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FIRST ON FOX: An FBI special agent involved in the Hunter Biden probe told the House Judiciary Committee that they did not believe politics were involved in decision-making during the federal investigation into President Biden’s son, according to testimony reviewed by Fox News Digital.

The FBI agent participated in a transcribed interview behind closed doors Monday. Fox News Digital has reviewed a copy of the transcript of that testimony and agreed not to identify the agent.

The interview comes amid the House Judiciary Committee’s investigation into the probe after IRS whistleblower Gary Shapley alleged that prosecutorial decisions throughout the Hunter Biden probe were influenced by politics. David Weiss, who served as the U.S. Attorney for Delaware, has been leading the Hunter Biden investigation since its onset.

When the agent was pressed on whether they thought decisions made by the U.S. Attorney’s office were made to ‘give Hunter Biden some favoritism,’ the agent replied, ‘I do not.’

‘So you don’t think when Hunter Biden’s lawyers were notified of pending search warrants, that wasn’t an example of favoritism?’ Counsel asked.

The committee was then told that the agent was not able to speak about specific investigative steps.

Counsel also asked, ‘If members of the Biden family had information relevant to this investigation, would it be an example of political favoritism to shut down those interviews and not allow the investigators to conduct them?’

The agent, again, said it is an ‘ongoing matter,’ and said generally speaking, ‘there are various reasons for why those things may occur.’

The agent clarified and said it ‘depends.’

‘It’s just, you’re asking me to infer on a matter that I wasn’t specifically involved in at that time,’ the agent said. ‘I don’t know all the facts surrounding it. And so it’s very difficult to make that inference.’ 

The agent was asked about whether investigating the son of the president of the United States makes the case ‘more complicated.’

‘I think so — I’ve worked and overseen cases that have complications for various reasons,’ the agent said. ‘Yes, I’ll acknowledge the fact that I think the media has made it seem like it’s more significant in that sense, but that is not how we picture it, and ‘we’ as in the FBI.’

The majority counsel questioned the witness during the interview about some of Shapley’s allegations, which included prosecutors not questioning witnesses about the ‘big guy’ or ‘dad,’ an apparent reference to Joe Biden; investigators being prohibited from interviewing Biden family members about certain payments; and more.

‘When you add it all up, I mean, there were examples of suggested— where they were told to remove the subject’s name from certain documents and DOJ officials said: ‘well, it’ll get us most of the information we’re looking for’; the statute of limitations were specifically allowed to lapse; certain types of investigative actions were prohibited or delayed; the investigative team was excluded from certain meetings that in their own mind they weren’t felt they were ordinarily excluded from,’ the majority counsel said.

‘When you add all these up, I mean, isn’t it difficult to say that there wasn’t political favoritism?’

The agent responded: ‘When I add that up, and as I am trying to understand what may have happened before I arrive, and just what little bit I know of the folks presently, I don’t surmise that it had political affiliation.’

Instead, the agent attributed it to the probe ‘being very deliberate,’ which the agent said was characteristic of the Delaware attorney general’s office. 

The agent did not believe that Shapely is lying but said that he might be confused owing to miscommunication.

‘I think it’s possible. And, again, of my understanding, as well as my recollection of the meeting, I definitely think there is either some confusion or misunderstanding in things that were communicated,’ the agent said.

Hunter Biden was expected to plead guilty in July to two misdemeanor tax counts of willful failure to pay federal income tax as part of a plea deal to avoid jail time on a felony gun charge.

But U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika of the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware declined to accept the plea and pretrial diversion agreements with Hunter Biden during his first court appearance related to the charges. She described the DOJ’s deal as unconstitutional, ‘not standard’ and ‘different from what I normally see.’

Hunter Biden was forced to plead not guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges and one felony gun charge.

Last week, Weiss, who is now acting as special counsel, told Noreika that his team intends to indict Hunter Biden on a federal gun charge by the end of September.

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Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, used President Biden’s own words against him on Wednesday while calling on him to drop his 2024 bid for re-election and join him in retirement at the end of his term.

Romney’s challenge to Biden comes just hours after the first-term senator officially announced he would not be seeking a second term, citing his own advanced age as his main reason for the decision.

‘President Biden, when he was running, said he was a transitional figure to the next generation. Well, time to transition,’ Romney said when asked by a reporter if his decision not to run for re-election because of his age should also apply to Biden, 80, and former President Donald Trump, 77.

Romney’s comments were in reference to Biden calling himself a ‘transition candidate’ during his 2020 campaign for the presidency, something he later meant he would be someone who would help pave the way for a new generation of Democratic leadership.

‘I think it would be a great thing if both President Biden and former President Trump were to stand aside and let their respective party pick someone in the next generation … I think both parties would be far better served if they were going to be represented by people other than those of us from the baby boom generation,’ he added.

Concern over Biden’s age amid his re-election has continued to grow, even from within his own party. A recent Associated Press-NORC poll found 69% of Democrats think Biden is too old to run again.

Romney’s inclusion of Trump in his concern about the age of the two presidential front-runners joins that of Trump’s closest rival in the Republican primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who said during a recent interview on CBS that the former president’s age was ‘a legitimate concern’ for voters going into 2024.

The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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A federal judge in Albuquerque, New Mexico, has issued a temporary restraining order blocking key parts of Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s executive order suspending open and concealed carry across Albuquerque and the surrounding Bernalillo County for at least 30 days.

U.S. District Court Judge David Urias issued the order on Wednesday, blocking the portion of the order that prohibits lawful gun owners from carrying their guns in public for 30 days, ruling that it’s not enforceable.

‘The violation of a constitutional right, even for minimal periods of time, unquestionably constitutes irreparable injury,’ Urias said during the hearing.

The temporary restraining order will remain in effect until at least Oct. 3, when the next hearing is scheduled.

Lujan Grisham on Thursday announced that she needed to respond to recent gun-related deaths, which include an 11-year-old boy who was shot and killed while outside a minor league baseball stadium. Six different lawsuits were filed against the executive order.

Urias was appointed by President Biden.

Lujan Grisham said in a statement on the temporary restraining order, stating that ‘I refuse to be resigned to the status quo.’

‘Today a judge temporarily blocked sections of our public health order but recognized the significant problem of gun violence in this state, particularly involving the deaths of children,’ she wrote. ‘As governor, I see the pain of families who lost their loved ones to gun violence every single day, and I will never stop fighting to prevent other families from enduring these tragedies.’

‘Over the past four days, I’ve seen more attention on resolving the crisis of gun violence than I have in the past four years. Now is the time to bring clarity of purpose: New Mexicans must again feel safe walking home from school, driving to the grocery store, or leaving their hometown baseball stadium,’ Lujan Grisham added. ‘And I call on leaders across the state, from local law enforcement to the Legislature to mayors and county commissioners: Stand with me to enact solutions that save people’s lives. Throwing up our hands is not an option.’ 

The New Mexico governor said that her administration ‘intends to update the public health order with additional measures to address public safety and health shortly. ‘

The suspension of open and concealed carry in the defined area was classified as an emergency public health order.

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I doubt any of our readers are too surprised by the CPI reading coming in a bit hotter than expected.

The bulk of it was in energy costs. Food costs were, mixed with bread and meat, up, while eggs and milk were down. Services inflation was up slightly, while shelter costs were down slightly. All in all, without some black swan event, we can begin to look for normalization of interest rates to core inflation.

Most economists and analysts believe that the federal-funds effective rate target will hold steady at its current range of 5.25% to 5.50% With core inflation close to the current fed funds rate, many economists are talking about a normalization, or a point where the rates are high enough to control inflation. If that is true, it seems to us that the public will have to switch the mindset from rate cuts to rate pause at around 5%, as this is more in line with a healthier economy.

As long as the S&P 500 outperforms long bonds (TLT), risk is on.

Was there damage from the rapid rise in rates? Sure. Nonetheless, we do not want rates much lower — nor do we want them higher. What we want is a long duration at the current levels of inflation and interest rates, with no surprises.

Of course, that is the rub. No surprise means wage inflation and strikes, geopolitics, BRICS, mother nature, trade wars and so on all must behave. This is why we are monitoring the TLTs so carefully, especially as they perform against the benchmark.

Our Leadership indicator shows TLT still underperforming the SPY. Our Real Motion indicator shows a mean reversion in momentum that happened in late to mid-August. Interestingly, it corresponded with a bottom in the TLT, which, to date, is holding up. The momentum phase is bearish along with price.

We want to see the momentum and price flatline, neither spiking higher nor going lower from here.

On price, the July 6-month calendar range low is well overhead at 98.80. Ideally, to see a good rally in the indices, we want that normalization. But we don’t always get what we want, right?

Maybe the Fed has…

And maybe this is the calm before the storm.

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish discusses AAPL in the wake of the iPhone 15 announcement on Business First AM.

Mish explains how to follow the numbers in oil, gas, gold, indices, and the dollar daytrading the CPI in this video from CMC Markets.

Mish talks commodities, and how growth could fall while raw materials could run after CPI, in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg.

In this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne, Mish and Charles discuss the normalization of rates and the benefit, plus stocks/ETFs to buy.

Mish chats about sugar, geopolitics, social unrest and inflation in this video from CNBC Asia.

Mish talks inflation that could lead to recession on Singapore Breakfast Radio.

Coming Up:

September 14: Mario Nawfal Twitter Spaces

October 29-31: The Money Show

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 440 support, 458 resistance.Russell 2000 (IWM): 185 pivotal, 180 support.Dow (DIA): 347 pivotal.Nasdaq (QQQ): 363 support, over 375 looks better.Regional banks (KRE): 44 pivotal.Semiconductors (SMH): 150-161 range to watch.Transportation (IYT): Needs to get back over 247 to look healthier.Biotechnology (IBB): Compression between 124-130.Retail (XRT): 62.90, the July calendar range low, broke down, along with IYT — 2 negative signs and an indication of stress on the consumer.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Back in March 2023, I wrote a piece here titled, “Three Signs Employment Is Going to Take a Hit“. It looked at 3 different leading indication relationships that were all calling for a rise in the unemployment rate. This week’s chart takes a closer look at one of those, the message from the inflation rate.

The key insight for understanding this relationship is that the plot of the CPI inflation rate has been shifted forward by 2 years to reveal how the unemployment rate tends to follow in the same footsteps after that lag time. This chart frustrates a lot of classical economists, who believe what they were taught about the Phillips Curve. The Phillips Curve hypothesizes that high unemployment leaves people with less money to spend, and so the economy slows, which brings prices down, curing inflation.

That is the operating philosophy of the Federal Reserve, and it is wrong.

The real relationship is that high inflation brings high unemployment, and low inflation leads to lower unemployment 2 years later. So if you were in charge of the economy, and wanted to ensure maximum employment, what you should do is somehow arrange for zero percent inflation, and then just wait two years.

There have been instances when this model did not work as well. The COVID Crash is an obvious example. That event, and the government’s overwhelming stimulus response, broke a lot of economic models, and understandably so.

We can also see that the 2008-09 economic depression, which followed the so-called “Great Financial Crisis”, brought unemployment at a much higher rate than hinted at by this model. That came about because the Fed was overly aggressive in trying to undo the excesses of Greenspan’s final years as Fed chairman, when he kept rates too low, which fueled the housing bubble. Congress piled on by mandating “mark to market” accounting of distressed assets, which had a positive feedback effect, exacerbating the economic damage.

Even though the magnitude of the 2009 unemployment rate peak was higher than suggested, it did arrive on time according to this model, as did the economic recovery, which matched the waning rate of inflation 2 years before.

Another interesting anomaly came in 2017, when this model said that the unemployment rate was supposed to have bottomed and turned upward, but instead it kept declining all the way to Feb. 2020, when the COVID Crash disrupted the nice correlation. The tax cuts which were implemented in 2017 arguably had a big effect on business confidence, allowing the unemployment rate to keep falling in spite of inflation’s message, but at a cost of seeing the total federal debt rise by between $600 billion to $800 billion per year in 2017-2019. It rose a lot more in 2020 with all of the COVID spending.

Now, in 2023, the CPI spike 2 years ago is saying that we should be expecting a rise in the unemployment rate, but it is slow in getting started. The latest numbers for August showed a rise to 3.8%, up off of the low of 3.4% in January 2023. The CPI inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, and so, if the 2-year lag time works perfectly, then that would mean a peak for the unemployment rate in June 2024. You can bet that unemployment will be a big topic in the upcoming presidential debates ahead of the November 2024 election.

The unknown part of this is how much response we will see in the unemployment rate, which is thus far being slow to start its rise. The extra post-COVID stimulus may have been responsible for keeping companies full of cash to keep on their employees, albeit at a cost of having the total federal debt rise by more than $2 trillion versus a year before.

The latest CPI data just released on Sep. 13, 2023 showed CPI rising 3.7% versus a year ago. This is not good news for the future employment prospects 2 years from now, once the 2-year lag time goes by. The Federal Reserve is not even reaching its illegal mandate of 2% inflation, despite raising rates up so high that it has effectively killed the real estate market.

I am not speaking lightly when I say that the Fed’s 2% inflation target is illegal. Most people, including Federal Reserve staffers, seem unaware that Congress passed an actual statute back in 1978 mandating that once the inflation rate got back down below 3%, then the Fed’s inflation target rate would be “zero per centum”.

Now admittedly, it is tough to expect the Fed to accomplish that using the limited tools it has, especially when Congress goes throwing around so much deficit spending to “help” the economy. In that circumstance, it is not the Fed’s proper role to adjust its own target illegally to 2% (which it is still not meeting). If Congress is mandating a target that the Fed cannot meet because of Congress’ own deficit spending, then the proper action is for the FOMC members to either ask Congress for a different target, or tell Congress that they cannot comply with that law and must resign. I don’t expect that to happen any time soon.

But next time you hear anyone talking about “the Fed’s 2% inflation target”, please kindly inform such people that, by statute, the Fed’s statutory target is actually zero. And if we could actually get inflation down to 0%, then that would be good for the jobs market, 2 years later.

In this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s Halftime, Pete reviews 6 ETFs that are in different stages of trends. Two in the banking sector are in downtrends that are undeniable: KRE and KBE. This review ties in the recent commentary from Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan. With that, Pete reviews the banking sector and the upcoming Fed meeting. Charting the course for Fed moves, Pete pulls up the Fed Funds rate compared to the unemployment rate; it shows a consistent pattern that he points out as “one to watch” if things change. To round out the show, he reviews the equal-weight ratio of the consumer discretionary and the consumer staple funds; he then reviews the chart of NVDA, showing four gaps — one which is close to occurring, and one that would not be welcomed if it were to occur.

This video originally premiered on September 13, 2023. You can watch on our dedicated Halftime by Chaikin Analytics page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

You can view all previously recorded episodes of Halftime by Chaikin Analytics with Pete Carmasino at this link.

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, guest Julius de Kempenaer of RRG Research shows how his market visualizations still show stocks over bonds and offense over defense. Host David Keller, CMT highlights one industry sector breaking down due to higher crude oil prices.

This video originally premiered on September 13, 2023. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon LIVE at 4pm ET. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

FIRST ON FOX: GOP Congressman Ralph Norman suggested to reporters on Tuesday night that he is strongly considering running against South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham for his Senate seat.

‘Yeah, I’m tired of Lindsey,’ Norman, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, told Fox News Digital’s Liz Elkind on Tuesday night when asked about running against Graham. 

‘I put out, I’m looking at it,’ Norman continued. ‘In politics today that’s a long time, the 2026 race, but I’m tired of Lindsey. He’s done a good job on good judges, but he should. He’s the one who locked us in on the spending spree.’

‘I’ve said it, it’s not new,’ Norman added.

‘Graham won’t tell him that because I’m going to run against him,’ Norman could be heard saying on the phone to an unknown individual shortly before speaking to reporters. 

Graham’s office declined to comment. 

Norman has represented South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District since 2017 and previously served as a South Carolina State representative. 

Graham has represented South Carolina in the Senate since 2003 and won his last re-election in 2020 by a margin of ten points. 

A Norman campaign would be running to the right of Graham who, despite past support of former President Trump, has faced criticism from GOP voters and was showered with boos at an event supporting Trump in South Carolina in July. 

Norman has been rumored to be considering a run for months and told reporters in July he was ‘not ruling it out.’ 

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Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., said Tuesday that she would like to see ‘a very deep dive’ into House Republicans’ impeachment inquiry into President Biden ‘no matter how long it takes.’

Greene’s comments come as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., announced that he is directing an impeachment inquiry against Biden. The Georgia congresswoman said following McCarthy’s announcement that the inquiry ‘may take months and months.’

‘It may go all the way to the November election. But what we need to do is we need to investigate Joe Biden,’ Greene told reporters, according to Fox 5 Atlanta. ‘But we also need to investigate the web of people that exist in our federal agencies, the FBI, the DOJ, the CIA, and many others, serving not only in this administration, the former administration and the one before it, maybe even further, we need to find the people that have covered up Joe Biden’s crimes and all of the Biden family’s corruption.’

Greene said removing corruption from the federal government is most important to her and that the inquiry is a good way to start. She claimed the move is not politically motivated, saying that Americans are struggling under the Biden administration ‘with a wide open border and invasion of illegal immigrants’ and inflation.

‘They can’t afford their electric bills, they can’t afford their gas bills,’ she said. They can’t afford groceries. That’s what the American people know. And they know that politicians like Joe Biden, who’s been in this place in office for over 50 years have gotten richer and richer and richer every year. They’re in office, and they know why. And I’m really excited. We’re doing this impeachment inquiry, because I believe we’re going to expose the truth.’

The impeachment inquiry comes as McCarthy was facing heightened pressure from Greene and other GOP lawmakers, as well as former President Trump to investigate the sitting president.

McCarthy said in a statement Tuesday that the House’s probes this year into the Biden family’s foreign business dealings have revealed a ‘culture of corruption’ that requires further investigation.

‘These are allegations of abuse of power, obstruction and corruption,’ McCarthy said.

The Speaker said he will direct the chairmen of the House Judiciary, Oversight and Ways and Means committees to lead the impeachment inquiry into Biden. The committees have been working together for months on investigations into the Biden family.

The White House described the inquiry as ‘extreme politics at its worst.’

‘House Republicans have been investigating the President for 9 months, and they’ve turned up no evidence of wrongdoing,’ White House spokesperson Ian Sams said in a statement. ‘His own Republican members have said so.’

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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An Oregon law dubbed the nation’s ‘most extreme’ gun control measure heads to trial next week in a case that has drawn close attention from firearm advocates and opponents.

‘I have never seen this many people so interested in a legal proceeding,’ attorney Tony Aiello Jr. told Fox News.

‘This case is about a bare majority of voters passing a poorly-written ballot measure that erodes, and I would say erases, a constitutional right,’ added Aiello, who is representing a pair of Harney County gun owners challenging Measure 114 under the Oregon Constitution.

Oregonians passed Measure 114 last November with 50.65% of the vote, with voters in just six of the state’s 36 counties supporting it. The law, which groups like the NRA’s legislative arm deem ‘the nation’s most extreme gun control Initiative,’ requires a permit to purchase any gun and bans the sale of magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds.

But the law hasn’t taken effect due to immediate legal challenges at both the federal and state level.

Federal Judge Karin Immergut ruled in July that Oregon’s law is in line with a U.S. tradition of ‘regulating uniquely dangerous features of weapons and firearms to protect public safety.’ Plaintiffs are appealing Immergut’s ruling to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

Aiello, meanwhile, will go to court on Monday for Harney County gun owners Joseph Arnold and Cliff Asmussen, arguing that Measure 114 doesn’t pass muster under the Oregon Constitution because it would operate as an outright ban.

LAWYER: OREGON GUN CONTROL MEASURE ‘ERASES’ CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS:

The interfaith group Lift Every Voice Oregon crafted the measure and collected more than 130,000 signatures to place it on the ballot last fall. The group argues a permit-to-purchase system will reduce homicides, suicides and other shootings.

‘When our neighbors are bleeding, we cannot stand idly by,’ Rev. Mark Knutson, one of the chief petitioners for the measure, previously told The Oregonian. ‘We had an imperative to act.’

Representatives of Lift Every Voice Oregon did not respond to emails requesting an interview.

Gun sales surged after the measure passed late last year, with Oregon State Police fielding thousands of new background check requests each day.

Salem pawn shop owner Bryan Fitzgerald told Fox News he had trouble keeping guns on the shelves for a while. Firearms previously made up about 30% of his business at Elite Buyers NW but now account for 50-60% of sales, he estimates.

‘Ballot Measure 114 really made everything just absolutely crazy,’ he said.

Fitzgerald is closely watching the measure’s legal battles, though he admits he’s in a better position than many firearm dealers since his pawn shop has a diverse inventory ranging from jewelry and electronics to musical instruments and tools.

‘If we were just a gun shop, I would be really, really scared,’ he said. ‘I wish the people that were making laws about firearms weren’t anti-firearm.’

Much of the criticism of the measure centers around the permit system. Measure 114 requires that prospective gun buyers complete ‘in-person demonstration of the applicant’s ability to lock, load, unload, fire and store a firearm before an instructor certified by a law enforcement agency’ — a much stricter process than what is currently required to obtain even a concealed handgun license in Oregon.

Police and sheriffs said in December there were no training programs in the state that satisfy all the permit requirements. While Oregon State Police did not respond to questions about whether such programs have been launched since then, Fitzgerald said he keeps in regular contact with law enforcement who have told him nothing has changed.

But Aiello won’t be able to mention that in court.

Circuit Judge Robert S. Raschio granted the state’s motion to exclude allegations that police would not be able to quickly process permits if Measure 114 is allowed to take effect because it would be pure speculation. The state further argued the measure ‘provides a clear, speedy remedy’ if Oregonians encounter a delay or denial of their permits. Those whose permit applications are denied or not processed within 30 days can petition their local circuit court, according to the ballot measure text.

‘I’m just not going to guess what the program is going to look like,’ Raschio said, according to The Oregonian. ‘I find it persuasive that the case law says that you can’t speculate how a law is going to be applied,’ he added, ‘and this law has never been applied to anyone.’

But Raschio also dealt a win to the gun owners, approving their motions to prohibit testimony on the success of other states’ permit-to-purchase programs in reducing shootings, the destructiveness of high-capacity magazines or victim testimony on the loss of loved ones from shootings.

The trial is expected to last through next Friday. Regardless of the outcome, Aiello said he thinks all sides in the debate expect the case to eventually reach the Oregon Supreme Court.

To hear more about the Measure 114 challenge, click here.

Ramiro Vargas contributed to the accompanying video.

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