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In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave sits down with Ralph Acampora, CMT, co-founder of the CMT Association, for a memorable conversation on all things technical analysis. They review lessons learned from the October 2022 market low, words of wisdom for traders new to technical analysis, and what a long-term chart of the bond yields can tell you about interest rates in 2023.

This video originally premiered on September 14, 2023. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon LIVE at 4pm ET. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Alex and Tyler present trend analysis across the asset classes, sectors, and individual securities. The continued strong “Go” conditions in the US Dollar index (UUP) and US Treasury rates ($TNX) on both the daily and weekly timeframes highlights some headwinds for equity indices to move higher.

This video originally premiered on September 14, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

Learn more about the GoNoGo ACP plug-in with the FREE starter plug-in or the full featured plug-in pack.

Many of the forecasts I hear regarding bonds seem to be based upon what bonds have done for most of the last 40 years, without acknowledging what has happened more recently. The chart below shows that 30-Year T-Bonds were in a rising trend from the 1982 low, but, in early 2020, they made a long-term top and began trending downward. That downtrend lasted long enough for price to violate the rising trend line, which is strong evidence that the long-term trend has now shifted downward. Technically, we should expect that this downtrend will continue for a long time, probably decades.

The problem with long-term charts is that we get to review huge segments of time without experiencing the tedium of the normal real-time market ebb and flow. For example, while the price trend from 1982 was primarily up, there were periods of a year or more when price moved down or sideways, so in spite of the dominant downtrend, it is likely that bonds will rally soon, and that the rally may last for quite a while. When that happens, I caution against assuming that the long-term trend is changing to up. Maybe it is, but it probably isn’t.

Conclusion: It is hard for people to abandon investment techniques that have mostly worked for 40 years, but it is clear that the paradigm has shifted, and that a new approach is necessary.

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The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed below the 200-day SMA for the first time since, well, June 1st. The last cross was not that long ago and recent crosses simply resulted in whipsaws. Truth be told, 200-day SMA crosses are not that relevant for IWM.

Testing 200-day SMA Crosses for IWM (and SPY)

The chart below shows IWM in the top window and the Percent above MA (1,200,1) indicator in the lower window. This indicator turns green when IWM closes above its 200-day and red when IWM closes below. There were fourteen crosses in the past year alone. Note that this indicator is part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

IWM 200-day SMA

A dozen crosses and nothing to show makes sense because IWM is stuck in a trading range. Moving averages are trend-following indicators that perform poorly when price moves sideways. The chart above shows IWM trading between 162 and 200 since last September (blue shading). Moving average signals are resulting in whipsaws.

One year is not long enough to decide the efficacy of a moving average cross. As such, I tested the 200-day cross in IWM over the last 20 years. The first test is a long and short test. This means buying/covering on a cross above the 200-day SMA and selling/shorting on a cross below the 200-day SMA. As the top line shows, such a strategy did not work because the Compound Annual Return was -3.02%.

The second line shows a long only strategy and the 200-day cross managed to make some money. Not much though. The Compound Annual Return was a meager 2.09%. This meager return came with a high cost because the Maximum Drawdown was a whopping 38.2%. For comparison, SPY generated at 5.68% Compound Annual Return with a 21.98% Maximum Drawdown. There is some value in SPY signals. As such, I would ignore the 200-day SMA crosses in IWM and pay attention to signals in SPY.

Check out the Chart Trader report at TrendInvestorPro to learn more on current market conditions. Thursday’s report covered:

risk-on/risk-off dynamics in the marketlack of participation in two breadth indicatorsa key test for the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF a key tech ETF breaks and another teetersthree defensive stocks with bullish breakouts

 Click here to learn more and gain immediate access.

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Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz is stepping down from the coffee chain’s board, the company said Wednesday.

“I look forward to supporting this next generation of leaders to steward Starbucks into the future as a customer, supporter and advocate in my role as chairman emeritus,” Schultz said in a statement.

The company said the change was part of a planned transition, but Schultz, 70, didn’t provide a reason for his exit.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A revised version of the federal policy known as the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which prevents the deportation of thousands of immigrants brought to the U.S. as children, has once again been deemed illegal by a federal judge who gave the same ruling previously.

U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen said in his decision Wednesday that on July 16, 2021, the court vacated the DACA program created by the 2012 DACA Memorandum, which prohibited the U.S., its departments, agencies, officers, agents and employees from granting new DACA applications and administering the program.

Hanen’s decision then was affirmed by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, and Wednesday, reaffirmed by him.

‘That program is vacated, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is enjoined from implementing Final Rule DACA until a further order of the Court, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, or the Supreme Court of the United States,’ Hanen wrote.

The judge also said defendants may continue to administer the program to individuals who received their initial DACA status before July 16, 2021, which may include processing and granting DACA renewal applications for those individuals.

He also said DHS can continue to accept initial applications, though it ‘may not grant any,’ and the department was advised to post a public notice of the injunction on its website and websites of all relevant agencies involved in DACA administration or processing.

‘A Final Judgment has not been entered in this case, so all matters not being addressed by an appellate court are still pending in this Court and subject to its jurisdiction,’ Hanen wrote.

The decision comes more than a month after attorneys representing the states of Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Carolina, West Virginia, Kansas and Mississippi — all states that sued to end the Obama-era program — as well as lawyers for the U.S. Department of Justice and DACA recipients were to appear before Hanen to debate the issue.

Hanen, in 2021, declared DACA illegal, ruling that the program had not been subjected to public notice and comment periods required under the federal Administrative Procedures Act. He also said the nine states seeking to stop DACA had standing to file their lawsuit because they had been harmed by the program.

The White House issued the following statement Wednesday night expressing its disappointment with the ruling.

‘We are deeply disappointed in today’s DACA ruling from the District Court in Southern Texas. On day one of his Administration, President Biden issued a memorandum directing the federal government to take all appropriate actions to ‘preserve and fortify’ the DACA policy. Consistent with that directive, the Administration has defended the DACA policy from legal challenges, and issued a final rule codifying this longstanding policy. During this Administration, hundreds of thousands of DACA recipients have been able to live and work lawfully in our country without fear of deportation.

‘As we have long maintained, we disagree with the District Court’s conclusion that DACA is unlawful, and will continue to defend this critical policy from legal challenges. While we do so, consistent with the court’s order, DHS will continue to process renewals for current DACA recipients and DHS may continue to accept DACA applications.’

The White House added that it is ‘committed to protecting all the Dreamers’ who have enriched communities and the country, and it will call on Congress to provide ‘permanent protection’ to all who remain in the US.

The states claimed they incur hundreds of millions of dollars in health care, education and other costs when immigrants are allowed to remain in the country illegally.

While the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld Hanen’s ruling in 2022, the court sent the case back to the judge to review changes made to the program by the Biden administration.

In court filings, Texas and the other states argued that the updated program is essentially the same as the 2012 memo that first created it and remains ‘unlawful and unconstitutional.’ The states also argued that the White House overstepped its authority by granting immigration benefits that are for Congress to decide.

The U.S. Justice Department argued in court filings that the states failed to show any direct injury because of DACA, and that Congress has given the Department of Homeland Security the ‘authority and duty to set immigration enforcement policies.’

There were 580,310 people enrolled in DACA at the end of December, according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Former Vice President Mike Pence – and candidate for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination – said he commends U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., for blocking hundreds of military appointments in response to the Pentagon’s controversial abortion policy announced earlier this year.

At a town hall hosted by NewsNation in Chicago Wednesday night, Pence was asked by the host if Tuberville should stand down as his position on the matter faces criticism by former secretaries of defense.

The former veep, who is staunchly against abortion, responded clearly with, ‘No. The Pentagon should stand down.’

Adding that he is pro-life and he ‘[doesn’t] apologize for it,’ Pence went on to question why taxpayer dollars are being used to ‘undermine pro-life laws in states around the country.’ He said the idea that generals at the Pentagon on a ‘liberal Democrat agenda’ are using the money to undermine state laws ‘is just wrong.’

‘I commend Sen. Tuberville, and rather than asking him to stand down, I’d ask the Pentagon to stand down,’ Pence said. ‘I promise you, if I’m President of the United States, we’re going to get all this woke business out of the Pentagon.’

The Pentagon’s formal plan, which was released on Feb. 16, revealed it would pay for the travel of service members who seek an abortion or want to accompany a spouse who is seeking to terminate their pregnancy. It said troops would have up to five months, or 20 weeks into their pregnancy, to notify their departments and request travel for an abortion.

‘The DOD health care provider will place the service member considering pregnancy termination in a medical temporary nondeployable status without reference to the service member’s pregnancy status, until appropriate medical care and the necessary recovery period are complete,’ the memorandum stated.

The memo also directs the military branches to grant administrative absence – which includes no loss of pay – for those seeking abortion or fertility treatments not covered by military health care providers.

Pence continued to criticize the policy by saying, if elected, he would ensure that the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff focus on the US military’s mission, ‘which is preparedness and ensuring that they can defend this nation and defend our interests around the world.’

He added that Tuberville is defending the rights of ‘tens of millions of pro-life, taxpaying Americans’ who are ‘happy to invest in our national defense’ but do not support the military using taxpayer dollars to advance a ‘liberal social agenda.’

When asked what his response would be if a Democratic senator held up military promotions to advance a ‘woke’ agenda, Pence said he would take it to the American people and ‘see what they think about that.’

The approval of military nominations and promotions is historically a bipartisan duty of the U.S. Senate, but Tuberville’s blanket hold shattered the norm, prompting criticism by defense officials and members of both parties on claims of jeopardizing national security.

Tuberville has said he refuses to budge unless Democrats allow a vote on the policy. The Senate could move forward by voting on each individual nomination, but Democrats argue that would tie up the floor for months and giving in would encourage similar situations in the future.

The Pentagon has estimated that the move has already stalled more than 260 nominations of senior officers in all five branches – a figure could potentially balloon to 650 by the end of the year.

Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said earlier this week the Pentagon was not subsidizing abortions, but ‘providing equitable reproductive health care for all of our service members.’

‘The Department does not pay for abortions,’ Ryder said. ‘What this is doing is facilitating access which a service member would have had previously.’

He added: ‘[I]f you are now assigned to a state where those types of services are not available, we’re not going to pay for those services. But what we will do is we will – just like we would if you were stationed overseas – get you to a place where you can then pay for those services.’

Ryder said the Pentagon did not want a force comprising ‘haves and have-nots where some people are going to have access and some people are not, by virtue of where the military assigns them, period.’

Fox News Digital’s Bradford Betz contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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Several Senate Republicans are uniting in support of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s move to initiate an impeachment inquiry against President Biden despite a growing number of skeptical GOP leaders in the upper chamber.

The inquiry will determine whether there are grounds to bring formal charges (articles of impeachment) against Biden over allegations of ‘abuse of power, obstruction, and corruption,’ McCarthy said Tuesday.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said Wednesday on his ‘Verdict with Ted Cruz’ podcast that he’s been ‘calling for the House to open impeachment inquiries for months.’

‘I think the evidence long ago cleared that threshold, but they finally done it,’ he said.

‘Joe Biden’s confession on tape is direct evidence that he committed one of the critical elements of bribery,’ Cruz later said. ‘Now, we don’t yet have direct evidence of every element of the crime, but we have direct evidence of one of the most critical aspects of the crime, which is the quote that Joe Biden has admitted and that is unequivocally direct evidence, and it’s pretty damn compelling.’

Meanwhile, Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., told Fox News Digital on Wednesday that he didn’t think ‘we would be down this road’ if the Biden administration was ‘being open and transparent with everybody to begin with.’

‘There was a lot of information that was requested by the committee that has jurisdiction, from the Ways and Means [Committee] to Judiciary to Oversight,’ he said. ‘And the fact is, is they were slow-balling or just refusing to share the information.’

If enough evidence is compiled and articles of impeachment are sent over to the upper chamber, Mullin said, ‘Then it’s our job to put him on trial and, if so, convict him.’

Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., said the House has ‘done an excellent job trying to uncover the tangled web of corruption that we’ve seen coming out of the Biden administration and specifically the Biden family.’

‘Clearly, there are facts that need further investigation,’ he said. ‘The House is headed in the right direction.’

Also on Tuesday, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told reporters that he would probably be a ‘yes’ vote on impeaching the president, The Messenger reported.

‘If I had any legitimate questions, and I think there are questions about the narrative, yeah, I would,’ he said.

‘I’ve been involved in every impeachment in this country but one,’ Graham said.

Although Graham supports an inquiry, he said that ‘we need to have structure here’ in response to McCarthy evading a floor vote before launching the inquiry. McCarthy said former Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi created that precedent when she sidestepped a vote to impeach former President Donald Trump for the second time in 2021.

Sen. Mike Braun, R-Ind., also said in a statement Tuesday that ‘serious allegations’ have been elevated about Biden’s ‘involvement with his son’s overseas business dealings that can’t be ignored.’

‘We need to get to the full truth, and an impeachment inquiry is the right way to do that,’ he said.

Conversely, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has not indicated his support of the inquiry. He told reporters Tuesday when asked about the House’s effort: ‘I don’t think Speaker McCarthy needs any advice from the Senate on how to run the House.’

White House spokesperson for oversight and investigations Ian Sams slammed the effort as ‘extreme politics.’

COMER DEMANDS STATE DEPT EXPLAIN ‘SUDDEN’ DECISIONS LEADING TO FIRING OF UKRAINIAN PROSECUTOR PROBING BURISMA

‘House Republicans have been investigating the President for 9 months, and they’ve turned up no evidence of wrongdoing. His own GOP members have said so. He vowed to hold a vote to open impeachment, now he flip flopped (sic) because he doesn’t have support. Extreme politics at its worst,’ Sams wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

The House is probing Biden’s foreign business ties with his son, Hunter, in Ukraine and China. Republicans hope to unearth bribery negotiations that suggest Biden leveraged his position as then-vice president under former President Barack Obama for personal gain.

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., will lead the inquiry alongside House Oversight Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo.

Should the House vote to impeach Biden, the Senate would serve as a tribunal where senators would review evidence, listen to witnesses and cast votes for the acquittal or conviction of the impeached official.

GOP legislators may face an uphill battle as the Democrat-controlled Senate is unlikely to convict Biden. Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., on Wednesday called the decision to launch an impeachment inquiry ‘absurd.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

FIRST ON FOX: A leading marine industry association is suing the federal government over what it argues is an unconstitutional bureaucratic system that is creating burdensome regulations by targeting blue-collar fishermen.

The New England Fishermen’s Stewardship Association (NEFSA), which was founded in May to unite a variety of marine stakeholders, filed the lawsuit against Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, the National Marine Fisheries Service and two regulators. The lawsuit — filed this month in the U.S. District Court for the District of Maine — takes aim at regional councils set up to govern the fishing industry.

‘When I was a vessel captain, the New England Fishery Management Council controlled every facet of my business, from catch quotas to conservation measures,’ NEFSA CEO Jerry Leeman said in a statement shared with Fox News Digital. 

‘Despite the significant power council members exercise, they are shielded from democratic control and political accountability,’ he continued. ‘We live in a democracy and our fishery is a public resource. The public needs to be able to participate in its management and care.’

Under the 1976 Magnuson-Stevens Act, Congress established eight regional fishery management councils, which are tasked with regulating marine resources. As a result, NEFSA said America’s oceans ‘have become Constitution free zones.’

According to the NEFSA, the law allows the regional councils to essentially establish significant rules that affect the fishing industry by decree. While such rulemakings are legally reviewed by the federal government, the councils have final say when finalizing them.

In addition, the NEFSA said council members are given unprecedented federal protections from removal, that many members cannot be removed for any reason and that the councils’ ‘selection and removal criteria are patently unconstitutional.’

‘Despite the national importance of offshore fishing regulation, Congress has removed the issue from democratic control,’ the lawsuit states. ‘Rather than make these decisions itself or vest them in executive agencies accountable to the elected President, Congress has assigned control of the nation’s fisheries to novel federal councils that violate the Constitution’s structural protections in multiple respects.’

‘Councils operate independently, free of administrative oversight. They cannot be removed at will, if they are removable at all,’ it continues. ‘And their policy judgments cannot be overturned by any federal official that answers to the President — or even by the President himself.’

The NEFSA said the issue is of particular importance in light of regulations that target haddock fishing off the coast of New England, which it said could decimate independent fishermen.

Earlier this year, the New England Fishery Management Council, which oversees fisheries from Connecticut to Maine, issued a rule that mandated a more than 80% reduction in haddock landings in the region, substantially curbing how much of the species fisherman are legally allowed to catch.

The regional council further cut the white hake commercial catch limit by roughly 13% and restricted access to the New England cod fishery by installing a 10-year Gulf of Maine cod rebuilding plan.

‘The Council’s restrictions will cause Mr. Leeman and NEFSA members to spend much of their time at sea avoiding areas where tightly regulated fish might be present — a difficult task when it comes to groundfish, and especially deep-water fish like white hake,’ the NEFSA’s lawsuit states. ‘And the cod rebuilding plan ensures that fishery will not take up the slack any time soon.’

It added that the regulatory regime put forward by the New England Fishery Management Council ‘threatens a generations-long history of groundfishing in the North Atlantic.’

While the lawsuit outlines how the regional fishery council system may be unconstitutional, it asks the court to strike down the rules related to haddock, white hake and cod fishing.

The Department of Commerce did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., on Wednesday slammed the White House for ‘telling the press what to say’ with a memo that urged stricter ‘scrutiny’ of House Republicans’ impeachment inquiry. 

White House spokesperson Ian Sams wrote a letter to major news organizations Tuesday calling for the media ‘to ramp up its scrutiny of House Republicans for opening an impeachment inquiry based on lies.’ The letter came a day after McCarthy directed House Republicans to open an impeachment inquiry into Biden.

‘It’s really concerning to me that the president, the White House is telling the press what to say. I think the press should be wanting to know the answers to, ‘Did the president know when he went to dinner with his son that he would get a Porsche?’’ McCarthy told reporters Wednesday.

‘Did he know when the son was selling the brand?’ he continued. ‘That when he was talking and using an email address? That wasn’t his own name? So people couldn’t find it?

‘Did he know when he was talking about the president of Ukraine, was that in referring to his son serving on the Burisma board with the prosecutor coming after them?’

McCarthy referenced several findings from the GOP-led investigations into the Biden family, including that Kazakhstani oligarch Kenes Rakishev wired $142,000 to Hunter Biden in April 2014 so he could buy a sports car. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., who is leading the impeachment inquiry, has alleged that payments the Bidens received through various foreign connections and shell companies were given for no services other than ‘access to the Biden network, including Joe Biden himself.’ 

The White House has denied any wrongdoing. Sams’ letter to news outlets insisted Republicans have provided no evidence that the president has committed a crime.

‘It’s time for the media to ramp up its scrutiny of House Republicans for opening an impeachment inquiry based on lies,’ he wrote. ‘When even House Republicans are admitting that there is simply no evidence that Joe Biden did anything wrong, much less impeachable, that should set off alarm bells for news organizations.’ 

The letter continued: ‘For years, Republicans in Congress have tried to muddy the waters by attracting media coverage of their allegations, and as they choose to move forward with impeachment, it is the responsibility of the independent press to treat their claims with the appropriate scrutiny. Covering impeachment as a process story — Republicans say X, but the White House says Y — is a disservice to the American public who relies on the independent press to hold those in power accountable.’

‘House Republican leaders should be held accountable for the fact that they are lurching toward impeachment over allegations that are not only unfounded but, in virtually all cases, have been actively disproven — including by witnesses and documents in their own investigations, as well as years-old congressional probes and even the former President’s first impeachment inquiry,’ Sams added, and included a 14-page appendix he said addressed seven ‘key lies’ the impeachment effort was based upon.

The letter was sent to some of the country’s largest media organizations, including Fox News, CNN, The New York Times and others.

McCarthy on Tuesday said Republican congressional probes have uncovered allegations of ‘abuse of power, obstruction and corruption’ against Biden that need further investigation.

‘Through our investigations, we have found that President Biden did lie to the American people about his own knowledge of his family’s foreign business dealings. Eyewitnesses have testified that the president joined on multiple phone calls and had multiple interactions, dinners resulted in cars and millions of dollars into his sons and his son’s business partners,’ McCarthy said.

‘We know that bank records show that nearly $20 million in payments were directed to the Biden family members and associates through various shell companies. The Treasury Department alone has more than 150 transactions involving the Biden family,’ he continued. ‘Another business associates that were flagged as suspicious activity by U.S. banks. Even a trusted FBI informant has alleged a bribe to the Biden family. Biden used his official office to coordinate with Hunter Biden’s business partners about Hunter’s role in Burisma, the Ukrainian energy company.’

House Oversight Chairman Comer said Wednesday the first impeachment inquiry hearing taking up these matters will happen later this month. 

Fox News’ Brian Flood contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS