Shohei Ohtani’s unprecedented feats should endure for at least a decade. Yet one of his greatest gifts to baseball fans is a parlor game that will soon expire.

Just how much is the greatest two-way player in history worth on the open market?

For the better part of two years, it’s been pure conjecture mixed with a little math and a lot more vibes. Now, Ohtani is actually a free agent, and both well-informed projections and pie-in-the-sky dreams will give way to reality, perhaps in the next month or so.

And with all the data points in – his pitching dominance, his hitting exploits, his significant health concerns, and a grim free agent market coupled with dozens of thirsty teams aiming to compete in an expanded-playoff reality – it’s time for one more meditation on value.

So let’s start from the top and work backward: 10 years, $684 million.

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Nuts, right?

No, we don’t actually think Ohtani will command that much once his recruitment hits high gear. Simply, $684 million is the combined value of the biggest free agent contracts in history for a position player (Aaron Judge, nine years, $360 million) and pitcher (Gerrit Cole, nine years, $324 million).

And it’s a little uncanny how often both men come up in recent statistical comparisons to Ohtani.

Those contracts were both doled out by the New York Yankees in the past four offseasons, and inflation has only been good for free agents since Cole signed in December 2019. Yet even in the healthiest times, the functionality of Ohtani’s two-way brilliance doesn’t allow him to average 33 starts per year, as Cole has since 2021.

Nor has it enabled him to play more than 135 games in three of his five full major league seasons, bookended by a pair of elbow reconstruction surgeries.

Yet at 29, Ohtani is the same age as Cole when the right-hander signed his deal, and a year younger when Judge set the position-player standard.

Tough equation, eh?

Well, we’ll try once more to solve it before this thing gets settled for reals, and a lucky – and well-heeled – suitor reels in arguably the most remarkable player in baseball history:

Ohtani: The hitter

It’s easy for the mind’s eye to recall Ohtani as a dominant two-way force since he transitioned from Japan to Major League Baseball. Yet a blown ulnar collateral ligament suffered as a pitcher just two months into his big league career initially curtailed his production on both sides of the ball.

Since his 2018 debut, Ohtani ranks 10th among major leaguers with 171 home runs (Atlanta’s Matt Olson leads with 206) and seventh with a .922 OPS (teammate Mike Trout is tops at 1.024).

Yet the 60-game COVID-19 season serves as a key line of demarcation for Ohtani. He appeared in two games as a pitcher at the tail end of that truncated season, his progression from Tommy John surgery complete.

And when baseball returned at full capacity, Ohtani truly took off.

Since 2021, Ohtani ranks second in the majors in OPS, his .964 mark trailing only Judge’s 1.017. His 124 homers rank fourth behind Judge (138), Olson (127) and Kyle Schwarber (125).

And he’s fourth in adjusted OPS, a key metric since he gets dinged for having the vast majority of his plate appearances at designated hitter. Ohtani’s 161 mark trails only Judge (178), Houston’s Yordan Alvarez (163) and Trout (162).

At this point, it’s key to note that among those four in that stretch, Ohtani has the most plate appearances – 1,904, compared to Judge’s 1,787, Alvarez’s 1,655 and Trout’s 1,007.

Yep, despite requiring another UCL repair and throwing 100-ish pitches once a week, Ohtani is more durable than his superstar hitting peers.

Sure, those big power numbers come at some cost – Ohtani ranks 10th with 493 strikeouts since 2021. But again, Judge’s 6-7 shadow only illuminates Ohtani: They have an identical strikeout rate – 25.9% – in that span.

While it’s uncertain how Ohtani’s athleticism changes with age, we’d be remiss not to mention that he led the majors with eight triples in 2021, the same year he stole 26 bases under the old, less liberal rules. Ohtani snagged 20 more bags this year.

We’re not here to start another Judge-Ohtani fan skirmish; it’s actually kind of cool that the two bicoastal stars will alternate MVP awards over this three-year stretch.

But it’s not a stretch to suggest Judge’s contract serves as at least a baseline for Ohtani’s value with a bat in his hands.

Ohtani: The pitcher

If it seems like Ohtani is equally dominant in both his vocations, well, you’re not imagining it.

According to Baseball-Reference’s version of Wins Above Replacement, Ohtani ranks 18th among position players since 2021 with 14.3 WAR.

In that same stretch, he’s produced 14.2 WAR as a pitcher.

Yet while Ohtani trails more than a dozen players in position-player WAR (Judge is first at 21.2), he’s tied for fifth among pitchers – likely an indication that even the greatest teams can’t scrounge up enough competent starting pitchers.

The top five in pitching WAR since 2021 are somewhat instructive to Ohtani’s value there.

No. 1 is Zack Wheeler (16.8 WAR), who signed a five-year, $118 million deal with Philadelphia before the 2020 season, a mild leap by the Phillies since Wheeler had never reached 200 innings and only twice made at least 30 starts in his six seasons prior.

No. 3 is Sandy Alcantara (15.5), who opted for early financial security in signing a five-year, $56 million deal after his third full season.

No. 4 is Max Scherzer (14.5), who commanded a $43.3 million annual salary even as that contract takes him to his 40th birthday.

And No. 2, at 15.6, is Cole.

The likely 2023 AL Cy Young winner probably hasn’t received enough love for more than living up to the first four years of his landmark contract – he’s led the majors with 722 strikeouts and 44 wins in our 2021-23 sample, and his 1.02 WHIP ranks fourth among the top 20 WAR crowd.

Ohtani can’t quite reach that rent district.

He ranks 14th in that span with 542 strikeouts in 74 starts; since Ohtani typically pitches just once a week while most starters go every fifth day, everyone else in the top 15 started between 80 and 97 games the past three years.

Ohtani fares better in strikeouts per nine innings, ranking 10th with 11.4 among starters. Drill down further, and he ranks third, behind Blake Snell and Dylan Cease, among pitchers who have started at least 15 games all three years.

As for earned-run average? Ohtani’s 2.84 mark ranks sixth among starters who have thrown at least 300 innings over the past three years; Cole’s 3.11 ranks 15th.

Still, the ability to post reigns supreme among the game’s horses. Cole has pitched 591 very quality innings since 2021, compared to Ohtani’s 428 ⅓.

That’s 72% of Cole’s innings total. For those of you applying the simplest of math at home, 72% of $324 million over nine years is $233.3 million, or $26 million as a pitcher per year.

Gulp.

Ohtani’s kryptonite

Alas, Ohtani’s new team (or old, if he re-signs with the Los Angeles Angels) won’t enjoy that portion of Sho-Time until at least 2025. Ohtani’s second reconstruction of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow will keep him from the pitching mound all of next season, and probably a portion of the following one.

Agent Nez Balelo and the Angels were careful not to reveal whether this procedure, performed in September by orthopedist Neal ElAttrache, was Tommy John surgery. Two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom took a similar informational path when he underwent a second surgery for a torn UCL.

Regardless of what ElAttrache found and repaired in the elbow, the second procedure is far from a death knell for Ohtani the pitcher, but certainly raises concerns for an acquiring team.

You need look no further than the final game of 2023 to find a two-time Tommy John success story: Nathan Eovaldi had the procedure twice and has gone on to pitch for two World Series winners, getting the win for the Rangers in Game 5 to finish off the Diamondbacks. With the recent rash of hard-throwing two-time UCL victims, Ohtani will have plenty of company: Walker Buehler, Shane McClanahan and deGrom are among the former All-Stars also returning from a second surgery.

The procedure has improved its success rate significantly, and clubs can be relatively confident that by 2026, Ohtani will resemble the dominant ace he was the past three seasons. Yet the greatest fear, particularly in a contract the length Ohtani will command, is another UCL tear.

How might a club build in protections for a scenario that may confine Ohtani merely to hitting? Will the orthopedic world continue innovating elbow repairs – such as the internal brace option – that can ensure better success for three-time victims ?

They are all significant uncertainties surrounding a player who inspires only awe and confidence beyond a tiny ligament in his right elbow.

Another path forward?

Ohtani was, essentially, a one-person lab experiment the past six years. He and the Angels developed a plan for him as a two-way player that worked to phenomenal success. (Save for the UCL tears, which might have been unavoidable regardless of usage).

The question going forward is whether his routine – pitching roughly once a week, serving as DH the rest of the time and steadfastly avoiding playing the field – might ever be subject to change.

Ohtani loved his comfort level in Anaheim, and industry speculation suggests that may prod him toward a return there despite the Angels’ well-documented on-field futility. But unlike Ohtani’s first informational tour of the majors that preceded his signing with the Angels, there’s a six-year sample to chew on.

And beyond tourist videos and teammate testimonials, teams courting Ohtani may also present alternate modes of usage.

Maybe Ohtani 2021-23 is the maximum version of himself. But serving strictly as DH is confining for potential suitors; aesthetically, it’s a bit of a shame that one of the world’s greatest athletes is confined to a position better fit for aging, slow-footed sluggers.

Logistically, it takes teams like the Phillies, barring a trade or two, almost out of the Ohtani running due to the presence of players like Schwarber who need a DH landing spot.

And that’s going to be the case for many of the favorites to sign him.

Take the Dodgers. First baseman Freddie Freeman is signed through 2027, by which time he’ll be 38. Mookie Betts is signed through 2033, taking him right up through his 40th birthday.

Those fellows might need a few DH days going forward; at the least, having three aging former MVPs on the roster begs for flexibility.

Perhaps the path is pitching a bit less – say, every 10 days? – and playing the field a bit more. (We’re not physiologists, simply spitballing).

Either way, a willingness for flexibility will only help Ohtani’s market now – and aid his future team’s roster in the future.

Consensus

Oh, you want an actual number?

Can’t blame you for asking, even if the aforementioned factors are so volatile, as is the manner in which the dozen-plus teams kicking Ohtani’s tires might quantify “value.”

Yet since it’s not our money, let’s give him the moon, and start with Judge’s nine years and $360 million. Add another year, because people love round numbers, it gives Ohtani’s club a smidge of luxury tax relief and still sends him on his way before his 40th birthday.

The pitching piece? The elbow surgery penalty? The marketing upside? The ticket sales and TV ratings bumps?

Hoo, now we’re sailing into the unknowable. But bidders don’t have the luxury of certainty. The winner does buy years and years of credibility with their fan base; ask the Phillies and Padres how much that can matter.

And they also enjoy the services of an all-time great, still in his prime.

Let’s keep it neat: Ten years, $510 million, making Ohtani baseball’s first $50 million man and blowing away the standard for total value in a North American sports contract.

Kind of a bargain for two MVP-caliber players, don’t you think?

We’re hoping that the mascot for Phoebus High School doesn’t have to do push-ups following every point scored. If so, they better serve protein drinks and Red Bulls at the snack shop.

That will be one tired mascot.

That’s because Phoebus (Hampton, Virginia) beat Jamestown (Williamsburg, Virginia) by a 104-0 score line. Did the scoreboard actually have enough room for triple-digit points?

It is another dominating performance from Phoebus. The Phantoms have shut out their opponent in six of their last seven games. They’ve scored 226 points in their last four games.

Their 226-2 advantage in their last four games is mind-blowing. (And, yes, their only points against during this run is a safety.)

Jamestown had a difficult season and finished 1-10. It lost its previous game 84-0 at Warhill (Williamsburg, Virginia).

With the win, Phoebus improves to 11-0.

The Big Ten has suspended Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh for the remainder of the regular season for his role in the program’s sign-stealing scandal, the conference announced Friday.

The conference found Michigan ‘in violation of the Big Ten Sportsmanship Policy for conducting an impermissible, in-person scouting operation over multiple years, resulting in an unfair competitive advantage that compromised the integrity of competition.’

Harbaugh will not be allowed to attend games but will be able to attend practices and preparations for the team.

‘As a penalty imposed on the institution, the University football team must compete without its Head Football Coach for the games remaining in the 2023 regular-season, effective immediately,’ a statement from the Big Ten said. ‘This disciplinary action shall not preclude the University or its football team from having its Head Football Coach attend practices or other football team activities other than the game activities to which it applies. For clarity, the Head Football Coach shall not be present at the game venue on the dates of the games to which this disciplinary action applies.’

Harbaugh will miss Saturday’s road game against No. 9 Penn State and another the following week at Maryland. The team’s home game against No. 3 Ohio State on Nov. 25 should decide the Big Ten East champion.

Harbaugh would be able to coach in the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 2 if the Wolverines win their division.

The university released a statement Friday afternoon shortly after the team’s flight landed in State College, Pennsylvania. It was unclear whether Michigan would be able to request a preliminary injunction or a temporary restraining order from a judge before Saturday’s game, due to the Veterans Day federal holiday.

‘Like all members of the Big Ten Conference, we are entitled to a fair, deliberate, and thoughtful process to determine the full set of facts before a judgment is rendered,’ the statement reads. ‘To ensure fairness in the process, we intend to seek a court order, together with coach Harbaugh, preventing this disciplinary action from taking effect.’

An investigation into Michigan’s sign-stealing apparatus began after detailed reports showed how an off-field staffer, Connor Stalions, broke NCAA rules by acquiring video of opponents’ signals through a network of associates who would be paid to attend games and record calls used to send in specific plays.

While deciphering signals sent from the sideline is not a violation of NCAA rules, there are bylaws prohibiting teams from conducting any ‘off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents’ in the same season of play, according to the NCAA rulebook. There is also a rule against using any type of recording device to track signals.

The conference’s handbook gives commissioner Tony Petitti the ‘exclusive authority’ to discipline Harbaugh and Michigan through the Big Ten sportsmanship policy, which reserves the league’s right to institute punishment for actions ‘that are offensive to the integrity of the competition, actions that offend civility, and actions of disrespect.’

The Big Ten said that it did not have specific information that Harbaugh knew of the scheme, but the suspension of the coach was the best way to punish the school.

‘This is not a sanction of Coach Harbaugh,’ the league’s letter said. ‘It is a sanction against the University that, under the extraordinary circumstances presented by this offensive conduct, best fits the violation because: (1) it preserves the ability of the University’s football student-athletes to continue competing; and (2) it recognizes that the Head Coach embodies the University for purposes of its football program.’

This sign-stealing scandal has gripped college football and engulfed the Wolverines’ quest for the program’s first unshared national championship since 1948. The school split a national title with Nebraska in 1997.

Harbaugh denied any knowledge of a sign-stealing system in a statement issued on Oct. 19.

“I do not condone or tolerate anyone doing anything illegal or against NCAA rules,” he said. “No matter what program or organization that I have led throughout my career, my instructions and awareness of how we scout opponents have always been firmly within the rules.”

This is the second time Harbaugh has missed games this season due to a suspension, following a three-game suspension self-imposed by the university to open the year due to alleged rule violations committed during the COVID-19 dead period.

The decision to suspend Harbaugh comes with the Wolverines ranked No. 2 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

A member of the playoff selection committee, university athletics director Warde Manuel skipped Tuesday’s meetings to see to ‘important matters regarding the ongoing investigation into our football program,’ he said in a statement.

The long-delayed Kamila Valieva doping hearing at the Court of Arbitration for Sport in Switzerland ended in fitting style Friday afternoon: there will now be another infuriating 2 1/2-month wait for a ruling from the three arbitrators in the case.

“The parties have been informed that the CAS Panel in charge of the matter will now deliberate and prepare the Arbitral Award containing its decision and grounds which is expected to be notified to the parties by the end of January 2024,” the CAS media release announced.

The CAS announcement would never add this, but we certainly will:

If the decision is delayed by one more week, it would come on the two-year anniversary of the finals of the team figure skating competition at the Beijing Olympics Feb. 7, 2022, when Russia won the gold medal, the United States won the silver medal and Japan won the bronze.

What a priceless punctuation mark that would be for this historic fiasco.

Of course the athletes still do not have those medals, and now obviously won’t get them until sometime in 2024, presumably. Never before has an Olympic medal ceremony been canceled, so never before have athletes had to wait two years to receive their medals.

“Everyone deserves a well-reasoned decision based on the evidence but for this sorry saga not to be resolved already has denied any real chance of justice,” U.S. Anti-Doping Agency CEO Travis Tygart said in a text message Friday afternoon. “The global World Anti-Doping Agency system has to reform to ensure no athlete is ever robbed of their sacrifice, hard work or due process, including their rightful moment on the podium.”

This endless saga began the day after the 2022 Olympic team figure skating event ended, when the results were thrown into disarray after Valieva, the then-15-year-old star of the Russian team, was found to have tested positive for the banned substance trimetazidine six weeks earlier at the Russian championships.

After the Beijing Olympics ended, the sole organization charged with beginning the Valieva investigation was the Russian Anti-Doping Agency, which itself was suspended from 2015-2018 for helping Russian athletes cheat. Not surprisingly, RUSADA dithered and delayed through most of the rest of 2022, setting the process back by months.

Now that the CAS hearing has concluded, the arbitrators will deliberate and eventually write their decision. When that ruling is announced, the International Skating Union, the worldwide governing body for figure skating, will then decide the final results of the 2022 team figure skating competition.

If Valieva, considered a minor or “protected person” under world anti-doping rules because she was 15 at the time, is found to be innocent, the results likely will stand: Russia, U.S., Japan.

If she is deemed guilty, it’s likely the U.S. would move up to the gold medal, followed by Japan with the silver and fourth-place Canada moving up to take the bronze.

When all this will happen, and how the skaters will receive their medals, is anyone’s guess. One idea that has been floated is to honor the figure skating medal winners with a ceremony at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games next summer, but if Russia keeps the gold medal, there is no way that will happen as Russia’s war in Ukraine rages on.

Like everything else in this grueling saga, there is no definitive answer, and, more importantly, no end.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be without at least one their key wide receivers for their Week 10 game against the Houston Texans and could have both stars out of action on Sunday.

The Bengals other star receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, was listed as questionable for Sunday. Head coach Zac Taylor said “we’ll” see when asked if Chase will play. Chase is dealing with a back injury and underwent an MRI on Tuesday that revealed no structural damage.

Chase took off from practice Wednesday and was able to practice routes on Thursday and said he felt ‘OK and didn’t have too much pain.’ According to Chase, his mentality is that he is going to play until told otherwise.

Chase ranks fourth in the league with 64 receptions and has added 697 yards and four touchdowns to his statline so far this season. He had a franchise record 15 catches for 192 yards in a Week 5 win over the Arizona Cardinals.

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Higgins was the Bengals’ leading receiver in last week’s win over the Buffalo Bills with eight receptions for 110 yards. He has 27 catches for 328 yards and two touchdowns on the season.

Defensive end Sam Hubbard will also miss Sunday’s game. Hubbard injured his ankle in the Week 9 win over the Buffalo Bills, but it doesn’t appear to be a long-term injury.