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Donald Trump Jr. said Monday he would go to ‘great lengths’ to prevent GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley from joining his father’s campaign.

Trump Jr. said during a Christmas Day interview that he views Haley as the ‘preferred candidate’ of the Washington establishment.

‘I wouldn’t have her on, and I would go to great lengths to make sure that that doesn’t happen,’ Trump Jr. said on Newsmax’s ‘The Balance.’

‘Nikki Haley wants never-ending wars,’ he continued. ‘She’s a puppet of the establishment in Washington D.C. She’s the new favorite candidate of the billionaire class, because they want control — no different than academia at Harvard and using, you know, their billions to exercising influence. They want someone they control. Ron DeSantis has proven that he doesn’t have what it takes to be on that stage. He’s embarrassed himself that way. She’s now the preferred candidate.’

Trump Jr. suggested Haley would try to sabotage Trump’s campaign ‘from within’ if she was chosen as his running mate.

‘No, I would not want Nikki Haley to be there,’ he added. ‘By the way, all you’d get is her and team trying to destroy Donald Trump from within, forever. The second she ever got that, you know, anointment, it would be a disaster of epic proportions. So, I would hope that never is on the table, and I don’t think it is.’

Trump Jr.’s comments came after Haley said she didn’t want the former president in the White House again, arguing that he would only bring ‘chaos’ to the country.

‘Our world is on fire,’ she said during a recent post-debate interview. ‘And you can’t defeat Democrat chaos with Republican chaos, and Donald Trump brings us chaos. So it’s not about being fit, it’s just I don’t think he’s the right person to be president.’

Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, previously told Newsmax that she wouldn’t rule out Trump choosing Haley as his running mate.

‘Crazier things have happened,’ she said. ‘I don’t know. I would never say never with Donald J. Trump. Never say never.’

Fox News Digital has reached out to the Haley campaign for a response to Trump Jr.’s comments.

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Federal prosecutors opposed New Jersey Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez and his co-defendants’ request for a two-month delay to their bribery trial, set for May, urging a U.S. judge to reject their plea on Tuesday.

‘The current schedule set by the court is expedited, but reasonable,’ Damian Wiliams, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, wrote to U.S. District Judge Sidney Stein. ‘Nothing in the defendant’s request for an adjournment, made more than two months after the schedule was set, justifies a material deviation from this considered schedule.’

Last week, Menendez’s defense lawyers argued they didn’t have enough time to sift through some 6.7 million documents in time for a May trial date and cited the ‘complexity of this case.’ But prosecutors asserted they had completed ‘good-faith efforts to facilitate the defense’s efficient review.’

‘The government has taken great pains to organize the discovery and to assist counsel’s review of it,’ the prosecutors’ filing read. 

‘Other assertions regarding the amount of time they allegedly need – such as their desire to take unspecified investigative steps, their plan to file a challenge to the sufficiency of the indictment, their desire to mount a constitutional challenge to a federal criminal statute, and their plan to file suppression motions – are not unique to this case and do not justify a multiple-month adjournment,’ it continued. 

Menendez, along with his wife Nadine and three New Jersey businessmen – Wael Hana, Jose Uribe and Fred Daibes – were first charged in the federal bribery scheme on Sept. 23. 

FBI and IRS criminal investigators allege that Menendez and his wife accepted several gold bars and other gifts from Daibes, a New Jersey developer and former bank chairman accused of banking crimes. Menendez allegedly worked to help appoint a prosecutor who would be sympathetic to Daibes, according to the indictment.

The unsealed indictment alleges that from at least 2018 through 2022, Menendez and his wife ‘engaged in a corrupt relationship’ with Daibes, Hana and Uribe.

The couple is accused of accepting ‘hundreds of thousands of dollars of bribes in exchange for using Menendez’s power and influence as a senator to seek to protect and enrich Hana, Uribe, and Daibes and to benefit the Arab Republic of Egypt.’

The alleged bribes included cash, gold bars, payments toward a home mortgage, compensation for a low- or no-show job, a luxury vehicle, and ‘other things of value.’ After the investigation was underway, Menendez reportedly disclosed that his family had accepted gold bars in 2020.

According to prosecutors, Menendez allegedly shared confidential U.S. government information with Hana, an Egyptian American businessman, to clandestinely support the Egyptian government. The indictment contends that Menendez exerted inappropriate pressure on a Department of Agriculture official to safeguard Hana’s business monopoly granted by Egypt. In return, Hana purportedly funneled profits from his monopoly back to Menendez.

Menendez faces additional charges of acting as a foreign agent and accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars of bribes to benefit the Egyptian government through his ‘power and influence as a Senator,’ according to the superseding indictment filed by a grand jury in Manhattan in October.

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Special Counsel Jack Smith has filed another motion with the district court, which seeks to tamp down what former President Donald Trump’s legal team can tell a jury in his federal trial currently scheduled for March.

The motion, filed Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, is seeking to limit what statements Trump can make leading up to his scheduled March 4 federal trial on alleged 2020 election interference. 

That includes a request to prevent Trump from telling the jury he is being prosecuted by the DOJ in coordination with President Biden, as well as suggestions by Trump of undercover agents fomenting violence at the Capitol riots, and of ‘foreign influence’ in the 2020 election.

‘Through public statements, filings, and argument in hearings before the Court, the defense has attempted to inject into this case partisan political attacks and irrelevant and prejudicial issues that have no place in a jury trial,’ Smith’s team told U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan.

‘Although the Court can recognize these efforts for what they are and disregard them, the jury — if subjected to them — may not. The Court should not permit the defendant to turn the courtroom into a forum in which he propagates irrelevant disinformation, and should reject his attempt to inject politics into this proceeding. To ensure that the jury remains focused on its fact-finding duty and applies the law as instructed by the Court, the defendant’s improper evidence and argument should be excluded.’

The filing claims that ‘through his groundless demand for discovery of evidence regarding ‘investigative misconduct,’’ Trump ‘has suggested that he intends to impeach the integrity of the investigation by raising wholly false claims such as the Government’s non-existent ‘coordination with the Biden Administration’ and other empty allegations recycled from the selective and vindictive prosecution motion that he based on anonymous sources in newspaper articles.

‘Although the defendant is entitled to cross-examine the Government’s law enforcement witnesses about matters fairly within the scope of their direct testimony, he cannot raise wholly irrelevant topics in an effort to confuse and distract the jury. Much as the defendant would like it otherwise, this trial should be about the facts and the law, not politics.’

The motion seeks to prevent Trump from telling jurors about the potential punishment he could face if convicted, as well as blaming law enforcement agencies for a lack of preparation in advance of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

‘Evidence about undercover actors holds no probative value here,’ Smith’s team wrote in the filing regarding the riot, saying the ‘defendant also appears poised to blame undercover agents, government informants, or confidential human sources (collectively, ‘undercover actors’) for the violence at the Capitol on January 6.’

Fox News Digital reached out to the Trump campaign for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

The motion to preclude Trump from introducing broad categories of arguments is a way for prosecutors to try to set parameters on what information they believe the jury should, or should not, hear when the case reaches trial. It was filed as the case is effectively on hold during an appeal of the former president’s claims that he is immune from prosecution for acts taken while in the White House.

‘A bank robber cannot defend himself by blaming the bank’s security guard for failing to stop him,’ prosecutors wrote. ‘A fraud defendant cannot claim to the jury that his victims should have known better than to fall for his scheme. And the defendant cannot argue that law enforcement should have prevented the violence he caused and obstruction he intended.’

The Supreme Court declined last week to get involved in the dispute for now, but a federal appeals panel is set to hear arguments on the matter on Jan. 9. The trial is scheduled for March 4 in federal court in Washington, D.C., but it could be postponed by appeals of the immunity issue.

Chutkan imposed a partial gag order against Trump in October blocking him from making statements targeting Smith, his staff, potential witnesses and court personnel.

Chutkan said the former president is able to criticize the Justice Department in general terms and has the right to post his view that the case against him is politically motivated. However, the judge said Trump cannot post attacks against prosecutors or court staff.

A federal appeals court upheld key parts of that gag order in December.

‘An Appeals Court has just largely upheld the Gag Order against me in the ridiculous J6 Case, where the Unselect January 6th Committee deleted and destroyed almost all Documents and Evidence, saying that I can be barred from talking and, in effect, telling the truth,’ Trump posted on Truth Social after that ruling. 

‘In other words, people can speak violently and viciously against me, or attack me in any form, but I am not allowed to respond, in kind. What is becoming of our First Amendment, what is becoming of our Country? We will appeal this decision!’

Trump pleaded not guilty in federal court to all four federal charges stemming from Smith’s investigation into 2020 election interference and the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.

The judge presiding over the New York Trump Organization trial also imposed a partial gag order to prevent all parties from engaging in any verbal attacks against court staff after Trump criticized a member of the judge’s office on social media.

An appeals court stay was temporarily issued on the New York gag order, but it was reinstated in November.

‘Merry Christmas to all, including Crooked Joe Biden’s ONLY HOPE, Deranged Jack Smith, the out of control Lunatic who just hired outside attorneys, fresh from the SWAMP (unprecedented!), to help him with his poorly executed WITCH HUNT against ‘TRUMP’ and ‘MAGA,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Christmas Day.

Fox News Digital’s Brooke Singman and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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FIRST ON FOX: House Republicans are investigating whether President Biden was involved in his son Hunter Biden’s ‘scheme’ to defy his subpoena for deposition earlier this month — conduct, they say, ‘could constitute an impeachable offense.’ 

The House Oversight Committee, House Judiciary Committee and House Ways & Means Committee are investigating ‘whether sufficient grounds exist to draft articles of impeachment against President Biden for consideration by the full House.’ The House formalized the inquiry earlier this month. 

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, on Wednesday penned a letter, obtained by Fox News Digital, to White House Counsel Edward Siskel, notifying him of the additional area of their investigation. 

‘In light of an official statement from the White House that President Biden was aware in advance that his son, Hunter Biden, would knowingly defy two congressional subpoenas, we are compelled to examine as part of our impeachment inquiry whether the President engaged in a conspiracy to obstruct a proceeding of Congress,’ Comer and Jordan wrote to Siskel. 

The subpoenas were both for Hunter Biden’s deposition — one from Comer and one from Jordan. The two chairmen planned to hold the deposition in the same room, at the same time. 

The president’s son was subpoenaed to appear for a deposition before the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees earlier this month. Hunter Biden defied that subpoena, and instead, appeared on Capitol Hill and delivered a public statement before the press.

‘On December 13, Mr. Biden did not appear for the deposition as required by the Committees’ subpoenas. Instead, Mr. Biden appeared on the grounds of the U.S. Capitol with his attorney and Representative Eric Swalwell,’ they wrote. ‘Mr. Biden gave a lengthy public statement to an assembly of reporters in which he made several statements that are relevant to the House’s impeachment inquiry, including representations about his business activities, assertions about President Biden’s awareness and ‘financial’ involvement in these activities, and attacks on the Committees’ inquiry.’ 

Hunter Biden ‘indicated that he would only testify in a public forum, a demand for special treatment that the Committees had previously rejected.’ 

‘Although Mr. Biden professed an interest in answering questions about his actions, he departed the Capitol grounds without taking any questions. The committees subsequently recorded Mr. Biden’s non-appearance at his deposition,’ they wrote. 

But later that day, Comer and Jordan pointed to a statement made by White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. She was asked whether the president had watched his son’s public statement. 

‘White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that President Biden was ‘certainly familiar with what his son was going to say,’’ they wrote. ‘Ms. Jean-Pierre declined, however, to provide any further details about the President’s actions on whether the President approved of his son defying congressional subpoenas.’ 

They added, though, that Jean-Pierre’s statement ‘suggests the President had some amount of advanced knowledge that Mr. Biden would choose to defy two congressional subpoenas.’ 

The chairmen pointed to the criminal code, citing the section which states that it is unlawful to ‘corruptly…endeavor to influence, obstruct, or impede the due and proper exercise of the power of inquiry under which any investigation or inquiry is being had by…any committee of either House or any joint committee of Congress.’ 

‘Likewise, any person who ‘aids, abets, counsels, commands, induces or procures’ the commission of a crime is punishable as a principal of the crime,’ they wrote. 

‘In light of Ms. Jean-Pierre’s statement, we are compelled to examine the involvement of the President in his son’s scheme to defy the Committees’ subpoenas,’ they wrote. ‘The Committees have accumulated substantial evidence that Hunter Biden’s business endeavors have improperly included his father, and the President has made false claims about his knowledge and involvement in these schemes.’ 

Comer and Jordan also said that just days before Hunter Biden was scheduled to appear for his deposition, the president ‘claimed he had not interacted with any of his son’s business partners.’ 

‘This is false,’ they wrote. ‘The President has met with, spoken to, and received money sourced from his son’s foreign business partners.’ 

Comer and Jordan said that in light of the evidence they have collected, ‘the fact that the President had advanced awareness’ that his son would defy the subpoenas ‘raises a troubling new question that we must examine: whether the President corruptly sought to influence or obstruct the Committee’s proceeding by preventing, discouraging, or dissuading his son from complying with the Committee’s subpoenas.’ 

‘Such conduct could constitute an impeachable offense,’ they wrote.  

The chairmen demanded all documents and communications sent or received by the White House regarding Hunter Biden’s deposition, including communications with Hunter Biden, law firm Winston & Strawn LLP, and Kevin Morris. 

They also demanded all documents and communications sent or received by employees of the White House Executive Office regarding the president’s statement about his family’s business associates on Dec. 6. 

Comer and Jordan gave Siskel until Jan. 10 to produce the information. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

According to Wikipedia,

“Self-help or self-improvement is a self-directed improvement of oneself—economically, physically, intellectually, or emotionally—often with a substantial psychological basis.”

In the Outlook 2024, I quote Raymond Lo yet again,

“The Dragon is considered a ‘Star of Arts.’ The industries that will perform better in the Year of the Dragon will be related to the Metal and Wood elements. Metal industries are beauty and skin care; wood industries are media, fashion….”

This got me thinking about the consumer and the habits of 2023 and how they could continue or change in 2024.

With disposable income still quite high, consumers who spent the last half of 2023 in YOLO or revenge spending go into vanity mode in 2024.

Fashion, beauty, skincare, elective surgeries, self-help, diet drugs, and maybe dating stocks do well.

Think of it as a switch from all about my family and fun for them to all about me and feeling good about myself!

 On our list of stocks to watch for skin care, beauty, and fashion:

1.  Coty, Inc. (COTY)

2.  Estee Lauder (EL)

3.  e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)

4.  Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

5.  Inter Parfums (IPAR)

6.  Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS)

7.  Polo Ralph Lauren (RL)

8.  TJX Cos. (TJX)

9.  VF Corp (VFC)

Plus, PVH Corp. (PVH) and Tapestry, Inc. (TPR).

For cosmetic surgery we are watching

1.  Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH)

2.  Allergan, now part of AbbVie (ABBV). Allergan is known for products like Botox, Juvederm, and CoolSculpting

For diet drugs

1.  Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Other areas to watch

1.  Peloton (PTON)

2.  Match Group (MTCH) and Bumble, Inc. (BMBL)

 

Get your free copy of the Outlook 2024 and stay in the loop!

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at Benny@MGAMLLC.com, our Head of Institutional Sales. Cell: 612-518-2482.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth.

Grow your wealth today and plant your money tree!

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Follow Mish on X @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish and team look at 2023 and make several predictions on commodities and trends for 2024 and vanity stocks in Benzinga Pre Market Prep.

Mish discusses gold, silver and why self care and “all about me” can trend in 2024 in this video from Yahoo! Finance.

Coming Up:

December 27: TheStreet.com

December 28: Singapore Breakfast Radio

January 2: The Final Bar with David Keller, StockCharts TV

January 5: Daily Briefing, Real Vision

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 480 all-time highs, 465 underlying support.Russell 2000 (IWM): 200 pivotal.Dow (DIA): Needs to hold 370.Nasdaq (QQQ): 410 pivotal.Regional Banks (KRE): 47 support, 55 resistance.Semiconductors (SMH): 174 pivotal support to hold this month.Transportation (IYT): Needs to hold 250.Biotechnology (IBB): 130 pivotal support.Retail (XRT): The longer this stays over 70.00, the better!

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Santa Claus might have had a lot of presents to deliver this holiday season but whatever burst of activity happened leading up to the last few weeks, it wasn’t enough to help FedEx (FDX) meet Wall Street’s expectations. Suppressed demand resulting in a huge earnings miss and muted full-year sales outlook all contributed to its dramatic 12% drop last week.

Suppressed demand may have weakened FedEx’s performance, but on a macroeconomic scale, it’s an extremely difficult thing to try to predict. But from a technical analysis perspective, you can at least see where the inflection points might be, even if the fundamental picture remains too foggy to look ahead.

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FEDEX (FDX). Note FedEx’s muted performance against the broader market and the Industrial sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

FDX fell sharply last week, just 6% shy of its all-time high of $304.36. Having entered overbought territory last summer, the latest drop brought FedEx’s relative strength index (RSI) reading down to 50. Technically, it has some upside room to run, which is somewhat promising, considering that FedEx’s longer-term uptrend is still intact. It would have to close below $223.62, its October swing low, before its uptrend may be invalid. 

Plus, looking at FedEx as a bellwether for global economic trade, its price action relative to the S&P 500 ($SPX) and the Industrial Sector (XLI) demonstrates muted yet recovering performance. Looking at the charts, you can see the effects of suppressed demand followed by a modest recovery.

On a more near-term scale, what does its price action indicate?

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF FDX STOCK. There are many key levels surrounding FedEx’s price action based on the stochastic oscillator and volume-by-price bars. It provides a context to anticipate the stock’s longer-term trajectory. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stock price is hovering between $250 and $255. Last week, its downward gap found support right above its 200-day SMA. The stochastic oscillator, now well below the 20 line, is deep in oversold territory.

If FedEx gathers enough strength to rally, note the blue dotted line above $260. You’re not looking at the series of highs from July to September but at the blue line which, marks the higher part of the volume by price bar and sits near the middle of the price gap which, in many cases, tends to get filled. The volume by price bar shows the tremendous selling that took place at this price, making it a strong resistance area to watch. 

Conversely, the same can be said of the blue bar below the price. This level coincides with the November low, the highs in March through May (resistance turned support?), and another notable volume by price level, all indicating a potential support range. If price breaks below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the $225 range will likely provide ample support.

The Bottom Line

We may not be able to predict how the macroeconomic winds will blow in the next quarter, at least with regard to global deliveries. But the market’s early guesses can be detected and possibly anticipated by watching these key levels. In other words, keep an eye on price within this general context. One effective way would be to set price alerts at these key levels.

How To Set a Technical Price Alert

Setting a technical alert at these support and resistance levels would be helpful as you weigh your potential entry points against any market developments that may influence your decision. 

To access the Technical Alert Workbench, follow these steps:

Log in to your account.At the top of any page, click on “Your Dashboard”.From Your Dashboard, click the Alerts button or the “New” button in the Your Alerts panel.In the Alerts workbench, choose which type of alert you want to create from the “Alert Type” buttons at the top left. To create a price alert, select “Price Alert” as the alert type.Add COST in the symbol box and set your price trigger.Choose how you wish to be notified and click the Save Alert button.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

New government data showed prices notching a monthly decline for the first time since April 2020, adding to an improving picture on inflation as the new year looms.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), one of two major readings on inflation, fell by 0.1% between October and November, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday — the first monthly decline in more than 3 1/2 years.

Combined with other recent data showing disposable personal income and consumer sentiment rising, the United States’ economy appears to be heading into 2024 on strong footing even as it cools down. That has boosted expectations for a potential “soft landing” that reins in inflation without triggering mass layoffs or a recession.

Lower gas prices and cheaper goods contributed to the modest decline in Friday’s PCE numbers. Because prices have largely continued to rise this year, they still clocked in 2.6% higher than in November 2022. But that’s an improvement from the PCE’s 5.5% yearly inflation rate back in January and 7.1% rate in June 2022.

Earlier this month, the Consumer Price Index, the other major inflation measure alongside the PCE index, showed annual inflation slowing to 3.1% in November, easing a bit from a 3.2% rate the month before.

“[T]he latest data confirm that the disinflation momentum is gathering pace,” EY senior economist Lydia Boussour said in a note, using the term for when price increases slow down — which is different from “deflation,” when prices outright drop.

As prices fell in November, American households’ capacity to spend increased, the BEA’s Friday report showed. Real disposable income, which adjusts for inflation, grew by 0.4% between October and November, after a summer of nearly no growth. 

A separate report that the University of Michigan released Friday showed consumer sentiment soaring 14% in December. The jump reversed four months of declines and reflects growing optimism among U.S. spenders, whose outlays account for about two-thirds of the economy.

“All age, income, education, geographic, and political identification groups saw gains in sentiment this month,” the University of Michigan survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, wrote in the report. “The index is now just shy of the midpoint between the pre-pandemic reading and the historic low reached in June 2022.”

That report came days after a different measure, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey, also showed Americans’ economic optimism surging this month.

“These trends are rooted in substantial improvements in how consumers view the trajectory of inflation,” Hsu said.

The battle isn’t over yet, though.

The Federal Reserve, which has raised interest rates to 22-year highs to slow the pace of price increases, has been encouraged by the progress but acknowledges there’s still work to do to get inflation down to its target of 2% on “core” PCE. That narrower measure excludes categories with more volatile prices, like energy and food — which can reflect swings due to geopolitical events and weather-related factors, respectively.

Core PCE clocked in at 3.2% in November, Friday’s BEA figures showed. Omair Sharif, the founder of Inflation Insights, cautioned that additional months of encouraging data would be needed to confirm that the Fed is on a clear path to its 2% goal.

“The more benign inflation data is certainly something to celebrate, but there is some turbulence ahead” in the first quarter of next year, he said in a note, that Fed officials will need to navigate before cutting rates.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Holiday sales rose this year and spending remained resilient during the shopping season even with Americans wrestling with higher prices in some areas and other financial worries, according to the latest measure.

Holiday sales from the beginning of November through Christmas Eve climbed 3.1%, a slower pace than the 7.6% increase from a year earlier, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks all kinds of payments including cash and debit cards.

This year’s sales are more in line with what is typical during the holiday season, however, after a surge in spending last year during the same period.

“This holiday season, the consumer showed up, spending in a deliberate manner” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist, Mastercard Economics Institute. “The economic backdrop remains favorable with healthy job creation and easing inflation pressures, empowering consumers to seek the goods and experiences they value most.”

People shop at Macy’s in New York on Saturday.Jeenah Moon / Getty Images

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits has remained very low by historical standards and employers are still having a hard time finding enough workers.

Still, sales growth was a bit lower than the 3.7% increase Mastercard SpendingPulse had projected in September. The data released Tuesday excludes the automotive industry and is not adjusted for inflation.

Clothing sales rose 2.4%, though jewelry sales fell 2% and electronics dipped roughly 0.4%. Online sales jumped 6.3 % from a year ago and in-person spending rose a modest 2.2%.

Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity and economists carefully monitor how Americans spend, particularly during the holidays, to gauge how they’re feeling financially.

There had been rising concern leading up to the holiday about the willingness of Americans to spend because of elevated prices for daily necessities at a time that savings have fallen and credit card delinquencies have ticked higher. In response, retailers pushed discounts on holiday merchandise earlier in October compared with a year ago. They also took a cautious approach on how much inventory to order after getting stung with overstuffed warehouses last year.

The latest report on the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, issued Friday, shows prices are easing. But costs remain still higher at restaurants, car shops, or for things like rent. Americans, however, unexpectedly picked up their spending from October to November as the holiday season kicked off, underscoring their spending power in the face of higher costs.

A broader picture of how Americans spent their money arrives next month when the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, releases its combined two-month statistics based on November-December sales figures from the Commerce Department.

The trade group expects holiday expects U.S. holiday sales will rise 3% to 4%. That’s lower than last year’s 5.4% growth but again, more consistent with typical holiday spending, which rose 3.6% between 2010 and 2019 before the pandemic skewered numbers.

Industry analysts will dissect the fourth-quarter financial performance from major retailers when they release that data in February.

The big concern: whether shoppers will pull back sharply after they get their bills in January. Nikki Baird, vice president of Aptos, a retail technology firm, noted customers, already weighed down by still high inflation and high interest rates, might pull back more because of the resumption of student loan payments that kicked in Oct. 1.

“I am worried about January,” she said. “I can see a bit of a last hurrah.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A slowdown — but no recession.

That’s the broad consensus for the economy among experts as we head into 2024. After a post-pandemic period that saw growth surpass most forecasts — but also spurred breakneck inflation — Americans should now expect a period of reduced business activity.

Yet while some economists believe the risk of a recession will remain, others think a ‘soft landing’ is more likely. That oft-talked-about scenario is understood as a combination of milder inflation alongside slow-and-steady employment growth.

‘There’s more hope for it [a soft landing] going into 2024 than there had been heading into 2023,’ said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.

The forecast among many economists for a recession in 2023 did not come to pass. Indeed, from a purely data-driven perspective, history may consider this year to be a good one, as low unemployment and rapidly declining inflation prevailed.

Today, the unemployment rate stands at 3.7% — little changed from the 3.5% seen one year ago. The annual rate of inflation, meanwhile, has fallen to 3.1%, less than half of the 7.1% rate seen in November 2022.

As a result, consumer confidence has grown. In the most recent survey by the Conference Board, a nonprofit business research organization, good economic vibes among consumers rocketed to the highest reading since July.

With additional context, each of these measures point to a slowdown on the horizon. The unemployment rate is up from the 3.4% low reached in April. And despite coming off the near double-digit highs in June 2022, inflation has not been able to break below 3%. In fact, it has bounced around in that 3% range for six consecutive months.

As for consumer confidence, it is still well below the post-pandemic high recorded in the spring of 2021.

Gus Faucher, senior vice president and chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, said the unemployment rate is likely to increase to around 4% as consumers pull back on spending, causing job growth to slow.

But while the risk of recession remains ‘elevated,’ it likely won’t occur unless there is a negative shock to the global economy, like wider conflict in the Middle East, where Israel is at war with Hamas fighters in Gaza, Faucher said.

‘It [a recession] is less likely now than it was three or six months ago, just because of the ongoing strength we’ve seen,’ Faucher added.

The economy has already slowed thanks to high interest rates, something consumers will continue to encounter in 2024, Bankrate’s McBride said. The Federal Reserve has kept rates elevated in its ongoing effort to wrestle inflation, and it isn’t likely to reduce them anytime soon.

Right now, credit card interest rates continue to average more than 20%. And even though mortgage rates are just starting to decline, the average 30-year interest rate still hovers around 6.5% to 7% — and even higher in certain faster-growing regions of the country. That range is about the same for car loans, too.

‘Interest rates took the elevator going up, but are going to take the stairs coming down,’ McBride said. While some Federal Reserve officials have begun to signal they would be open to cutting rates next year, McBride said they would come down ‘at a very modest rate.’

‘We’re going to be in a high-interest-rate environment for some time,’ he said.

Still, many consumers have weathered this environment, and will continue to do so next year, experts say.

In commentary released this week, Bank of America economists said ‘net wealth’ has grown for many Americans, thanks to higher home prices and a banner year for the stock market. This will continue to fuel a healthy rate of purchasing, they said.

‘Understanding the consumer continues to be more about ‘watch what I do and not what I say,” the economists wrote, suggesting that shoppers are still comfortable with spending money even as they express concerns about the economy.

The economists added that recent retail sales reports indicate holiday spending this year ‘was more favorable than many expected,’ while total hours worked have continued to expand.

Of course, this sunnier scenario of staying afloat financially without much difficulty does not apply to all Americans. The Bank of America economists note that when it comes to how savings and housing affordability have been distributed since the pandemic, many households are far from well-off.

And Bankrate’s McBride estimates that some 60% of Americans now live paycheck to paycheck.

Yet overall, ‘it appears the U.S. consumer is cooling, not retrenching,’ the Bank of America economists said.

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As the deadline for Congress to agree on funding most government programs and agencies in the upcoming fiscal year draws near, the Senate has passed only three of the 12 appropriations bills in a joint ‘minibus’ package, leaving crucial decisions pending after the holiday recess.

In November, the Senate voted to extend funding through September 2024 for the Agriculture, military construction and Veterans Affairs, and Transportation bills. No funding bills have been considered since, even though the Appropriations Committee approved the 12 spending bills with mostly bipartisan support. 

The House also passed a temporary extension of last year’s government funding levels, but with two separate deadlines: Passing appropriations bills for military construction and Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Energy and Water, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development by Jan. 19; the remaining eight appropriations bills must be worked out by Feb. 2.

The Senate adopted the same staggered deadlines for its spending bills.

Should lawmakers miss the initial Jan. 19 deadline, they’ll need a short-term continuing resolution (CR), essentially a temporary spending patch, to stretch funding until Sept. 30. Failure to do so would activate the Fiscal Responsibility Act, initiating a 1% across-the-board cut of more than $50 billion starting in April.

After the minibus vote, Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said, ‘The only way things get done in divided government is bipartisanship.’

‘The American people won’t support the futile exercise of passing partisan, extremist legislation that has no chance of becoming law, which is what the House is doing right now,’ he said at the time.

The House, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., approved an appropriations bill that significantly slashes the Environmental Protection Agency’s budget while pushing the Department of the Interior to ramp up energy and mineral production on public lands. However, Senate Democrats have signaled that the bill lacks sufficient support in the upper chamber to advance further.

‘Their appropriations bills are loaded with poison pills that they know are not going to be accepted in this chamber or by Democrats in their chamber,’ Schumer said on the floor last month.

Prior to the holiday recess, some GOP lawmakers expressed concern that no appropriation bills were being brought to the floor. So far, Schumer still has not scheduled any votes on appropriations-related bills when the upper chamber returns on Jan. 8.

Instead, the first vote will be whether lawmakers will confirm John A. Kazen of Texas to be U.S. district judge for the Southern District of Texas. The Senate spent the last few weeks before the holiday recess confirming several of Biden’s judicial nominees.

‘The only thing you can come to conclusion is his goal is not to pass spending bills but to have an omnibus,’ Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., told Fox News Digital in an interview before the holiday recess.

Other government agencies that still need funding in the queue include Homeland Security, Energy and Water, Labor and Education, and others. The Senate previously approved a $1.7 trillion omnibus bill for government programs throughout 2023.

Senators will have their work cut out for them when they return Jan. 8 because they still have to hash out a border security measure that will be ingested into the multibillion-dollar national supplemental security package that would send aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Fox News’ Elizabeth Elkind contributed to this report.

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