ETF Summary

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

I went back to my Outlook 2023 written in December 2022, where I begin with:

You Can’t Run with the Hare and Hunt with the Hounds.

This expression will ultimately summarize the upcoming year.

As the Year of the Tiger loses its roar, the Year of the Rabbit hops into view.

For 2023, one word and two expressions keep coming up:

Chaos,

Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole,

Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places

My readers know we have been buyers of dips in oil and gold. And that got us wondering about Bitcoin. In the next-to-last page of the Outlook, we call Bitcoin “The Family’s Adolescent”.

More:

As the one who is still trying to figure out who it wants to be in relation to the economies domestically and abroad, we love how predictable the chart looks.

A monthly breakdown under $15,950 could lead Bitcoin to lose half its value.

As December 2022 is turning into an inside month, price trading within the trading range of November, a move over $21.500, could catch many bears off guard.”

Considering the outperformance versus the SPY in September, despite currently slightly underperforming, what’s next for our adolescent? Here are some of the recent headlines about cryptocurrencies, specifically Bitcoin.

Prince Filip of Serbia: Bitcoin is an “open secure protocol akin to the internet”.Ark Invest Research forecasts $1.48 million bull case for BitcoinDeadline for the SEC to hear Grayscales’ appeal for a spot Bitcoin ETFPresident of Madiera welcomes BitcoinPaul Tudor Jones: “Bitcoin should “probably take on a larger percentage of your

We find the 2 most interesting headlines are that of Cathie Wood and PTJ. Both bulls, one with a great track record and one with a horrific one. So, could they both be wrong?

The chart of BTCUSD dissected:

Price sits on the 50-day moving average (blue line).The Phase is Distribution.The price is well under the July 6-month calendar range low.In Leadership, it underperforms the SPY.In Momentum, it is slightly below the 50-DMA for a teeny bearish divergence to price.

$26,500 is the support to hold to see higher levels. Ideally, a close over 28,000 sets up the bulls the best. With three peak lows — January 2023, March 2023, and September 2023 — Bitcoin is making higher lows. However, until momentum improves and BTCUSD begins to outperform the SPY, we are more neutral than bullish or bearish.

We do like Friday the 13th’s action, so do not lose track.

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish and Dale Pinkert discuss the disconnect between news and markets-and how to best invest right now in this video from ForexAnalytix’s pre-market show.

In this video from CMC Markets, Mish shares her short-term forecast for USD/JPY and popular commodity instruments ahead of the US PPI announcement and September’s Fed meeting minutes, with recent dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting a potential shift in the committee’s policies.

Mish joins Business First AM to discuss the market reaction to the war in Gaza in this video.

Mish discusses what’s needed for a market bottom on the Financial Sense Newshour podcast with Jim Puplava.

Mish takes over as guest host for David Keller, CMT on the Monday, October 9 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, where she shares her thoughts in the daily Market Recap during a day of uncertain news.

To quote Al Mendez, “The smartest woman in Business Analysis @marketminute [Mish] impresses Charles with her “deep dive” to interpret the present Market direction.” See Mish’s appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne here!

Mish covers bonds, small caps, transports and commodities-dues for the next moves in this video from Yahoo! Finance.

In this video from Real Vision, Mish joins Maggie Lake to share what her framework suggests about junk bonds and investment-grade bonds, what she’s watching in commodity markets, and how to structure a portfolio to navigate both bull and bear markets.

Mish was interviewed by Kitco News for the article “This Could Be the Last Gasp of the Bond Market Selloff, Which Will be Bullish for Gold Prices”, available to read here.

Mish presents a warning in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell — before loading up seasonality trades or growth stocks, watch the “inside” sectors of the US economy.

Watch Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss how pros and cons working in tandem, plus why commodities are still a thing, in this video from Schwab.

Coming Up:

October 19: Live coaching

October 20: StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five

October 23: BNN Bloomberg

October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business

October 29-31: The Money Show

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 435 resistance, 429 support.Russell 2000 (IWM): 177 resistance, 170 KEY support.Dow (DIA): 338 resistance, 332 support.Nasdaq (QQQ): 368 pivotal, 363 support.Regional banks (KRE): 39.80-42.00 range.Semiconductors (SMH): 150 resistance, 143 support.Transportation (IYT): 237 resistance, 225 support.Biotechnology (IBB): 120-125 range.Retail (XRT): 57 key support; if can climb over 61, bullish.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Business

Walgreens names veteran health care executive Tim Wentworth as next CEO

Walgreens Boots Alliance has chosen veteran health care executive Tim Wentworth as the company’s new chief executive.

Wentworth is the former CEO of the nation’s largest pharmacy benefits management company, Express Scripts, which was acquired by Cigna in 2018. He stayed on and served as chief of Cigna’s health services, before retiring at the of 2021.

“What made me decide to come back was a chance to lead this iconic brand and company at a time when it’s not in a steady state,” Wentworth told CNBC. “It’s a massive platform… they touch almost 10 million people a day.”

Tim Wentworth.Business Wire

Wentworth will start on Oct. 23, almost two months after Roz Brewer stepped down as CEO, at a time when the company is facing a number of challenges in trying to transition to becoming a provider of health services beyond the pharmacy counter.

Under Brewer’s tenure, Walgreens took a major stake in primary care provider VillageMD, acquired specialty pharmacy provider Shields Health, as well as homecare provider CareCentrix. Trying to integrate and scale the businesses has pressured Walgreens’ earnings.

The transition has come at a time when pharmacy revenue has been pressured by falling demand for Covid vaccines and over-the-counter tests. In June, the company’s third-quarter profits missed Wall Street estimates for the first time in three years.

Walgreens’ board has said they were intent on hiring an executive with deep health experience who could rein in all of the new services.

“I came from one of the great efficiency companies at Express Scripts — I mean, we were built to drive out waste from health care and and we looked at everything through that lens. And that has to do by starting with our own cost structure, and there’s no question inside this company that’s every bit as important,” said Wentworth.

Walgreens’ executive chairman Stefano Pessina said Wentworth “is an accomplished and respected leader with profound expertise in the payer and pharmacy space as well as supply chain, IT and Human Resources. We are confident he is the right person to lead WBA’s next phase of growth into a customer-centric health care company.”

The company’s core pharmacy business is also facing challenges. This week, pharmacists in several cities have walked off the job to protest understaffing at pharmacies which the non-union workers say endangers patients.

Wentworth says during Covid the drugstore chains pivoted quickly to become major providers of vaccines and supported patients with information.

“When you’re in a business that’s having to respond that quickly to something that is that unusual. You don’t get it all right. And I have no doubt that the leadership at Walgreens is taking a look and listening to their folks,” he said. “As a leader, I can tell you, there’s nothing that motivates me more than ensuring every employee feels like they’re supported in that mission.”

Walgreens is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Business

Social Security recipients will see a cost-of-living increase of 3.2% in 2024

Social Security benefits will increase by 3.2% in 2024, the Social Security Administration announced Thursday morning.

That adds about $50 monthly to the average retirement benefit consumers will receive beginning in January. The annual increases are called cost of living adjustments, or COLAs.

The agency said people on Social Security will start getting the increased payments on Dec. 29.

‘Social Security and SSI benefits will increase in 2024, and this will help millions of people keep up with expenses,’ said Kilolo Kijakazi, the acting commissioner of Social Security. SSI is Supplemental Security Income.

The cost of living adjustment is calculated based on an average of the inflation readings for the months of July, August and September. Specifically, it’s based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The CPI-W rose 2.6% in July, 3.4% in August and 3.6% in September, according to the latest inflation data the bureau released Thursday.

‘Retirees can rest a little easier at night knowing they will soon receive an increase in their Social Security checks to help them keep up with rising prices. We know older Americans are still feeling the sting when they buy groceries and gas, making every dollar important,’ Jo Ann Jenkins, the CEO of AARP, the nonprofit organization formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons, said in an emailed statement.

However, another advocacy group for older Americans, the Senior Citizens League, has argued that larger increases are required, especially for older retirees. It contends that the costs of the goods and services they need are growing much faster than Social Security benefits.

The group says people who retired before 2000 would need an additional $500 in benefits every month just to get back the purchasing power they had in 2000.

Almost 67 million people have been receiving Social Security benefits in 2023, according to the SSA. Most of them are retirees, as almost 90% of people over age 65 were getting those benefits as of June 30.

Inflation rocketed to 40-year highs last year in the wake of a combination of pandemic stimulus payments, an increase in shopping and spending, and widespread supply chain problems. That prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a rapid pace. The benchmark U.S. interest rate is the highest it has been in more than 20 years.

That has slowed the economy somewhat compared to last year, but inflation remains higher than it was throughout the 2010s.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Business

Delta says Hollywood and auto strikes are denting business travel

Recent strikes by Hollywood talent and United Auto Workers union members are a “drag” on business travel demand, which is otherwise recovering, Delta Air Lines President Glen Hauenstein said Thursday.

Delta has an outsized exposure to the automotive and entertainment industries, with a more than 70% market share at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport and a nearly 20% share at Los Angeles International Airport, more than any other carrier, according to airport data.

The strikes have had “a not insignificant change in the business travel to and from Los Angeles as well as now the UAW strike, which curtailed a significant amount of the business in Detroit,” Hauenstein said on an earnings call on Thursday. “We are probably the most impacted by those two sectors.”

The United Auto Workers’ targeted strikes, which began after major Detroit automakers and the union failed to reach labor deals before a September contract expiration, are entering their fourth week — and escalating.

Hollywood writers earlier this week ratified a new three-year contract after nearly 150 days of work stoppage that suspended significant film and TV production.

But Hollywood actors, represented by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists, are still on strike. And late Wednesday, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents production studios like Disney, Universal, Netflix and others, said talks have been been suspended with the two sides far apart on a deal.

Delta’s Hauenstein noted that demand from technology and financial services customers posted double-digit growth in the third quarter, contributing to an overall rebound for business travel.

A company survey of corporate customers found that a majority expect their travel to stay the same or increase in the last three months of this year and into 2024, Hauenstein said.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is a member of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers.

More from CNBC:

Target CEO to meet with Biden as the company — and White House — try to figure out U.S. consumersAMC CEO identified as victim of an online blackmail attempt last yearChargePoint shares fall after EV charging operator announces $232 million raise

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Stocks

Comfort in the Stock Charts (Video Interview)

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Some notes this week:

Growth stocks are acting as a defense move again, especially given that the Fed remains on the fence about interest rate. Small caps and retail though, could still act as an anchor. For now, they both held a key area — 6-7-year business cycle lows — which means recession is currently not definitive. However, stagflation is very much a potential.

Oil prices that broke out over 80 have retested support. A trip back above 86 could be a signal that the current war in Israel might escalate into oil-rich regions like Iran. Natural Gas is also rising.

Then add on to the macro:

Dollar and the US debt which keeps growing; a huge part of the US GDPPPI CPI — hotter than expected.The ratio between SPY and TLT or risk to off is a concern. (HYG to TLT even more so)Fed minutes — proceed with caution.

Overall, social unrest and anger-fueled inflation chaos is not what you want to see. And the situation appears to be becoming more and more volatile.

As picks go, our quant models are still in growth stocks, like META, TSLA, and NVDA, with stops to protect profits. Discretionary picks are light until we see further evidence of how “inside” sectors of the US economy do.

To hear and see firsthand all these points and more, please check out today’s interview with Dale Pinkert.

“I was there for the live interview. Great stuff and what Dale & co are doing with FACE is brilliant. h/t Mich and h/t Coach” — Jamie G.

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish and Dale Pinkert discuss the disconnect between news and markets-and how to best invest right now in this video from ForexAnalytix’s pre-market show.

In this video from CMC Markets, Mish shares her short-term forecast for USD/JPY and popular commodity instruments ahead of the US PPI announcement and September’s Fed meeting minutes, with recent dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting a potential shift in the committee’s policies.

Mish joins Business First AM to discuss the market reaction to the war in Gaza in this video.

Mish discusses what’s needed for a market bottom on the Financial Sense Newshour podcast with Jim Puplava.

Mish takes over as guest host for David Keller, CMT on the Monday, October 9 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, where she shares her thoughts in the daily Market Recap during a day of uncertain news.

To quote Al Mendez, “The smartest woman in Business Analysis @marketminute [Mish] impresses Charles with her “deep dive” to interpret the present Market direction.” See Mish’s appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne here!

Mish covers bonds, small caps, transports and commodities-dues for the next moves in this video from Yahoo! Finance.

In this video from Real Vision, Mish joins Maggie Lake to share what her framework suggests about junk bonds and investment-grade bonds, what she’s watching in commodity markets, and how to structure a portfolio to navigate both bull and bear markets.

Mish was interviewed by Kitco News for the article “This Could Be the Last Gasp of the Bond Market Selloff, Which Will be Bullish for Gold Prices”, available to read here.

Mish presents a warning in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell — before loading up seasonality trades or growth stocks, watch the “inside” sectors of the US economy.

Watch Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss how pros and cons working in tandem, plus why commodities are still a thing, in this video from Schwab.

Coming Up:

October 19: Live coaching

October 20: StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five

October 23: BNN Bloomberg

October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business

October 29-31: The Money Show

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 435 resistance.Russell 2000 (IWM): 177 resistance.Dow (DIA): 338 resistance.Nasdaq (QQQ): 368 pivotal.Regional Banks (KRE): 39.80-42.00 range.Semiconductors (SMH): 150 resistance, 143 support. Transportation (IYT): 237 resistance, 225 support.Biotechnology (IBB): 120-125 range.Retail (XRT): 57 key support; if can climb over 61, bullish.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Stocks

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Communication Services (XLC) and Transports (IYT) New Bullish Bias in IT

DecisionPoint Alert Chart List

The Silver Cross Index is another way for us to measure participation within an index, sector or industry group. It tells us how many stocks have a “Silver Cross” or a 20-day EMA above its 50-day EMA. When it moves above or below the signal line it is a “Shift”. The Golden Cross Index measures what percentage of stocks hold a 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA. We’ll concentrate on the Silver Cross Index in this article.

Today the QQQ’s Silver Cross Index had a “Bullish Shift” as it crossed above its signal line (10-EMA). We also saw Communications Services (XLC) and Transports (IYT) have the same Bullish Shift. This moves the IT Bias to “Bullish”. We thought we would look at the charts to determine if these are good signals or not.

We like the QQQ’s chances of moving higher given the expansion in participation of stocks above their 20/50-day EMAs. The long term is a little murky given the Golden Cross Index is still in decline and %Stocks > 200-day EMA are also in decline. The RSI is positive and the PMO is rising on an oversold Crossover BUY Signal. Stochastics are also above 80. Look for the QQQ to move higher after a short cooling off period.

XLC had a terrible day, but we didn’t see that much damage to %Stocks > 20/50/200-day EMAs. The other indicators are still healthy as well, but we aren’t thrilled with the drop below the prior September high. The Silver Cross Index is oversold and it is rising quite strongly given today’s decline. Under the hood XLC looks like it could see an upside reversal.

We aren’t very bullish on IYT despite today’s Bullish Shift on the Silver Cross Index. %Stocks > 20/50/200-day EMAs are in decline and never really reached our bullish 50% threshold. Price fell at overhead resistance at the 200-day EMA almost as soon as it broke the declining trend. Relative strength is terrible so even if we get a reversal back up, there are likely far better areas of the market to pluck.

Conclusion: The Silver Cross Index and Golden Cross Index are another way to look at participation. DecisionPoint.com has the Silver Cross Index and Golden Cross Index for all major indexes, all of the sectors and select industry groups. Below is our current Bias table that we publish daily in the DecisionPoint Alert. Biases are still very bearish in the long term, but we are beginning to see some improvement on IT Biases. This suggests to us that we have likely hit a significant price bottom in the market.

Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List

DecisionPoint Sector Chart List

DecisionPoint Chart Gallery

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

Stocks

Stocks Continue Feeling The Pressure From Higher Rates

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, guest Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners discusses how small-caps may emerge from the quagmire, along with why it’s important to focus on relative strength. Host David Keller, CMT points out the continued strength of offense over defense and breaks down earnings names including DAL, C, and JPM.

This video originally premiered on October 12, 2023. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon LIVE at 4pm ET. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Stocks

2 Clear Strategies When Using the ADX

On this week’s edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe discusses keys to using the ADX indicator. He focuses on the 2 clear strategies for ADX and how to handle them. In addition, he describes the slope of this line and how that affects the strategy. Joe then analyzes the symbol requests that came through this week, including NFLX, DIS, and more.

This video was originally published on October 12, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

Archived episodes of the show are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show. (Please do not leave Symbol Requests on this page.)

Stocks

EBAY Cannot Hold a Bid

Despite a rough ride in September, the S&P 500 is still up 14% year-to-date and the Nasdaq 100 is up a whopping 40%. The gains here, however, do not tell the entire story because many stocks are struggling in 2023. In fact, around half of the stocks in the S&P 500 are up year-to-date and half are down. EBAY is up less than 2% year-to-date and looks poised to turn negative.

The first chart shows weekly candlesticks with the 40-week SMA and the price-relative (EBAY:SPY ratio) in the indicator window. Long-term, EBAY fell some 50% from October 2021 to October 2022 and then bounced with a rising channel. This channel retraced around 38.2% of the prior decline and EBAY broke the channel with a sharp decline in early March. Even though the stock stabilized after this “breakdown”, it never escaped the gravitational pull of the 40-week SMA (red line) and underperformed the broader market.

The next chart shows daily candlesticks and a breakdown in the making. The stock broke the lower trendline of a rising channel in July and then firmed with a triangle. A triangle after a sharp decline is typically a bearish continuation pattern. It represents a consolidation that alleviates oversold conditions. Stocks are up in October, but EBAY is not participating because it broke the triangle line and exceeded its August lows. This signals a continuation lower and I would expect new lows from EBAY. A close above the 200-day SMA would call for a re-evaluation.

This week on Chart Trader we weighed the long-term evidence for stocks and put forth targets for the oversold bounce in SPY and QQQ. We are still highlighting long setups and trading ideas, but these are limited to stocks in strong groups. Click here for immediate access to our reports and videos.

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Business

Inflation leveled off at 3.7% in September, continuing a gradual consumer price slowdown

Inflation leveled off to 3.7% in September compared to a year ago, extending a gradual slowdown in consumer prices, even as it slowed to 0.4% from 0.6% in August.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest round of price data Thursday morning. Experts had expected it to show that overall prices for consumers rose 3.6% from a year ago, and by 0.2% compared to August.

Meanwhile, core inflation — a measurement of cost increases that excludes energy and food prices because of their volatility — is up 4.1% from September last year, in line with expectations.

That means prices rose less in September than they did in August, when the cost of gasoline had spiked 10% from July.

The government said the cost of shelter rose 7.2% from a year ago. That was the largest reason for the increase, and it reflects continued growth in home prices, which by some measurements are at all-time highs.

Used car and truck prices continued to decline from a year ago.

Food prices grew 3.7%, matching the overall inflation reading, with food from restaurants and ‘away from home’ up 6%. Energy prices slipped 0.5% and natural gas and oil prices also fell.

The report might be especially significant for the trajectory of the economy.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply from March 2022 through this summer as it tried to get inflation under control. Inflation had hit 40-year highs in mid-2022, peaking at 9.1% annually, and it has generally slowed since then.

That doesn’t mean prices are lower than they were. Instead, they’re rising at a slower rate. Still, those slower increases have been a relief to some consumers, and wages have been rising faster than inflation recently, which makes it easier for people to afford goods and services.

What about interest rates going forward?

The Fed left rates unchanged in September, saying there had been progress in its fight against inflation. It’s in wait-and-see mode now.

But after 12 consecutive monthly declines, inflation sped up again in July and August. The increases were small, and there were reasons experts weren’t especially concerned about them — for example, gas prices spiked 10% in August and that hasn’t happened again.

Still, Raul Diaz, a regional senior investment officer at Northern Trust, said there’s no guarantee that inflation will continue to trend down.

‘Inflation could reignite given that the labor market has been very resilient and the U.S. is a very consumer-based economy,’ he said.

If the data shows inflation stayed higher than expected in September, especially in core areas, it might push the Fed to start raising interest rates again.

That would slow the economy further by making it more expensive for people and businesses to borrow money, and it would push mortgage rates even higher.

The Fed will announce its next decision on rates Nov. 1. Its main rate is now in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest since 2000.

While inflation remains higher than the Fed’s goal of 2% a year, experts say there are signs things are going in the right direction even as the economy holds up fairly well.

That’s one reason the Fed left interest rates alone in September. But another higher-than-expected inflation report would challenge that viewpoint.

Like interest rates, mortgage rates are at 23-year highs, which has made it much harder for people to afford homes.

Diaz told NBC News that’s just one challenge facing consumers and the economy in general. He said higher interest rates, the end of the pause on federal student loan payments, the recent increase in gas prices and dwindling personal savings are all likely to affect spending by consumers in the months ahead. It’s why he and Northern Trust think economic growth might be pretty weak over the next year.

‘We’re not predicting a recession over the next 12 months. We just think that growth is going to be positive but pretty low,’ he said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS