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A strike by the United Auto Workers union against the Detroit automakers would help President Joe Biden and other politicians pick a side when it comes to organized labor, UAW President Shawn Fain said Wednesday night.

“I think our strike can reaffirm to [Biden] of where the working-class people in this country stand and, you know, it’s time for politicians in this country to pick a side,” he said during CNBC’s “Last Call” with Brian Sullivan. “Either you stand for a billionaire class where everybody else gets left behind, or you stand for the working class, the working-class people vote.”

The outspoken union leader reiterated that striking against General Motors, Ford Motor and/or Stellantis when contracts for roughly 150,000 auto workers expire after 11:59 p.m. Sept. 14 is not the goal, but the sides remain far apart when it comes to key demands.

“We’re down to the wire. We have eight days to go,” Fain said. “We’re pushing. We’re available 24/7 as we have been for the last seven weeks, so it’s up to the companies on where we end up and whether we end up having to take action or not on the 14th.”

Fain said the union is set to meet Thursday morning with GM, following a Wednesday afternoon meeting with Ford. Stellantis said Wednesday that it “intends to pass the UAW a counter offer to the members’ economic demands by the end of the week.”

Fain’s comments regarding Biden add to an unusual tension between the leader of the historically Democratic union and the commander in chief, who has called himself “the most pro-union president you’ve ever seen.”

Earlier this week, Fain said he was “shocked” to hear Biden say he was “not worried about a strike until it happens” and that he didn’t “think it’s going to happen.”

“He must know something we don’t know. Maybe the companies plan on walking in and giving us our demands on the night before. I don’t know but he’s on the inside on something I don’t know about,” Fain told reporters during a Labor Day event in Detroit.

The UAW has historically supported Democrats. However, former President Donald Trump was able to gain notable support from blue-collar autoworkers during his presidential campaigns. Fain has said he believes another Trump presidency “would be a disaster,” citing the need for the union to “get our members organized behind a pro-worker, pro-climate, and pro-democracy political program that can deliver for the working class.”

The UAW is withholding a reelection endorsement for Biden until concerns about the auto industry’s transition to all-electric vehicles such as job security, pay and organizing are addressed, Fain has said previously.

“Our endorsements are going to be earned not freely given and the actions are going to dictate who we endorse,” Fain reiterated Wednesday.

Simultaneous strikes against GM, Ford and Stellantis would be unprecedented. It also would mark one of the UAW’s largest strikes in recent history and could quickly have a ripple effect on the automotive supply chain, the U.S. economy and domestic manufacturing.

A strike against GM in 2019 during the last round of contract negotiations lasted 40 days and cost the automaker $3.6 billion in earnings that year, GM reported at the time.

The union’s current demands also could be costly if tentative deals are reached. Key demands include a 40% hourly pay increase, a reduced 32-hour workweek, a shift back to traditional pensions, elimination of compensation tiers, and restoration of cost-of-living adjustments, among other items on the table.

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It was around 2 p.m. Thursday when Adam Blackbill realized he wasn’t getting sales reports from his three ice cream shops.

Blackbill has used Square to accept payments for his central Pennsylvania business, Urban Churn, since 2014. He’s used to occasional outages. But as the hours dragged on, he got concerned, as his employees couldn’t input orders and he couldn’t send invoices to wholesale customers or withdraw money.

‘Everything we process is through Square, even online,’ he said. ‘As an ice cream business we’re about to enter our winter season, so every sale matters.’

Urban Churn, which sells all-natural and gourmet ice cream in unusual flavors like sauerkraut or roasted cricket, was one of a slew of small businesses that found themselves thrown into chaos after Square and Cash App, two financial services platforms run by Block, sustained an outage. That caused problems processing sales and even stopped employees from clocking in and out of their shifts.

The problem seemed to have been resolved by Friday morning, but users say a substantial amount of damage was done. Blackbill estimates that his company lost $8,000 to $10,000 in revenue.

Harry Coleman, the proprietor of Empanada Harry’s bakery and Smoke and Dough smokehouse in Miami, says he spent much of the day watching sales walk out the door.

‘People don’t carry cash anymore, so we had a bunch of people just leave without buying anything,’ Coleman said. ‘People don’t carry cash and people don’t want to take 10-15 minutes to drive to the ATM.’

He says that being unable to make sales at his smokehouse during dinner on Thursday was especially painful, adding that the outage cost him around $2,000.

Unlike some users, Blackbill says Square’s offline mode worked at two of his three stores. According to Square, offline mode allows businesses to process payments when internet service is unavailable. Once internet is restored, the offline payments get processed automatically, it says. But as of Friday morning, Blackbill said about 30 of those offline transactions appeared to be missing.

Beyond the lost money, users told NBC News they are frustrated that Square didn’t reach out to tell them what was wrong. Instead, many of them found out on X, formerly Twitter.

Square emailed some users and posted a message on X Friday morning. It described the problem as a ‘systems outage.’

“We know you trust us with your business, and these situations add challenges to running your operations. For that, we are truly sorry,” it said.

“I didn’t get email or any notification from Square that they were the ones having problems. That’s kind of a bummer,” said Vincent Shay, the owner of the Mermaid Market on Port San Luis Beach in Avila Harbor, California.

Shay says he assumed for several hours that his Wi-Fi was the problem. He says he ultimately closed his shop early because it was impossible to make a sale.

Users said Square also hasn’t done enough to make things right. They want compensation as well as an apology.

“We hope they look out for us now and give us some kind of free processing or something’ to make up for the losses, Coleman said.

Blackbill, meanwhile, says he’s been able to overlook Square’s imperfections in the past, but now he’s looking at switching to other payment processors.

‘It was never something that would make me want to switch or try to find another platform. But there would be some downtime recently, some hiccups, and for something like this to happen, we never had this happen at this large of a scale.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The United Auto Workers are getting down to the wire in negotiations with the “Big Three” U.S. automakers — General Motors, Ford and Chrysler maker Stellantis — over a new labor contract for around 146,000 workers.

Talks have been rocky, and some industry watchers foresee a fairly high likelihood of a strike, which could take place as soon as the current contract expires one minute before midnight next Thursday.

Here’s where the dispute between the union and the so-called Detroit 3 stands and what might come next.

How close are the parties to reaching a deal?

As of Friday evening, GM, Ford and Stellantis had each submitted at least one proposal to the UAW, though the union has indicated it isn’t ready to accept any of them yet. Talks appear set to continue into next week.

As is common in high-profile labor negotiations, the rhetoric has been heated. UAW President Shawn Fain earlier panned some automakers’ offers and emphasized that union workers stand ready to head to the picket lines, though he told a crowd in Detroit over Labor Day weekend: “Our intent is not to strike. Our intent is to get a fair agreement.”

United Auto Workers members and others gather for a rally after marching in the Labor Day parade in Detroit on Sept. 4, 2023.Bill Pugliano / Getty Images

The union is negotiating with all three automakers simultaneously, in a break from previous rounds of contract talks. The UAW also recently filed a complaint with the National Labor Relations Board accusing GM and Stellantis of failing to bargain in good faith and in a timely fashion.

The automakers have said they’re willing to negotiate in good faith and have pushed back against union demands they say are excessive — in some cases warning that big pay hikes could cut into investments needed to make the transition to electric vehicles.

What happens if there’s no deal by Sept. 14?

The current UAW contracts expire at 11:59 p.m. next Thursday, and rank-and-file workers voted overwhelmingly late last month to authorize a strike in case handshake agreements with any of the companies aren’t in place by then.

A strike at one, two or all three automakers could happen at any time from next Friday onward, though multiple strikes could be called at different times. That means up to 146,000 workers could wind up picketing simultaneously, though the total could be far fewer if a strike is limited to just one or two of the companies instead of all three.

What are workers’ top demands?

Fain has promoted the union’s “ambitious” push for more generous wages and benefits. The UAW is seeking a 40% wage hike over four years (amounting to 46% compounded), along with cost-of-living increases; beefed-up retirement benefits, including pensions on par with what autoworkers previously received; and a shortened 32-hour workweek, down from 40.

United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, second left, at a Labor Day parade in Detroit on Monday. Paul Sancya / AP

The UAW has pointed to Big Three executives’ pay in demanding higher pay for workers. For example, GM chief Mary Barra’s compensation grew by 32.5% from 2018 to 2022. During the same period, the median GM employee’s pay grew by 2.8%, public filings show.

Ford appointed a new CEO in 2020, and the pay jumped 18% from 2018 to 2022, when the median employee’s pay rose 16.1%. Data for Stellantis is unavailable because the company was formed only in 2021 and is now headquartered in Amsterdam, where pay disclosure rules are different from those in the U.S.

How much would a strike cost car companies and workers?

Even a strike lasting just 10 days could cost the Big Three automakers at least $5 billion, according to a recent estimate by the Anderson Economic Group.

The immediate impact would be halted production. IHS analysts estimate that for every week workers are on strike, GM’s output would fall by 55,000 vehicles a week and Ford’s by about 65,000 a week.

GM and Ford stand to lose $2.5 billion and $3 billion in revenue, respectively, for every week a strike lasts, Goldman Sachs Equity Research estimated. By comparison, agreeing to a 40% wage bump for UAW members would cost GM $4 billion to $5 billion and Ford $5 billion to $6 billion over four years. Goldman didn’t provide estimates for Stellantis.

The UAW has amassed $825 million in a strike fund that would pay eligible members $500 a week during a work stoppage, a sum that is expected to last for up to around 11 weeks but could be depleted sooner because of health care costs.

Would vehicle prices rise if UAW workers strike?

If fewer new cars are produced, inventory on dealer lots would dwindle, which could push prices higher.

Following the pandemic and a global supply chain crunch in materials and parts, U.S. new-vehicle inventory levels are still tighter this year than they were during the last round of bargaining, in 2019.

Cox Automotive estimated the supply of new vehicles at the end of July as enough to cover 56 days of sales — below the 60-day mark considered “normal” and the 66-day measure recorded in the lead-up to 2019 UAW negotiations.

The impact could be more muted for Ford and Stellantis brands like Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler and Ram, which Cox said had above-average levels of supply. But GM brands like Cadillac and Chevrolet have slightly below-average supplies.

When was the last time autoworkers went on strike?

In 2019, autoworkers at GM went on a 40-day strike that cost the company an estimated $3.6 billion that year. The work stoppage pushed Michigan’s economy into a single-quarter recession.

Why aren’t workers from other car companies threatening to strike?

GM, Ford and Stellantis are the only major automakers whose U.S. workers are unionized.

Foreign automakers such as Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen, Mercedes and Hyundai are among those operating nonunion plants in the U.S. — including outside of Michigan. In the electric vehicle space, newer entrants like Tesla, Rivian and VinFast also build in the U.S., similarly without union labor.

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A draft environmental review of the Dakota Access Pipeline was released Friday by federal officials.The review calls for further input before an affirmative decision on the future of the pipeline’s controversial Missouri River crossing.A federal judge revoked the permit of the crossing, located upstream of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s reservation, over three years ago.

Federal officials on Friday released a draft environmental review of the Dakota Access oil pipeline, but said they’re waiting for more input before deciding the future of the line’s controversial river crossing in North Dakota.

The draft was released over three years after a federal judge ordered the environmental review and revoked the permit for the Missouri River crossing, upstream of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s reservation. The tribe is concerned a pipeline oil spill could contaminate its water supply.

North Dakota officials support a decision that ultimately allows the pipeline to continue operating as it has. The tribe is calling for a new review and a pipeline shutdown.

The environmental review is key for whether the federal government reissues the permit. The pipeline has been operating since 2017, including during the environmental review.

The draft environmental impact statement, which is dated in June but was made public Friday, noted that the Corps ‘has not selected a preferred alternative,’ but will make a decision in its final review, after considering input from the public and other agencies.

The draft details five options for the pipeline, including denying the easement for the crossing and removing or abandoning a 7,500-foot segment. Officials could also approve the easement with measures for ‘increased operational safety,’ or grant the same easement with no changes.

A fifth option is a 111-mile reroute of the pipeline to north of Bismarck, over 38 miles upstream from the current crossing. The reroute would require new permits from federal, state and local authorities and regulators, which could take at least two years. The exact path of such a reroute is unknown, according to the draft.

‘We are seeking public input on the environmental analysis of each alternative, and that input combined with the environmental analysis will help us to make an informed decision among the alternatives,’ Corps Omaha District spokesman Steve Wolf told The Associated Press.

A comment period will end Nov. 13. Public meetings are scheduled Nov. 1-2 in Bismarck.

A final environmental impact statement will follow the public input and environmental analysis, and a formal decision will be made, Wolf said.

Republican U.S. Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota told the AP a final alternative is expected to come out in fall 2024. He said he hopes for a decision that allows the pipeline to continue operating.

‘Clearly they should go ahead and approve it without any additional modifications. The safety measures are in place,’ Hoeven said.

Tribal Chairwoman Janet Alkire on Friday said the draft review should be ‘invalidated’ and the Corps should ‘start from scratch’ on a new review, with the pipeline shut down. The tribe is furious, she said.

‘The pipeline is an imminent threat to the Missouri River, sensitive habitat and sacred burial sites along the riverbank,’ Alkire said. ‘The oil company’s emergency response plans are inadequate, its safety track record is horrendous, and there’s been a stunning lack of transparency with Standing Rock throughout the environmental review process, including inaccurate characterizations of tribal consultation.’

She also called on the public to submit comments supporting a new review and a shutdown of the pipeline.

North Dakota’s governor-led, three-member Industrial Commission on Thursday heard of the draft’s pending release. Republican Gov. Doug Burgum on Thursday called the selection of no preferred alternative ‘unusual if not unprecedented.’

Burgum in a statement Friday added his support for granting the easement as it was previously issued, citing the pipeline as a safe operation and better than rail.

Hoeven said an Army official had notified him that the Corps wouldn’t make a recommendation in the draft, but the agency will do more consultation in addition to the public input. The senator said he emphasized that the Corps consult with the state and the oil-rich Three Affiliated Tribes, whose reservation shares geography with North Dakota’s oil patch.

State and federal officials and the pipeline’s company say the line is safe. It moves oil from western North Dakota to Illinois. Leaders in North Dakota’s oil industry and state government consider the pipeline to be crucial infrastructure, with far less oil now transported by rail.

The pipeline is moving about 600,000 to 650,000 barrels of oil per day. Its capacity is 750,000 barrels per day. North Dakota produces about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day.

The U.S. Supreme Court last year refused to take up an appeal of the tribe’s lawsuit over the pipeline. The tribe first filed the lawsuit in 2016. Thousands of people gathered and camped near the pipeline’s river crossing for protests that lasted months and sparked hundreds of arrests in 2016 and 2017. More than 830 criminal cases resulted from the protests.

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Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s alleged connections to Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky are resurfacing after the tycoon’s arrest last week, raising concern and scrutiny in GOP circles. 

Mucarsel-Powell, a former U.S. representative, announced her bid for a Senate seat against incumbent Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., in August. During her last unsuccessful bid for Congress, her campaign was dogged by criticism about her husband’s work for a company that worked with businesses tied to Kolomoisky, one of the wealthiest oligarchs in Ukraine who has been accused of fraud, bribery and hiring hitmen.

‘Of course, it’s concerning,’ Priscilla Ivasco, spokesperson for Scott’s campaign, told Fox News Digital Friday of Mucarsel-Powell’s alleged connection. ‘And it’s one of the many reasons that the voters of South Florida voted her out of office. Floridians rejected DMP once, and they’ll do it again.’ 

Mucarsel-Powell has repeatedly dismissed criticism that her husband had ties to Kolomoisky. 

‘Republicans are recycling old and debunked lies that have nothing to do with Debbie Mucarsel-Powell or her family,’ spokesperson Michelle Gajewski for Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign said to Fox News Digital in a statement Friday. ‘These lies won’t distract from Rick Scott’s record of profiting from investments linked to Vladimir Putin and Venezuela, overseeing the largest Medicare fraud in history, and invoking the 5th Amendment 75 times to avoid self-incrimination. As recent polling shows Rick Scott falling behind, he will tell any lie to hold onto this seat.’

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Philip Letsou told Fox News Digital in a statement that ‘Floridians deserve better than crooked politicians like socialist Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, whose family fortune was bankrolled by a corrupt warlord who allegedly engaged in bribery, embezzlement and contract killings.’

‘Will Mucarsel-Powell return the favor and help post Kolomoisky’s $14 million bail?’ Letsou asked. 

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee did not respond to Fox News’ Digital request for comment by press deadline.

In 2018, an investigative report by The Daily Beast discovered Mucarsel-Powell’s husband, attorney Robert Powell, was hired by several businesses connected to Kolomoisky. Among these firms, one alone has publicly reported payments to Powell for at least $700,000 over a span of two years.

At the time, when Mucarsel-Powell was running for a House seat, a campaign spokesperson responded to the allegations in The Daily Beast, saying, ‘The absurdity of Debbie being attacked over an indirect shareholder to her husband’s former employer, a job he no longer even holds, is exactly why people are tired of politics.’

State media reported last week that Kolomoisky faces arrest in a fraud probe after a Kyiv court decreed two months of pre-trial detention. Meanwhile, authorities will investigate the fraud allegations, according to Ukrainian outlet Ukrinform’s report.

Kolomoisky told Ukrinform he ‘superficially’ looked over the charges and ‘absolutely’ disagrees with them. 

The U.S. State Department previously sanctioned Kolonoisky for alleged ‘corrupt acts that undermined rule of law and the Ukrainian public’s faith in their government’s democratic institutions and public processes, including using his political influence and official power for his personal benefit.

‘The Department will continue to use authorities like this to promote accountability for corrupt actors in this region and globally.’ 

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A federal judge has denied Mark Meadows’ request to move his 2020 election case from a Georgia state court to a federal court.

The former White House chief of staff under former President Donald Trump is among the 19 defendants facing charges stemming from Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ investigation into alleged efforts by the former president and his allies to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Georgia.

Meadows had argued his case belonged in federal court because his charges are connected with actions he took in his official duties as a Trump administration official.

U.S. District Judge Steve Jones’ ruling came in a 49-page opinion that said Meadows’ duties ‘did not include working with or working for the Trump campaign, except for simply coordinating the President’s schedule, traveling with the President to his campaign events, and redirecting communications to the campaign. Thus, consistent with his testimony and the federal statutes and regulations, engaging in political activities is [sic] exceeds the outer limits of the Office of the White House Chief of Staff.’

Meadows’ charges include two counts in a 41-count indictment brought against Trump and his allies. All 18 defendants are charged with at least one count of violating the Georgia RICO Act — the Racketeer Influenced And Corrupt Organizations Act. 

Meadows is also charged with soliciting an official to violate their oath of office related to the infamous 2020 phone call he arranged between Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — in which Trump asked the elections chief to ‘find’ purportedly missing ballots that would allow him to overcome his deficit against Biden in Georgia. 

He had denied all wrongdoing and argued the charged conduct comprises protected actions taken in his official capacity as chief of staff to the president. 

Fox News’ Chris Pandolfo contributed to this report.

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House Republicans James Comer and Marjorie Taylor Greene sent a letter Friday to the Department of Justice (DOJ) asking whether it is ‘upholding the rights of victims’ amid accusations Hunter Biden may have exploited prostitutes.

The call for an investigation follows years of scandal around racy photos of Hunter Biden on a laptop that was left at a Delaware computer repair shop. IRS whistleblower Joseph Ziegler testified in June the president’s son flew a list of women across state lines for sex, potentially violating federal laws meant to combat human trafficking.

The House Oversight Committee, chaired by Comer, wrote to the DOJ’s Office for Victims of Crime Director Kristina Rose Friday, saying information regarding the investigation should be sent by Sept. 22. 

‘These women may be victims under the Crime Victims’ Rights Act and may also be afforded mandatory restitution pursuant to the Mandatory Victim Restitution Act,’ the letter stated. ‘In light of DOJ’s refusal to communicate in a meaningful way with the Committee, we have great skepticism that DOJ has been adequately communicating with crime victims.’

Ziegler, who was investigating Hunter Biden for alleged tax violations, said during another hearing July 19 that certain tax write-offs Hunter made appeared to be related to sex workers. A so-called ‘golf membership’ was also discovered to be for a ‘sex club.’

‘DOJ’s decision to ignore the Committee’s request runs afoul of its own policies in the Justice Manual,’ the letter states. ‘Unfortunately, DOJ’s leadership continues to apply unwritten exceptions to its own rules and policies when the Bidens are involved.’

The Mann Act is a federal law that combats human trafficking and the interstate transportation of individuals, including women and minors, for immoral and unlawful purposes, such as prostitution or other illegal sexual activities.

Comer and Greene noted the DOJ ‘failed to respond to the Committee’ after its Aug. 25 letter inquiring into the ‘DOJ’s handling of victims’ rights’ was ignored.

‘Considering the seriousness of this obstructive behavior, we request information as to whether anyone advised you not to respond to our inquiry, including any Department employee at the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Delaware, DOJ Office of Legislative Affairs (OLA), Main Justice, or the White House,’ Comer and Greene wrote.

Greene and Comer want the DOJ to respond whether they ‘notified [victims] of their statutory rights’ in the Hunter Biden investigation, as well as the names of people who may have advised it ‘not to respond to the Committee’s letter’ in July. 

The House Republicans’ letter was sent as special counsel David Weiss prepares to indict Hunter on gun charges.

‘The Speedy Trial Act requires that the Government obtain the return of an indictment by a grand jury by Friday, September 29, 2023, at the earliest,’ according to court documents filed Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware. ‘The Government intends to seek the return of an indictment in this case before that date.’

Weiss, the U.S. attorney for Delaware, was designated as special counsel by Attorney General Merrick Garland last month. The appointment was made specifically to pursue tax fraud charges against the president’s son, extending jurisdiction beyond the Mid-Atlantic state. This decision followed the bombshell July court hearing where the Hunter Biden’s probation-only plea deal fell apart.

Hunter was expected to plead guilty in July to two misdemeanor tax counts of willful failure to pay federal income tax as part of a plea deal to avoid jail time on a felony gun charge. Instead, he pleaded not guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges and one felony gun charge.

Fox News’ Brooke Singman contributed to this report. 

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Is 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers, four-time NFL MVP, now of the New York Jets, past his prime?

By the looks of it in the Jets final preseason game, no. The veteran QB threw for 47 yards in a brief outing and fired a touchdown pass which was vintage Rodgers.

Thirty-six-year-old Lionel Messi, now of Inter Miami of Major League Soccer, certainly isn’t done. He scored Argentina’s lone goal in a 1-0 win over Ecuador in a 2026 World Cup qualifier.

Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds? Probably. He’s hitting .200.

CRYSTAL CLEAR: FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS MURKY

Votto, a potential Hall of Famer, stroked a meager .205 last season.

Injuries and time haven’t caught up to Rodgers and Messi.

But with Votto who turns 40 Sunday? Yes.

So here are three athletes, close to the same age, at different levels of proficiencies in their careers.

Which brings us to politics.

Politics is about ‘trends.’

‘Age’ and ‘health’ are the hottest patterns in politics.

Voters and reporters are now infatuated with politicians who are senior citizens or struggling with health problems.

President Biden. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., former President Trump, Sen. John Fetterman, D-Penn., have faced questions about their age and health.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., stepped down in January from her post at the age of 82. Now, 83, Pelosi remains in Congress as a rank-and-file member. But Democrats were raising questions about the long-term viability of Pelosi and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md. The 84-year-old Hoyer also stepped aside from his leadership position but remains in Congress.

Some of this stems from the fact that many of the nation’s most prominent politicians are older. The mean age in the Senate is now around 66. Ironically, the age in the House is slightly younger: around 58. In fact, the median House age declined over the past couple of years.

But there are several reasons why people are more focused on the age and health of politicians. It’s because older people now occupy positions of power. And, it’s more glaring when they suffer a health episode.

Look at President Biden. The oldest person ever elected Executive in Chief at age 77. If voters re-elect Mr. Biden, he’d be 86 at the end of a second-term. Moreover, presidential observers and critics often focus on Mr. Biden’s occasional verbal gaffes and other miscues.

This brings us to 81-year-old Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

McConnell missed several weeks over the winter after falling at a Washington, DC hotel. The Kentucky Republican sustained a concussion and a collapsed lung.

McConnell returned to the Senate this week for the first time since freezing at a press conference last week in northern Kentucky. McConnell also froze up the last time reporters saw McConnell during a Capitol Hill press conference on July 26.

When the Senate reconvened for the first time in nearly six weeks Tuesday, McConnell sent around a doctor’s note from Capitol Attending Physician Brian Monahan.

Monahan’s missive declared that McConnell wasn’t showing signs of Parkinson’s Disease and had not suffered strokes. So while Monahan ruled things out for McConnell, he certainly didn’t rule things in.

THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO MCCONNELL’S HEALTH AND A POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

So when McConnell met with the Congressional press corps for the first time since the July freezing episode, I posed the first question to the Leader.

‘Respectfully,’ I asked McConnell. ‘Can you tell us what is afflicting you?’

McConnell immediately pivoted to Monahan’s letter.

‘I don’t have anything to add to it and I think it should answer any reasonable questions,’ replied McConnell.

‘He didn’t tell us what it is,’ I countered. ‘Do you know what it is?’

McConnell only chuckled and turned away.

However, McConnell later appeared steely when asked about those who thought it was time for him to go.

‘I’m going to finish my term as Leader and I’m going to finish my Senate term,’ said a stern McConnell.

Most GOP senators appeared pleased with McConnell’s responses. The Leader assured senators about his health condition during a closed luncheon before the press briefing.

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., announced that McConnell told senators he had suffered two episodes and both were in public.

‘He did a good job,’ said Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who ran against McConnell for Leader last fall.

‘I thought Leader McConnell looked better yesterday than he did when he went to the break,’ said Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., who is a gynecologist. ‘I’ve seen steady improvement in his strength since recovering from his concussion as well. I think he may be having some symptoms from it.’

Marshall added that ‘cognitively, he’s doing great and had enough strength to raise $49 million last month.’

Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., is a gastroenterologist.

‘What I saw at lunch today, (McConnell) seemed quite capable of doing his job,’ said Cassidy.

But Cassidy wouldn’t delve deeper into the medical questions.

‘I’m not his doctor,’ said Cassidy. ‘Ask me about an LSU wide receiver. A sprained ankle. I’ll give you an opinion. It’s solely an opinion. This is a little bit more important than a wide receiver’s sprained ankle. So I’ll refrain.’

However, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., an ophthalmologist and frequent McConnell antagonist, did not refrain. Paul argued that McConnell’s malady may have been seizures. He criticized both McConnell and Monahan.

‘I think if you go halfway and you reveal stuff that doesn’t make any sense, it just leads to more questions,’ said Paul.

On FOX Business the next day, Paul characterized Monahan’s diagnosis as ‘inadequate and in all likelihood, not correct.’ 

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., is not a doctor, but the former Attorney General of Missouri. Hawley voted against McConnell last fall. However, Hawley says some Republicans are more than happy to defend McConnell yet question President Biden about his health.

‘I don’t think you can have it both ways,’ said Hawley. ‘It can’t be sauce for the goose, but not for the gander.’

McConnell’s freezing episodes were caught in the midst of scores of reporters and lots of TV cameras. So it’s hard to ignore.

But in addition to a surfeit of elderly politicians, we’re also in a period of iPhones, YouTube and constant video.

Few people outside of the Capitol witnessed the physical declines of former Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd, D-W.V., or Sen. Strom Thurmond, R-S.C., in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Go back a little further.

Not a lot of people ever heard of late House Appropriations Committee Chairman William Natcher, D-Ky. Natcher kept a small staff. Generally shunned the press. But he chaired one of the most important committees in Congress. Natcher also set the all-time record of consecutive roll call votes set in either body of Congress: 18,401.

In short, Natcher never missed a vote in more than four decades in the House.

However, Natcher fell ill with a heart ailment in early 1994. The House even suspended its business for a day in the late winter of 1994 – solely for Natcher’s benefit. Otherwise, Natcher would have missed a vote because he was in the hospital.

An ambulance finally delivered Natcher to the Capitol on March 3, 1994. Medical professionals wheeled Natcher on a gurney into the House chamber to vote – complete with an oxygen tank and intravenous tubes snaking everywhere.

There is little documentation of this spectacle – because it was 1994. And despite his powerful chairmanship, Natcher was so low-key, you couldn’t locate him on a bass clef. Very few even recall this incident.

Natcher never returned to the Capitol and died a few days later after 41 years in the House.

So are McConnell, President Biden, former President Trump, Feinstein, Fetterman and others fit to serve? Or should they give it up?

Hard to say.

It’s easier to tell in sports than politics.

Lionel Messi has scored 11 goals for Inter Miami.

And Joey Votto is hitting .205 and remains on the injured list.

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The Energy sector (XLE) has been enjoying a rally throughout the summer. Today. it logged a new all-time high on a small breakout. While the sector looks impervious, there are a few concerns that we should point out.

The first issue would be the overbought RSI. While a stock’s price can remain overbought, typically, when the RSI reaches this level, you will see at least a pause. The other issue is the “Bearish Shift” of the Silver Cross Index (SCI) as it crossed below its signal line. The rest of the indicators, including our primary Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), are bullish. You’ll notice that participation (%Stocks > 20/50/200EMAs) remains well above our bullish 50% threshold and really isn’t bleeding off much. Stochastics are comfortably above 80, suggesting internal strength.

Conclusion: The Energy sector looks very strong, but we are noticing a few problems under the surface. We should remember that overbought conditions can persist in a bull market, which XLE clearly is in. If the Silver Cross Index continues to lose ground, we would tighten stops on your Energy positions.

Would you like to be notified when major indexes, sectors and select industry groups see “Bullish/Bearish Shifts” and given the bias in the intermediate and long terms? You’ll find these in every DP Alert report!

Good Luck & Good Trading,

Erin Swenlin

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Bear Market Rules

Every trader has preferred ways to find market opportunities and select tradable stocks. Among these methods, which exist in great numbers, are those that concern “seasonality” or market patterns that tend to repeat, according to the calendar.

If you’re not entirely familiar with seasonality, it might not make much sense at first with regard to individual stocks. It makes sense with agricultural commodities simply because weather determines planting and harvest seasons. It also makes sense with energy commodities because, again, cold and hot weather tend to influence supply. Broad stock market seasonality might also make sense because holidays affect consumer buying behavior (think Santa Claus Rally).

However, individual stocks can and do have their seasonality patterns. What drives them? Anything from earnings season and consumer spending patterns to inventory levels, interest rates, and political events.

How Can I Detect Seasonality Patterns for Individual Stocks?

Finding seasonality-based trading opportunities on an individual stock level can be tricky. There aren’t many indicators that can do this. This “gap” is what the Williams True Seasonal indicator aims to fill—basically, detecting seasonal patterns on the scale of individual securities.

What is the ‘Williams True Seasonal’ Indicator?

Developed by Larry Williams in 1973, the Williams True Seasonal is a technical indicator designed to identify seasonal trends in the price of a security. As with most seasonality indicators, it measures the difference between a security’s price and its average price over a specific period.

What Makes the Williams True Seasonal Different from Other Indicators?

The Williams True Seasonal differs from other seasonal indicators in its use of data. More specifically, it avoids using out-of-sample data. For example, if you wish to determine the seasonal data for 2010, only the data up to 2010 would be employed.

Other seasonal indicators might use post-2010, which is a bit “off” considering that it’s using future data to calculate past seasonality. By limiting its data, the Williams True Seasonal might provide a more precise read on a stock’s seasonality.

Which time frame works best for the Williams True Seasonal? It works best for weekly and daily charts. That’s how Larry Williams designed it.

How to Use the Williams True Seasonal to Identify Tradable Stocks

Let’s take a look at the weekly SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) below.

CHART 1: WEEKLY CHART OF GLD. Contrary to popular wisdom, the summer months may not be the best months to load up on gold.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

The Williams True Seasonal indicator is available in StockChartsACP as a plug-in.

Once you’ve installed it, scroll down the available indicators list (it’s below the standard indicators), select Williams True Seasonal, and you’ll be ready to apply this indicator to your analysis.

Looking closely at the Williams True Seasonal indicator, note the following:

GLD tends to rise before the beginning of the year and peaks in April.Note how the pink dashed line highlighting this peak-to-trough in the Williams True Seasonal correlates with the blue dashed line on GLD’s price chart.Note that the April peaks look differently depending on whether GLD is trending or not (and this can affect the way you trade GLD).According to this seasonal pattern, it would be wise to buy gold toward the end of the year; if the market is not trending upward, it might even be a wise decision to sell around April. Come this December, will the end of 2023 offer another compelling buy point?Still, you have to be flexible, as not all buy (or sell) points match perfectly with the indicator (although it comes pretty close to it), and some volatile moves, such as the one we saw in 2020, can occur.

Next, let’s look at a weekly chart of IBM.

CHART 2: WEEKLY CHART OF IBM. Seasonal demand for IBM products may correspond with annual business spending toward the first of the year.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

IBM makes for an ideal case because its seasonal peaks and troughs are so well-defined. IBM’s buy point is toward the beginning of the year. In 2020, the big COVID Crash may have offset this seasonal trend, but it remained intact despite the uncertainties that pervaded global markets and economies. The Williams True Seasonal projects another buy point in 2024. That could mean IBM’s share price might dip before resuming this seasonal trend.

Now, let’s look at the Williams True Seasonal applied to daily charts.

CHART 3: DAILY CHART OF MCDONALDS (MCD). Do the troughs in the Williams True Seasonal indicator signal more burger cravings and spending or investment at the end of the first quarter of the year?Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Since the decline in 2020, McDonald’s (MCD) began exhibiting seasonal buy points in late March. The dips in the Williams True Seasonal indicator are quite pronounced, and although the market action corresponding to these buy points varies slightly, MCD has generally been on an uptrend, and the next buy point signal may take place again in late March, should the seasonal trend continue.

The Bottom Line

The Williams True Seasonal is not so much a timing indicator as it is an early warning signal and a stock selection tool. Trading the markets with a clear view of seasonality patterns can give you a significant advantage. While the Williams True Seasonal is a potent tool, combining it with other indicators he developed, such as those for timing markets, can help sharpen your approach and trading performance.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.