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In this week’s edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Carl discusses the war’s effect on the market and looks closer at the effects of high mortgage rates, which have hit multiyear highs. These are pinching not only buyers, but sellers and homebuilders. Afterwards, he goes deeper into the Utilities sector. Erin piggybacks on a recent Seeking Alpha poll regarding which of four retailers are likely to go bankrupt first; she looks at the charts and gives you the results. They then finish with taking your symbol requests.

This video was originally recorded on October 16, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The DecisionPoint Trading Room premiere on the StockCharts TV YouTube channel on Mondays. Past videos will be available to watch here. Sign up to attend the trading room live Mondays at 12pm ET by clicking here!

In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, with US Equities delivering a streak of daily gains this week, Alex and Tyler examine the daily weak NoGo trend conditions against the weak Go trend conditions on the weekly timeframe. The model is calculated the exact same way, but longer timeframe data is showing the S&P holding a Go trend, while daily price action is still in weak NoGo conditions as price reaches a lower high.

This video originally premiered on October 5, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

Learn more about the GoNoGo ACP plug-in with the FREE starter plug-in or the full featured plug-in pack.

Waking up to a new week of geopolitical stress, fake news (Blackrock spot ETF), higher yields, softer dollar, equities rally, I thought to myself: As far as the market goes, it feels like time is standing still.

Why would I think that? After all, it may not last and certainly we have opposing forces. Seasonally, Q4 should be strong. Bank earnings were solid with many more earnings on tap. Inflation remains sticky. Nobody knows if the Hamas-Israel war will escalate, lateralize, or resolve.

Buyers defended the major moving averages in small caps and retail sectors. Our risk gauges are more neutral, not bearish or bullish. Thus there is no better time to go and review our Economic Modern Family on a weekly timeframe to help us assess if time has stopped, for how long and what is next.

Top left, Granny Retail (XRT), since the rally in late July, has not done much. It’s above 57, but below the major weekly moving averages; we could say the range to watch is 57-65 to alter time in perpetuity.

Next is Gramps Russell 2000, Small Caps (IWM). Holding 170, IWM is stuck between major support and overhead resistance at 180. Even a move over 175 would be a good start to get things moving. And, clearly, a move under 170 would not be so healthy for time or investors.

Biotech (IBB) has been stuck in time for the last 4 weeks. 120-125 is the best range to watch.

Sister Semiconductors (SMH) is in a bull phase, is nonetheless stuck between 140-157. As a typical leader of the market, we’re watching her carefully.

Transportation (IYT) had a great rally from June until late August. But since then, it’s sat at April, May, June lows, and now again at those same lows since late September. 220-235 a good range to watch.

Prodigal Son Regional Banks (KRE) may need to be banished from the Family. Since March, the direction of regional banks is questionable, while big banks have the staying power. Nonetheless, KRE, except for a couple of rallies and sell offs, sits between 40-45.

Bitcoin, a new member of the Family, was featured over the weekend in our Daily. Now, a close over 28,000 could begin a decoupling of both the family and time standing still.

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish and Dale Pinkert discuss the disconnect between news and markets-and how to best invest right now in this video from ForexAnalytix’s pre-market show.

In this video from CMC Markets, Mish shares her short-term forecast for USD/JPY and popular commodity instruments ahead of the US PPI announcement and September’s Fed meeting minutes, with recent dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting a potential shift in the committee’s policies.

Mish joins Business First AM to discuss the market reaction to the war in Gaza in this video.

Mish discusses what’s needed for a market bottom on the Financial Sense Newshour podcast with Jim Puplava.

Mish takes over as guest host for David Keller, CMT on the Monday, October 9 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, where she shares her thoughts in the daily Market Recap during a day of uncertain news.

To quote Al Mendez, “The smartest woman in Business Analysis @marketminute [Mish] impresses Charles with her “deep dive” to interpret the present Market direction.” See Mish’s appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne here!

Mish covers bonds, small caps, transports and commodities-dues for the next moves in this video from Yahoo! Finance.

