Archive

2023

Browsing

In this week’s edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Carl, after a walkthrough of the Magnificent 7+ stocks, examines how, while it was clear that there’s some strength to be had in the Nasdaq, one look at the Ultrashort for Dow 30 (SDOW) and an internal review of the Dow 30 shows there are problems “under the hood” based on DecisionPoint indicators. Erin, meanwhile finds the only strength among the sectors lies with none other than Technology. In the last half of the show, they take a number of symbol requests from the Trading Room’s live attendees.

This video was originally recorded on October 2, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The DecisionPoint Trading Room premiere on the StockCharts TV YouTube channel on Mondays. Past videos will be available to watch here. Sign up to attend the trading room live Mondays at 12pm ET by clicking here!

Although the market stayed flat on a week-on-week basis, the past five trading sessions showed all possibilities of the market continuing with its corrective retracement. In the previous technical note, it was categorically mentioned that India VIX had closed at a precariously low level, and that had left us vulnerable to profit-taking bouts. On Thursday, as the markets saw a strong profit-taking wave, VIX surged over 12% only to come down the other day. The trading range was narrower; the Nifty oscillated in the 274.55 points range before closing flat with a minor loss of 35.95 points (-0.18%) on a weekly basis. The monthly performance remained strong; despite coming off from the high point of the month, the headline index gained 384.50 points (2.00%) in September.

We have a four-day short trading week coming up; Monday is a trading holiday on account of Gandhi Jayanti. The Nifty has violated the important 50-DMA on the daily charts which currently stands at 19629. When the index attempted to stage a technical rebound on Friday, it ended up closing just below this important level which now acts as a resistance after getting violated on a closing basis. This is important from a technical standpoint; however, the Nifty has formed a lower top and lower bottom on the weekly charts. This shows a continuation of corrective retracement after the emergence of a potential top at 20222 levels. IndiaVIX, despite coming off sharply from its high seen on Thursday, still ends 7.43% higher at 11.45 as compared to the previous week.

The first trading session on Tuesday will see the markets aligning themselves with the global markets that would have traded on Monday. A tepid start to the week is expected; the levels of 19790 and 19850 are expected to act as resistance. The supports are likely to come in at 19500 and 19370 levels.

The weekly RSI stands at 60.72; following a bearish divergence earlier, it now stands neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish as of now but it is on the verge of showing a negative crossover. A spinning top occurred on Candles; it reflects the indecisiveness of the market participants.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows a simplistic picture; while the daily chart has some technical events on it, the weekly chart just shows a continuation of retracement following the creation of the top at 20222 levels. If the current retracement continues, we may see the Nifty drifting towards the 20-week MA which is placed at 19252 followed by the crucial pattern support of 19000 levels.

All in all, there are greater chances of the technical structure getting defensive in the markets. While we may see some catchup being attempted by Banknifty in the event of any technical rebound happening, we will see low beta and defensive space like PSE, PSU Banks, IT, Pharma, and FMCG/Consumption doing well. It is strongly recommended that leveraged exposures should be kept at modest levels; excess leverage should be avoided. Keeping in mind that volatility may increase sporadically and intermittently, a defensive and cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that Nifty Energy, Midcap100, Media, PSUBank, Metal, PSE, Pharma and Infrastructure indices are inside the leading quadrant of the RRG. Out of these groups, Metal, Pharma, Media, and Energy appear to be giving up on their relative momentum and may contribute less to the relative outperformance. However, while the other sectors may continue to relatively outperform the broader markets.

The Auto and Realty indices are inside the weakening quadrant and are seen mildly attempting to improve their relative momentum.

The Consumption and FMCG indices are inside the lagging quadrant showing mild improvement in their relative momentum. Besides this, the Financial Services and Banknifty continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant.

The Nifty Services sector index has just rolled inside the improving quadrant. Along with this, the IT and Commodities sectors are also inside the improving quadrant and may better their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign reportedly asked the Republican National Committee to significantly limit the number of GOP presidential candidates on stage for the party’s next presidential primary debate. 

In a letter to RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and Committee on Arrangements co-Chairs David Bossie and Anne Hathaway, Vivek 2024 CEO Ben Yoho requested that the RNC restrict the next debate stage to the four Republican candidates polling the highest nationally, after former President Donald Trump, according to The Hill. 

The campaign also asked the RNC to increase the donor threshold to 100,000. 

‘[A]gainst the backdrop of a chaotic second debate and the reality of a frontrunner who has declined to participate, we respectfully call on the RNC to revise its approach so that Republican voters can focus on serious candidates who have a viable path to beating Joe Biden – or whomever the Democrats put up to replace him,’ Yoho wrote. 

‘Time is running out. Early-state voting is rapidly approaching in January,’ he continued, according to the letter obtained by The Hill. ‘Another unhelpful debate in November is not an option: voters deserve a real choice for who will best serve as our party’s nominee. Voters are not well-served when a cacophony of candidates with minimal chance of success talk over each other from the edge of the stage, while the overwhelming frontrunner is absent from the center of that same stage.’ 

The RNC has already raised the threshold to qualify for the third presidential debate of the 2024 cycle. 

To participate in the Nov. 6 event, GOP candidates are required to have two national polls that show them at 4% or higher, or they must receive 4% support in one national poll and two different early state polls. White House hopefuls are also required to meet a donor threshold of at least 70,000 unique donors, including at least 200 from 20 or more states each. That compares to the 3% polling threshold with a minimum of 50,000 unique donors required to participate in the Sept. 27 debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The next chapter in the fall of one-time crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried is set to begin Tuesday as the former FTX head goes on trial in New York City.

Jury selection in Bankman-Fried’s trial is scheduled to begin Oct. 3, while the trial itself is expected to last about six weeks.

Bankman-Fried, who was once viewed as a leader in digital currencies and a rare tech CEO who was attuned to ethics, will face federal charges of wire fraud, securities fraud and money laundering that defrauded customers of his digital currency exchange, FTX, and lenders to his cryptocurrency hedge fund, Alameda Research.

He has pleaded not guilty to all of those charges. If convicted, several of the counts would come with maximum sentences of 20 years in prison.

A stunningly swift rise

“SBF,” as he was popularly known, co-founded Alameda Research in 2017 and FTX in 2019. The latter offered low trading fees and benefited from the then-booming crypto market. It snapped up competitors and marketed itself aggressively to become one of the largest players in the field. A celebrity-stuffed Super Bowl ad helped make it one of the best known as well.

FTX was also based in the Bahamas, temporarily putting it beyond the reach of U.S. regulators.

On paper, FTX’s valuation skyrocketed and estimates of Bankman-Fried’s personal wealth peaked at $26 billion. He became a significant political donor, giving publicly to Democrats and privately to Republicans, and breaking with other tech and crypto figures by calling for some regulation of the industry.

Along the way, he began telling interviewers that he wasn’t pursuing fabulous wealth for its own sake. He framed it as an ethical imperative: making billions in crypto was just a means to an end, he explained. It was the best way to accumulate a huge fortune he would use to make the world a better place, and do it as soon as possible.

His background as the son of two Stanford legal scholars, one an expert on taxes and the other on ethics, was often noted.

He also began to cross over into popular culture, cultivating an image of a 30-year-old who dressed like a college kid, with messy, curly hair and a near-uniform of T-shirts and cargo shorts, even if he was speaking in public to world leaders.

And then it all fell apart

On November 2, 2022, Coindesk reported that much of the balance sheet of Bankman-Fried’s trading firm, Alameda Research, was composed of a token, called FTT, issued by FTX itself, not by a separate asset with a known and established value. That was unusual, and a major financial liability for Alameda.

Days after that report, Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, CEO of rival crypto platform Binance, said his company would sell off all its FTT tokens. That huge sale tanked the value of FTT and badly damaged Alameda’s balance sheet.

Digital currency traders started pulling their money from FTX, and the platform soon blocked customers from further withdrawals. Binance agreed to buy FTX in a bailout, then backed out of the deal.

While FTX and Alameda were supposed to be separate businesses, it soon became clear that they were deeply intertwined — and that FTX had given customers’ money to Alameda so it could invest the funds. Bankman-Fried continued to try to raise money to save the business, but both firms, as well as FTX US, filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 11.

He was soon replaced as the CEO of FTX by bankruptcy expert John Ray, who said he had never seen ‘such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here.’

Billions of dollars were missing

For a short time after the collapse, Bankman-Fried granted interviews and tweeted about his situation, maintaining an unusually public and prominent image for a person facing a criminal investigation as reporters and lawyers dug through the wreckage of his businesses. At different times he was apologetic, seemingly open, and contemptuous, suggesting he hadn’t meant most of what he’d said about trying to do good.

He was scheduled to testify before Congress when he was arrested in December, in the Bahamas. He was extradited to the U.S. and initially remained on house arrest but was jailed in August after prosecutors said he had leaked diary entries by Caroline Ellison, his ex-girlfriend and the former CEO of Alameda, to The New York Times.

Ellison, like several other FTX insiders, is expected to testify against Bankman-Fried at the trial.

Bankman-Fried is expected to be tried in March 2024 on five additional counts, including bribery of a foreign official. He has also pleaded not guilty to those charges.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., says he will file a ‘motion to vacate the chair’ this week. 

This is an effort to force a vote of no confidence on the floor for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and potentially prompt a new vote for speaker. 

Gaetz doesn’t believe McCarthy has held up his end of the bargain after the lengthy speaker vote in January. The Florida Republican threatened to use this motion if McCarthy relied on Democrats to advance spending bills. McCarthy turned to Democrats on Saturday to avert a government shutdown. 

Such a gambit to try to bounce a speaker in the middle of a Congress is rare. 

Former Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., threatened to use the tactic on former House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, in the summer of 2015. Boehner saw the writing on the wall and resigned that October. 

The House last saw a formal effort to remove a speaker in 1910. A number of members were displeased with House Speaker Joe Cannon, R-Ill., and found him to be too dictatorial. Cannon got in front of his adversaries, who also wanted to call for a new speaker, by offering the motion to vacate himself. Cannon survived – but with the help of the minority party. 

He then became a very weak speaker. 

It’s unclear if Democrats could bail out McCarthy in this scenario. 

Keep in mind that McCarthy ally Rep. Garret Graves, R-La., has also filed a motion to vacate the chair. This is a protective measure that Graves could use to supersede Gaetz’s gambit. It was thought that McCarthy loyalists could try to call the bluff of Gaetz by filing their own motion first or daring Gaetz to follow through. 

By rule, Gaetz’s resolution is ‘privileged.’ That means that when Gaetz offers his resolution, the House must consider it immediately or within two legislative days. 

However, the vote will not immediately be on the motion to vacate the chair. It is highly probable that one of McCarthy’s lieutenants will then move to table (kill) Gaetz’s motion or make a motion to refer the effort to the Rules or House Administration Committee. So, the first vote is NOT actually on Gaetz’s motion, let alone an election of a new speaker. The vote is on the secondary motion to table or refer Gaetz’s measure to committee, not on the primary motion. 

If the House approves the secondary motion to table or refer, then Gaetz’s gambit is euthanized. The gig is up. 

But if the secondary motion fails, then the House votes on the primary motion. That would be Gaetz’s motion to vacate the chair. If the secondary motion loses, the primary motion likely prevails. If the primary motion (the motion to vacate) is successful, we are back to Jan. 3, the start of the Congress. The House must take a vote – or votes – to elect a speaker. 

Everything on the House floor would come to a screeching halt. The House can do nothing on the floor without electing a speaker. No legislation on the floor. However, committees can continue to meet, et al. 

It took 15 rounds spread over five days to elect McCarthy the first time. It was the longest speaker election since 1859. Consider how long it could take the House to re-elect McCarthy or tap someone else as speaker.

The House must continue to vote and vote and vote until it elects a speaker. The House consumed two months in late 1855 and early 1856 before finally electing Speaker Nathaniel Banks, R-Mass., on the 163rd ballot. 

The successful candidate must receive an outright majority of all members casting ballots for someone by name. ‘Present’ votes do not count. Members who do not vote don’t count against the vote total. 

The person with the ‘most votes’ does not win. That’s why electing the speaker can be a rather complex piece of parliamentary algebra. 

The House currently has 433 members. If all members vote for someone by name in a speaker’s race, the successful candidate must receive 217 votes. 

It’s uncertain if it will get to this stage. But this entire process is about the math. 

It’s unclear how many Republicans may vote against that secondary motion to table or refer. McCarthy’s move on government funding has inflamed many on the hard right. 

And it’s unclear if Democrats could potentially assist McCarthy. 

Some McCarthy opponents on the Democratic side of the aisle may vote with Republicans wanting to bounce the speaker. Others may not participate in the vote at all. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has said that Republicans must solve this civil war on their own. 

If Democrats don’t cast a ballot on the secondary motion, that drives down the total number of ballots cast. This is where things get very dangerous for McCarthy. McCarthy allies may not have enough votes to kill the motion to vacate, thus putting that motion in play on the next roll call. 

Again, if the second motion fails, the House then votes on the initial motion – the motion to vacate. If the House defeats the second motion, it probably adopts the primary Gaetz motion. And that scenario triggers an automatic revote for speaker of the House. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

During a New York speech, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, aka “The Maestro,” uttered the phrase: “Irrational Exuberance.” He was referring to the bullish action in the stock market at the time, which, in his mind, might have been ahead of reasonable expectations about the future of corporate earnings and the state of the economy.

We are currently in one of those periods of irrational exuberance. Except this time, it’s the bears in the stock and bond markets who are channeling Greenspan.

And yes, I’m aware of the inflation figures and the market’s consensus that we are in a period of stagflation. But even as the Fed talks about keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, what I see is that it’s getting harder for businesses to operate, which historically is a prelude to a slowing economy.  That’s because the Fed and the bond market have pushed interest rates beyond what the markets and the economy can handle. Thus, some sort of reversal is in the cards, perhaps in both bond and stock markets.

Something’s got to give; soon. So the best approach is to stay patiently alert, compile a shopping list, and be prepared to deploy cash when the market turns.

Costco Banks on Consumer Fear

If there is such a thing as life being oversold, we’re looking at it. Consumers are tapped out. Business confidence is hugging its recent bottom. Governments are running irreparable deficits and insurmountable debt levels. And public opinion on just about everything is near the lows of recent history.

Fear in the real world is so high that Costco (COST) is selling gold bars on their website. They recently ran for $1900 per ounce and sold out in a blink. It’s also increasing its survival food offerings.

In fact, it’s that fear in the public’s mind that led to the company’s beating analyst of expectations in its most recent quarter. In good old contrarian fashion, Costco monetized the fear factor handsomely. Here’s what they said in their earnings news release:

Comparable sales rose 1.1% year over year, but only 0.2% in the U.S.;Rising sales registered in groceries, but not in big ticket discretionary items;Members made more trips to the stores but spent less on average; andThere was higher store traffic, but smaller average tickets.

One percent sales growth total and flat sales in the U.S. is a cautionary sign. But the company was able to beat estimates by converting the cautious into executive memberships (twice the cost of regular memberships) and by catering to their concerns.

The market clearly liked what it heard from the company, as the shares rallied and are on the verge of a price breakout. On Balance Volume (OBV) and Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) are both moving higher, confirming positive money flows into the shares.

Costco is profiting from the public’s fear, while the market is not quite there yet. But, as I describe in the sections below, we are closing in on oversold levels in the market from where a meaningful bounce can materialize.

Irrational Exuberance: Bond Yields Should be Topping Out as Homebuilders Look to Bottom

If Costco’s flattening sales, which are leaning toward gold bars and survival food, are a hint as to where things stand, then it follows that bond yields are too high, which implies that the Fed has already gone too far in the tightening cycle and that lower yields are in the offing.

So again, I am noting that the U.S. Ten Year Treasury Note (TNX) yield is well above its normal trading range as it skirts along the upper Bollinger Band aligned with its 200-day moving average. As I noted in my recent video on Bollinger Bands, when this happens, it’s usually a prelude to a reversal the current trend.

Rising bond yields have led to rising mortgage rates and weakness in the homebuilder stocks, which, as I recently noted to subscribers of Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com and members of my Buy Me a Coffee page here, may be poised for a rebound.

As the chart below shows, rates (MORTGAGE) are even further outside their upper Bollinger Band than TNX. That’s a picture of a market which is on the verge of something big happening. A normal response would be for a downside reversal.

You can see that smart money is starting to build positions in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) as the On Balance Volume (OBV) line is stabilizing even as the Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) line still heading lower. This is a bullish divergence, as OBV measures the action in real buyers while at this stage of the cycle, ADI’s downtrend points to activity by short sellers.

Together, these indicators suggest that a potential short squeeze in homebuilders is likely, once bond yields and mortgage rates come down to earth after the extended period of irrational exuberance created by the Fed reverses.

Join the smart money at Joe Duarte in the Money Options.com, where I have just added five home builder stocks to the model portfolios. You can have a look at my latest recommendations FREE with a two week trial subscription. And for frequent updates on real estate and housing, click here.

The Market’s Breadth Tests Key Decision Point; Money Moving Back into Tech

The NYSE Advance Decline line (NYAD) clawed its way back to its 200-day moving average behind an oversold RSI reading. The short term could be bumpy, so the outcome of what happens here could well define the action in Q4 for stocks.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) found support and is now negotiating the 14500-15000 support area. ADI is falling, but OBV has turned up, which means we are likely to see a bigger clash between short sellers and buyers at some point in the future.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is not faring as well, as it remains below 4350 and its 20- and 50-day moving averages. On the other hand, SPX closed below its lower Bollinger Band on 9/22/23 and remains near its recently oversold level on RSI.

VIX Remains Below 20  

VIX remains stubburnly below the 20 area. A move above 20 would be very negative.

When the VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying, which causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures. This raises the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity is Tightening Some

Liquidity is tightening. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), is an approximate sign of the market’s liquidity. It remains near its recent high in response to the Fed’s move and the rise in bond yields. A move below 5.0 would bullish. A move above 5.5% would signal that monetary conditions are tightening beyond the Fed’s intentions. That would be very bearish.

To get the latest information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

With the thresholds to qualify for the next Republican presidential nomination debate rising, and crucial fundraising reports from the campaigns due in the coming days, the still relatively-large field of GOP White House hopefuls may be slashed in the weeks to come.

Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, who flirted with a 2024 run before deciding against it, has been saying for months that the field in the Republican presidential nomination race needs to shrink.

‘If you don’t make the first couple of debates, then you probably have to have a tough conversation and get out of the race,’ Sununu said.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who made the stage at the first two Republican showdowns, told Fox News in August that for his rivals who ‘haven’t made the stage’ at the debates, ‘it’s time to go.’

So far, only one White House hopeful has called it quits.

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez suspended his campaign after failing to make the stage at the first Republican presidential nomination debate, a Fox News-hosted August 23 showdown in Milwaukee Wisconsin.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, the only one of the eight candidates on the stage at the first debate who failed to qualify for Wednesday’s second debate – a Fox Business co-hosted event held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California – says if he fails to make the stage at the third GOP presidential nomination debate, he’ll consider dropping out.

‘If I don’t make that, we’ll re-evaluate where we are,’ Hutchinson told reporters this week as he referred to the third debate, which will be held Nov. 8 in Miami, Florida.

When asked for clarification if his response meant he would consider dropping out, Hutchinson answered, ‘Sure.’

Michigan businessman and quality control industry expert Perry Johnson, who failed to qualify for the first two debates, is now mulling a pivot to run for the open Senate seat in his home state.

‘Obviously, it’s no secret that I’ve had a lot of calls to run for this seat because they do want to win this seat. But at this point in time, my focus is right on the presidential [race], and, believe me, that’s taking all my time and energy at this point,’ Johnson told Fox News on Thursday.

Former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, who previously served as an undercover agent in the CIA, also didn’t make the stage at the first two debates.

‘My team and I are constantly evaluating whether we have the resources to chart a path to victory,’ he wrote in a statement Wednesday. ‘I’m headed to New Hampshire to spread my message to the Granite State ahead of the First In the Nation primary. Educating voters on how to solve these existential issues is important, and hopefully other candidates will follow my lead.’

GOP contender Larry Elder, a former nationally syndicated radio host and 2021 California gubernatorial recall election candidate, also failed to qualify for the first two debates.

Former President Donald Trump skipped the first two debates as he pointed to his commanding lead in the GOP presidential nomination race and said this past week that he won’t attend the third debate. 

Sununu, a vocal Trump critic, envisions a smaller field by the end of the year, just ahead of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary — the first two contests in the Republican nominating calendar.

‘I think by the time you get to the end of December, you’ll have five or six different candidates going into Iowa, maybe three or four coming into New Hampshire,’ Sununu predicted. ‘If that’s the case, a huge opportunity for the Republican Party.’

The July-September third quarter of fundraising came to a close on Saturday, with the campaigns required to post their figures in the next two weeks. 

A lackluster fundraising report could be the death knell for some of the candidates struggling to make the debate stage.

‘I think a lot of these candidates are going to run out of gas as they try to drive to the next debate in Miami,’ longtime Republican consultant Alex Castellanos told Fox News.

Castellanos, a veteran of numerous Republican presidential campaigns, said that some of the candidates will ‘soon have to take their ball and go home.’

‘The time is coming soon for the smaller contenders to drop out so the field can begin to coalesce. Donald Trump can beat everybody, but he may not be able to beat somebody. That’s the test,’ Castellanos emphasized.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

As Americans look ahead to the 2024 presidential election, the Supreme Court is reaching back to past constitutional conflicts, just in time to have major political implications for voters to consider.

This judicial déjà vu will include not only the court’s hot-button caseload, but the nine members’ own conduct and accountability.

‘The Supreme Court is going to be tackling so many of the issues that have divided America on political grounds. They’re not shying away from the controversial cases,’ said Thomas Dupree, a former top Justice Department official who frequently litigates before the high court. ‘And any time the Supreme Court starts wading into these political issues, people react strongly. It’s already shaping up to be a blockbuster term.’

The term kicks off next week — the so-called ‘First Monday in October’— when public courtroom sessions will begin anew.

The argument docket includes: 

Gun rights and whether those under domestic violence restraining orders can possess guns.The administrative state and separate appeals over curbing the power of the executive branch to interpret and enforce federal rules; and whether the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will be effectively dismantled over its funding mechanismElection redistricting and a challenge to congressional seat boundaries in South Carolina, which could be a prelude to more voting fights, some possibly involving Donald TrumpA free speech dispute over state laws that would force social media platforms to host third-party communications and prevent them from blocking or removing users’ posts based on political viewpoints

And another high-profile appeal could soon be accepted for final review, dealing with Food and Drug Administration approval authority over the abortion pill mifepristone.

All of these petitions could be decided by mid-2024.

BENCH PRESSURE

But when it comes to public scrutiny of the court, the docket has become a benchwarmer of sorts to the justices themselves. A summer of revelations over questionable personal travel and growing calls for ethics reform have further divided them and lawmakers over whether anything can be done to police the highest court in the land, besides its nine members.

Some justices think it is time. New ethics rules would ‘go far in persuading other people that we were adhering to the highest standards of conduct,’ Justice Elena Kagan said last week at a Notre Dame Law School event. ‘I hope we can make progress.’

Justice Brett Kavanaugh a few weeks ago suggested his colleagues may take ‘concrete steps soon’ to deal with the rising calls for reform. 

‘We can increase confidence. We’re working on that,’ he added.

In May, Chief Justice John Roberts said it was an ‘issue of concern.’

‘There’s really no reason why members of the Supreme Court should not also have a binding ethical code that applies to other federal judges,’ said Brianne Gorod, chief counsel at the Constitutional Accountability Center. ‘But if they don’t act soon, I think it would be entirely reasonable for Congress to consider whether it’s appropriate for them to take some action to ensure that the court is being held to the highest ethical standards.’

But other members of the court have pushed back recently over calls for greater transparency.

Justice Samuel Alito in a recent interview resisted such suggestions.

‘No provision in the Constitution gives [Congress] the authority to regulate the Supreme Court — period,’ he said.

In a separate court filing this month, Alito also rejected calls for him to recuse himself in an upcoming tax case as ‘unsound’ and that there was ‘no valid reason’ for him not to participate. 

‘Recusal is a personal decision for each justice,’ he added.

David Rivkin, one of the lawyers in the appeal, co-authored recent articles published in The Wall Street Journal’s opinion section, which included exclusive interviews with the 73-year-old justice, including his comments on ethics. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin, D-Ill., had urged Alito to step aside, citing the appearance of a conflict of interest.

The Democrats’ effort comes after the nonprofit news organization ProPublica began reporting on the activity of Supreme Court justices, including revelations Alito had taken a luxury vacation in Alaska with a Republican donor who had business interests before the court.

Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Clarence Thomas have been embroiled over media reports about their book deals, travel and financial dealings.

The Senate Judiciary Committee in July advanced the Supreme Court Ethics, Recusal, and Transparency (SCERT) Act to the full Senate.  The bill would require Supreme Court justices to adopt a code of conduct and create a mechanism to investigate any such alleged violations.

‘There’s definitely been a lot of internal debate in recent years among the justices themselves about whether they should adopt a binding ethics code,’ already applicable to other federal judges, says Dupree. ‘If so, what should be in that ethics code? And it wouldn’t surprise me if, in the next year or two, the Supreme Court does voluntarily adopt some sort of code along those lines.’

‘LEGITIMATE’ CONCERNS

Calls for greater openness also extend to the court caseload itself, especially its so-called ‘shadow’ or emergency docket, an abbreviated decision-making process that has accelerated in recent years. These are cases that are presented to the justices on a time-sensitive basis in its earliest stages, lacking the transparency and deliberation of a typical appeal.

While designed to be temporary in nature, they can have an immediate effect by blocking nationwide enforcement of a challenged law or policy on issues like immigration,  pandemic restrictions and abortion access. These legal ‘applications’ typically lack full briefing, oral arguments or written opinion.

Just this week, the high court is being asked to decide whether the Biden administration can continue working with social media companies to block digital disinformation amid claims conservative viewpoints were being suppressed. An enforcement injunction would remain in place until the case is fully litigated, a process that could take years to resolve.

While some justices have criticized the increasing use of the shadow docket on high-profile disputes, Alito has said critics have mistakenly labeled its use as ‘sneaky,’ ‘sinister’ and ‘dangerous.’

‘And this portrayal feeds unprecedented efforts to intimidate the court or damage it as an independent institution,’ added Alito, who joined the court in 2006.

A Fox News poll from late June found just 48% had confidence in the Supreme Court as an institution. It is the first time that number has dropped below 50% since the question was originally asked in 2014. Three years ago, 68% had confidence in the court, 83% in 2017. This erosion crumbles across the political spectrum, down 48 points among Democrats, 21 among Republicans and 37 among independents since 2017.

‘Confidence in major institutions has been diminishing for a decade or more, but the loss of confidence in the Supreme Court is striking,’ says Democratic Pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. ‘With less than half of Americans confident in the court, and Democrats half as likely as Republicans to feel so, there is a clear perception the country lacks a non-political arbitrator of the laws of the land.’

Some progressives say that may be because the 6-3 conservative court seems overly eager to wade into controversial issues and overturn its own prior rulings.

The court last term prohibited affirmative action in college admissions; the term before, abortion rights from Roe v. Wade, concealed carry gun restrictions and clean-air standards were all tossed out, upsetting decades of Supreme Court precedent.

‘There have been times recently where there have been ideological divides with one side overturning precedent,’ Kagan said last week. ‘I’m hopeful that it won’t have that year after year, case after case — at least it shouldn’t.’

‘There is a real concern today that the Supreme Court is suffering from a legitimacy crisis because there is this sense that the decisions that the court reaches depend on the composition of the court rather than what the law is and what the law requires,’ said Gorod of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Center. 

‘And with new ethical questions popping up every day, new stories about potential conflicts of interest involving the justices, I think, undermine the court’s credibility in the eyes of the American people. And that’s a really, really troubling thing.’

WHO DECIDES?

The wild cards for the Supreme Court heading into 2024 are possible last-minute challenges to election laws: redistricting, voter registration requirements, provisional ballots, early voting and more.

Some court watchers see the potential of another Bush v. Gore, the 2000 presidential election case in which the Supreme Court effectively settled who would sit in the White House.  

And the wildest of wild cards — what is now just legal debate could soon turn into a monumental judicial debate over a provision in the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, disqualifying anyone from the presidency who ‘engaged in insurrection or rebellion.’ 

A lawsuit from Colorado voters seeks to keep Donald Trump off that state’s primary ballot over his role in the 2020 election interference.

For now, the Supreme Court appears content to do its job quietly, free as much as possible from outside interference. It may be wishful thinking. 

‘There’s a storm around us in the political world and the world at large in America,’ Kavanaugh said this month. ‘We, as judges and the legal system, need to try to be a little more, I think, of the calm in the storm.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

China’s speech at the United Nations has caused friction with critics who allege that countries have grown quiet on Beijing’s hypocritical stances with respect to a number of issues, ranging from human rights to the energy crisis.

‘We saw this with a number of Beijing Olympics sponsors who preach social justice in the U.S. and turn a blind eye towards mass torture, rape and forced labor in China,’ Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee on readiness, told Fox News Digital.

‘The appeal of the Chinese market is just too tempting despite their long history of stealing IP, subsidizing competitors and using slave labor,’ he added.

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng focused his speech at the U.N. General Assembly during its annual high-level week on a number of issues related to equity, justice and international peace, saying that ‘diversity is a defining feature of human civilization … civilizations should prosper together by respecting each other, advance together by drawing on each other’s strengths and seek win-win outcomes by pursuing common ground.’

Zheng also said nations should advance human rights through cooperation and oppose double standards; in particular, the use of human rights and democracy as a political tool to interfere in the affairs of other countries.

Many countries at the United Nation’s high-level week found it easy to hit upon Russia and the continued invasion of Ukraine, but few, if any, took China to task for the hypocrisy of espousing the need to advance human rights while committing what a U.N. report called ‘serious human rights violations’ toward its Muslim population, the Uyghur people.

‘People have given up trying to change China. Exhaustion has set in,’ Gordon Chang, senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and author of ‘The Coming Collapse of China,’ told Fox News Digital.

‘At least in the past, people were hopeful about making money in the China market,’ he explained. ‘They thought – correctly – that criticism of China’s rights record would mean Beijing would block them from business opportunities.’

He suggested that the world has not maintained interest in the Uyghur crisis because ‘they cannot see’ the crimes China commits, making it difficult to hold China accountable even as reports from global bodies find continued evidence of human rights abuses.

Chang lambasted China for the fact that ‘virtually all’ of its policies ‘are hypocritical,’ pointing to ‘Beijing’s pronouncements on world peace.’

‘While saying that China has never attacked any other society, China is fueling the Ukraine war with lethal and other aid to Russia, is supporting insurgencies that look like wars in North Africa, and is threatening in East Asia to break apart neighbors as well as annex Taiwan,’ Chang said.

He added that ‘climate activists are not willing to call out Beijing because they think by doing so Chinese leaders will be offended and will not cooperate on an enhanced climate deal,’ but he said the activists ‘have got it backwards.’

Waltz pointed to China’s stance on energy and its urging of the rest of the world to engage new energy policies while continuing to open ‘more coal-fired plants than the rest of the world combined.’ BloombergNEF released a report at the beginning of 2023 that found China had spent more than $500 billion on low-carbon energy production – accounting for half of the total spent around the world in 2022 – but the country still possesses an almost unquenchable thirst for coal and oil energy consumption, according to energy watchdogs.

The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a nonprofit think tank in Helsinki, published a report this year that detailed how China’s coal power plant permitting, construction and project announcement ‘accelerated dramatically’ in 2022 – the highest level since 2015 and exceeding that previous peak.

The only point on which nations continue to find common ground to try and hold China accountable is the issue of Taiwan, but even then the support is checked by the fact that nations continue to affirm the One China policy – part of what the White House has called ‘strategic ambiguity’ about its defense of the island.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in June said that the Biden administration does not support Taiwan independence but remains committed to making sure Taiwan has the ability to defend itself – mainly due to the fact that ‘50% of commercial container traffic goes through the Taiwan Strait every day’ and that ‘70% percent of semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan.’

Waltz called the Biden administration ‘the softest administration on China since the end of the Cold War,’ alleging that the White House has ‘pursued dialogue with China above all else, even at the expense of action on issues,’ such as Taiwan’s backlogged weapons delivery, illegal Iranian oil sales and the Uyghurs.

‘There is a narrative that engaging with China and refraining from consequences will somehow moderate its policy or its desire to dominate Asia,’ Waltz said. ‘Under President Xi, the opposite has been true.’

‘China must face consequences for its behavior – that is the only way it will learn,’ he added.

The White House did not respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment by time of publication.

Fox News Digital’s Louis Casiano contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said the airline will make “modifications” in the next few weeks to its loyalty program after a recently announced overhaul that would make it more expensive for many travelers to earn elite status and get into airport lounges was met with a backlash from customers.

“No question we probably went too far,” Bastian said at the Rotary Club of Atlanta on Monday.

The program changes, which Delta unveiled earlier this month, would reward customers with elite status based on how much they spent, a model similar to that of American Airlines, and reduce access to Delta popular airport Sky Club lounges for many American Express cardholders.

JetBlue Airways tried to capitalize on some customers’ anger over Delta’s changes by offering frequent flyer status matching, saying, “we’ve made it easy for you to cozy up to a new loyalty program and see where it goes.”

Delta has been grappling with a surge in elite travelers, bolstered by Covid pandemic and post-pandemic spending, and swarms of travelers trying to get into its lounges, leading to long lines for many customers. The airline and rivals including American and United have been racing to build bigger airport lounges to cater to swelling numbers of big spenders.

Bastian said the airline will announce the updated program changes in the coming weeks. A Delta spokesman declined to comment further on the changes.

“It’s gotten to the point, honestly, where we have so much demand for our premium product and services that are far in excess of our ability to serve it effectively in terms of our assets,” Bastian said.

He said that over Covid, the airline has doubled the number of Diamond Medallion status members.

More from CNBC

GameStop names Ryan Cohen as CEO effective immediately, won’t receive salary Peloton shares soar on digital content, apparel partnership with Lululemon Saudi soccer league says big-money player purchases are only the first step in a long-term strategy

David Neeleman, CEO of Breeze Airways and founder of JetBlue, told CNBC on Wednesday that he has Delta Medallion status and that he tries to use Delta’s airport lounges but that sometimes “there’s a big line and it’s not worth it.”

Delta last year announced several changes to crack down on overcrowding at the clubs, such as barring employees from using them when flying standby with company travel privileges, even if they had qualifying credit cards. The Atlanta-based carrier also raised prices for club memberships for regular customers.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS