with poor demand for solar technology, the bond market may be quietly worried about the ongoing problems in the wind energy industry, where costs are reportedly out of control, to the tune of having climbed 20-40% since February 2022. Meanwhile, reports of major technical problems with turbines continue to plague the industry, while governments are beginning to evaluate how much more money they’re willing to put into subsidies.

NYAD Struggles, Major Indexes Extend Losses

The long-term trend for stocks remains up, but the short term is weakening further. The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD), has broken below its 20-day moving average and may be headed for a test of its 50-day, and perhaps the 200-day, moving averages.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has broken below its 50-day moving average and looks headed for a test of the 15,000 level. Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV), remain weak, as short sellers are active and sellers are overtaking buyers.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remained below 4500, and its 20-day moving average, as it approaches a test of its 50-day moving average. Both ADI and OBV are nowhere near uptrends. Support is now around the 4400 area.

VIX Struggles at 20

I’ve been expecting a move higher in VIX, and it seems to have arrived as the index finally moved above the key 15 resistance level. The good news is that the index has yet to break above 20. A move above 20 would be very negative, as it would signal that the big money is finally throwing in the towel on the uptrend.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity Remains Stable

Liquidity is stable, but may not remain so for long if the current fall in stock prices accelerates. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which recently replaced the Eurodollar Index (XED), but is an approximate sign of the market’s liquidity, just broke to a new high in response to the Fed’s move. A move below 5.0 would be more bullish. A move above 5.5% would signal that monetary conditions are tightening beyond the Fed’s intentions. That would be very bearish.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

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Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

In line with what was anticipated in the previous weekly technical note, the Indian equity markets witnessed profit-taking bouts from higher levels along with spikes in the volatility that is hovering around one of its lowest levels of recent months. It was also expected that the current uptrend might stand disrupted and the markets may slip under corrective consolidation. The trading range again got narrower; against 499 points in the week before this one, the NIFTY oscillated in a 232.75 points range. Though the directional bias on either side was not dominant, the overall move stayed with an inherently negative bias. The headline index closed with a net loss of 88.70 points (-0.45%) on a weekly basis.

Despite slow retracements from the high point, from a technical perspective, the levels of 19991 have now become a temporary top for the markets. The VIX also spiked; despite the on-and-off nature of the move, the volatility as represented by INDIAVIX surged by 8.99% to 11.52. Despite the surge, it remains at one of the lowest levels seen in recent months and continues to leave the market vulnerable to corrective moves and violent profit-taking bouts from higher levels. Following this corrective move, the NIFTY has dragged its resistance lower to 19700-19750 levels; any technical pullbacks will find resistance in this zone.

We have a truncated week coming up with August 15th will be a trading holiday on account of Independence Day. The markets are likely to start the week on a quiet note and exhibit tentative behavior throughout the week. The levels of 19580 and 19650 are likely to act as potential resistance points; the supports will come in at 19350 and 19200 levels.

The weekly RSI is 65.69; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above the signal line. An inside bar occurred; the current bar has a lower high and a higher low as compared to the previous bar.

Going by the pattern analysis and looking from a short-term perspective, a directional move should occur above 19750 or below 19300 levels. Until either of these levels is taken out, expect the markets to continue to consolidate in a defined range.

All and all, some risk-off sentiment is likely to prevail in the markets. The traditionally defensive pockets like Pharma, Consumption, IT, PSE, etc., are likely to display resilient performance. It is strongly recommended to avoid aggressive exposures and stay extremely stock-specific while approaching the markets. While keeping leveraged positions at modest levels, a cautious and selective approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

The analysis of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) shows that Infrastructure Index and PSU Bank Index have rolled inside the leading quadrant. Besides this, the Midcap 100, Realty, and Pharma indices are also placed inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader NIFTY500 Index.

NIFTY Auto, Consumption, and FMCG indices are inside the weakening quadrant. The PSE Index is also inside the weakening quadrant but it is seen improving on its relative momentum.

Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Bank index are seen languishing inside the lagging quadrant. The commodity, IT, and Services sector indices are also inside the lagging quadrant but they appear to be improving on their relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Media, Metal, and Energy indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are seen rotating favorably in the northeast direction and may continue to better their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Far-left ‘Squad’ member Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is demanding the Department of Justice target Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas over his relationship with a Republican megadonor and others she claims he benefited from financially.

In a Friday letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland, Ocasio-Cortez, along with four of her progressive colleagues, called for the DOJ to launch an investigation into Thomas ‘for consistently failing to report significant gifts he received from Harlan Crow and other billionaires for nearly two decades — in defiance of his duty under federal law.’

‘First, Justice Thomas has received numerous undisclosed valuable gifts from Harlan Crow over the course of at least fifteen years, despite certifying repeatedly that his financial disclosure forms are ‘accurate, true, and complete,’ in certifications ‘subject to civil and criminal sanctions,’ the letter read.

The letter cited an April ProPublica investigation that found Thomas’ close friendship with real estate developer Harlan Crow allowed him to accompany the Texas billionaire on luxury vacations on his private jet and yacht, as well as free stays on Crow’s vast vacation property, among other perks.

It went on to accuse Thomas of not recusing himself from cases ‘before the court in which there was potential conflict of interest,’ and later cited other ProPublica investigations about additional gifts Thomas reportedly received from other wealthy individuals.

‘No one is above the law. For two decades, Justice Thomas failed to report millions in gifts. Today, we asked DOJ to investigate Thomas for violating the Ethics of Government Act of 1978. We are joined by Ranking Members [Jerrold] Nadler & [Jamie] Raskin, and Judiciary Members [Ted] Lieu & Hank Johnson,’ Ocastio-Cortez wrote on social media.

In April, Thomas issued a rare statement after the first ProPublica report was published, defending the travel he took with his friends over many years, and explaining that he has always followed Supreme Court guidance.

‘Harlan and Kathy Crow are among our dearest friends, and we have been friends for over twenty-five years,’ Thomas said. ‘As friends do, we have joined them on a number of family trips during the more than quarter-century we have known them.’ 

‘Early in my tenure at the Court, I sought guidance from my colleagues and others in the judiciary, and was advised that this sort of personal hospitality from close personal friends, who did not have business before the Court, was not reportable,’ he added.

Fox News Digital has reached out to a representative of Thomas and the DOJ for comment.

Fox News’ Brianna Herlihy, Shannon Bream and Bill Mears contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A House Democrat is warning artificial intelligence could become a tool of ‘digital colonialism’ if the U.S. doesn’t take steps to work with Western Hemisphere nations to create AI systems that reflect diversity and inclusion.

Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., proposed a resolution during the August break that says the U.S. must champion a ‘regional’ AI strategy that includes Western Hemisphere nations as this new technology is developed.

‘United States-led investments in the development of AI in the Western Hemisphere would promote the inclusion and representation of underserved populations in the global development and deployment of AI technologies, ensuring that no individual country dominates AI but rather collaborative developments in the Western Hemisphere,’ his resolution asserted.

Without naming China, it hints that allowing authoritarian regimes to take the lead on AI standards would only hurt vulnerable populations in the Western Hemisphere.

‘The United States’ future policies for AI governance will have significant implications for the global governance of AI, influencing whether global AI technologies reflect democratic values, inclusivity, and respect for human rights or are influenced by authoritarian practices and norms, including ‘digital colonialism,’ whereby most of the AI advancements utilized by the Western Hemisphere consumers would be developed in, and controlled by, a select few nations located outside of the region,’ it warned.

Espaillat, born in the Dominican Republic, said American efforts to work with the rest of the Western Hemisphere on AI standards would ‘contribute to a more equitable, responsible, and human-centric approach, ensuring the development and deployment of AI technologies that align with democratic principles and societal well-being.’

‘By championing inclusion in AI and investing in AI in the Western Hemisphere, the United States can create a future where AI technologies authentically reflect the multifaceted diversity of our societies, uphold the fundamental human rights that lie at the core of our Constitution, and contribute to the realization of a world that transcends inequalities rather than perpetuates them,’ the resolution said.

‘The Western Hemisphere possesses a wealth of natural resources and a skilled human workforce, making it well-positioned to develop and promote future AI technologies that prioritize safety, diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility,’ it added.

It warned more broadly that AI has the potential to be developed in a way that reinforces ‘biases and inequities.’ Others have made the same argument – that AI systems run on data that is either biased or interpreted in a biased way can lead to outcomes that discriminate against what Espaillat and others call ‘marginalized groups.’

Espaillat’s resolution said recent research shows some AI algorithms can worsen ‘race-based disparities,’ such as those used in facial recognition programs.

‘Research conducted by respected institutions such as the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cornell University, and others has shown that these algorithms exhibit significant accuracy disparities, working more effectively on White faces while frequently misidentifying or failing to recognize brown, Black, Indigenous, and darker skinned faces,’ it warned.

It’s not clear Espaillat’s resolution will get a vote in the GOP-led House where it was introduced. However, the Biden administration has launched several initiatives aimed at developing safe and trustworthy AI systems that avoid biased outcomes as they are used.

Last month, seven major AI developers agreed to a set of White House goals in this area, and the Biden White House has said it is working on more AI guidance.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

On August 10, I appeared on CNBC Asia to discuss Alibaba (BABA)’s surprise beat on earnings and China’s weak economic data.

I began the segment reminding investors (and myself) that regardless of the news, opinions of analysts and the talking heads, price pays. It is with that in mind that I mention the following:

Alibaba reported sales up 14% along with their improved margins.Biden banned US firms from investing in China, while China buys $5 billion chips from Nvidia (NVDA) for use in AI. These chips are designed in the US, made in Taiwan and South Korea.China’s deflationary numbers come vastly from falling pork prices and transportation costs; this will not necessarily impact global inflation.The jobless rate of youth has risen to alarming numbers.China can print money, thereby adding liquidity if necessary and most likely will do so.

The chart of FXI, also featured on The Final Bar with Dave Keller (watch below) indicates that the price, which failed the July 6-month calendar range high on Friday, fell into support. On Thursday, the price sat on the July 6-month Calendar range high. In the clips, we say that FXI must clear $29.00.

The Real Motion indicator, even with the drop in momentum, remains in a bullish divergence, as the moving averages are stacked with the 50 over the 200-DMA. The price chart that has yet to happen. The Leadership also switched from FXI outperforming the SPY to underperforming. Nonetheless, you can now watch momentum, leadership, calendar ranges and price as a guide for a potential investment.

BABA did better than FXI on Friday. The phase is bullish. Price is doing a bit better than momentum. BABA is outperforming the SPY. Hence, this week we will look for a move back over the July 6-month calendar range high (97.04).

I will be off for a few days. Enjoy, and remember…

Price pays!

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish discusses Alibaba’s stock price in this appearance on CNBC Asia.

In this guest appearance on David Keller’s The Final Bar on StockCharts TV, talks higher rates and why China may deserve a second look for investors.

Mish discusses inflation, bonds, calendar ranges and places to park your money on the Benzinga Morning Prep show.

Mish covers why August is a good time for caution in this appearance on Business First AM.

Ahead of Thursday’s critical US CPI update, Mish highlights the possible opportunities in the Wednesday, August 9 trading session for the S&P 500 and three key commodities on CMC Markets.

In this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne, Mish and Charles cover Fed, oil and gas, and some picks for a manufacturing boom.

Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss market in correction, oil concerns, and some new picks on TD Ameritrade.

Mish runs the rule over the S&P 500 and key commodities in this video from CMC Markets.

Mish gives reasons why gold could return as a safe haven on Business First AM.

Mish talks about opportunities related to EVs in this video from Business First AM.

Mish and Jared go over oil and what might happen with small caps and regional banks in this appearance on Yahoo! Finance.

Coming Up:

August 17: Wolf Financial Spaces 1pm ET, Real Vision Daily Briefing 4pm ET

August 28: Chuck Jaffe, Money Show

September 7: Singapore Breakfast Radio, 89.3 FM

October 29-31: The Money Show

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 450 pivotal, 440 support at the 50-DMA.Russell 2000 (IWM): 191 is the 23-month holy grail, 194 July 6-month range high.Dow (DIA): 35,000 support.Nasdaq (QQQ): 362-382 range.Regional Banks (KRE): 48 pivotal.Semiconductors (SMH): 150 now the place to get back above.Transportation (IYT): July 6-month calendar range high at 259.30 and 254 some support.Biotechnology (IBB): Compression between 123-130.Retail (XRT): 66-67.40 short-term range (closing levels matter).

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

The Consumer Price Index hit 3.2% in July, compared with 3% in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

Once again, food prices were among the largest contributors to last month’s increase. Food at home prices increased 3.6% over the past 12 months, while food away from home, like at restaurants, increased 7.1% over that period.

Other large annual increases were seen in shelter prices, up 7.7%; while transportation services — like airfares — were up 9%.

How did everything get to be so expensive and will prices ever come down again?

The good news is that price increases have already drifted downward from the heights we experienced just last summer. At one point, year-over-year inflation had reached 9.1%, the highest rate of price increases for goods and services since the early 1980s.

But overall, prices for some goods and services have steadily increased over the course of the pandemic years. The evidence was front and center, as seen in the price of eggs, ground beef, gasoline, used cars, electricity and rent.

And while economists say the prices of some goods and services have started to retreat from their post-pandemic highs, the U.S. is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic price levels — what some may think of as ‘normal’ prices — any time soon.

‘It’s a very long journey from the peak inflation rates we saw just a year ago,’ said Mike Pugliese, director and senior economist at Wells Fargo. ‘We are pretty unlikely to see outright deflation unless we get a very severe recession,’ he added.

That deflation he mentioned — a decrease in prices and an increase in consumer spending power — may sound like a good thing, but it can have a negative impact on the economy. As prices fall, people tend to hold off on purchases in the hopes they can get things even cheaper at a later time. But what tends to happen in that scenario is that companies struggle with the slowdown in sales and workers can lose their jobs as a result.

How did we get here?

At the outset of the inflation surge, economists laid out what was at stake: The combined effects of the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine were disrupting supply chains, reducing the ability of businesses to deliver goods in a timely manner and with sufficient volumes — thus, prices for many things went up.

Later, it became clear the impact of pandemic-related fiscal stimulus payments, pent-up spending and low interest rates had unleashed a wave of demand for goods and services that was also putting upward pressure on prices.

Finally, a worker shortage — the result of Covid effects that led to direct long-term illnesses for workers, departures from the labor force to care for loved ones and outright retirements — has raised the cost of labor.

Indeed, the current share of the population participating in the labor force is lower than pre-pandemic levels — something that has continued to make the cost of hiring workers more expensive.

‘We still have a lot of vacancies to fill,’ said Julia Pollak, chief economist at the job search company, ZipRecruiter.

All this has led to unexpectedly strong economic growth — and thus inflation. When households can count on having steady earnings, she said, ‘they’re happy to keep spending, buy clothes, book airfare and go to restaurants.’

Expecting consumers to keep spending gives businesses the green light to keep raising prices. Or as Pugliese puts it: ‘It’s a little bit circular.’

What can be done to stop the cycle?

By raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, is hoping to make things so expensive that businesses and consumers capitulate and reduce their spending.

Federal Reserve officials and other economists have given recent indications that the chances of cutting interest rates this year are not likely and that, if anything, more rate hikes may be necessary.

Remember that, as of right now, interest rates are already the highest they’ve been in 20 years.

“We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled,” Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this week.

‘A more inflationary economy could end up necessitating higher real and nominal policy rates,’ economists with Citibank wrote in a note to clients this week.

But as a result of that initial burst of federal stimulus and ultralow interest rates back in the early months of the pandemic, the economy has become much less sensitive to interest rate hikes, said Jeremy Schwartz, an economist at the financial services group Nomura.

Compare that with the global financial crisis, when products like adjustable-rate mortgages were more widespread and many households were far less financially secure.

‘Households and businesses have proven resilient,’ Schwartz said.

A surefire cure to all this is higher unemployment: Fewer earners means less spending means less upward pressure on prices.

Andrew Patterson, senior international economist at Vanguard financial services group, says the unemployment rate may have to rise a full percentage point, from its current level of 3.5% to 4.5% — to get there.

‘It’s not something we’re hoping for,’ he said. ‘But we need to see the labor market softening.’

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With the help of technology, scammers are tricking Americans out of more money than ever before. But there are steps you can take to keep your money and information safe.

In 2022, reported consumer losses to fraud totaled $8.8 billion — a 30 percent increase from 2021, according to the most recent data from the Federal Trade Commission. The biggest losses were to investment scams, including cryptocurrency schemes, which cost people more than $3.8 billion, double the amount in 2021.

Younger adults ages 20-29 reported losing money more often than older adults ages 70-79, the FTC found. But when older adults did lose money, they lost more. Many retirees have assets like savings, pensions, life insurance policies or property for scammers to target.

With the rise of the digital economy, scammers now reach targets by social media and text, as well as phone and email. Online payment platforms, apps, and marketplaces have also increased opportunities. Still, many of their tactics and strategies are similar.

“The first thing they’ll do is get you into a heightened emotional state, because we can’t access clear thinking when we’re in that state,” said Kathy Stokes, director of fraud prevention for the AARP’s Fraud Watch Network. “It could be fear, panic, or excitement — ‘I just won a million dollars from Publishers Clearing House.’”

Once the sense of urgency is established, the target’s defenses are down.

“When approached with urgency, give it an extra three-second pause,” said Amanda Clayman, a financial therapist who works with digital payment network Zelle around issues of fraud. “When someone is trying to get us to take action quickly, that’s usually a red flag indicating we should do the opposite.”

Here’s what else to know to keep your money and information safe:

What are some common scams?

Simply being aware of typical scams can help, experts say. Robocalls in particular frequently target vulnerable individuals like seniors, people with disabilities, and people with debt.

“If you get a robocall out of the blue paying a recorded message trying to get you to buy something, just hang up,” aid James Lee, chief operating officer at the Identity Theft Resource Center. “Same goes for texts — anytime you get them from a number you don’t know asking you to pay, wire, or click on something suspicious.”

Lee urges consumers to hang up and call the company or institution in question at an official number.

Scammers will also often imitate someone in authority, such as a tax or debt collector. They might pretend to be a loved one calling to request immediate financial assistance for bail, legal help, or a hospital bill.

Romance scams

So-called “romance scams” often target lonely and isolated individuals, according to Will Maxson, assistant director of the Division of Marketing Practices at the FTC. These scams can take place over longer periods of time — even years.

Kate Kleinart, 70, who lost tens of thousands to a romance scam over several months, said to be vigilant if a new Facebook friend is exceptionally good-looking, asks you to download WhatsApp to communicate, attempts to isolate you from friends and family, and/or gets romantic very quickly.

“If you’re seeing that picture of a very handsome person, ask someone younger in your life — a child, a grandchild, a niece or a nephew — to help you reverse-image search or identify the photo,” she said.

She said the man in pictures she received was a plastic surgeon from Spain whose photos have been stolen and used by scammers.

Kleinart had also been living under lockdown during the early pandemic when she got the initial friend request, and the companionship and communication meant a lot to her while she was cut off from family. When the scam fell apart, she missed the relationship even more than the savings.

“Losing the love was worse than losing the money,” she said.

What should I do about text and email scams?

“I think anyone who has participated in the digital economy has received multiple attempts daily that have some sort of scheme, whether that’s, ‘Your account has been locked’ or ‘Your package delivery is delayed,’” Lee said. “Again — just take a breath — and verify.”

Lee urges people never to click an unusual link in a text or email, and instead go to the site in question directly, or call the number listed on the official site.

“It’ll take 30 or 40 seconds longer, but go ahead and do that because it could save you a lot of money every time,” he said.

Some indications to be extra wary could include an unrecognized sender, unusual wording, or a tell-tale misspelling.

In 2022, consumers lost more than $326 million from scam texts alone, according to the Federal Trade Commission.

What are other common red flags?

Gift cards. Both Maxson and Lee said any mention of payment with gift cards should be a blaring warning alarm.

Kleinart, who experienced the romance scam, was also initially asked to send money via gift cards, with varied explanations.

“Just don’t pay people with gift cards,” Maxson said. “No legitimate company or individual is going to ask you to buy large quantities of gift cards and then read the numbers off the cards. That is exclusively a payment method of fraudsters.”

“Let me tell you, the IRS does not accept gift cards,” Lee said. “But you’d be surprised by the number of people who fall for people calling from ‘fill in the blank agency’ or ‘fill in the blank company’ and who send $500 worth of gift cards.”

What about social media scams?

In addition to romance scams like the one Kleinart fell victim to, here’s what to know about other common social media scams:

Investment scams

According to Lois Greisman, an associate director of marketing practices at the FTC, an investment scam constitutes any get-rich-quick scheme that lures targets via social media accounts or online ads.

Investment scammers typically add different forms of “testimony,” such as from other social media accounts, to support that the “investment” works. Many of these also involve cryptocurrency. To avoid falling for these frauds, the FTC recommends independently researching the company — especially by searching the company’s name along with terms like “review” or “scam.”

Quiz scams

When you’re using Facebook or scrolling Google results, be aware of quiz scams, which typically appear innocuous and ask about topics you might be interested in, such as your car or favorite TV show. They may also ask you to take a personality test.

Despite these benign-seeming questions, scammers can then use the personal information you share to respond to security questions from your accounts or hack your social media to send malware links to your contacts.

To protect your personal information, the FTC simply recommends steering clear of online quizzes. The commission also advises consumers to use random answers for security questions.

“Asked to enter your mother’s maiden name? Say it’s something else: Parmesan or another word you’ll remember,” advises Terri Miller, consumer education specialist at the FTC. “This way, scammers won’t be able to use information they find to steal your identity.”

Marketplace scams

When buying or selling products on Instagram or Facebook Marketplace, keep in mind that not everyone that reaches out to you has the best intentions.

To avoid being scammed when selling via an online platform, the FTC recommends checking buyers’ profiles, not sharing any codes sent to your phone or email, and avoiding accepting online payments from unknown persons.

Likewise, when buying something from an online marketplace, make sure to diligently research the seller. Take a look at whether the profile is verified, what kind of reviews they have, and the terms and conditions of the purchase.

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Customers of a bank linked to Walmart are reporting they are still blocked from accessing their funds, leaving them in desperate financial straits.

Green Dot banking group customers say they have gone days, and in some cases weeks, with holds on their accounts. Green Dot also operates under the name Go2Bank and furnishes deposit and debit card services to Walmart customers.

Florida resident Mary Cannon said she’s still having trouble. Cannon has been unable to access her IRS tax refund of more than $7,000 since mid-July. She said there remains a suspicious-activity hold on her account that she believes is erroneous and that she has been unable to resolve with the bank.

“They giving me the runaround,” she said.

On Thursday, Green Dot displayed a message on its homepage saying it was experiencing high call volumes due to ‘an issue with one of our processing partners,’ adding that “some functionality, including balances and transactions, may have been impacted.”

After an inquiry from NBC News, a Green Dot spokesperson said in an email that there was no system or platform outage, and subsequently updated the message on its website.

That message no longer mentions a functionality issue, but says the bank is still experiencing high call volumes and that customers should try logging into their accounts via mobile or web to check balances or transactions, ‘or check back later when call volumes and wait times are lower.’

Tennessee resident Sara Morgan has also been unable to access funds from, or make purchases through, her account for six days and counting.

‘I’m beyond stressed,’ she said in an email. ‘[I’m] having to pay bills with credit cards. I don’t see how they can get away with not having alternative access for people to get their money.’

UpDownRadar.com, which tracks web outages, was filled with customer complaints Friday, many of whom said they cannot access their funds. NBC News has not independently verified those claims.

The online-only Green Dot is a subsidiary of the Austin, Texas-based Green Dot Corp.

“With over 20 years in business & millions of satisfied customers, you can feel confident with Green Dot,” Walmart says on one of its webpages.

A Walmart representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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