In this video from Real Vision, Mish joins Maggie Lake to share what her framework suggests about junk bonds and investment-grade bonds, what she’s watching in commodity markets, and how to structure a portfolio to navigate both bull and bear markets.

Mish was interviewed by Kitco News for the article “This Could Be the Last Gasp of the Bond Market Selloff, Which Will be Bullish for Gold Prices”, available to read here.

Mish presents a warning in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell — before loading up seasonality trades or growth stocks, watch the “inside” sectors of the US economy.

Watch Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss how pros and cons working in tandem, plus why commodities are still a thing, in this video from Schwab.

Coming Up:

October 19: Live Coaching

October 20: StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five

October 23: BNN Bloomberg

October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business

October 29-31: The Money Show

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 440 resistance, 429 support.Russell 2000 (IWM): 177 resistance, 170 KEY support.Dow (DIA): 344 resistance, 332 support.Nasdaq (QQQ): 368 pivotal.Regional Banks (KRE): 39.80 -42.00 range.Semiconductors (SMH): 150 pivotal.Transportation (IYT): 237 resistance, 225 support.Biotechnology (IBB): 120-125 range.Retail (XRT): 57 key support if can climb over 61, better.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

On this episode of StockCharts TV’s Sector Spotlight, after two weeks of absence, Julius de Kempenaer is back with an in-depth look at the current state of asset class rotation and sector rotation. By slicing sectors into Offensive, Defensive, and Sensitive groups, he paints a picture with an outlook for coming weeks.

This video was originally broadcast on October 16, 2023. Click anywhere on the Sector Spotlight logo above to view on our dedicated Sector Spotlight page, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

Past episodes of Sector Spotlight can be found here.

#StaySafe, -Julius

Today’s report will compare charts and performance for the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD). SOXX represents large-caps and is holding up. XSD represents the average semiconductor stock and it is not holding up. Broad weakness within the semiconductor group is likely to spread to large-cap semiconductor stocks and SOXX. Note that we will cover this and more in tomorrow’s Chart Trader Report & Video.

Equal-weight Semis Break Down – Is SOXX Next?

The first chart shows SOXX peaking in late July and trending lower the last few months (red dashed line). SOXX remains above its 200-day SMA and the Trend Composite remains positive, but a bear flag formed here in October (blue lines). Flags are short-term continuation patterns. The prior move (September) was down so this flag is bearish. A flag break would signal a continuation lower and target a move to the next support zone in the 400 area.

The second chart shows a completely different picture. The Semiconductor SPDR (XSD), which represents the average semiconductor stock, is in a downtrend and underperforming. XSD is below its 200-day SMA and its Trend Composite is negative. The lower window shows the price-relative (XSD:SPY Ratio) below its 200-day SMA since mid August. This means XSD is underperforming SPY. Short-term, XSD broke flag support on Friday and this targets a move to the next support zone in the 175 area.

Large-caps semis (SOXX) are holding up for now, but relative and absolute weakness in the average semi (XSD) is a concern. I expect this broad weakness to extend to large-cap semis (SOXX). By extension, this would be negative for the tech sector, QQQ and the broader market (SPY).

Tomorrow at Chart Trader we will cover broadening weakness within the stock market, a handful of leading groups and some bearish chart setups (stocks). Chart Trader reports and videos are published every Tuesday and Thursday. Click here for immediate access.   

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Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley took aim at House Republicans amid the continued battle over the next speaker of the House, arguing the GOP infighting is bad for the country.

‘They need to get it together,’ Haley said during an appearance on CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ with Jake Tapper. ‘They need to get in a room and figure out who this is going to be and come out unified.’

Haley’s comments come as Congress has been thrust into chaos after Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., forced a vote that removed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his position, which ignited a GOP battle over who will become the next speaker.

Friday, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, was nominated by Republicans as their candidate. The vote has yet to move to the House floor.

Doubts continue to surround the feasibility of electing Jordan to the post after 55 Republicans indicated on a secret ballot that they would not vote for the Ohio lawmaker on the House floor if he were nominated for speaker. That would put Jordan well short of the 217 Republican votes needed for Jordan to get over the top and win the speakership on the House floor.

Democrats, meanwhile, have taken advantage of the GOP infighting, ridiculing Republicans while pushing an effort to elect a more moderate or even Democrat to the top House post.

During her interview with CNN, Haley also said Democrats have plunged the country into chaos, citing inflation, the border, and multiple wars around the world. The GOP hopeful said that Republicans won’t be able to do the work of getting the country back on track if they are divided.

‘You can’t fix Democrat chaos with Republican chaos,’ Haley said while calling on the GOP House to unify around one candidate.

‘That’s what Republicans need to do,’ Haley said. ‘This is not a good look.’

Haley pointed to events going on around the world, including the recent Hamas attacks on Israel, arguing that the infighting between Republicans has helped contribute to a ‘distracted’ America and made the world a more dangerous place.

‘We saw what happened to Israel when they were distracted,’ Haley said. ‘America looks so distracted right now. When America’s distracted the world is less safe.’

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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday said he and other members of a bipartisan delegation of senators were forced to shelter in Tel Aviv after Hamas fired a barrage of rockets while the lawmakers prepared to meet with Israeli leaders.

Schumer, D-N.Y., posted a photo on X showing himself, Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, and others standing in a close-quarters shelter.

‘While in Tel Aviv today, our delegation was rushed to a shelter to wait out rockets sent by Hamas,’ the majority leader wrote. ‘It shows you what Israelis have to go through. We must provide Israel with the support required to defend itself.’

Schumer, the first Jewish Senate majority leader and the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in the U.S., led a bipartisan group of senators, including Republican Sens. Romney and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Democratic Sens. Jacky Rosen of Nevada and Mark Kelly of Arizona.

Schumer said the delegation was having ‘good, productive meetings’ with Israeli leaders, which included Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog and senior opposition figure Benny Gantz, who is part of a newly formed wartime cabinet in Israel.

Discussions were expected to include what kind of support Israel needs for both military and humanitarian operations. 

‘I’ll lead the effort in the US Senate to provide Israel with the support required to defend itself from this monstrous attack,’ Schumer wrote on X.

An Israeli ground assault on Gaza was looming on Sunday after Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Oct. 7 that killed 1,300 Israelis, most of them civilians, and took dozens of hostages back to Gaza. The Gaza Health Ministry said more than 2,300 Palestinians have been killed since the fighting erupted.

While negotiations are ongoing, Schumer earlier said he expects any spending package should include aid for Israel and Ukraine, along with possible aid for Taiwan as it faces threats from Beijing and money for the U.S. border.

Other high-ranking U.S. officials who have visited Israel in recent days included Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Two Republican lawmakers are moving to introduce legislation that would prohibit the U.S. from accepting potential Palestinian refugees displaced by the conflict in Israel.

Reps. Tom Tiffany, R-Wis., and Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., will introduce the Guaranteeing Aggressors Zero Admission Act, or the GAZA Act, which aims to prevent the Biden administration from granting visas to holders of Palestinian passports, according to a report from the New York Post Saturday.

‘We can’t let President Biden abuse our parole and visa rules to bring unvetted Palestinians into American communities the way he did with thousands of unvetted Afghans,’ Tiffany said of the legislation in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

The bill would also prohibit the Department of Homeland Security from allowing Palestinians into the country through its parole program.

According to the report, experts believe that there could be more than a million Palestinian refugees from Israel’s bombardment of Gaza.

‘I introduced the GAZA Act to protect America’s national security,’ Tiffany said.

The bill comes at the same time as Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., announced his intention to introduce legislation aimed at forcing the Biden administration to cancel visas for foreign nationals who ‘endorse or espouse terrorist activity.’

‘America is the most generous nation on earth, but we cannot allow foreign nationals who support terrorist groups like Hamas and march in our streets calling for ‘intifada’ to enter or stay in our country,’ Rubio said in a press release. ‘The Biden administration has the authority and an obligation under existing law to immediately identify, cancel the visas of, and remove foreign nationals already here in America who have demonstrated support for terrorist groups, and in many cases, even celebrated the slaughter of Israeli babies and the rape of Jewish girls.’

The GOP moves come as some Democrats have called for the U.S. to accept refugees from Gaza, including Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., who stressed that the U.S. should not allow members of Hamas to enter the country.

‘The international community as well as the United States should be prepared to welcome refugees from Palestine while being very careful to vet and not allow members of Hamas,’ Bowman told the New York Post.

Reached for comment by Fox News Digital, a White House National Security Council spokesperson noted that ‘all refugees undergo robust screening and vetting prior to being admitted to the United States,’ adding that ‘at this time, there are no plans for new visa programs.’

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White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Sunday the U.S. is ‘actively trying’ to locate hostages taken in Gaza and ‘won’t rule anything in or out’ regarding the American effort. 

On ‘Fox News Sunday,’ host Shannon Bream pressed Kirby on whether U.S. special operations forces would step in to physically assist in hostage retrieval. 

‘There’s no plans or intentions to put U.S. troops on the ground to fight in this fight between Israel and Hamas,’ Kirby said. 

‘We are actively trying to find out where they are,’ Kirby said, of the Americans taken hostage. ‘We don’t even know how many exactly. A small handful we know, but there could be more than we know. They could be in different groups. They could be moved around. I think you can understand. I hope everybody can understand – we’re gonna be careful about what we say publicly about our efforts to get those hostages home. Secretary Blinken’s in the region right now traveling around. I can tell you this is high on his agenda. We’re working this literally by the hour, but we’re not going to get ahead in where we are in policy operations since we don’t have necessarily all the information that we need to try to get them home.’ 

In light of what sounded like a reluctance to put American forces in the Gaza Strip, Bream pressed on whether the U.S. could ever consider sending personnel to get involved.

‘Would you absolutely rule out the possibility of any kind of US forces being on the ground?’ Bream asked. 

‘What I won’t do is rule anything in or out when it comes to getting our hostages home,’ Kirby said. ‘We’re working on this literally by the hour. But again, in order for you to develop specific policy options, you gotta have a lot more contextual information than is available to us right now. And we’re working at that.’ 

Kirby said rescuing American hostages remains high on President Biden’s priority list. 

‘Nothing’s more important to him than the safety and security of Americans held hostage overseas and we’re not gonna stop until we can get them back with their families,’ he added. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to Israel this week after completing a frantic six-country rush through Arab nations aimed at preventing the Israel-Hamas war from igniting a broader regional conflict. The State Department announced Blinken’s plan to travel Monday to Israel – his second visit in five days – as America’s top diplomat arrived in Cairo for talks Sunday with Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. It was the last of Blinken’s meetings with Arab leaders amid the increasing likelihood of an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza. 

HERO ISRAELI K-9 UNIT CREDITED WITH RESCUE OF OVER 200 CIVILIANS DURING HAMAS TERROR ATTACK   

Kirby also said Sunday that the United States is ‘worried about the potential of escalation and widening of this conflict.’ 

‘We don’t want to see any actor, be it a state actor like Iran or another terrorist group like Hezbollah, widening this conflict, opening up additional fronts that will distract the Israeli Defense Forces from their primary fight against Hamas,’ he said. ‘And that is why the president ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group into the eastern Mediterranean as a strong deterrent message. And that is why we also just recently announced that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier and her escort ships will be heading that way to be available for regional deterrent operations.’ 

Blinken on Sunday already met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh as the Biden administration scrambles to prevent a broader regional conflict.

‘The Secretary highlighted the United States’ unwavering focus on halting terrorist attacks by Hamas, securing the release of all hostages, and preventing the conflict from spreading. The two affirmed their shared commitment to protecting civilians and to advancing stability across the Middle East and beyond,’ State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement after the meeting. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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National security adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday warned that Hezbollah militants pose a ‘real risk of escalation’ at Israel’s northern border. 

Sullivan, making the rounds on several Sunday TV news shows, also noted Iran’s possible involvement, as the regime has long bolstered the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon. 

‘We are concerned. We see a real risk of escalation on the northern border,’ he told ABC’s ‘This Week.’ ‘And that is why President Biden has been so clear and forceful in saying that no state and no group should seek to exploit this situation to their advantage or should escalate the conflict. And in fact, he has now sent the USS Eisenhower from the United States toward the region to give additional capacity to respond to any contingency and also to send a clear message of deterrence that no one should get involved in this, no one should escalate this.’

‘We don’t have some specific new intelligence that the threat is different today from yesterday. The threat yesterday was real. The threat today is real. There is a risk of an escalation of this conflict, the opening of a second front in the north and, of course, of Iran’s involvement,’ Sullivan added during his appearance on CBS ‘Face The Nation.’ 

Cross-border clashes between armed factions in Lebanon and Israel intensified Sunday, with the Hezbollah terrorist group firing rockets and Israeli forces responding with shelling.

The Israeli army also reported a shooting at one of its border posts. The fighting has killed at least one person on the Israeli side and wounded several on both sides of the border.

Iran-backed Hezbollah, an ally of Gaza’s Hamas rulers and longtime enemy of Israel, said in a statement that it had fired rockets toward an Israeli military position in the northern border town Shtula in retaliation for Israeli shelling that killed Reuters videographer Issam Abdallah on Friday and two Lebanese civilians on Saturday.

However, Hezbollah spokeswoman Rana Sahili said Sunday’s increase in the intensity of the exchanges with Israel doesn’t indicate Hezbollah has decided to fully enter into the Hamas-Israel war, according to The Associated Press. The fighting on the border is ‘only skirmishes’ and represents a ‘warning,’ she said.

Sullivan also spoke about efforts to get Americans out of Gaza, noting how ‘Hamas has intervened’ in some cases to prevent Palestinians, Palestinian Americans and others from being able to travel across the border to Egypt. In an appearance on CNN’s ‘State of the Union,’ Sullivan vowed Biden ‘will make hard decisions to get American hostages home.’ 

He denied Hamas’ idea of a potential prisoner swap was under active consideration by the U.S., saying the Biden administration’s ‘focus is on working through those third country channels.’

‘For President Biden, they are a priority,’ Sullivan said. ‘They’re the highest possible priority. And he has sent hostage experts to coordinate and consult with the Israeli government on hostage recovery efforts. He’s also made sure that our diplomats are in touch with third countries in the region to explore avenues for their safe release. I have to be cautious about how much I can say about certain efforts he’s undertaking, because we want to protect those efforts to give us the best possible chance of getting our people home.’

‘One important point when it comes to the issue of the Navy SEALs is we do not at this point have pinpoint location information for where the American hostages are,’ Sullivan told CNN host Jake Tapper. ‘So we have to continue to refine our understanding of where they are and even Jake, who they are, because we know there are 15 unaccounted for Americans, but we cannot confirm the precise number of American hostages being held by Hamas at this time.’ 

Sullivan told CBS the U.S. is also focused on the broader civilian population of Gaza, ‘because the vast majority of Palestinians in Gaza have nothing to do with Hamas, that they can get to safe areas, that they can get access to food, water, medicine, shelter, and that they can be protected from the fighting as it intensifies and as a potential ground operation moves forward.’ 

‘Gaza being governed by a brutal and vicious terrorist organization is not just a challenge for the state of Israel. It’s a challenge for the Palestinian people because Hamas does not represent their highest aspirations,’ Sullivan said. ‘Hamas is not looking out for… one iota about their welfare and well-being. So the Palestinian people in Gaza do deserve a leadership that allows them to live in peace and dignity and security.’ 

Biden’s national security adviser said the U.S. was not ‘making requests or demands of Israel with respect to its military operations,’ adding that the administration was ‘simply stating our basic principles – the principles upon which this country is based and all democracies, including Israel, are based. It’s what makes us different from the terrorists, that in fact we respect civilian life.’ He said the U.S. was not ‘not interfering in their military planning’ or giving them any specific instructions. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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