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A game with no winners? Bengals, Ravens both dealt serious setbacks

It’s still not clear if anybody truly won.

The loss was clearly devastating to Cincinnati, which fell to 5-5 while suffering a season sweep at the hands of the Ravens (8-3) – a tiebreaker that would severely hinder the Bengals’ ability to win the division for a third straight season.

The defeat also left Cincinnati in a four-way tie for eighth place in the overall AFC standings, currently a half-game out of the final wild-card position.

Turns out, that was the least of the Bengals’ concerns.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

Pro Bowl quarterback Joe Burrow, who became the NFL’s highest-paid player earlier this year after signing a five-year extension that averages a record annual payout of $55 million, was unable to finish the game after suffering a right wrist injury in the first half – the No. 1 pick of the 2020 draft grimacing while throwing a 4-yard touchdown pass to Joe Mixon. Burrow was in obvious pain on the sideline afterward while trying to throw the ball and never returned to the playing field.

He didn’t address reporters following the game, slightly struggling to get dressed in the locker room with the wrist wrapped and possibly splinted.

Friday, Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor revealed his superstar is out for the rest of the season with a torn ligament in his wrist.

Bengals players had little to offer in a somber locker room, though some attempted to parrot Taylor’s message that the season is far from over.

“You see backup guys winning games all over the place,” said wide receiver Tyler Boyd.

However fellow wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who also played with Burrow collegiately at LSU, sounded less optimistic.

“Not something I was expecting,” Chase said of Burrow’s departure. “It was just tough seeing that happen.

“I don’t know, it’s part of football – next man up. … New guys gotta step up, we gotta adjust.”

Wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) and defensive end Sam Hubbard (ankle), two more key players for Cincinnati, were inactive Thursday. Top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson played through a hyperextended knee he sustained in Sunday’s loss to the Houston Texans.

Matters were less dire for the Ravens, who will move into position as the AFC’s projected No. 1 seed if the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) lose to the Philadelphia Eagles in Monday night’s Super Bowl 57 rematch. But Baltimore heads into its mini-bye – the Ravens’ next game is on the road November 26 against the Los Angeles Chargers – with serious issues nonetheless.

The overriding one is the health of Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews, who suffered an ankle injury on what looked like a hip-drop tackle from Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson on the opening drive. Andrews, who was seen on crutches afterward in the bowels of the stadium according to Amazon Prime’s broadcast team, is likely out for the remainder of the season.

“It’s very tough,’ said Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who was drafted with Andrews in 2018. “We’ve been bread and butter, peanut butter and jelly – whatever you want to call it. It’s very tough, because that’s my boy. That’s receiver (number) one sometimes.

“He’s been having a remarkable year.”

Long Jackson’s preferred target, Andrews entered Week 11 with a team-high six touchdown catches and was second on the club both with 43 receptions and 521 receiving yards. He caught two balls for 23 yards Thursday prior to being injured.

But that might not be all for Baltimore, which was also without injured Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) and left tackle Ronnie Stanley (knee) against Cincinnati.

Jackson, who missed five games apiece in the 2021 and 2022 regular seasons and didn’t finish either of them – he also didn’t play in last season’s wild-card loss at Cincinnati – was hobbled by an ankle injury. He was taken down near the sideline by Wilson on a third-down incompletion in the first half and wound up in the medical tent but didn’t miss a snap. Jackson seemed to be nursing the ankle on the sideline at various points in the evening, even using a heating pad on it, and occasionally appeared to have trouble with his footing on the field.

Still, he vowed to be ready for the Chargers game.

Baltimore wideout Odell Beckham Jr. also left the game in the fourth quarter, suffering an apparent shoulder injury on yet another tackle involving Wilson. OBJ finished with four catches for 116 yards, his highest total since signing with the Ravens earlier this year.

But the loss of Andrews is clearly going to be an obstacle and took a bit of luster off an otherwise convincing ‘win.’

“To replace a player like Mark Andrews, it’s going to take everybody,” said Ravens coach John Harbaugh. “It’s going to take a team to do it, and our guys will be up for the challenge and up for the task.”

But not as big a task as the Burrow-less Bengals face – along with the AFC North rival Cleveland Browns, who lost quarterback Deshaun Watson to a season-ending shoulder injury.

“Gotta adjust, make changes probably. Or get back in the lab and keeping working,” said Chase, while acknowledging he doesn’t know what modifications will make a difference.

“Can’t turn back now, so we’ve just gotta keep going, marching forward.”

In the war of attrition that is the NFL, that’s really all you can do. But with the Ravens and (especially) Bengals both seemingly diminished Thursday night, it just got that much harder to reach the finish line in Las Vegas next February.

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Biden signs temporary spending bill, pushes budget fight with GOP into 2024

President Biden signed a temporary spending bill that will push the ongoing federal budget battle into the next year.

Biden signed the bill Thursday after it was passed by both the House and Senate this week with bipartisan support.

The spending measure — conceived to avoid a government shutdown — will allow the government to stay open through the holiday season.

While a more long-term solution is debated, the spending measure will maintain current government funding for approximately two months.

House Speaker Mike Johnson championed the spending package, and it passed 336 to 95 — just two Democrats voted against the bill, along with 93 Republicans. 

It also received votes from all but 10 Republicans and one Democrat in the Senate, passing on Wednesday.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., described Wednesday as ‘a very, very good night for the American people’ before announcing a government shutdown had been avoided, which he credited to ‘bipartisan cooperation.’

‘Obviously, the Republican-led House needed Democratic votes to avoid a shutdown, and I was pleased to see that the speaker was willing to work with Democrats and resisted the siren song of the hard right in the House,’ Schumer said to reporters. ‘And if that continues, we can avoid further shutdowns and finish the work of funding the government.’

Left out of the temporary spending measure was wartime aid for embattled U.S. allies Israel and Ukraine.

The White House is requesting approximately $106 billion in aid for the two nations as Israel continues its ground invasion of Gaza and Ukraine continues its war of defense against neighboring Russia.

Biden signed the bill while still in San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

Biden’s team announced the development late Thursday night after the president signed the bill at the Legion of Honor Museum, where he was hosting APEC summit attendees.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Key Trump impeachment figure running for Congress as Democrat

Retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman, a key figure in former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment, is running for an open seat in the House of Representatives. 

Vindman had been a senior ethics lawyer on the National Security Council (NSC) in July 2019 when his brother, fellow NSC official and retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, reported Trump’s now-infamous phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Eugene Vindman alluded to his role in the controversy in a Thursday campaign announcement: ‘Soldiers are trained to run towards fire, no matter the personal cost. That’s why I’m running for Congress – to defend our nation against the clear and present danger of Donald Trump and the 147 Members of Congress who voted to overthrow the will of the American people.’

‘I want America to remain the land of opportunity, a refuge for families like mine, where hard work makes a difference, truth prevails, rights are protected, and we are all free to be who we are and pursue our dreams,’ he said in the statement.

Eugene Vindman is running for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, which is being vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., as she prepares to run for governor. 

‘Abigail Spanberger served our district with integrity and passion, and I hope to follow her example,’ he said. ‘Families are struggling to pay for gas, groceries and housing, while Republicans in Congress fight among themselves. They have no interest in governing. America’s enemies relish in their dysfunction and the divisions they sow.’

He’s the first Democrat to jump into the race, which is expected to be among the most closely watched House elections of the 2024 cycle. The district went to President Biden in 2020, but before that, Spanberger clinched it by unseating a Republican incumbent. 

Eugene Vindman launched his bid just as the former president is seeking to reclaim the White House for a second term.

He said that he and his twin brother were key to kicking off Trump’s impeachment over accusations of trying to get a foreign power to influence the 2020 election and obstructing Congress’ subsequent probe into the matter.

Alexander Vindman had testified during a 2019 congressional hearing about Trump’s phone call with Zelenskyy, in which Trump pressed Zelenskyy to launch investigations into the Biden family’s actions and business dealings in Ukraine.

Both brothers were dismissed from the NSC shortly after Trump was acquitted.

A May 2022 report by the Pentagon’s inspector general found that Eugene Vindman likely faced retaliation from his superiors after raising alarms about Trump with his brother.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Biden camp weighs joining TikTok to sway young voters months after purging app from federal devices: report

President Biden’s re-election campaign is reportedly weighing privately whether to join the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok.

Axios first reported on Friday that Biden’s team was considering using the platform, owned by the Chinese company ByteDance, though a spokesman for the president’s re-election downplayed the story.

The president’s talks about potentially joining TikTok come after his administration banned the app from being used on federal devices earlier this year.

The Biden administration set a 30-day deadline in late February for government agencies to purge the app from federal devices.

The Chinese-owned social media platform is incredibly popular among younger Americans. Biden has joined forces with TikTok influencers amid his re-election run, and the Democratic National Committee itself joined the platform.

However, the president’s campaign joining the Beijing-based social media platform could present unique security risks for Biden.

Most notably, the Chinese Communist Party’s cybersecurity law allows government authorities to access companies’ data.

Many Republicans resist using TikTok due to data security concerns, while an increasing number of Democrats, notably those with aspirations for higher office, have adopted the platform.

The Biden campaign pointed to a social media post published by spokesperson TJ Ducklo, who appeared to confirm that the campaign had at least discussed the possibility. Responding to the report on X, Ducklo wrote, ‘[laugh out loud] this is not a scoop.’

‘Campaigns talk about a bunch of stuff and some we do and a bunch we don’t,’ Ducklo wrote. 

‘If we have news to share we’ll let yall know!’ Ducklo added.

Parents Defending Education founder and president Nikki Neily connected the story to a recent revival of a terrorist’s defense of 9/11.

‘Two days ago: Young people on TikTok are proudly spreading Osama Bin Laden’s infamous ‘Letter to America’ that blames America for 9/11 and calls for the destruction of Israel,’ Neily wrote.

‘Today: Biden campaign is considering joining TikTok to ‘reach more young voters,’’ she continued, sharing screenshots of a pair of posts.

TikTok said it will remove videos promoting bin Laden’s infamous pro-terrorism ‘Letter to America,’ citing violations of its rules on supporting any form of terrorism.

The anti-American and antisemitic letter went viral this week after being unearthed by social media users, prompting Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., to call for a ban on TikTok. 

‘Content promoting this letter clearly violates our rules on supporting any form of terrorism. We are proactively and aggressively removing this content and investigating how it got onto our platform,’ a TikTok spokesperson told Fox News Digital. 

The spokesperson also said ‘the number of videos on TikTok is small and reports of it trending on our platform are inaccurate.’

FOX Business’ Brian Flood and Joseph Wulfohn contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Argentina election showdown as libertarian outsider looks to take down establishment candidate

BUENOS AIRES – Argentina, the majestic name conjures up images of sizzling steaks, velvety red wine, the sprawling wheat-laden Pampas and towering Aconcagua, the highest mountain in the Americas. The nation is riding high on the glory of Messi and last year’s victory in the World Cup, its first since 1986.

Yet, it is another Argentinian, one arguably more famous than even the great Lionel Messi, whose life and legacy could leave a resounding impact on a tense presidential election unfolding this weekend, more than seven decades after her death. 

The Peronist economic legacy

Evita Peron, ‘the voice of Argentina,’ and her husband, Juan Domingo Peron, ruled the country with an iron fist, summoning legions of poor and working-class Argentinians to take the country by storm on command. The ‘descamisados,’ translated to ‘shirtless ones,’ were Spanish and Italian immigrants who arrived by the millions to the land of opportunity at the beginning of the 20th century.

To their supporters, the Perons were heroes who raised the standard of living for Argentinian workers and nationalized the economy to the benefit of the masses and to the detriment of British and American investors. To their detractors, they were dictatorial demagogues who jailed political opponents, cracked down on freedom of speech and the press, and lived to attack the middle class and the dreaded ‘oligarchy’ they held responsible for all the nation’s ills.

What is certain is that many of Argentina’s serious and persistent economic problems stem from the decisions made, and the ideology promoted under the Peron administration: chiefly massive spending initiatives, wage and price controls, and nationalizations and expropriations, leading to massive distortions in the economy, and runaway inflation.

Sergio Massa and Javier Milei offer stark ideological contrast

Today, establishment candidate Sergio Massa and iconoclastic libertarian economist Javier Milei are about as diametrically opposed on politics and policy as could be imagined.

Massa, the current economy minister, is a smooth and affable chameleon-like figure with a three-decades-long career in politics. Originally part of a line of dissident Peronistas, he ran for president as an independent Peronist candidate in 2015, placing third with 19.5% of the vote.

Cristina Kirchner: Today’s Peronist incarnation, and Massa’s champion

Today, he counts on the critical backing of Cristina Kirchner, the Peronist Party and its massive political machinery. Walking the streets of downtown Buenos Aires, the bloated bureaucratic state of Argentina is on full display, working overtime to push Massa over the finish line. Every metro station, every building, every billboard, it seems, heralds Massa, proclaiming his slogan, ‘the Argentina that we’ve been waiting for is coming.’

Such a slogan might beg the question, ‘why isn’t it already here?’ Furthermore, how does the current minister of economy currently count on the support of half of the nation in the polls with 40% of Argentinians living in poverty and inflation exceeding 140%?

Milei’s Pledge: Strangle the bureaucratic state, shut the central bank, and dollarize the economy

Enter libertarian economist Javier Milei, a current congressman who represents the greatest threat in a generation to the nation’s political establishment. With a chainsaw in hand, Milei has pledged a relentless campaign against the ‘useless’ and ‘parasitic’ bureaucratic class, which he alleges is choking the life out of the Argentine economy and causing a repetitive inflation death spiral.

The foundation of his campaign rests on two promises: he will close the Argentine Central Bank, and he will dollarize the economy. 

Often incorrectly described as ‘extreme right’ or ‘populist,’ Milei is, in fact, a devout libertarian who is particularly inclined to the Austrian school of economics. 

Massa: Establishment candidate with standard ‘red meat’ populist proposals

Massa, seeking to play the role of sensible moderate and seasoned hand, offers a more conventional ‘meat and potatoes’ approach to governance, under the banner ‘Medidas para mejorar tu Vida’ or ‘Measures to improve your life.’ He pledges to cut a variety of taxes while also providing sizable payments and subsidies to Argentinian workers.

It sounds great, and it may poll well, but it may not be feasible. Argentina’s fiscal house is on life support, and it remains unable to access foreign credit markets. Additionally, its foreign reserves are rapidly depleting.

Massa defeated Milei in the first round, winning 9.9 million votes, or 36.8%, to Milei’s 8 million votes, or 30%.

The race is currently locked in a statistical tie, with most recent polls giving a slight edge to Milei. The average of the last five major polls shows Milei with 47.5% over Massa with 45.2%. However, polls in the first round generally overestimated Milei’s support, while underestimating Massa’s.

If Milei pulls off a win, he will owe a debt to the quick endorsements of Patricia Bullrich and former president Mauricio Macri, who quickly coalesced around Milei following Bullrich’s third place performance in the first round.

Milei’s fate now rests in the hands of the 23.8% of Argentinians who voted for former Bullrich in the first round, and to a lesser extent, the 6.7% of Argentinians who voted for centrist Juan Schiaretti, the governor of Cordoba. Recent polls have shown that roughly 70-75% of Bullrich voters plan to back Massa in the second round, while Schiaretti voters are split right down the middle.

Final electoral math

Combining Milei’s 30% in the first round, with roughly 18% (from three-quarters of Bullrich voters), and an additional 3.4% from Schiaretti, would put Milei at just over 51%.

Sergio Massa, on the other hand, needs to count on record-setting turnout in Peronist strongholds in Buenos Aires city and province (which together constitute 45% of the Argentine electorate), and make an outside appeal to the small but appreciable segment of Bullrich voters who are alienated by Milei’s temperament, and may be persuaded to grudgingly back Massa as a protest vote, or merely stay home.

It will likely be the closest, and arguably the most consequential, election in a generation.

For Sunday’s Nov. 19 election, polls will open at 8 a.m. local time and close at 6 p.m. local time (6 a.m. and 4 p.m. EST).

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Recap and Action Plan: Small Caps, Beans, Oil

Since we came back from vacation, I’ve written 3 Dailys. The first of these was on the Economic Modern Family and how it opened its loving arms to the bulls.

I was particularly keen on small caps or the Russell 2000 (IWM). I wrote, “Beginning with Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM), Monday began with a gap up over the 50-DMA (blue). We will watch for a phase change confirmation. Furthermore, the monthly chart shows IWM back above the 80-month MA (green). Resistance at 191 area is on tap if IWM holds above 174.”

Phase change? YES.Holding 174? YES.Still above the 80-month MA? YES.191 on tap if continues to hold? YES.

Next, I wrote a Daily about Soybeans as the next potential parabolic runner.

“Meanwhile, the Teucrium Soybean Fund SOYB saw a huge influx of investor money. The monthly chart featured shows prices hovering around all-time highs. In 2012 the high was 28.88. In July this year, SOYB made a new high at 29.43. The sideways consolidation on this monthly chart suggests a move to 34-35 is possible.”

The daily chart is in a bullish phase? YES.

The futures contract here, shown through the continuous contract and not the January 2024 contract, looks different. The continuous contract is under the 23-month MA, while the futures contract of the ETF sits above the 23-month.

Sideways consolidation? YES.Ready to run? NOT YET. (But watch for a move over 1400 in January 2024 contract as a good start provided this holds 1250.)

The next Daily this week was titled Oil the New Gold — Buy When There’s Blood in the Streets. The thesis was that oil is a buy just as everyone got bearish. Just like gold, “you buy it when it looks awful, and sell it when it looks strong.”

The futures contract (December) shows you that $72 held Friday, with a move to nearly $76.

Was it a buy with blood in the streets? YES.Do we have a support level now? YES.

If you have a listen of my 2 latest videos in the media section below, you will hear that I boldly called a bottom and describe what levels must clear from here.

This coming week, watch for oil to get over $76 to continue the rally.

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com, our Head of Institutional Sales. Cell: 612-518-2482.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

Traders World Fintech Awards

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth.

Grow your wealth today and plant your money tree!

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

In this appearance on BNN Bloomberg, Mish covers the emotional state of oil and gold, plus talks why small caps are the key right now. She also presents a couple of picks!

Learn how to trade commodities better with Mish in this interview with CNBC Asia!

Mish and Charles Payne discuss why the small caps, now in mid range still have a chance to rally in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Mish talks about Tencent Music Entertainment on Business First AM.

Mish talks bonds with Charles Payne in this clip from October 27, recorded live in-studio at Fox Business.

Live in-studio at Yahoo! Finance on October 26, Mish does a chart deep dive with Jared Blikre.

Mish talks 401(k)s at the NYSE in this October 26 video from Cheddar TV.

Mish covers the bond rally and how consumers could save the day in this October 24 video from Business First AM.

Coming Up:

November 20: Yahoo! Finance & Real Vision

November 28: Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV

November 30: Live Coaching

December 3-December 13: Money Show Webinar-at-Sea

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 450 clears see 465. Under 450, 435 support.Russell 2000 (IWM): 181 resistance, 174 support.Dow (DIA): 360 resistance, 346 support.Nasdaq (QQQ): 388 must clear and 370 must hold.Regional Banks (KRE): 45 big resistance.Semiconductors (SMH): 160-161 pivotal support.Transportation (IYT): 235 support.Biotechnology (IBB): 120 pivotal.Retail (XRT): 65 resistance and 60 pivotal support.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

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MEM TV: Easy Way To Uncover Best Candidates for These Markets

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reveals areas of the market that are reversing lengthy downtrends and the best way to participate. She also highlights where the strength is in the markets as the uptrend remains firmly in place.

This video originally premiered November 17, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The MEM Edge premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link. You can also receive a 4-week free trial of her MEM Edge Report by clicking the image below.

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The Bull Has Left the Bear in the Dust: It’s Time To Add Small Caps To Your Portfolio

The Fed is done raising interest rates. At least, that’s what the stock market has priced in, based on recent inflation data. We’ve also seen an uptrend in weekly jobless claims and signs that suggest that consumer spending may be slowing down.

A slowdown, or soft landing, is something most investors would prefer to see—stability vs. uncertainty. And it looks like the US economy is heading in that direction. Although consumer spending may slow down, household wealth is still healthy, preventing the economy from heading into a recession. The stock market is on track for a third positive weekly win streak.

Investor enthusiasm spiked when the CPI data came in unchanged. The softer PPI helped eke out more of a rally in the broader indexes, although at a much more muted level. Overall, the week ended on a positive note.

While the highlight of the recent rally saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite stocks draw a lot of attention, the Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn’t too shabby. On a monthly basis, the Dow, like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, is trading above its 50-month moving average.

CHART 1: MONTHLY CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. The index is trading above its 50-month moving average (red line). So far, November has been a strong month for the index. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

On a weekly scale, the Dow, with the exception of the 2022 dip, has been trending within a slightly upward-sloping price channel. A break above the channel would pave the way for a Dow Jones Industrial Average all-time high. Note that the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) has crossed above the 100-week SMA.

CHART 2: WEEKLY CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. A break above the upward-sloping channel would be very positive for the index. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows the index trading above its 100-day SMA (see below). This moving average could be a support level on the downside. Looking at the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average today, you won’t see much resistance between now and the Dow’s all-time high.

CHART 3: DAILY CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. It’s a clear path to the index’s all-time high. If the bullish sentiment remains strong, we could see the broader index reach new highs in 2023. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Are Small Cap Stocks Catching Up to the Large Caps?

Another area to focus on as the year comes to an end is small-cap stocks. This asset group has struggled to catch up with the large-cap stocks, but small-caps could be making a comeback.

CHART 4: S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX. Small caps are showing signs of life in their value and breadth. The percentage of S&P 600 stocks above their 50-day moving average is at 65.7%, Advance-Decline percent is at 62%, and Volume Advance-Decline Percent is at 51.5%. These are all indications of improving market breadth. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In a recent episode of The Final Bar, our chief market strategist, David Keller, CMT, spoke with Craig Johnson, CFA, CMT, who made an interesting case for small-cap performance for the last few months of 2023. Be sure to check out the episode.

Small caps could also be less influenced by news that sends large-cap stocks into big swings. Look at how a large-cap stock such as Microsoft (MSFT) fell after Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, exited the company.

In addition to small caps, the Invesco S&P Equal Weighted Index ETF (RSP) is showing signs of trending higher,  as are Materials and Industrials. If these areas show signs of a clear uptrend, we can kiss the bear goodbye. And with the bear out of the way, there will be one less thing to worry about as we approach the holiday season.

Retail Sector Sending Mixed Messages

As the holiday shopping season starts, investors may want to focus on retail shares. Shares of clothing retailer Gap, Inc. (GPS) gapped higher after reporting better-than-expected earnings. This news helped other retailers, such as Ross Stores (ROST), the largest percentage gainer in the S&P 500.

Earlier this week, Target (TGT) announced strong earnings, which sent its stock price higher. This was refreshing, especially after the stock’s steep downfall. Walmart (WMT), however, was a different story. Even though its earnings were strong, the retailer mentioned that consumer spending is slowing down, which could impact its bottom line next quarter. WMT stock price gapped significantly lower after its earnings report and is now trading close to its October low.

A slowdown in spending doesn’t mean consumers will stop spending. The economy is still healthy, and overall, we may be in for a bull rally from now to the end of the year.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

US equity indexes up; volatility down

$SPX up 0.13% at 4514, $INDU up 0.01% at 34947; $COMPQ up 0.08% at 14125$VIX down 3.63% at 13.80Best performing sector for the week: Real EstateWorst performing sector for the week: Consumer StaplesTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Vertiv Holdings, LLC (VRT); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); DraftKings, Inc. (DKNG), PDD Holdings (PDD); New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. (EDU)

On the Radar Next Week

NVIDA earningsOctober existing home salesOctober durable goods ordersNovember PMI

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Cutting-Edge Seasonality Insights & Bitcoin 2024 Halving Impact

In this special edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, guest Adrien Zduńczyk, CMT, of The Birb Nest shares a groundbreaking seasonality study he created with Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac. Adrien and Dave explain how November and December tend to be seasonably strong for Bitcoin, why Bitcoin’s halving in 2024 could be an upside catalyst for cryptos, and how Bitcoin compares to other risk assets using correlation analysis.

This video originally premiered on November 17, 2023. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon LIVE at 4pm ET. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

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Californians Caused Late October Dip (and Rebound)

The stock market in 2023 has been tracking the Annual Seasonal Pattern (ASP) really closely — until a late October 2023 extra dip in stock prices that was not on the ASP’s program, that is. Since that dip, stock prices have been rallying hard to get back on track. But why did that dip happen?

Blame Californians. I wrote here back on July 21, 2023 about how the IRS had changed the tax filing and payment deadlines for most of California, because of flooding rains in January on previously burned areas that led to a lot of flooding. This led to disaster declarations, and a ruling by the IRS that taxpayers in 51 of California’s 54 counties would get an extension to October 16, 2023 for filing their 2022 taxes. That extension also included a delay in having to pay any amounts owed for 2022, plus all quarterly estimated payments in 2023.

Because of this extension, smart Californians held onto their money and their tax returns until just before the deadline, presumably earning at least money market interest rates on it, but denying those tax dollars to Uncle Sam. California has 15% of the US population, but it also has more than its share of millionaires who have the wherewithal (and the accountants) to do this sort of tax planning.

Why this relates to the stock market is that, as we have learned from the Fed’s QE and QT episodes, having money in the banks is helpful for boosting stock prices. But when a bunch of Californians all wrote their tax payment checks to the IRS in October, that created a sudden drain in the liquidity pool. The result was an extra dip that the Annual Seasonal Pattern did not forecast.

Once those checks got cashed by the IRS, the money eventually found its way back into the banking system, resulting in a recovery for deposits in the commercial banks. And that helped to feed a recovery in the stock market, allowing prices to get back on track with the bullish phase of the Annual Seasonal Pattern.

We can see the effect of this in the tax collections data themselves, which are published in the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Much of 2023’s monthly tax receipts data have been running behind 2022 levels. Part of that was due to 2022 being a down year for the stock market, so there were not as many capital gains to have to pay taxes on, and 2021 had a lot of capital gains tax payments because 2021 was a nice strong up year for the stock market.

We can see in this chart how the tax collections for October 2023 were much higher than past Octobers, which is where that extension for California filers can really be seen. The Treasury Department and White House officials were quick to attribute October’s strong tax collections to a supposedly improving economy, but it was really just a bunch of Californians taking advantage of the extension that was offered to them.

One positive for stock market investors is that even with October’s more robust tax receipts, the U.S. government’s total tax receipts are still pretty low as a percentage of GDP, and that is very bullish.

When taxes are running at 16% of GDP or less, the months that follow are historically very bullish for stock prices. By the same token, getting taxes up above 18% of GDP has brought an economic recession (and a bear market) every time it has happened. The mechanism for this is that, by leaving a lot more money in the economy, the government is helping to allow that money to do things like lift stock prices. It is a bit of a problem for the escalating level of total federal debt, but that is a different problem.

Now that the California tax extension issue is behind us, the stock market can get back on the task of pushing itself higher, as it usually does in November and December.

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