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SALEM, N.H. – Former President Trump is not joining any of his dozen rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in hitting the campaign trail on Labor Day.

The former president does not have to.

With four and a half months to go until the Iowa caucuses kick off the 2024 GOP presidential nominating calendar, Trump is leagues ahead of his challengers in the latest national polling and crucial early state surveys.

Trump’s lead expanded over the spring and summer as he made history as the first former or current president in American history to be indicted for a crime. Trump’s four indictments – including in federal court in Washington D.C. and in Fulton County court in Georgia on charges he tried to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss – have only fueled his support among Republican voters.

Trump stands at 59% support in the latest national poll in the GOP nomination race, a Wall Street Journal survey conducted Aug. 24-30. He held a gigantic 46-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, – who at 13% was slightly ahead of the rest of the field of contenders, all who registered in the single digits.

The most recent Fox News national poll, conducted in early August, indicated Trump had a 37-point lead.

While not as large, Trump still enjoys commanding double-digit leads over his rivals in the latest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, which holds the first primary in the GOP nominating calendar and votes second after the Hawkeye State.

‘We’ve always firmly believed that President Trump would be the clear and away front-runner in this race and once he started to campaign and travel around the country and engage with voters that it would be clear that he’s in the driver’s seat,’ a top Trump campaign adviser, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, told Fox News this summer.

However, compared to his rivals, Trump’s campaign schedule has been sparse. He last hit the trail Aug. 12 as he briefly greeted voters at the Iowa State Fair.

A factor in his light campaign dance card is that his schedule is being consumed by the criminal charges he faces in his four cases – each in separate jurisdictions.

‘I’m sorry, I won’t be able to go to Iowa today, I won’t be able to go to New Hampshire today because I’m sitting in a courtroom on bulls—,’ he said during a rally in New Hampshire in early August.

Trump’s dominance over his rivals is illustrated in more than just polls. He is also putting up some robust fundraising figures, courtesy of his legal troubles.

As Fox News first reported, Trump hauled in $9.4 million in less than a week after he surrendered to authorities in Atlanta in the Georgia election interference case and had his mug shot taken. The photo was instantly featured on T-shirts, mugs and posters, fueling fundraising. Trump’s campaign touted that in total, they raked in over $20 million in August.

Trump is also dominating coverage of the GOP nomination race with his trips to courthouses in New York, Miami, Washington and Atlanta receiving wall-to-wall coverage on the cable news networks and online.

Campaign aides tell Fox News the former president’s schedule will likely pick up in the coming weeks – starting with a stop on Friday in South Dakota, where he will team up with an ally and potential 2024 running-mate, conservative Gov. Kristi Noem.

Later in September, Trump is set to speak at the California GOP convention.

While Trump is currently lapping the field, a veteran Republican strategist says the race is far from over.

Longtime New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Jim Merrill, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns who is neutral in the 2024 nomination race, noted that ‘Donald Trump is king of the hill right now.’

However, Merrill noted that ‘there are a lot of candidates who are working really hard up here and what I’m seeing is that there’s an awful lot of interest in the candidates as they’re going around the state, holding town halls, doing parades. You’re seeing big crowds and interested voters.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Texas sent a 12th bus filled with migrants to Los Angeles, which arrived Monday morning nearly a week after city leaders voted to pursue legal action against the Lone Star State.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass’s office said the bus arrived at about 7:15 a.m. on Monday at Union Station.

FOX 11 in L.A. reported that the bus was carrying migrants, including 23 men, 20 women and 21 children, all from Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Russia and Venezuela.

‘The city has continued to work with city departments, the county and a coalition of nonprofit organizations, in addition to our faith partners, to execute a plan set in place earlier this year,’ said Zach Seidle, the city’s deputy mayor of communications and spokesperson for the mayor. ‘As we have before, when we became aware of the bus yesterday, we activated our plan.’

The bus arrived nearly a week after the Los Angeles City Council voted unanimously to pursue a lawsuit and criminal probe against Texas over its migrant bussing program.

Council members requested the city attorney’s office investigate whether Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has committed crimes through the program and whether the lawsuit is justified.

Abbott’s program has delivered a total of 435 migrants to L.A. since buses started arriving on June 14. In total, the program has sent more than 30,000 migrants to Democrat-led cities across the U.S., including New York City, Chicago and Washington, D.C.

In a statement to Fox News Digital last Thursday, Abbott’s office highlighted L.A.’s status as a sanctuary city as a reason to send migrants there, adding that migrants on the buses sign a multi-language consent waiver that shows their destination.

‘The LA City Council members are complete hypocrites,’ Abbott spokesperson Andrew Mahaleris said in the statement. ‘In June, they unanimously voted to become a sanctuary city, welcoming migrants to the city. Texas began busing migrants to sanctuary cities like Los Angeles last year to provide relief to our overrun and overwhelmed border communities.’

‘Instead of complaining about dealing with a fraction of the border crisis our small border towns deal with every day, the City Council should call on President Biden to take immediate action to secure the border – something the President continues failing to do,’ he added.

L.A. City Council members approved a motion on June 9 to formally establish the city as a sanctuary city.

Abbott has continued to orchestrate the trips because Texas’s border region is ‘overwhelmed’ with immigrants who cross the Mexican border illegally.

Anders Hagstrom of Fox News Digital contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Seven months after a train derailed in eastern Ohio, there are still questions over just how damaging the accident was to the East Palestine community.

Thousands of residents were forced to evacuate their homes after train cars spilled toxic chemicals. Emergency response teams decided to release and burn the materials to prevent the tank cars from exploding. 

The clean-up from the event is still ongoing, and some Ohio lawmakers and residents say the effort has taken too long.

‘They’re frustrated. They’re certainly frustrated by the pace of the cleanup,’ Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, said. ‘Of course, we’re still dealing with the economic devastation… declining home values. Small businesses had to shut down for the next five years. So there’s a lot of worry and a lot of frustration. But I think that we’ve got to keep at it.’

Ohio’s state Senate minority leader, Nickie Antonio, a Democrat, says residents she has spoken with are appreciative of the help they have received thus far from Norfolk Southern and government officials, but they hope that assistance stays there for as long as they need it. 

‘They want to make sure that people are there for the long haul. And we don’t know how long that’s going to be,’ Antonio said.

She visited the site in May and met with residents and those working to clean up the area. 

‘When you ask the folks on the ground why it’s taking so long, they say that they’re trying to be as thorough as possible,’ Antonio said. ‘My hope is that that’s true. It’s a very big area that they’re addressing. And it was a catastrophic event.’

Vance has met with residents in East Palestine several times since the derailment happened in February. Shortly after the event, he posted a video online from Leslie Run Creek showing what appeared to be chemicals in the water. 

Since then, sampling and monitoring is still taking place at that location and others. The EPA administrator has also advised the public should avoid those creeks.

‘The only thing I know is that the clean-up continues,’ Vance said. ‘They’re taking toxic water out of the creek bed, putting it in these vats. Hopefully over time the creek will get cleaner. But if you talk to residents on the ground, they still are worried that if they go spend too much time in the creek, maybe they’ll start to feel some symptoms.’

One of the major concerns for residents has been whether drinking water in East Palestine is safe. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency says on its website, ‘There is no indication of risk to East Palestine Public Water customers.’ 

However, it cautions that anyone who uses well water should have it tested before drinking it. Some independent testing has recorded possible contaminants in some drinking water.

‘I think the inconsistencies with those testing reports lead to people… using a lot of caution,’ Antonio said. ‘In the long run, I think that testing needs to continue and to a point where conclusive evidence shows that the water is safe. I don’t think they have conclusive evidence right now.’

Vance agrees and says while city water testing has been reassuring, a lot of work needs to be done to make sure the well water is safe.

‘These chemicals take a while to seep into the water supply. Once they’re there, they’re there for a long time. We’re going to be testing the water in East Palestine for the next six years,’ Vance said. ‘There are resources out there to get people clean water. They should not be forced to drink dirty water, even if they’re just worried about it.’

Norfolk Southern estimates its response to the derailment will cost at least $803 million. That money will be used to remove hazardous chemicals from the area but does not include funds to compensate the community for any long-term health effects. Ohio lawmakers are calling on the federal government to help out. Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has sent a request to the Biden administration for a disaster declaration, which so far has not been addressed.

‘Only the president can do it. It shows complete negligence,’ Vance said. ‘I think that he sees this community not as a Biden community, and therefore he’s not doing anything for it. It is shameful conduct. When you’re the president, you serve the people no matter who they voted for. And East Palestine deserves much better from their government.’

Vance and others have also criticized President Biden for not visiting East Palestine.

‘There is no chance in hell that if the president of the United States saw this community as a community that supported him, saw it as foundational for his re-election prospects, that he would be ignoring it in the way that he has,’ Vance explained. ‘I don’t see any other explanation other than it is political.’

Antonio disagrees that the president’s actions are political, but she does hope he eventually visits the community.

‘I have not seen the response be partisan. I have seen the response be about the people of East Palestine and the first responders and the residents. I think too often it’s an easy deflection to go right to partisan politics. I don’t think that’s the case here,’ Antonio said. ‘I will say that I do hope that the president visits at some point, because I think it would be important for the people of East Palestine and the people in the state of Ohio to see our commander in chief on the ground, to see the work that’s been done so far, and perhaps to have that consideration for the emergency declaration. So I hope he does come.’ 

President Biden said in March that he would visit East Palestine. So far, that has not happened. He said over the weekend he hasn’t had the occasion to go and that ‘there’s a lot going on.’

Former President Trump is the only presidential candidate to visit the East Palestine site.

‘We’re going to find time to come back if necessary. If they don’t come back and give you the treatment that you need, we will be back,’ Trump said during his February visit.

He has not yet returned to the area. Both he and President Biden have praised a bipartisan railroad safety bill from Vance and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

‘It would give proper notice to the firefighters who are dealing with these hazardous materials. You get firefighters who are dealing with a chemical fire in East Palestine. They had no idea what was on the train,’ Vance said.

One local fire chief in East Palestine said his crew waited 45 minutes before knowing what chemicals were on the train.

‘That’s got to change,’ Vance said. ‘The second thing is it would increase the safety inspection requirements so that these string crashes happen less frequently in the first place.’

An average of around three train derailments happened per day in 2022. While most of those were not major events, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say more needs to be done.

‘Providing a higher level of rail safety is absolutely imperative. And that’s a bipartisan issue,’ Antonio said.

Both Antonio and Vance hope the East Palestine community continues to receive the help it needs.

‘You’re not forgotten and you’re never going to be forgotten by me,’ Vance said. ‘I can’t do my job if we can’t hold Norfolk Southern’s feet to the fire and we can’t get Washington, D.C., to wake up unless we’re hearing their stories.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Hello to all my StockCharts supporters! First of all, thank you for your readership of my Trading Places blog, which is now in its 8th year. Also, thanks to all of you that watch my Trading Places LIVE shows that air on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays at 9:00am ET. I really appreciate your loyalty and support!

Today, we launched a new “EB Weekly Market Report” product that will be published every week on Sundays (occasionally Mondays) and will be made available as part of our regular service. There is no increased membership cost as a result of this new product. I am providing our first edition of this new weekly report below, so that you can get a sense of the in-depth analysis and research that we do at EarningsBeats.com. If you like the report, please take advantage of our 30-day FREE trial and try out all of our services for the next month, including the next four editions of this EB Weekly Market Report. September can be a cruel month, so get our latest thoughts as we navigate what historically has been a very difficult month.

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Below is our first EB Weekly Market Report, which will be published on either Sunday or Monday of every week. It will replace our Monday EB Daily Market Report and provide all of our members with a broader “Big Picture” outlook on the U.S. stock market. Our market outlook will focus more on longer-term weekly charts, as opposed to the daily charts more often used in our EB Daily Market Report. We believe it enhances our current product lineup and appeals to everyone – those with a longer-term mindset and those focused primarily on the near-term.

Because of our “top-down” approach to trading, it makes a lot of sense to begin each week with a Big Picture focus, citing the current long-term technical outlook and how that might impact the market given our short-term signals that we discuss daily. This EB Weekly Market Report will also provide a consistent, once-per-week review at key sentiment and intermarket relationships that we value so highly at EarningsBeats.com and has helped us to guide our members through a very tumultuous 3-4 year period, beginning with the 2020 pandemic, right through the most recent 2022 cyclical bear market and subsequent secular bull market advance.

We’ll also review the prior week’s action and provide trade setups, but mostly with a longer-term mindset – think of longer-term swing trading, which should appeal to those of you that like the idea of longer-term momentum trading, providing wider stops and targets.

Let’s get started with our very first edition of our EB Weekly Market Report, beginning with the action from last week.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

While we saw strength across most areas of the U.S. stock market last week, small and mid caps did show leadership. For this leadership to continue, it’ll be important to see consistent strength from industrials, financials, health care, and energy as these are important sectors weighted heavier in the IWM than what we see in the benchmark S&P 500. For mid caps (MDY), industrials comprise 22.4% of the entire ETF, followed by consumer discretionary and financials.

Sectors

Clearly, there was some rotation last week away from growth and into value, though growth still performed fairly well, as evidenced by the leadership in technology. The best period of the year for growth vs. value is May through August, though the first 4 months of the year are relatively strong as well. However, we’ve seen historical bullishness from value stocks vs. growth stocks during the final 4 months of the year, starting with September. We’ve had a big run in technology and other growth areas, so repositioning now into more value and less growth makes sense for many.

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Both home construction and semiconductors have had HUGE runs in 2023 and have helped to lead U.S. stocks higher, but both will sport MAJOR negative divergences on their weekly charts should they reach new highs any time soon. Check these out:

You can see what’s happened in the past when home construction stocks reach a weekly PPO of 7.5 (red-shaded area). It doesn’t necessarily result in a massive selloff, but we should certainly lower our expectations bar, given how much this group has run. And if the DJUSHB breaks out again, it’ll likely be accompanied by a massive negative divergence. Remember, it’s not always about being right or wrong, it’s about managing risk. I see a TON of risk in this chart and one of the weakest calendar months for this group since this secular bull market began in 2013 is September. Maybe we see a September swoon with a later rally in October and November. November is the group’s best month, rising EVERY year in November since 2013 and averaging a 6.2% gain in that month alone.

I believe we’re in a secular bull market and we’re going higher. So it PAINS me to think any bearish thoughts about one of my favorite industry groups. But history doesn’t lie. The charts don’t lie. Semiconductors have been a clear leader – not only during this advance in 2023, but also throughout the entire secular bull market run. I could argue, however, that this group has not been this overbought since the secular bull market began. I’ve highlighted 5 times (including right now) the DJUSSC has seen its weekly RSI move to the mid-70s or higher with black-dotted vertical lines. I’ve also highlighted that the current weekly PPO had never reached 10 – until the 2023 surge. I LOVE this group, but it needs a period of consolidation BADLY. While I won’t say it can’t go higher in the short-term from here, I absolutely would not be surprised at all to see it fall into a period of consolidation, similar to what we’ve seen in the past when it becomes so overbought.

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

One signal that can scare me is when I see defensive areas of the stock market lead during an advance. Needless to say, I feel very comfortable with last week’s rally as the Bottom 10 industries is LITTERED with defensive groups. When I look at these groups on a longer-term weekly chart, I believe health care providers ($DJUSHP) is one group that could be poised to reverse. Recreational services ($DJUSRQ) is another. Take a look:

Health care providers have been in a solid channel throughout this secular bull market, interrupted only by the 2020 pandemic scare. Otherwise, the channel is almost perfect. Notice where we are right now, testing the lower channel line. These tend to be the absolute best long-term entry points. Also, the green-dotted vertical lines mark the PPO trips and bottoms deep into negative territory. I typically like momentum trades, including areas that are rising. But I’d have to say, from a longer-term perspective, buying stocks in areas testing critical support would likely be a better trading opportunity for many of you, especially those of you that don’t like to chase, but would rather buy at or near bottoms. One final thought. Seasonally, the best two-consecutive-month period for health care providers is easily October-November, which is right around the corner.

Ordinarily, I’d be concerned about a group where its weekly PPO just touched 10. However, we have seen a pullback to the rising 20-week EMA that’s helped to relieve those overbought conditions. Also, let’s keep in mind this group was tortured during the 2020 pandemic. Even after the huge recent advance, the group is still down more than 40% from its pre-pandemic high. I’m looking for a rebound off this rising 20-week EMA test. If I break down this group’s historical performance by quarter since 2013, here’s what it looks like:

Jan-Mar: -1.2%Apr-Jun: +1.0%Jul-Sep: +2.3%Oct-Dec: +7.7%

We’re moving into the sweet spot of the year for recreational services.

Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture – September 2023

It all starts here. When I talk about “perspective” with respect to the U.S. stock market, this chart is the poster child. The first thing we must all understand when we approach stock trading is whether we’re in a SECULAR bull market or SECULAR bear market. During each, we often see countertrend CYCLICAL bear markets and CYCLICAL bull markets, respectively. But, if you want to achieve a higher success rate trading stocks, it’s imperative that you get this first step right. With long-term perspective, you can see short-term volatility and countertrend moves much more clearly and BEFORE they happen. Without that long-term perspective, your short-term view can get very cloudy and, unfortunately, very emotional. Emotional trading leads to BIG losses. We need to trade and invest with CLARITY and CONFIDENCE to understand the next LIKELY move in U.S. stocks.

Here’s what I’m seeing when I pull up my 100-year chart on the S&P 500:

September Update:

We can talk about different signals on this chart, but for today, let’s focus on those two bottom panels – the long-term 120-month rate of change (ROC) and the 240-month ROC. These represent 10-year and 20-year “look back” periods to see how far the S&P 500 has run over those two time frames. In the 120-month ROC, the 1950s-1960s SECULAR bull market saw an ROC high of just over 300%. The 1980s-1990s SECULAR bull market reached above 350%. The current 2010s-2020s SECULAR bull market nearly touched 300%, but remains slightly beneath the prior two SECULAR bull markets in terms of a 10-year ROC. So for those that have screamed this bull market has run too much, I’d direct you to this chart, which clearly reflects this has been a more subdued secular bull market (at least during the first 10 years) than the previous two.

You need to remember one thing about historical SECULAR bull markets. They tend to last 20 years, not 10. And the bottom panel shows us the 20-year ROC. In the 50s and 60s, we topped close to 750%. In the 80s and 90s, that top was closer to 1400%. The current SECULAR bull market has another 10 years to run. Where might this 20-year ROC reach? That’s the exciting part and one reason why I believe we’ll see the S&P 500 perhaps 3x the level we’re at right now. Yes, that’s right. I’m calling for an S&P 500 that likely reaches 12000-15000 by the end of this decade or into the early part of the 2030s. We are in one of those secular bull market periods that you CANNOT rebound from if you don’t take advantage of it when it occurs. I fully suspect history will repeat itself and that much of the 2030s and 2040s will be VERY difficult for U.S. equities – much like the 2000s, 1970s, and 1930s/1940s were.

One other piece of this chart to note is the monthly PPO. I’ve highlighted the secular bull market years in blue shading. Any time we see a correction or a cyclical bear market, we see the monthly PPO dip down close to or perhaps touch the zero line. When we begin to turn higher off of that centerline test, we historically have seen very significant stock market advances that have lasted YEARS, not weeks or months. IGNORE the media and all their BS headlines and stick to the technical signals on the charts.

Currently, it’s ALL ABOARD the Northbound Train (with pitstops along the way, of course).

Major Indices

This week, let’s look at the 10-year weekly chart on the S&P 500:

We are in a beautiful channel that began off the financial crisis low of 2009. That low, along with the 2020 pandemic low, were “fire sale” lows, triggered by extreme pessimism. They serve as very important lows in our current uptrend. I believe the ONLY way this line is tested is if we hit another period of EXTREME pessimism and panic. I really don’t see anything on the horizon that would trigger such a selloff. A possible event might be a surge in inflation, with the Fed hitting the accelerator on rate hikes, maybe announcing 50-basis-point or 75-basis-point rate hikes, taking the fed funds rate well over 5-6%. While anything is possible, I certainly wouldn’t invest my money based on this long shot. Inflation has been trending lower for months and there is absolutely no sign of this possibility on the charts. Wall Street has not and is not turning defensive right now. Therefore, I say stick with the long side as the weekly chart corroborates that Big Picture 100-year monthly chart.

When we become stretched in this current channel (red circles), testing the upper channel line, that’s the time to be thinking caution again. Each of those prior red circles has triggered an ensuing period of consolidation/selling to take price back down to or near the middle, blue-dotted trendline. We have plenty of upside available before we’ll need to worry about that.

Sentiment

Equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE):

I use two primary CPCE signals, one short-term (speed boat) and the other long-term (ocean-liner). The stock market repeatedly moves higher and lower in both uptrending and downtrending markets. But once you’ve established the primary trend, which, in my opinion, is clearly higher, you can apply the 5-day equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) to help spot key short-term market tops and bottoms. Recently, the pendulum swung to extreme pessimism, which helped me call a bottom. Check it out:

Listen, I don’t fight the signals. This is one of my PRIMARY charts to help me spot short-term market reversals. When I get warning signs of a short-term top and the increasing probability of a short-term period of selling/consolidation, the 5-day SMA of the CPCE is a key in helping to spot when the bleeding stops. It did so perfectly on August 18th, when I wrote my article at StockCharts, “Are You Ready For A Huge Rally?” I use proven methods, strategies, and charts to help me manage my downside risk and to spot key market reversals. This article was simply one example of that. Currently, this 5-day CPCE is neutral, returning from its recent extreme pessimism reading.

Now for the long-term, ocean-liner signal:

Think of this as the Big Picture of sentiment. History tells us that when the trend in sentiment changes, so too does the stock market direction. EVERY SINGLE TIME. When the stock market struggles for a long period of time, like it did during the 2022 CYCLICAL bear market, traders grow more and more pessimistic. The period starts off with retail traders not believing that we’re going lower, so they continue to trade more on the long side, buying calls. It’s not until after they lose a boatload of money that they begin to swing to the pessimistic side. By the time they do, most of the market damage has already been inflicted. At some point, the extreme pessimism marks a significant market bottom, but by then, retail traders have grown excessively bearish and can’t fathom a move higher again until….you guessed it…..the market has already rebounded substantially.

Look at the chart above. Once the 253-day (1 year) moving average of the equity only put call ratio has risen to an extremely high reading, the sellers are DONE and the stock market rallies. And when retail traders grow too bullish after market advances, stocks tend to perform poorly, or at least flat. Again, I don’t make this stuff up. Look at the chart and see it for yourself. The key on this ocean-liner chart is THE TURN – either the turn lower after a significant rise or the turn higher after a significant decline (or long-lasting consolidation period). In my opinion, this ocean-liner signal has reached a peak and is turning lower. I believe that will ultimately result in U.S. equity prices rising significantly over the foreseeable future.

Volatility Index ($VIX):

The VIX is interesting, because it has a very strong inverse relationship vs. the S&P 500. When stocks gain ground, the VIX drops. When stocks lose ground, the VIX rises. Here’s a long-term chart to illustrate:

I think the inverse relationship is quite clear, especially when you see how many times we’re in the -0.50 to -1.00 range vs. the +0.50 to +1.00 range. But we do see daily readings positive occasionally and when that positive correlation does appear, the signals are quite interesting. Here’s what I mean:

Over the past two years, we’ve only received 3 signals (correlation moving into positive territory), but they’ve been excellent signals and I’ve written about them. The first one in November 2021 appeared after a significant short-term advance. Note how we saw a key reversal into the second half of November. The second signal appeared in the first week of January 2023. I wrote about it and spoke about it:

I’m posting these to provide examples of how we use our signals to PREDICT the market’s next move, rather than simply tell you how it already moved. Market Guidance is about the future and no one calls it better than EarningsBeats.com. I believe we’ve proven that over a very tumultuous period that included a pandemic-related cyclical bear market, one of the strongest 2-year bull market advances in our history, a cyclical bear market prompted by rising inflation and a hawkish Fed, and yet another very strong bull market rally in 2023. Intermediate-term calls, both bullish and bearish, have helped guide traders and many times it’s these sentiment signals that do the majority of the work.

Intermarket Relationships

Many times I refer to these intermarket relationships as sustainability ratios. They provide us clues as to the likelihood that a current market trend will continue. If the S&P 500 is rising, I feel much more confident about it continuing if our sustainability ratios are rising as well. I believe some of these ratios are more important than others, so I’ll provide the two that are most important to me:

Consumer discretionary vs. Consumer staples (XLY:XLP):

Our GDP is comprised of two-thirds consumer spending. If we truly want to see into the future, we need to be aware of how the consumer is doing, specifically by evaluating the relationship of discretionary stocks (these companies provide us the things we WANT) vs. staples stocks (these companies provide us the things we NEED). The S&P 500 thrives in a “risk-on” market environment that includes consumers spending money on the things they WANT. The XLY:XLP ratio provides us the current market “temperature” on how the big Wall Street firms view this relationship. As long as we keep seeing higher highs and higher lows on this XLY:XLP ratio, I’m going to be bullish. You must keep in mind that, during consolidation/selling periods, money will rotate from the XLY to the XLP. That’s normal market behavior. So I don’t grow bearish every time this ratio declines. It’s more of a Big Picture review of the ratio vs. the S&P 500. Check this out:

The above XLY:XLP chart includes a proprietary User-Defined Index that tracks this ratio on an INTRADAY basis that excludes opening gaps. I do this to see how this relationship is performing during the trading day to rid myself of all the market maker noise that surrounds opening gaps. You can see from the above chart that the XLY:XLP intraday ratio was performing much better in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, providing us a much more bullish signal, while the market-maker-manipulated gaps showed us a more bearish picture (steady declines, falling red directional lines). The blue directional lines in the top panel of the chart SCREAMED at us that money was rotating very aggressively during the trading day. In other words, the big Wall Street crowd was buying and that’s always a bullish signal.

NASDAQ 100 vs. S&P 500 (QQQ:SPY)

History tells us that the NASDAQ 100 outperforms the S&P 500 during secular bull market advances. The reason is simple. Growth stocks outperform value stocks when our economy is strong, strengthening, or expected to strengthen. The NASDAQ has more representation of growth stocks, so we should view a rising QQQ:SPY quite bullishly. Here’s how this chart looks now, also providing the INTRADAY QQQ:SPY relationship to exclude those manipulative gaps:

Before I analyze this chart, let me address one question that ALWAYS seems to surface. The NAME of this User-Defined Index chart is “@SPYQQQ”. That does not dictate the order in which this ratio is calculated. I can PROMISE you that it’s based on the intraday QQQ:SPY ratio. I just want to be clear about that, because many have suggested I did the calculation backwards. Remember, it’s just a name. In hindsight, I wish I had picked the name “@QQQSPY”, but I didn’t.

The red directional line in the top panel suggests that Wall Street has begun to rotate away from growth and that should not be ignored. Historically, we begin to see much better action in value-oriented stocks vs. growth-oriented, so it’s important to note this subtle signal. The QQQ:SPY ratio seems to be holding up in that 2nd panel, but it’s primarily because of the opening gaps. The QQQ has been gapping higher, but it’s been followed by intraday selling and rotation towards the SPY. That isn’t necessarily bearish. It’s simply a signal that we could see leadership rotate to areas like industrials, financials, health care, and energy. And that’s how the market generally trades in the final months of the year.

Trade Setups

As I mentioned above, we’re beginning to see the historical leaves change as September arrives. I am focused on uncovering value-oriented industrials and financials to lead us into year end as the torch is passed from technology. That’s why the stocks below are not AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, AMZN, GOOGL, etc. I expect those stocks to pause in Q4 as they normally do. In the meantime, here are 2 that I believe could be solid trades into year end:

JP MorganChase (JPM):

I could see JPM dipping into the low 140s, possibly into the upper 130s, but I really like the recent selling (5 weeks running) that’s left JPM at its rising 20-week EMA just prior to a very bullish seasonal pattern. Over the past 11 years, JPM has average returns as follows by quarter:

Jan-Mar: -1.9%Apr-Jun: +4.1%Jul-Sep: +2.7%Oct-Dec: +12.9%

JPM loves Q4. If history repeats itself, don’t be surprised to see JPM hitting all-time highs by the end of the year.

Boeing (BA):

Not many stocks were rocked as hard as BA during the pandemic and in the years following. It now seems to be on a much better trajectory, however. I like the fact that BA spent much of 2023 in a tight range between 195 and 220, not really participating in the market’s advance. On extremely heavy volume in July, accompanying its quarterly results, BA broke out of this range and is now trading almost squarely on that prior resistance near 220. Like JPM, it has a historically-strong period that’s about to begin. Here’s how BA’s average quarterly returns unfold:

Jan-Mar: +2.4%Apr-Jun: +1.6%Jul-Sep: +6.5%Oct-Dec: +11.4%

I’d say BA is in its sweet spot historically and the technical conditions support an advance from here as well.

JPM and BA are both in that value camp and represent financials and industrials, respectively. I believe both will outperform the S&P 500 from now through year end.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

There isn’t likely to be a lot of market movement based upon key earnings reports. Most large companies that could influence the benchmark S&P 500 and/or the NASDAQ 100 have long since reported results. Here are a few interesting companies reporting this week, however, by day and market cap:

Tuesday: ZS ($22 billion)

Wednesday: None

Thursday: DOCU ($10 billion)

Friday: KR ($33 billion)

Key Economic Reports

The beige book is likely to grab attention and headlines on Wednesday afternoon at 2pm ET, but otherwise it’ll be a fairly slow week for economic reports. Key economic news will be out next week, including both the monthly CPI and PPI reports. Those will come one week before the Fed decides whether or not to raise interest rates.

This week’s reports:

Tuesday: Factory orders

Wednesday: PMI composite, ISM services, beige book

Thursday: Initial jobless claims, productivity and costs

Friday: Wholesale inventories

Historical Data

Each week, I’ll provide you the average annualized returns for each calendar day and by index. Here’s the balance of this week:

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Historically, I’d say next week favors small caps, but let me say that seasonal information ALWAYS takes a back seat to technical analysis and current market conditions.

Final Thoughts

Whew! This is obviously a very lengthy report. There are many charts that I won’t address on a weekly basis as they simply don’t change that often. I’ll likely discuss the Big Picture 100-year chart at the beginning of every month. Otherwise, there’ll be plenty of week-to-week redundancy. The “ocean-liner” CPCE is another chart that can be reviewed monthly. And I may add a section here or there in various weekly market reports. But what you see above is the majority of what you can expect in the future on Sundays/Mondays. Remember, this in-depth analysis will REPLACE the Monday Daily Market Report. Those DMRs will be published Tuesdays through Fridays.

As I look at the stock market right now, I have several thoughts:

We’re in a SECULAR bull market, so you won’t hear or see me talking bearishly about the stock market long-term unless conditions change immenselyIt’s September! The second half of September is the truly bearish part of the month. Until then, we typically see average annualized market returns comparable to the S&P 500 throughout the entire yearWhile not addressed in this long-term weekly report, there are 60-minute negative divergences that could impact this week’s trading – to the downside. From a long-term perspective, however, this VERY short-term momentum warning is much like a gnat on an elephant’s butt. It really doesn’t matter.One very important key that I’ll be watching throughout September is the possible rotation into more value-oriented stocks. Just like in 2022, don’t view this as bearish rotation. The growth stocks deserve a pause and areas like semiconductors will produce long-term negative divergences on the weekly chart if we see further strength.Earnings and economic news will be very light, so we’ll likely see market action follow the technicals, with little in the way of fundamental news to digest.Please always try to keep perspective in mind when you evaluate the U.S. stock market. Honestly, I believe most every analyst needs a big dose of perspective from time to time. And retail traders? Puh-lease, most cannot look past what’s happened in the past week or month, let alone stepping back and viewing the Big Picture chart from space. There are so many emotional traders, responding to the latest CNBC headline. Don’t be in that group or market makers will get the best of you.

Feedback

I hope you enjoyed this very first edition of our EB Weekly Market Report! We’d absolutely love your feedback, whether positive or negative. Let us know what you think by sending us your comments to “support@earningsbeats.com”.

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Thanks and happy trading!

Tom

Texas is pushing back against the Biden administration after they say the government’s push to classify a lizard as an endangered species could have a devastating impact on the state’s oil and gas industry.

In a recent letter to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Texas General Land Office Commissioner Dawn Buckingham wrote that the classification of the dunes sagebrush lizard (DSL) as an endangered species ‘could have a crippling impact on the oil and gas industry.’

‘Although the proposed habitat of the DSL is not well or clearly defined, it appears to be located primarily in the Permian Basin of far West Texas, which is the beating heart of Texas’ – and the country’s – oil and gas industry and, therefore, one of the primary sources of revenue for education in Texas, by way of the School Fund and the PUF,’ the letter states.

The letter states that ‘listing the DSL will surely bring with it a designation of critical habitat as well as rules strictly limiting, or even prohibiting, surface activities that are necessary for oil and gas exploration and production.’

Buckingham’s office told Fox News Digital that the Biden administration has provided no evidence of changes to the drilling in the area that would justify updating a 2012 finding that the two-inch lizard does not meet the threshold of an endangered species.

‘As Texas’ land commissioner, I steward over 13 million acres of rich Texas lands on behalf of the taxpayer,’ Buckingham told Fox News Digital. ‘Many of these state lands are rich in natural resources and produce billions of dollars in benefits for Texans. The reckless actions by Biden and his USFWS directly threaten the quality of every Texas public school child’s education. If Biden adopts this proposal, I will do everything in my power to protect Texas energy and Texas education.’

Buckingham’s office says the Permanent School Fund Land in Texas helps fund public education in the state and sent $2.1 billion in royalties toward that effort last year alone.

‘This could cripple what is now a very healthy job environment,’ Doug Robison, president of ExL Petroleum in Midland, Texas, said in 2011 when environmental groups began pushing for the lizard to be federally protected.

In the letter, Buckingham also said that the population of the DSL has been increasing in the area over the last few years due in part to conservation efforts by the state that the federal government is being accused of ignoring.

‘With an increasing and thriving population that can even persist in ‘highly degraded areas’, the DSL is not in need of the federal protections offered by the Rule; particularly when doing so risks crippling Texas’ oil and gas industry,’ the letter states. ‘Unfortunately, USFWS has not yet considered those impacts (as it is required to do): ‘Careful assessments of the economic and environmental impacts that may occur due to a critical habitat designation are not yet complete.’

‘The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will respond to private correspondence privately,’ the Department of the Interior told Fox News Digital.

The Biden administration is to review comments from all parties before deciding on moving forward with the rule within the extended deadline of Oct. 2, 2023.

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Some on the right and left have claimed that former President Trump could be disqualified from appearing on the 2024 presidential ballot. Several legal experts dismiss that theory as not just implausible but potentially dangerous.

The legal theory goes that Trump could be blocked from the ballot point as Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution — the Disqualifications Clause — bars individuals who ‘have engaged in insurrection or rebellion’ against America, or aided those engaged in such, from holding office.

The section also includes a provision allowing Congress to ‘remove such disability’ via ‘a vote of two-thirds’ in each chamber.

However, the argument for the Disqualifications Clause does not hold water, according to multiple legal experts.

George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley says there ‘are good faith arguments in favor of this claim’ but he views the theory as ‘not simply dubious but dangerous.’

‘The amendment was written to deal with those who engage in an actual rebellion causing hundreds of thousands of deaths,’ Turley said. ‘Advocates would extend the reference to ‘insurrection or rebellion’ to include unsupported claims and challenges involving election fraud.’

Turley said he has long criticized Trump’s January 6 speech, but he views the violence at the Capitol that day as ‘a protest that became a riot.’ That definition would be crucial to applying the 14th Amendment, according to Turley, and Trump has not been found guilty of insurrection or incitement to rebellion.

‘According to these advocates, Trump can be barred from the ballot without any charge, let alone a conviction, of insurrection or rebellion,’ Turley said.

Turley said the proponents ‘also argue that there is no action needed from Congress’ and thus, ‘state and federal judges could just bar those who are deemed as supporting rebellion through their election challenges and claims.’

Heritage Foundation senior legal fellow Hans von Spakovsky told Fox News Digital that it is his opinion that there are no legal grounds to keep Trump off the ballot via the 14th Amendment.

Von Spakovsky said that liberals were making the same argument against several conservatives prior to the 2022 midterm elections, citing the January 6 Riots.

‘They were all unsuccessful,’ Von Spakovsky said. ‘And every discussion that I’ve seen of this ignores the fact nobody ever mentions that they talk about Section 3 of the 14th Amendment as if it currently exists.’

Von Spakovsky noted the two-thirds vote provision allowing Congress to ‘remove such a disability’ under the Disqualifications Clause and argued that the legislature already has removed the clause.

‘In 1872, they passed . . . the Amnesty Act, and it removed the Section three disqualification, with certain exceptions, including anybody who had served in two of the Congresses just before the Civil War, and members of the military, for example, who had been in the Union Army and had served the Confederacy,’ Von Spakovsky said.

‘In 1898, Congress passed a second amnesty act that completely got rid of all of those exceptions,’ he added. ‘So the Disqualification Clause, it’s gone. It’s not valid anymore.’

Push to bar Trump from ballot gains steam

However, despite any challenges, some legal scholars say that there are paths to prevent Trump from being on the ballot, and the idea continues to gain attention.

Center for American Progress Action Fund senior fellow Michael Sozan told Fox News Digital, ‘This must not become a partisan matter.’

‘Following the plain language of the Constitution, Donald Trump and other officials who were involved in the January 6 insurrection are disqualified from holding future public office,’ Sozan argued. ‘This conclusion is supported by a wide range of respected constitutional law experts — across the ideological spectrum.’

‘There are multiple paths to formally carry out Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The most straightforward way is for state election officials to disqualify Trump from appearing on their state’s ballot. No doubt, this will be challenged in court — but if Supreme Court justices are serious about applying the Constitution’s plain words, they will agree with the disqualification.’

However, even if efforts to take to remove Trump from the ballot begin, there’s no guarantee they will succeed, according to Fox News contributor and former deputy independent counsel Sol Wisenberg.

Wisenberg told Fox News Digital that there ‘is a legal path for states to TRY to remove Trump from the ballot,’ but he believes ‘that it will fail.’

‘I think the issue will make it to the federal courts, because it is likely that at least one Democratic state official will make the determination to take Trump off the ballot,’ Wisenberg said. ‘I believe the case will make its way fairly rapidly to the U.S. Supreme Court.’

‘I expect the Court to hold that a Presidential candidate cannot be removed from the Presidential ballot without: 1) some sort of enabling legislation passed by Congress that sets up a judicial process for determining whether that candidate has engaged in insurrection or rebellion; and 2) an actual trial under said statute,’ Wisenberg continued.

‘There is already one such statute, in place. It is Title 18 U.S. Code, Section 2383, covering rebellion or insurrection,’ he added.

Title 18, Section 2383 of the U.S. Code says that whoever ‘incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.’

Several states are seeing calls to ban Trump from the ballot, but it is unlikely that the proposals will be taken up.

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said on a podcast this week that the state Supreme Court ruled ‘there’s no statutory process in federal law to enforce Section 3 of the 14th amendment’ and that ‘you can’t enforce it.’

‘That’s what the Arizona Supreme Court said, so that’s the state of the law in Arizona. Now, do I agree with that? No, that’s stupid,’ Fontes said, noting that he would ‘follow the law’ in Arizona, even though he disagrees with it.

Additionally, despite being a vocal GOP critic of former President Donald Trump, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu — along with other state party officials — is staying away from a long-shot effort to keep Trump off the presidential ballot.

Bryant ‘Corky’ Messner, an attorney and prominent Republican who won the 2020 Republican Senate nomination, thanks in great part to Trump’s support, is mulling a lawsuit if Trump later this year files to put his name on the New Hampshire primary ballot. 

Messner is very publicly questioning the former president’s eligibility to run for the White House, and cites Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. That section disqualifies those who’ve taken an oath to support the Constitution from holding office again if they’ve ‘engaged in insurrection or rebellion’ against the U.S. ‘or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.’

Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser contributed reporting.

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President Biden told reporters Sunday he was ‘disappointed’ Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly will not attend the upcoming G20 summit scheduled to take place in India this week. 

‘I am disappointed, but I’m gonna get to see him,’ Biden told reporters in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, without elaborating. 

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre announced on Aug. 22 that Biden will travel to New Delhi, India, from Sept. 7-10 to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit.

Biden and Xi last met at the prior G20 summit hosted in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022. 

Washington-Beijing relations have taken a nosedive since then, after a Chinese spy craft traversed the continental United States earlier this year. Biden has sent several diplomats and even Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to China in recent months in an apparent effort to smooth tensions. Yet, the U.S. president had stood by his categorization of Xi as a ‘dictator’ despite Beijing’s outcry, including during a question and answer period alongside Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House in June.

Approaching reporters after he attended mass at St. Edmond Roman Catholic Church, the president also said Sunday he was aware of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s video announcement Sunday that he would ask parliament this week to dismiss Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. However, Biden said he had no further comment publicly on the development. 

One reporter asked, ‘What do you want to achieve in India and Vietnam?’

‘I want a little more coordination,’ Biden responded. ‘I think they both want closer relations with the United States and that could be very helpful.’ 

In announcing his travel last month, the White House said Biden and G20 partners ‘will discuss a range of joint efforts to tackle global issues, including on the clean energy transition and combating climate change, mitigating the economic and social impacts of Putin’s war in Ukraine, and increasing the capacity of multilateral development banks, including the World Bank, to better fight poverty, including by addressing global challenges.’ 

While in New Delhi, Biden ‘will also commend Prime Minister Modi’s leadership of the G20 and reaffirm the U.S. commitment to the G20 as the premier forum of economic cooperation, including by hosting it in 2026,’ the White House said. 

Meanwhile, Xi addressed the Global Trade in Services Summit of the 2023 China International Fair for Trade in Services CIFTIS via video in Beijing Saturday. 

Xi is apparently skipping this week’s Group of 20 summit in India as bilateral relations remain icy.

Instead, Premier Li Qiang will represent China at the gathering, the Foreign Ministry said Monday in a brief notice on its website.

Relations between China and India have grown frosty over their disputed border, and three years ago the tensions resulted in a clash in the Ladakh region that killed 20 Indian soldiers. It turned into a long-running standoff in the rugged mountainous area, where each side stationed tens of thousands of military personnel backed by artillery, tanks and fighter jets. Frictions have also risen over trade and India’s growing strategic ties with China’s main rival, the United States. Both India and China also have expelled the other’s journalists.

India recently overtook China as the world’s most populous nation, and the two are rivals in technology, space exploration and global trade.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is signaling that he is serious about pushing through some form of regulatory framework for artificial intelligence when Congress is back from its August recess. 

Schumer is planning on kicking off a series of bipartisan ‘AI Insight Forums,’ he told Senate Democrats in a letter on Friday morning, in a bid to get lawmakers caught up on the rapidly advancing tech. His first, on Sept. 13, is expected to feature tech leaders like Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Sam Altman, among others. 

‘These forums will build on the longstanding work of our Committees by supercharging the Senate’s typical process so we can stay ahead of AI’s rapid development,’ Schumer said. ‘This is not going to be easy, it will be one of the most difficult things we undertake, but in the twenty-first century we cannot behave like ostriches in the sand when it comes to AI. We must treat AI with the same level of seriousness as national security, job creation, and our civil liberties.’

The New York Democrat has made AI regulation a marquee goal of his razor-thin majority this Congress, convening a bipartisan AI working group dedicated to getting their colleagues caught up enough to discuss regulatory efforts. 

A member of that working group, Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., praised the forum series to Fox News Digital and affirmed they would help put lawmakers ‘in the driver’s seat’ on AI.

‘The AI Insight Forums will be a comprehensive way for Congress to explore key policy issues, opportunities, and threats related to artificial intelligence as we develop potential legislative solutions,’ Young said. 

‘The Forums’ style will allow us to explore, with the help of experts and stakeholders, a wide range of topics at a deep level while keeping committees of jurisdiction and their members in the driver’s seat when it comes to the legislative outcomes.’

‘With the rapid evolution of AI in recent years, this process could not be more timely and needed,’ Young said.

It’s the second set of learning sessions that Schumer is rolling out for senators. Before the August recess, his bipartisan working group rolled out a series of informational briefings on AI, culminating in the first-ever classified all-Senate briefing on AI and national security in July.

But despite the relatively bipartisan sentiments toward putting up guardrails on AI, not everyone in the Senate is on board.

‘I am concerned China is investing heavily in AI. I’m also concerned that Democrats want to impose such stringent regulations on the development of AI that it stifles innovation in the United States, and allows China to take the lead,’ Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, told Fox News Digital after the classified July briefing. ‘That would be a generational mistake.’

The ambitious regulatory push comes during a major crunch time for the Senate. The chamber has to work out some sort of spending deal with the GOP-led House to avoid a government shutdown by Sept. 30, in addition to reauthorizing the FAA, FISA and other critical programs by the year’s end. 

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The National Rifle Association responded this week to the Biden administration’s proposed rule requiring more background checks to combat rising gun violence, saying it was just another step to attack ‘law-abiding gun owners.’

Last year, Biden signed the most significant gun control bill in nearly 30 years, which incentivized states to pass red flag laws and expand background checks for 18- to 21-year-olds.

But last week, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) proposed a rule requiring those who sell firearms online or at gun shows to be federally licensed and to run background checks on buyers before completing transactions.

The rule came in response to President Biden’s executive order to Attorney General Merrick Garland to develop and implement a plan clarifying the definition of who is engaged in the business of dealing firearms, requiring them to obtain a federal firearms license.

‘This latest action by the Biden administration is yet another step in their campaign to attack law-abiding gun owners,’ NRA Institute for Legislative Action (NRA-ILA) Executive Director Randy Kozuch said. ‘The Bipartisan ‘Safer Communities’ Act’s passage is now a pretext to require government permission before exercising a constitutional right.’

‘It’s a stark reminder to legislators: give gun controllers any legislative tool, no matter how benign, and they’ll use it to shred the Second Amendment,’ he added. ‘The Biden Administration will clearly use all the tools at their disposal to interfere with our freedoms while doing nothing to stop the violent criminals responsible for America’s recent crime surge.’

ATF Director Steve Dettelbach said last week that the number of people engaging in the firearms sales business and not registering as federal firearms licensees has increased, accusing these sellers of making money off the books, with illicit firearms sales.

The Associated Press reported that the bureau estimates the rule would affect between 24,500 and 328,000 sellers and targets those in the business of selling guns, not with personal gun collections.

A recent AP-NORC poll conducted between Aug. 10-14, 2023, found that nearly two-thirds of the public is in favor of stricter gun laws, compared to just a third of Republicans.

The survey also found more than three-quarters of the 1,165 adults polled nationwide think preventing mass shootings and reducing gun violence is important, and most believe restricting gun access would result in fewer mass shootings, murders and violent crime.

Republicans remain unconvinced that restricting gun access would result in fewer mass shootings and less violent crime, the poll found.

Gun rights groups like the NRA have argued the proposed rule would do little to stop gun violence. The same advocates have quickly sued over other ATF rule changes that they argue infringe on Americans’ Second Amendment rights.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Bonsoir.

‘Table pour 218, s’il vous plait?’

Welcome to the Impeachment Bistro.

This is where impeachment is on the menu.

Better hope you’re not famished when you walk in.

Perhaps boissons until the meal is ready?

It’s a long tease for Republicans. The GOP has talked impeachment for months to sate the appetite of its conservative, often pro-Trump, but vehemently anti-Biden base.

President Biden, Attorney General Merrick Garland, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, FBI Director Christopher Wray and even Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have been on the bill of fare for impeachment.

But obviously, most Republicans interested in impeachment are angling for the President. And they’re simultaneously trying to contain angry conservatives demanding impeachment back home.

‘If you hang on just a little bit longer, I think you’ll see it really quickly,’ implored Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich., on Fox Business about impeachment. ‘So be patient for just a little bit longer.’

It’s hard for Republicans to keep the expectations in check as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., began talking about impeachment in earnest earlier this summer. He’s done so for nearly two months.

‘I would move to an impeachment inquiry if I found that the attorney general has not only lied to the Congress, the Senate, but to America,’ said McCarthy in July about Garland and the Hunter Biden case.

At the time, McCarthy was trying to quash an effort by Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., to force the House to vote on the spot on impeaching President Biden. Boebert’s effort came without any formal investigation, review, depositions, hearings or official preparation of the resolution. Boebert just deposited the measure on the floor. McCarthy moved to kill it.

To McCarthy, Boebert’s plan was impeachment tartare. Uncooked and politically unfit to ingest. 

The Speaker argued that if the House were to pursue impeachment, it must be fully prepared and appropriately garnished. For McCarthy, impeachment of the president is too serious to just throw flippantly throw it on the Congressional grill and expect lawmakers to consider it a bona fide meal.

But McCarthy’s remarks about Garland were just an impeachment apéritif. 

A few days later, the California Republican pivoted from the attorney general and to the president of the United States.

‘This is rising to the level of an impeachment inquiry,’ McCarthy said about Biden on Fox in July.

McCarthy followed up that political amuse bouche with this offering about Mr. Biden and his son’s business dealings.

‘When more of this continues to unravel, it rises to the level of an impeachment inquiry where you would have the Congress have the power to get to all these answers,’ said McCarthy.

Then Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., introduced four formal articles of impeachment for the President. But unlike Boebert, Steube didn’t just plop his articles on the floor.

McCarthy hasn’t gotten to the impeachment le plat principal yet. But he’s certainly well into the impeachment hors-d’oeuvres.

‘If you look at all the information we have been able to gather so far, it is a natural step forward that you would have to go to an impeachment inquiry,’ said McCarthy last week on Fox.

After this much palette preparation, some Republicans are salivating. It’s hard to see how McCarthy doesn’t push ahead with impeachment of the President. The anticipation of the gourmet meal is too great on the right. In fact, if McCarthy doesn’t serve up the impeachment version of pheasant under glass, his own goose may be cooked.

The right isn’t going to go for any petit-dejeuner or a croque monsieur at this stage.

If you’ve ever been to a restaurant where the waiter keeps coming over, pouring more wine and telling you please be patient, the meal is coming, you usually know something is up in the kitchen.

The same is true on Capitol Hill.

This meal just isn’t ready yet. That is, unless you’ll settle for some crudites. And if you follow politics closely, you know that hasn’t worked out well recently.

It’s hard to see exactly what impeachment looks like, since McCarthy has signaled that he’d like to begin some sort of formal inquiry later this month.

Launching a formal impeachment investigation requires the House to vote on an impeachment resolution. In fact, House GOPers railed against Democrats who were in the majority in 2019 for not voting to begin an official impeachment inquiry until late October of that year. Some Republicans have suggested that they could do an impeachment inquiry – without taking a vote on a formal investigation. This will be about the math. Republicans hold a narrow four-seat majority. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., is now likely out for a while, suffering from cancer. The worst-case scenario for McCarthy would be to put some form of a measure regarding impeachment on the floor and watch it fail. 

There are plenty of House Republicans who are skeptical about the House even flirting with impeachment. They don’t think it will be popular with their voters – especially the 18 House GOPers who represent district President Biden won in 2020. They’re concerned about ‘normalizing’ impeachment – almost flipping the U.S. into a parliamentary system where the legislature holds a vote of ‘no confidence’ for a leader.

Some Republicans would prefer to talk about bread-and-butter issues. And they’re less than convinced that House investigators have revealed any smoking gun that shows that the President benefitted from his son’s overseas business dealings. Some of these same Republicans also know that no matter what the House does, the Democratically controlled Senate will euthanize the impeachment articles rather quickly – perhaps without a trial.

Moreover, McCarthy has insisted that he wants to do impeachment by the book. Not the way Boebert offered up her resolution in June. So McCarthy could need to backtrack if the House somehow forges ahead with impeachment without an impeachment inquiry vote.

This is why some Republicans are treading carefully around impeachment.

‘(McCarthy’s) pushed back on the word ‘impeachment,’’ said Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif. ‘We’re not doing an impeachment. We’re not looking at impeachment directly. But we are realizing, as the question implies, that there’s enough there, there. There should be a concerted, bipartisan investigation.’

It’s possible that McCarthy could finesse ‘impeachment’ in a way to convince reluctant Republicans to greenlight an impeachment investigation just because they want to ‘get to the facts.’ But actually voting to impeach the President would be a real challenge.

So, back to the kitchen for now.

And if McCarthy doesn’t somehow whip up some impeachment meringue that satisfies the stomachs of some Republicans, the Impeachment Bistro should brace for a series of brutal reviews on Tripadvisor.

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