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High-yield bonds tend to trade more like the stock market than like treasury bonds, and what’s more is that these high yield or “junk” bonds are terribly sensitive to liquidity conditions. That sensitivity works both ways. When money is so plentiful that even the most marginal quality investments can get some, that is a sign that liquidity is going to be plentiful for a while for all types of stocks. And when liquidity starts to dry up, these high-yield bonds tend to be the first victims.

Back in 2021, I highlighted the big bearish divergence evident between the higher price highs in the S&P 500 and the lower tops in the High Yield Bond A-D Line. That was a correct omen of the liquidity troubles to come in 2022. Things started looking better coming out of the October 2022 bottom, when we saw strength in this HY Bond A-D Line, but that strength eventually gave way to another bearish divergence versus the S&P 500 in the summer of 2023.

Now we are once again seeing great strength in this A-D Line, as it is going up at a very steep angle, and matching the price gains of the S&P 500 step for step. The message is that liquidity is plentiful, and should remain so for a while. There is no sign of a divergence yet, and I would expect that we shall see a divergence with prices before any real trouble gets started. That has been the track record for these data, which FINRA publishes going back as far as 2005.

One note about these data: You can access them daily at this link. FINRA does not post the data until very late at night for the preceding trading day, because evidently it takes a while to compile all of those statistics. FINRA also rejiggered that web site, changing the format so that it is easier for those who are adept at programming to be able to scrape the data automatically. It takes a while to learn to read through the multiple lines of data, but what you want is to fetch the “CORP” data series if you wish to replicate this chart yourself. Or you can sign up at our web site for our twice monthly McClellan Market Report or our Daily Edition, where we feature it periodically.

(This is an excerpt from today’s subscriber-only DP Alert.)

We thought it might be a good idea to review sentiment today. It should be no surprise that investors are very bullish right now, but how bullish? Too bullish? The charts tell us one thing for sure and that is that sentiment could get even more bullish based on history. Remember that sentiment is contrarian so very bullish sentiment is not necessarily good for the market.

First up is the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index. Those surveyed primarily use technical analysis in their processes so it is interesting to see how exposed or leveraged they are on the market. We have certainly reached exposure levels that could pose a problem given the last two readings at this level resulted in declines. At the same time, readings can get much higher than they currently are and it doesn’t always spell disaster. It is interesting to note that these analysts are very bullish, almost fully invested, but they aren’t leveraged yet.

Next up is the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) chart. Here we see some bullish extremes as noted not only by the amount of bulls, but also shown in the Bull/Bear Ratio. These high ratios often occur before declines. The 2020-2021 rally wasn’t bothered by these high ratios and that could be the case this time around as well, but this chart tells us to not let down our guard yet.

Finally a quick peek at our Rydex Ratio chart. This is a ‘money where your mouth’ is indicator. We aren’t looking at polling results, but actual dollars. We take the total number of bull assets and divide them by total bear and money market assets. Bull assets have climbed considerably, but they aren’t at levels we’ve seen prior so there is room for expansion. However, we have to note that bull assets at this level, often times leads into a decline.

Conclusion: Bullish sentiment abounds, but it isn’t as bullish as it could get. Given the strength of the current rally we think we will see even higher bullish sentiment readings. If the 2021 rally is any indication, these sentiment measures can get extended and not result in lower prices.

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Honda is recalling about 106,000 CR-V hybrid sport-utility vehicles for model years 2020 through 2022.

At issue is a 12-volt battery cable that may be missing a fuse, potentially causing the cable to short-circuit or overheat during a crash.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in a notice on its website that dealers have been instructed to replace the battery cable free of charge. Owner notification letters are expected to be mailed out Jan. 29.

Owners can contact Honda customer service at 1-888-234-2138. Honda’s code for the recall is FGB.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The Federal Trade Commission said Wednesday that Rite Aid secretly used facial recognition on customers for nearly a decade and wrongfully accused many of shoplifting.

The FTC said Black and Asian customers were more likely than white customers to be misidentified as people who had shoplifted or tried to. Women were more likely to be misidentified than men.

According to the complaint, Rite Aid contracted with two companies to help create a database of images of people — considered to be “persons of interest” because Rite Aid believed they engaged in or tried to engage in criminal activity at one of its retail locations — along with their names and other information, such as any criminal background data.

In a statement, Rite Aid said the program was used at only a few stores and discontinued in 2020.

Under the settlement, the agency barred Rite Aid from using facial recognition technology in stores or online for five years. The FTC confirmed to NBC News that it’s the first time it has ordered any entity to stop using facial recognition.

“Rite Aid’s reckless use of facial surveillance systems left its customers facing humiliation and other harms, and its order violations put consumers’ sensitive information at risk,” Samuel Levine, the director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said in a news release.

A bankruptcy court must approve the order, because Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy protection in October.

In its statement, the FTC said Rite Aid started using ‘artificial intelligence-based facial recognition technology’ in 2012 to identify customers who may have been shoplifting or engaging in other undesirable behavior. It contracted with two companies to develop a database of people who had shoplifted or been accused of shoplifting in the past.

People walk past a Rite Aid in Queens, N.Y., on Oct. 16.Anthony Behar / Sipa USA via AP file

The database was often filled with low-quality images from store security cameras, employees’ phones or news stories, along with names and other information, including any criminal background data.

Then the system sometimes identified shoppers as people who had been accused of shoplifting at other stores thousands of miles away or flagged one person at dozens of stores around the country.

The FTC said the system generated thousands of false positives, more commonly in stores in neighborhoods with large Black and Asian populations than with white ones.

‘Employees, acting on false positive alerts, followed consumers around its stores, searched them, ordered them to leave, called the police to confront or remove consumers, and publicly accused them, sometimes in front of friends or family, of shoplifting or other wrongdoing,’ the FTC said.

Customers weren’t informed that Rite Aid was using the technology, and employees were ‘discouraged’ from revealing it, the agency said.

It also said Rite Aid didn’t take steps to mitigate the harm that would have been caused by falsely accusing customers of shoplifting and didn’t regularly monitor or test its system, nor did it tell employees that the system could make mistakes. When the company switched to a technology that enabled employees to report bad matches and required them to use it, it didn’t follow through to make sure employees followed that policy.

Notably, the FTC didn’t fine Rite Aid. Justin Brookman, the director of technology policy for Consumer Reports, said the agency seemed to have prioritized establishing a precedent regarding companies’ responsibilities when they use facial recognition technology in stores.

“I get the impression that it’s growing in practice, so the FTC wanted to get ahead of this to some extent,’ Brookman said.

The FTC said in May that companies that use biometric technologies such as facial recognition have to implement them fairly and mitigate the harm they could cause. It also said companies that offer biometric technology can’t make false promises about its accuracy or effectiveness.

In 2010, just two years before Rite Aid started using the facial recognition technology, it settled an FTC charge saying it failed to protect the medical and financial records of customers and employees. That resulted in a $1 million penalty, and the FTC said that in implementing the facial recognition system and failing to oversee its vendors, Rite Aid violated that settlement.

The agency said Rite Aid will be required to implement ‘a robust information security program, which must be overseen by the company’s top executives.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Americans are heading into 2024 more optimistic about the health of the economy than they have been in months.

The Conference Board reported Wednesday that its Consumer Confidence Index, a measure of how Americans feel about business conditions and the United States’ job market, rose to 110.7 in December, up from 101.0 in November. A component gauge of consumers’ expectations for the next six months saw the largest one-month jump since July.

The upticks are especially noteworthy since consumer spending comprises about two-thirds of the nation’s economy — and has remained solid despite months of shoppers voicing unusual levels of gloom.

“This is the pivot, the beginning of the end of the ‘vibecession,’” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, referring to the concept popularized this year that consumers’ attitudes are out of step with an otherwise strong economy.

This is the pivot, the beginning of the end of the ‘vibecession.’

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US

The Conference Board found the optimism was broad-based, rising this month across all age groups and income levels. But the steepest gains were among people ages 35 to 54 and households earning at least $125,000 a year.

Millions of lower-income families are still under intense pressures that top-line survey figures may not fully reflect. High housing costs have driven homelessness to record levels, and grocery prices are exacerbating food insecurity that federal relief programs and food pantries across the country are struggling to address.

Still, the surprise overall surge in consumer confidence comes during a holiday shopping period that has also defied expectations. Retail sales rose 0.3% in November, even though Wall Street economists had forecast a pullback in spending despite robust seasonal discounts.

Consumers have been helped by relief at the pump, where the average cost of a gallon of regular is $3.10, down from $3.31 a month ago (“Gas prices sleighing it,” AAA declared last week). In addition, the job market has cooled steadily but remained strong, with employers trimming hiring while largely avoiding mass layoffs. The unemployment rate has hovered between 3.4% and 3.7% all year — right in range of its historic lows before the pandemic.

Looking ahead to 2024, consumers in the Conference Board survey said they were moderately more interested in buying vehicles, homes and big-ticket appliances.

“The consumer is feeling pretty well as rates move lower, employers add to their payroll, and income expectations improve,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said in a note Wednesday.

Inflation, now at an annual rate of 3.1%, has slowed sharply over the course of the year, but the Conference Board survey found price increases remain the top concern for consumers. Compared to the 6.3% rate at the beginning of 2023, though, the worst of post-pandemic inflation appears to be in the rearview mirror.

Another boost could be coming from the Federal Reserve, which has signaled that it might start cutting interest rates next year after hiking them to 22-year highs. Although the central bank says its decision-making on rates depends on how inflation develops, cuts could alleviate credit card and auto loan rates that have squeezed consumers. Mortgage rates, reflecting longer-term interest rates, have already started to decline.

The stronger consumer confidence is the latest sign of an economy apparently riding into 2024 clear of a recession, commonly defined as two back-to-back quarters of negative change in gross domestic product. And while plenty of headwinds remain, GDP forecasts have been rising, too, with the Atlanta Fed recently revising up its projection for the economy to grow at an annualized pace of 2.7% in the fourth quarter this year.

It’s a stark contrast to the chorus of warnings in late 2022 that the Fed’s rapid rate hikes would drive up unemployment, snuff out demand across the economy or both.

“Not only did that not happen,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Dec. 13, but “we actually had a very strong year.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Ikea warned of delays on some products due to the mass diversion of shipping containers from the Red Sea over safety concerns.

“The situation in the Suez Canal will result in delays and may cause availability constraints for certain IKEA products,” a spokesperson said by email Thursday.

They added that the safety of staff working in its supply chain was its priority, and it was evaluating other options to secure the availability of products. Ikea does not have its own container vessels but uses external operators.

At least $80 billion worth of cargo has already been diverted from the waterway which provides access to Egypt’s Suez Canal, the quickest passage between Europe and Asia, due to a wave of drone and missile attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants.

Sweden’s Electrolux, the world’s largest appliance company, has set up a task force to find alternative routes and identify priority deliveries, Reuters reported.

Shipping giants Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM are among those to have confirmed this week they will begin diverting ships already in transit around the longer Cape of Good Hope route along the south of Africa as the attacks continue.

Clerc added that it was unclear how quickly firms would see the impact from a new U.S.-led task force, which is seeing advanced air-defense military ships from countries including the U.K. and Italy head to the area.

Europe is set to have the biggest impact from the delays due to its strong trade ties with Asia, and because cargo bound for the Americas can travel via the Pacific.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Less than one-sixth of homes listed in the U.S. between January and November were affordable for a typical household, according to Redfin.

The real estate brokerage says 352,500 homes, or 15.5% of the total that were listed in the first 11 months of the year, were affordable for a typical U.S. household.

Redfin considered listings affordable if the estimated monthly mortgage payment on that home was no more than 30% of the median income of the local county. It assumes a 5% down payment as well, which is close to the minimum many lenders will accept.

There are some limitations to the estimates: Some buyers are able to put down more than 5%, which reduces their mortgage payments, while many are willing to pay more than 30% of their income toward housing. And many buyers aren’t local.

Still, it’s become harder than ever to afford a home. Other metrics show affordability hit all-time lows in late 2023, while the average monthly mortgage payment in the U.S. doubled in the last three years.

That’s been especially bad for Black and Latino buyers, because on average they have lower income and less wealth than white buyers. Redfin says 21.6% of homes listed for sale were affordable for the typical white household, compared to 10.4% for Hispanic/Latino households and 6.9% for Black buyers.

There are two connected reasons for the drop in affordability. One is that home prices soared after the pandemic began as some people moved out of cities quickly, remote work increased and home construction slowed. The other is that mortgage rates have spiked since March 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.

Federal Reserve data shows that 30-year mortgage rates rose from less than 4% in early 2022 to a peak of 8% in October. As rates jumped, fewer people could afford to borrow the money they needed to buy a home. Even if they could get a loan, their dollars did not go as far as before.

At the same time, people who already owned a home were less willing to put theirs up for sale, as that would have likely required them to take out a new mortgage at a much higher rate. That created a spiral of price increases that took several years to ease.

Redfin’s own calculation is that 50% of listed homes were affordable in 2013, the earliest year for which it has data. As recently as 2020, that number was 45% before plunging over the last few years.

Homes have become slightly more affordable in recent months as mortgage rates have decreased. Lender Freddie Mac says the average rate on a 30-year fixed is now 6.67%. That’s much higher than what buyers were able to get from 2010 to 2022, but it’s a notable decline from the peak in October.

It’s been enough of a change to get a few more buyers to put their homes up for sale, and that increase in supply has in turn put downward pressure on sale prices for older homes. Redfin says that should continue in 2024.

Construction of new homes is also on the rise, which should boost affordability to an extent. Interest rates and mortgage rates are expected to decrease further in the years ahead, even if overall home prices are unlikely to return to their pre-pandemic levels.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

In an NFL season marked by unpredictability, one certainty has emerged: Aaron Rodgers is as good a self-promoter as he is a quarterback. Maybe better.

The four-time NFL MVP was never going to make it back this season. No matter the number of times he was seen throwing on the sideline or how many optimistic updates he gave, it wasn’t going to happen. The man had surgery to repair his shredded Achilles a mere 14 weeks ago. The fastest, most amazing recovery from such an injury by an elite athlete was five months. You do the math.

But Rodgers was committed. To keeping himself in the spotlight.

Once one of the more thoughtful and humble players in the NFL, Rodgers has made a late-career shift into carnival barker extraordinaire. He got hoodwinked by junk science during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and somehow thought that made him an enlightened renegade. He spouted that nonsense and styled himself as a free speech warrior when he was criticized for it.

A tip for Rodgers: Free speech does not mean what you think it does. It means the government cannot silence you or take measures to limit your ability to promote your lunatic theories. It does not mean society cannot ridicule you for your arrogance and ignorance.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

Also, if you’re going to claim you’re being canceled, it might be better to not do it during your weekly appearance on a national TV show. A role for which you are paid handsomely, I might add.

But I digress.

Every quarterback – heck, every elite athlete – has an ego. They wouldn’t be where they are if they didn’t. But Rodgers seems to have a larger need than most to be the center of attention.

There were his word games about whether he wanted to return to the Green Bay Packers and who was to blame when the team moved on. His “darkness retreat.” His perfectly choreographed entry for the New York Jets’ season opener that would have been over the top even if he hadn’t previously expressed doubts about 9/11.

Even his shots at Travis Kelce, which just so happened to come after Kelce’s new girlfriend stole the spotlight from what was supposed to be Rodgers’ triumphant return to MetLife Stadium.

So it is no surprise that Rodgers would turn Achilles recovery into an NFL reality show. The surprise is how many people bought the shtick.

“If I was 100% today, I’d be definitely pushing to play. But the fact is, I’m not,” Rodgers acknowledged Tuesday on ‘The Pat McAfee Show.’ “I’ve been working hard to get closer to that but I’m still 14 weeks tomorrow from my surgery, and being medically cleared as 100% healed is just not realistic.’

Of course it’s not. It never was.

But now he’s saddled the Jets with the con, too. In order for Rodgers to keep practicing with the team, which doesn’t seem like a necessity for a guy who coach Robert Saleh said has no chance of playing, the Jets had to add him to the 53-man roster Wednesday. To do that, they had to cut fullback Nick Bawden.

Bawden might not be a marquee name, but he’s played in every game this season and is an important part of the run game. Which, given the Jets’ QB situation, is kind of an important component.

It was clear from his comments Saleh never expected Rodgers to come back this season. It was equally clear he doesn’t want to irritate his QB, who has been known to hold a grudge.

‘It’s all part of his rehab. There will be days he’ll be out there, days when he’s not,’ Saleh said of activating Rodgers. ‘We just have the roster flexibility. Otherwise, we wouldn’t be able to afford to do this.’

Do they really, though? Or did the Jets make the decision back in September that it was in their best interest to placate Rodgers and whatever notions he has and the hell with what’s best for the team?

That Rodgers has even gotten this far is amazing. He was able to return to practice Nov. 29, although in limited fashion, and nothing takes away from that. Rodgers will be an inspiration to other athletes who might once have feared losing nine months to a year to a torn Achilles, and doctors will learn things from this that will help the recovery of others.

But returning, even if the Jets had made the playoffs, was just not going to happen.

‘My instinct says if he was 100% , he’d probably be banging the door a little bit more. But like he said, he’s a couple of weeks away,’ Saleh said.

Rodgers dangling the idea this was even a possibility, though, ensured people would still be watching his every move and listening for each new update. It allowed him to take potshots at, well, pretty much everyone and further his own narrative as a truth seeker and iconoclast.

It was good theater, if you want to call it that, but it was never realistic. Which is besides the point. Rodgers managed to keep himself relevant this entire season despite being on the field for all of four plays.

By that measure, his recovery was a smashing success.

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Wednesday marked early signing day for high school recruits across the country. Highly-touted future college football players signed to play for the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Texas, and other top programs. By Wednesday evening, most of the top-15 recruits had signed on, according to 247Sports’ and On3’s recruiting databases, with one crucial exception.

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1-ranked recruit in the country, hadn’t confirmed his commitment to Ohio State.

The Chaminade-Madonna Prep wideout and top recruit caused a scare for the Buckeyes and their fans. Smith first committed to Ohio State in December 2022 and held a signing day ceremony in south Florida this afternoon.

But Smith hadn’t officially sent his letter of intent (LOI) to the Buckeyes after the ceremony. Hours passed after it finished and Ohio State didn’t confirm his signing, causing some questions.

Other programs like the Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes had previously recruited Smith hard and there was speculation they’d convinced him to change after his verbal commitment. It wouldn’t be the first time it happened on this recruiting cycle; Miami had flipped four-star running back Jordan Lyle from the Buckeyes to the Hurricanes on Monday.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

All those worries and rumors were quelled shortly after 10:00 p.m., ET, when Ohio State confirmed on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Smith had signed his LOI.

Smith headlines the Buckeyes’ fourth-best recruiting class in the country per 247Sports rankings. Ohio State signed four top-50 players in the Class of 2024, including fellow wide receiver Mylan Graham (New Haven).

The Chaminade-Madonna wide receiver finished his prep career with more than 3,000 receiving yards. In his senior season, Smith had 88 catches for 1,376 yards and helped the Lions to a Florida state championship. 247Sports director of scouting Andrew Ivins compared Smith to All-Pro NFL wide receiver Julio Jones, saying he ‘should be viewed as a future WR1 for a College Football Playoff contender that can handle a high-volume of targets and work a full route tree.’

He’ll help fill the shoes left by top wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. in Columbus as Harrison Jr. will likely be a top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

LAS VEGAS (AP) — A former NBA G League player allegedly admitted to fatally strangling a woman whose remains were found earlier this month near Las Vegas, according to court records obtained Wednesday.

“I cannot comment on the substance of any statements made to law enforcement,’ Comanche attorney Michael Goldstein said Wednesday. ‘We made our initial appearance yesterday, and the allegations will be addressed in court.”

The basketball player, who is being held without bond, appeared in a Sacramento County court Tuesday and agreed not to fight his transfer in custody to Nevada, where authorities said he’ll face murder and conspiracy to commit murder charges.

“We’re going to let the courts deal with it,’ Goldstein told reporters outside the court. “We’re going to deal with it in Nevada.”

Comanche’s former girlfriend, Sakari Harnden, 19, is also facing charges in Rodgers’ death, police said. She is being held without bond in a Las Vegas jail.

Anna Clark, a deputy Clark County public defender representing Harnden, declined comment Wednesday about the case.

Rodgers, a medical assistant from Washington state, was reported missing Dec. 7 during a trip to Las Vegas to visit friends. Her remains were later found in the Vegas suburb of Henderson.

According to the affidavit, Comanche and Harnden worked together to choke Rodgers in the early hours of Dec. 6.

Police said Harnden and Rodgers were both sex workers and that Harnden had an ongoing dispute with Rodgers over an expensive watch.

According to the affidavit, the plot called for Comanche to pose as a sex customer who would tie Rodgers’ hands behind her back. Comanche then used a cord while Harnden used both her hands to choke Rodgers, the affidavit said.

Once Rodgers was dead, police said, Comanche and Harnden left her body in a ditch off the side of a road.

Before his arrest, Comanche had been playing for the Stockton Kings, the NBA G League affiliate of the Sacramento Kings, and averaged 14 points and seven rebounds in 13 games.

Comanche, a 6-foot-10 power forward and center, played college basketball at the University of Arizona from 2015-17 before declaring for the NBA draft.

He went undrafted and signed a free-agent contract with the Portland Trail Blazers last April but played only one game.

Sacramento signed Comanche in October but waived him 10 days later, at which point he joined Stockton.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY