Archive

2023

Browsing

In this week’s edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Carl notes that the “Magnificent 7” stocks are looking “toppy”, with only a few exceptions. These leadership stocks could put downside pressure on an already weak market. Erin picks out the strongest of the sectors and the weakest during her thorough review of the sectors, before she and Carl finish with a look at your symbol requests.

This video was originally recorded on September 18, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The DecisionPoint Trading Room premiere on the StockCharts TV YouTube channel on Mondays. Past videos will be available to watch here. Sign up to attend the trading room live Mondays at 12pm ET by clicking here!

Erin also hosted the Monday, September 18 edition of Your Daily Five, where she covers her favorite indicator charts and discusses the sector where she is seeing the most strength, as well as an ETF that should take advantage of an area within!

In this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s Halftime, Pete reviews the NVDA chart, which closed its nearest gap today. He then looks at the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 charts, as well as home builder DR Horton and building products company Masco — both are breaking down on trend. In addition, he reviews the defensive sectors of the markets: Healthcare XLV, Consumer Staples XLP and Utilities XLU.

This video originally premiered on September 18, 2023. You can watch on our dedicated Halftime by Chaikin Analytics page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

You can view all previously recorded episodes of Halftime by Chaikin Analytics with Pete Carmasino at this link.

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave conducts a deep dive into current market breadth indicators, including advance-decline data, the McClellan Oscillator, and the Bullish Percent Index. He reviews key support and resistance levels for AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, and other growth stocks as the market waits with bated breadth for Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

This video originally premiered on September 18, 2023. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon LIVE at 4pm ET. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Traders and investors don’t generally look forward to September. Besides being the end of summer vacations and back-to-school season, the stock market usually hits its weakest point at this time of the year. But that doesn’t necessarily mean you should stay away from the stock market in September.

If you patiently wait for the pullback to unravel, it could present investment opportunities for the last quarter of the year. And given that 2023 is a pre-election year, it’s usually a strong one for equities. But which market segment should you invest in, and which ones should you stay away from? 

In a recent StockCharts TV episode of Charting Forward, recorded on September 12, 2023, Chief Market Strategist of StockCharts.com, David Keller, CMT, spoke with the following three technical analyst veterans:

Mish Schneider, Director of Trading Education at Market GaugeTom Bowley, Chief Market Strategist of EarningsBeats.comJulius de Kempenaer, Creator of Relative Rotation GraphsⓇ and Senior Analyst at StockCharts.com 

In it, the group discussed how the broader market went through a pullback in August, but has since recovered. Given September is considered a weak month, does that mean the stock market could see another pullback before moving back up? Which areas of the market are likely to perform well, and which ones are likely to be the laggards in Q4? Let’s find out.

“I’m not as bearish as I should be. The risk factors we look at say “risk-on” is the way to go.” —Mish Schneider

So, assuming nothing out of the ordinary happens, Mish’s outlook is positive. The stock market has remained strong despite rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and rising oil prices. When the stock market is trending higher, there’s no reason to fight that trend.

“We are in the summer doldrums and could see one more drop before going higher. But I’m also bullish.” —Tom Bowley

Earlier in the year—mid-July—sentiment indicators showed bearish signs, and some negative divergences were emerging in the broader indexes. But that has reversed.

“If you look at a daily chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX), there is a series of higher highs and higher lows since the August pullback. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 exceeds 4600 in Q4.” —Julius de Kempenaer

Well, you can’t argue there. The way things are now (short of systematic risk hitting the market), the stock market seems to be hanging in there. It’s almost as if it’s waiting for a catalyst to push it higher. 

The pullback of the Magnificent Seven stocks was healthy and perhaps a much-needed one. Apple (ticker symbol: AAPL) hit a rough patch when China restricted the use of the iPhone. But if you look at a daily chart of AAPL (see below), it doesn’t paint a doom-and-gloom picture.

CHART 1: DAILY CHART OF APPLE, INC. Although Apple’s stock price faced some pressure, it still didn’t take out its August low.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stock hasn’t taken out its August 18 low of $172 and could potentially reverse. If a hard-hit stock isn’t looking bearish, is there any reason for investors to question the strength of the equity market?

What Could Go Wrong

For Mish, it would be the retail space. Consumer behavior is strongly correlated with the health of the US economy. And if consumers cut back on their spending, which is possible when inflationary pressures are ubiquitous and interest rates are high, it could add some stress to the broader market.

So far, there are no signs of a drop in retail sales. August retail sales were up 0.6% month over month—higher than the 0.1% increase expected by economists. A large part of that rise can be attributed to higher gasoline prices. If you strip away auto and fuel from the data, retail sales rose by a mere 0.2%. This could indicate that consumers may face pressure, so it’s best to keep an eye on the retail sector by closely watching the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT).

CHART 2: THE RETAIL SECTOR HELPS GAUGE CONSUMER SENTIMENT. The August high didn’t come close to its February high. Does that mean retail spending could decline in the near future?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

One interesting point Mish made was that the uptrend in XRT from June to July (2023) didn’t come close to the February 2023 high. And even though XRT saw a jump due to the positive retail sales number, there’s no sign of an uptrend—higher highs and higher lows.

Rising oil prices could put pressure on the equity market. While energy stocks are rising, Julius points out that other sectors, such as Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Communication Services, are getting ready to gain strength. It’s likely the Magnificent Seven will take the lead again, which is encouraging, given that the Energy sector is looking overbought.

Sector Relationships Are Important

Relationships between sectors often hold the key to future market action. Tom Bowley pays close attention to the relationships for warning signs. What you hear in the media may not appear on the charts. So, what are the charts indicating?

“In addition to Consumer Discretionary and Technology, Industrials and Financials tend to perform well during Q4,” said Tom. So keep an eye on the chart of the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF). The daily chart of XLF below shows the ETF bouncing off its 50-day simple moving average.

CHART 3: DAILY CHART OF THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLF). The Financial sector could perform well in Q4. The ETF appears to be bouncing off its 50-day simple moving average.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Another sector to watch is Materials. Besides production cuts, Mish feels that the rise in oil prices has to do with shortages. Because of this, we could see a boom in commodities. “Commodities have started to bottom and are picking up steam,” added Julius.

Many say, “This time, it’s different.” And there’s some truth to that. When considering buying a stock, there are many factors to analyze. For example, we’re in a high-interest rate environment, which generally hurts growth stocks. But we haven’t seen that.

“Interest rates are only one part of the equation,” mentioned Tom. So, if growth is strong, you can expect growth stocks to continue rising.

The Bottom Line

So all three analysts had a similar opinion of the overall direction of the broader market. However, each had unique perspectives in their analysis. For additional insights on cryptocurrencies, sectors likely to outperform or underperform, and which stocks or charts to watch in Q4, check out the video (link at the bottom of this article). 

We’re approaching the second half of September, which is typically the worst part of the month. But the broader indexes are showing bullish signs. Even hotter-than-expected inflation numbers didn’t spark a selloff. There’s still a Fed meeting later this month, but the chances of Fed Chairman Powell making any comments that may cause the market to sway significantly in either direction are slim. Will September’s performance be different this year?

The market continues to be weak and thin, as TG explains in this week’s edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes. There are a few stocks moving up, but the majority are going sideways or down. This is not a great environment for going long, so don’t try to push your trades. Wonder what the FOMC will bring.

This video was originally broadcast on September 18, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of Moxie Indicator Minutes premiere weekly on Fridays. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link.

In a move that stunned investors and employees alike, Planet Fitness ousted company veteran Chris Rondeau from his post as CEO, the workout chain said Friday in a press release.

The stock dropped 15% in the wake of the announcement, hitting a 52-week low.

Planet Fitness said it is searching for its next chief both internally and externally. Craig Benson, the former governor of New Hampshire and a member of the company’s board, will serve as the interim CEO. He’s a franchisee of both Planet Fitness and Dunkin’ Donuts and has been on Planet’s board for six years.

Rondeau’s departure appears sudden, and it’s not clear what triggered the decision, especially after a stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings report last month. Some staff close to Rondeau learned about his departure around the time the news was announced publicly, leaving them shocked, according to a person familiar with the matter.

In a research note, William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia called the news “abrupt” and said it didn’t “appear planned” because the company canceled two planned investor conference presentations this week.

“The decision was characterized as the board’s and not Rondeau’s,” Zackfia wrote.

Planet Fitness Chairman Stephen Spinelli Jr. said in a press release that the board “felt that now was the right time to transition leadership.”

“In today’s evolving environment, Planet Fitness is continuing to enhance our competitive advantage, capitalize on our size and scale, and drive further shareholder value,” he added.

Planet Fitness declined further comment. Rondeau couldn’t be reached.

More from CNBC

The meme stock mania is now a movie. Here’s what has happened to GameStop and AMC Arm’s second trading day is more subdued, but valuation still tops $60 billion McDonald’s is selling 50 cent double cheeseburgers, Wendy’s is giving them out for a penny

Rondeau is a longtime veteran of the company, working his way up from a front desk position nearly 30 years ago at the gym’s first location in Dover, New Hampshire when it was owned by founders Michael and Marc Grondahl. Rondeau has served as CEO since 2013 and previously held the role of chief operating officer. He will continue as a member as of the board of directors and will stay on in an advisory role “to help ensure a smooth transition,” the company said.

“My 30-year career at Planet Fitness has been an incredible ride, and it’s been an honor to lead this Company and serve our employees, franchisees and members, all of whom have played a key role in our tremendous growth and success,” Rondeau said in a statement. “I am grateful for and look forward to supporting the management team in an advisory capacity, and have confidence in the long-term potential of Planet Fitness.”

During his time as CEO, Rondeau led Planet Fitness’s IPO and tripled its club base from about 700 to about 2,400 locations. When he started in the position, the company was doing about $200 million in annual revenue and is now projected to do more than $1 billion this year, Zackfia said.

While the company recently posted strong sales and profit growth, investors have grown wary over its plans for equipment and new franchises, which are both key revenue drivers for the business.

In August, Rondeau announced that Planet Fitness was reducing its 2023 outlook for placements of equipment in new franchisee stores to about 140, down from a previous range of 160. Planet makes about a quarter of its revenue from selling its branded fitness equipment to franchisees.

At the time, Rondeau chalked up the trimmed forecast to “higher new store construction costs and increased interest rates.”

During a call with analysts, finance chief Thomas Fitzgerald noted the company’s plans to open 600 new stores by 2025 may no longer be possible. He said the goal was still “achievable in the relative near term” but it may take longer than three years.

“While our new store returns are still strong, they are not back to their pre-Covid levels due primarily to higher construction costs that have stubbornly remained up 25%,” Fitzgerald said at the time.

“To put it in perspective, the amount of CapEx required to build six stores per year in 2019 will now only build four or five depending on the situation. … Additionally, the rapid increase in interest rates over the past year has had a cumulative impact on our franchisees’ ability to invest in new store growth.”

Further, vacancy rates for 15,000- to 25,000-square-foot locations that are suitable for Planet Fitness’s gyms are down about 16% compared to pre-Covid levels, making it harder for the company to secure new leases, Fitzgerald said.

During its most recent quarter ended June 30, Planet opened 26 new stores compared to 34 in the prior year.

″[Planet Fitness] has presented multiple reasons why franchise unit openings have slowed, without giving investors confidence about what the growth rate is likely to be, which we think is the key factor that has impacted stock performance,” DA Davidson wrote in a research note Friday.

The company’s stock is down about 33% this year, giving it a market value of about $4.6 billion.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The U.S. Senate will no longer enforce a dress code for members of the upper house elected by those they serve.

‘However, others entering the chamber must comply with the dress code. Coats/ties for men. Business attire for women,’ tweeted Chad Pergram, Fox News senior congressional correspondent.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., quietly sent the directive to the Senate’s sergeant at arms, news website Axios reported.

The change allows Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., to continue to wear his trademark hooded sweatshirts and gym shorts while working for Americans.

Fetterman was previously praised for ‘turning heads’ and ‘redefining fashion in the stuffy Senate’ during his recovery after a six-week stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where he was treated for ‘clinical depression’ and ‘fitted for hearing aids for hearing loss that had made it harder for him to communicate,’ according to an AP story from May.

The senator even found a workaround to the legislative body’s dress code rules by voting from the doorway of the Democrat cloakroom or the side entrance, making sure his vote is recorded before ducking out, per the AP report.

‘He’s setting a new dress code,’ Democrat Vermont Sen. Peter Welch joked to AP in May. ‘He was struggling. And now he’s a joyful person to be around.’

Fetterman faced some backlash against his casual dress code, even from his own staff, according to AP, who ‘had originally asked him to always wear suits, which he famously hates.’

‘Senators are able to choose what they wear on the Senate floor. I will continue to wear a suit,’ Schumer said in a statement to Axios. The news website added that Senate officials said the updated rule will go into effect this week.

Fox News’ Jeffrey Clark and Patrick Hauf contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

–>

EXCLUSIVE: A former U.S. Army Special Forces Green Beret and combat veteran announced Monday he was joining the race to try and flip what could be one of 2024’s most competitive congressional seats from the Democrats.

Republican Derrick Anderson, who served six tours of duty throughout the Middle East as part of the Global War on Terror, told Fox News Digital he could ‘no longer remain silent on the sidelines.’ Anderson added he is running to bring leadership to Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, which he argues is lacking under Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger.

‘I have spent my life serving this country overseas, including combat tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. Watching President Biden and Washington Democrats squander 22 years of sacrifices made by our service members and their families was the final straw for me,’ Anderson said.

‘President Biden and career politicians are putting politics and their own gains in front of fighting for what’s best for the American people: safer streets, better paying jobs and cheaper goods, a secure border and an education system that teaches our children how to think, not what to think,’ he said. 

Anderson served in the Army from 2006 to 2014 before his first run for Congress in 2022. That year he narrowly lost the Republican primary to former congressional candidate Yesli Vega. Spanberger, a former CIA operative, went on to defeat Vega in the general election by just under 5%, securing her third term after she was first elected in the 2018 midterms.

According to Politico, Spanberger has said she will run for governor of Virginia in 2025 and will forego running for a fourth term in Congress next year.

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District has remained one of the Republican Party’s top targets to flip from the Democrats and is, once again, considered a potential swing district going into the 2024 elections. A potential absence of Spanberger on the ballot could make that more obtainable and Anderson feels he is the candidate who can finally move Republicans across the finish line.

‘Though I no longer wear a United States Army uniform, it does not mean I can no longer serve this nation. I pledge to be the representative the people of Virginia’s 7th District deserve and are owed,’ he told Fox. ‘I will run a tireless, heartfelt and genuine campaign the people of the 7th district, the place that raised me, can be proud of.’

In the video Anderson released as part of his campaign launch, he touts his childhood mopping floors and washing dishes in his mother’s local Spotsylvania County restaurant before going on to Virginia Tech on an Army Reserve Officers’ Training Corps scholarship, where he became the first person in his family to graduate from college.

‘I’m running for Congress to fight for you, and to serve the country I love once again,’ he says, before listing the policies he would prioritize as the district’s representative.

Anderson is now one of five candidates vying for the Republican nomination for the district.

Republicans currently hold a slim five-seat majority in the House of Representatives and are hoping to build on that next year, partly by capitalizing on the unpopularity of President Biden. The party gained control of the chamber following the 2022 midterm elections, but performed well below expectations.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

House Republicans held a members-only conference call with Freedom Caucus members on Sunday night in an attempt to avert a government shutdown, Fox News has learned.

The goal of the call, which took place at 8 p.m., was to agree on a continuing resolution to fund the government for another month. The Freedom Caucus and House Republican leadership have been disputing over what a funding package could look like.

Before the call took place, sources told Fox News Digital that there has been ‘good progress’ between Freedom Caucus members and other Republicans.

The interim spending bill, which is good for 31 days, is expected to renew current funding while incorporating more border and immigration-related spending. The House aims to vote on it on Thursday.

The continuing resolution would also fund veteran and military spending at current levels while marking a 1% cut from fiscal year 2023 discretionary spending levels. House Republicans are hoping to pass their defense spending bill this week.

The defense spending bill will also be coupled with House Resolution 2 (HR 2), which is intended to limit asylum provisions and tighten up border security.

Notably, the defense bill does not include additional disaster relief money for Ukraine, which has been requested by the White House. It also does not include an E-Verify provision requiring employers to document the employment eligibility of their workers, which has been previously discussed.

Despite the attempt to rally Republicans behind the new continuing resolution, several GOP lawmakers expressed on social media that they would be voting ‘no’ when the bill faces a vote.

‘I’m a NO,’ Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. ‘No money for Ukraine, COVID, or weaponized Gov.’

Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., echoed: ‘I’m a HARD NO!’

Mills, among others, has expressed that he wants government spending to return to pre-pandemic levels.

‘I’m sick of the DC backroom deals to appease 61 in the Senate and not going to play this game,’ the Floridian continued. ‘Our job is to fund the US and take care of the American people. I was not elected by overseas interests like others. Enough is Enough!’

Rep. Dan Bishop, R-NC, added: ‘I’m with Cory. No CR. Pass the damn approps bills. Roll back the crazy bureaucracy to pre-COVID levels. Now.’

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., also expressed he was among those who opposed the bill.

Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont., argued that the current spending levels were decided by President Biden and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, therefore Republicans, who are in control of the House, should take the responsibility to set new levels. 

‘For months, I have made it very clear that I will not be supporting a CR. And this week is no different,’ he wrote on X. ‘A CR is a continuation of Nancy Pelosi’s budget and Joe Biden’s policies.’

Rosendale added: ‘We were assured in January that we weren’t going to use the Democrats’ gimmicks to fund government and that we would deliver the 12 appropriations bills, thereby funding government responsibly and transparently, which is why I will be voting against the CR this week.’

McCarthy has said he will bring the continuing resolution to the House floor for a vote, whether he has the votes to pass it or not. The tactic is often used to put members on the record. 

Republicans, who have 222 members, can only afford four holdouts and still pass a bill with 218 votes. They appear well above that number for the continuing resolution.

Main Street Caucus Chairman Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., Vice Chair Stephanie Bice, R-Okla., and Executive Board Representative Kelly Armstrong, R-N.D., told Fox News that they are working with Freedom Caucus members to build support for the continuing resolution.

‘Congress must keep government open and secure the border,’ the statement reads. ‘That’s why we’ve worked with leaders of the House Freedom Caucus to introduce a 31-day continuing resolution laser-focused on fixing the crisis at our southern border.’

‘We want to thank members of both the Republican Main Street Caucus and House Freedom Caucus, as well as a broad cross-section of other members from across the Republican conference for their contributions to this effort,’ the statement continues.

After the contentious debate in the House is settled, the bill will head to the Senate.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

–>

Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita filed a lawsuit against his state’s largest hospital, alleging it violated a patient’s privacy when it leaked news that a 10-year-old girl had crossed state lines for an abortion.

Rokita, a Republican, filed the lawsuit Friday, alleging that the doctor, Dr. Caitlin Bernard, wrongfully outed the 10-year-old girl who traveled from Ohio to Indiana for the abortion.

‘Neither the 10-year-old nor her mother gave the doctor authorization to speak to the media about their case,’ the lawsuit states. ‘Rather than protecting the patient, the hospital chose to protect the doctor, and itself.’

The lawsuit names Indiana University Health and IU Healthcare Associates, claiming they violated HIPPA laws.

An Indiana board voted Thursday to reprimand Bernard for performing the abortion and sharing the information about the procedure with the media.

The Indiana State Medical Licensing Board fined Bernard $3,000 after it determined she violated privacy laws by talking publicly about the operation.

The board, however, turned down a request from the attorney general’s office to suspend Bernard’s license.

Bernard attested to her own innocence and repeatedly defended her actions, telling the board Thursday that she followed Indiana’s reporting requirements.

Bernard also said she notified hospital social workers about the child abuse and confirmed the girl’s rape was already being investigated by Ohio authorities. She and her attorneys also argued that she did not release identifying information about the girl.

Board members questioned her during last week’s hearing and asked why she specifically went to a reporter.

‘I think that it’s incredibly important for people to understand the real-world impacts of the laws of this country about abortion,’ Bernard answered. ‘I think it’s important for people to know what patients will have to go through because of legislation that is being passed, and a hypothetical does not make that impact.’

Fox News’ Lawrence Richard and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS